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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2018/dec/01/brexit-rocky-road-to-second-eu-referendum-peoples-vote
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| Version 0 | Version 1 |
|---|---|
| The rocky, risky road to a people’s vote | The rocky, risky road to a people’s vote |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Is there enough support in the Commons for a second referendum? | Is there enough support in the Commons for a second referendum? |
| Not at the moment, but should Theresa May lose the Commons vote over her Brexit deal and the Labour party try and fail to secure an election, it has been said that a second referendum is one of the options on the table. Should Labour embrace a second referendum, it would require support from rebel Tory MPs. Some have already backed it, but more would be needed – while some Labour MPs would refuse to back it. | Not at the moment, but should Theresa May lose the Commons vote over her Brexit deal and the Labour party try and fail to secure an election, it has been said that a second referendum is one of the options on the table. Should Labour embrace a second referendum, it would require support from rebel Tory MPs. Some have already backed it, but more would be needed – while some Labour MPs would refuse to back it. |
| Is there enough time? | Is there enough time? |
| Realistically the Brexit process would have to be suspended to accommodate another referendum. But given that it could be the only way to resolve the impasse, Brussels may be happy to do so. Experts think the whole process would take at least 24 weeks. | Realistically the Brexit process would have to be suspended to accommodate another referendum. But given that it could be the only way to resolve the impasse, Brussels may be happy to do so. Experts think the whole process would take at least 24 weeks. |
| What would the question be? | What would the question be? |
| The question on the ballot paper would be fiercely contested. Should it be Remain vs Theresa May’s deal, No Deal vs Remain, or No Deal vs May’s deal? Or should it include all three options? Campaigners for a people’s vote say only those options that are on offer should be on the ballot paper – so any deal that has no backing in Brussels should be dismissed. | |
| Who will decide the question? | Who will decide the question? |
| The Electoral Commission has a role in law to give advice and test the potential question, but ultimately the wording is decided by parliament. | The Electoral Commission has a role in law to give advice and test the potential question, but ultimately the wording is decided by parliament. |
| Who would be able to vote? | Who would be able to vote? |
| A row will also rage about the franchise, with those in support of a second referendum also keen to allow 16- and 17-year-olds to cast a vote this time round. This would be another parliamentary battle. | A row will also rage about the franchise, with those in support of a second referendum also keen to allow 16- and 17-year-olds to cast a vote this time round. This would be another parliamentary battle. |
| Won’t most newspapers back leaving again? | Won’t most newspapers back leaving again? |
| The Daily Mail – which aggressively supported Leave in 2016 – has changed stance under its new editor. The “saboteurs” it has in its sights are no longer Remainers but the hard Brexiters – though it is currently backing May’s deal, rather than Remain. | The Daily Mail – which aggressively supported Leave in 2016 – has changed stance under its new editor. The “saboteurs” it has in its sights are no longer Remainers but the hard Brexiters – though it is currently backing May’s deal, rather than Remain. |
| What has changed since the last vote? | What has changed since the last vote? |
| The geopolitical clouds have darkened. Banking on Donald Trump for a trade deal – the hard Brexiters’ plan A – has never looked less appealing. Immigration has become a less potent issue, while some of the complications and payoffs of Brexit have emerged since the summer of 2016. Prominent Leave campaigners have been discredited by controversies over campaign financing and breaches in electoral law. | The geopolitical clouds have darkened. Banking on Donald Trump for a trade deal – the hard Brexiters’ plan A – has never looked less appealing. Immigration has become a less potent issue, while some of the complications and payoffs of Brexit have emerged since the summer of 2016. Prominent Leave campaigners have been discredited by controversies over campaign financing and breaches in electoral law. |
| Why would the same voters deliver a different result? | Why would the same voters deliver a different result? |
| Large numbers of young people – more likely to be pro-EU – have turned 18 since 2016, and more of the older generation – more likely to be Eurosceptic – have passed away since the last vote. | |
| Would the next campaign be just as misleading? | Would the next campaign be just as misleading? |
| It would be ferociously fought, with claims of “betraying the will of the people” from many, and ministers have said it could put respect for democracy at risk. However, unlike in 2016, there’s an exit deal on the table against which claims of what is possible can be judged. | It would be ferociously fought, with claims of “betraying the will of the people” from many, and ministers have said it could put respect for democracy at risk. However, unlike in 2016, there’s an exit deal on the table against which claims of what is possible can be judged. |
| Who would win? | Who would win? |
| While there does appear to have been a small movement towards Remain since the 2016 referendum, pollsters are divided about how much people have changed their minds. It seems certain that the result would be close – and there is no guarantee Remain would win. | While there does appear to have been a small movement towards Remain since the 2016 referendum, pollsters are divided about how much people have changed their minds. It seems certain that the result would be close – and there is no guarantee Remain would win. |
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