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| Brexit: Hammond tells MPs UK cannot afford economic costs of no deal Brexit - Politics live | Brexit: Hammond tells MPs UK cannot afford economic costs of no deal Brexit - Politics live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| There was a flurry of excitement in the office a moment ago when Sky News went live to Downing Street, where the PM was about to appear. But there no resignation statement; she was just turning on the Christmas tree lights. | |
| Still, it’s got the Twitter commentariat going ... | |
| BREAKING New Brexit secretary appointed pic.twitter.com/b88W0KqT1F | |
| Only in UK could the PM have to come out on the steps of Downing Street and lead a chorus of 'O Come All Ye Faithful' while their govt is on the edge of falling apart - I wonder if Dexter, Amelie and Chloe who just helped her turn on the Christmas lights know what's going on... | |
| May leads “O Come All Ye Faithful” in Downing Street Which faithful? | |
| "Back the Deal and I will release these children" pic.twitter.com/FbXboVJ1JX | |
| Here is the Commons online Hansard for today’s debate. The speeches go up about three hours after they have been delivered, and currently it is up to Stewart Hosie. | |
| Sky’s Beth Rigby has more on Theresa May’s meeting with cabinet ministers early. | Sky’s Beth Rigby has more on Theresa May’s meeting with cabinet ministers early. |
| NEW: Source tells me cabinet agreed they can’t lose a vote by 200, but certainly no agreement on pulling the vote. Told a bit of general dismay that PM didn’t fully put her cards on the table (but she never does) | NEW: Source tells me cabinet agreed they can’t lose a vote by 200, but certainly no agreement on pulling the vote. Told a bit of general dismay that PM didn’t fully put her cards on the table (but she never does) |
| Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee, has told BBC’s Newsnight that, unless Theresa May can provide more clarity on how the UK can leave the backstop, the Brexit vote should be postponed. | Sir Graham Brady, chairman of the Conservative backbench 1922 Committee, has told BBC’s Newsnight that, unless Theresa May can provide more clarity on how the UK can leave the backstop, the Brexit vote should be postponed. |
| Breaking: Sir Graham Brady tells me he would welcome the deferral by Theresa May of her #brexit meaningful vote unless she can provide clarity in coming days on how UK could leave the Northern Ireland backstop. Full interview on @BBCNewsnight | Breaking: Sir Graham Brady tells me he would welcome the deferral by Theresa May of her #brexit meaningful vote unless she can provide clarity in coming days on how UK could leave the Northern Ireland backstop. Full interview on @BBCNewsnight |
| Sir Graham Brady, chairman of 1922 committee, told me: I think the most important thing is to have clarity about how we might remove ourselves from a backstop, Northern Ireland protocol situation if we were to enter into one in the future.... | Sir Graham Brady, chairman of 1922 committee, told me: I think the most important thing is to have clarity about how we might remove ourselves from a backstop, Northern Ireland protocol situation if we were to enter into one in the future.... |
| And more from Sir Graham: It’s having the answer to that question of substance that is most important, not the timing. So, if that question can be answered in the course of the next few days then all well and good.... | And more from Sir Graham: It’s having the answer to that question of substance that is most important, not the timing. So, if that question can be answered in the course of the next few days then all well and good.... |
| Finally from Sir Graham: If it can’t then I certainly would welcome the vote being deferred until such time as we can answer that question. | Finally from Sir Graham: If it can’t then I certainly would welcome the vote being deferred until such time as we can answer that question. |
| Sir Graham Brady tells @nicholaswatt he “would welcome the vote being deferred”. Jitters among Conservative MPs about losing Tuesday’s Brexit deal vote coming to the fore? #Newsnight pic.twitter.com/5DNxEBPjSF | Sir Graham Brady tells @nicholaswatt he “would welcome the vote being deferred”. Jitters among Conservative MPs about losing Tuesday’s Brexit deal vote coming to the fore? #Newsnight pic.twitter.com/5DNxEBPjSF |
| A few minutes ago in the Commons Sir Christopher Chope, a Tory Brexiter, confirmed that he would vote against Theresa May’s deal. Ironically his speech came only a few hours after YouGov released some new polling suggesting that Chope’s constituency, Christchurch, is one of only two in the Great Britain where voters favour May’s deal over no deal, or staying in the EU. | A few minutes ago in the Commons Sir Christopher Chope, a Tory Brexiter, confirmed that he would vote against Theresa May’s deal. Ironically his speech came only a few hours after YouGov released some new polling suggesting that Chope’s constituency, Christchurch, is one of only two in the Great Britain where voters favour May’s deal over no deal, or staying in the EU. |
| There have been a lot of Brexit opinion polls, but this one is probably more interesting than most because a) it has a huge sample size (more than 20,000 Britons were polled) and b) it used MRP (multi-level regression and poststratification), a technique that involves using large amounts of demographic data to predict how voters will behave in particular constituencies. YouGov used MRP before the 2017 general election to predict a hung parliament when conventional polling had the Tories on course for a big victory. | There have been a lot of Brexit opinion polls, but this one is probably more interesting than most because a) it has a huge sample size (more than 20,000 Britons were polled) and b) it used MRP (multi-level regression and poststratification), a technique that involves using large amounts of demographic data to predict how voters will behave in particular constituencies. YouGov used MRP before the 2017 general election to predict a hung parliament when conventional polling had the Tories on course for a big victory. |
| Among other things, the YouGov research shows that, if there is going to be a second referendum with multiple options, there will be an almighty row about what election system should be used. People were asked if they wanted May’s deal, a no deal Brexit, or no Brexit at all. Staying in the EU had the support of 46% of respondents, and was the first preference option in 600 constituencies. | Among other things, the YouGov research shows that, if there is going to be a second referendum with multiple options, there will be an almighty row about what election system should be used. People were asked if they wanted May’s deal, a no deal Brexit, or no Brexit at all. Staying in the EU had the support of 46% of respondents, and was the first preference option in 600 constituencies. |
| But, using the Condorcet method (a system that ranks multiple options by testing them all out against each other one-to-one), you get a very different result. This system tends to favour the least unacceptable option, and May’s deal wins in most constituencies. | But, using the Condorcet method (a system that ranks multiple options by testing them all out against each other one-to-one), you get a very different result. This system tends to favour the least unacceptable option, and May’s deal wins in most constituencies. |
| The survey also finds that, in a straight contest between no deal and May’s deal, May’s deal would win comfortable. But remain versus no deal, and remain versus May’s deal, are both fairly evenly matched. | The survey also finds that, in a straight contest between no deal and May’s deal, May’s deal would win comfortable. But remain versus no deal, and remain versus May’s deal, are both fairly evenly matched. |
| Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, Andrea Leadsom and Liam Fox left Number 10 after their meeting with the PM (see 2.18pm) without answering reporters’ questions about the vote next week, the Press Association reports. | Michael Gove, Amber Rudd, Andrea Leadsom and Liam Fox left Number 10 after their meeting with the PM (see 2.18pm) without answering reporters’ questions about the vote next week, the Press Association reports. |
| This is from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn. | This is from the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn. |
| "I served in the Cameron Government, and then May's, I've been a member of the Conservative Party for two decades, and I voted for Brexit because I passionately believed in it. I loved all three, and now all three are in ruin. I'm very depressed". A senior Tory figure. | "I served in the Cameron Government, and then May's, I've been a member of the Conservative Party for two decades, and I voted for Brexit because I passionately believed in it. I loved all three, and now all three are in ruin. I'm very depressed". A senior Tory figure. |
| Channel 4 has announced that broadcast a Brexit debate on Sunday. It will feature “four high profile politicians” (as yet unnamed) “reflecting the main divisions in the House of Commons on this issue, Theresa May’s Deal, a softer Brexit, a harder Brexit and People’s Vote/Remain”. | Channel 4 has announced that broadcast a Brexit debate on Sunday. It will feature “four high profile politicians” (as yet unnamed) “reflecting the main divisions in the House of Commons on this issue, Theresa May’s Deal, a softer Brexit, a harder Brexit and People’s Vote/Remain”. |
| In the Commons debate Antoinette Sandbach, a Conservative, has said that she will vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. A pro-European, she was one of the 12 Tories who defied the party whip on the “meaningful vote” issue in December last year, triggering May’s first Commons defeat on Brexit. But she said he would back the deal because it honoured the referendum result. “It may not be perfect, but it is a good deal,” she said. | In the Commons debate Antoinette Sandbach, a Conservative, has said that she will vote for Theresa May’s Brexit deal. A pro-European, she was one of the 12 Tories who defied the party whip on the “meaningful vote” issue in December last year, triggering May’s first Commons defeat on Brexit. But she said he would back the deal because it honoured the referendum result. “It may not be perfect, but it is a good deal,” she said. |
| Tony Blair has been speaking at a press gallery lunch. As prime minister, he was notorious for being lukewarm about parliament as an institution. He said as much in his final PMQs. But, in his speech to journalists, he said that parliament was now operating “like a shadow government” over Brexit, and that he was “heartily thankful”. | Tony Blair has been speaking at a press gallery lunch. As prime minister, he was notorious for being lukewarm about parliament as an institution. He said as much in his final PMQs. But, in his speech to journalists, he said that parliament was now operating “like a shadow government” over Brexit, and that he was “heartily thankful”. |
| For the first time in my political memory, parliament is operating like a shadow government. It has taken effective charge of the process surrounding Brexit through the Grieve amendment, ensuring that all options can be voted upon. It has asserted itself with a vigour and clarity of purpose frankly missing from the actual government. It is articulating the different outcomes with a blatant disregard for the government mantra that it is this deal or no deal. | For the first time in my political memory, parliament is operating like a shadow government. It has taken effective charge of the process surrounding Brexit through the Grieve amendment, ensuring that all options can be voted upon. It has asserted itself with a vigour and clarity of purpose frankly missing from the actual government. It is articulating the different outcomes with a blatant disregard for the government mantra that it is this deal or no deal. |
| I am heartily thankful that parliament is doing so. There is as much leadership on the back benches as on the front. At a moment of supreme importance for the nation, with so much at stake and such bitter divisions in the population, they’re doing what I always hoped they would do: behave like leaders, recognising that at this time, party whips can’t matter more than genuine appreciation of where the national interest lies. | I am heartily thankful that parliament is doing so. There is as much leadership on the back benches as on the front. At a moment of supreme importance for the nation, with so much at stake and such bitter divisions in the population, they’re doing what I always hoped they would do: behave like leaders, recognising that at this time, party whips can’t matter more than genuine appreciation of where the national interest lies. |
| He also included a self-deprecatory “third way” joke. | He also included a self-deprecatory “third way” joke. |
| As I have discovered every time I address groups of people on Brexit, on one thing the nation is united: do Brexit; or don’t; but no half in and half out. This is a sentiment which unites many leavers and remainers. It is a belief that Britain should determine its path to the future with confidence one way or another, not remain lost in nervous indecision. There is no acceptable third way. | As I have discovered every time I address groups of people on Brexit, on one thing the nation is united: do Brexit; or don’t; but no half in and half out. This is a sentiment which unites many leavers and remainers. It is a belief that Britain should determine its path to the future with confidence one way or another, not remain lost in nervous indecision. There is no acceptable third way. |
| Tony Blair, speaking to the parliamentary press gallery (& guests, including Jacob Rees-Mogg) pic.twitter.com/Cm3AJUWfNI | Tony Blair, speaking to the parliamentary press gallery (& guests, including Jacob Rees-Mogg) pic.twitter.com/Cm3AJUWfNI |
| Mark Drakeford has been elected as the new Welsh Labour leader, replacing Carwyn Jones, ITV’s Adrian Masters reports. | Mark Drakeford has been elected as the new Welsh Labour leader, replacing Carwyn Jones, ITV’s Adrian Masters reports. |
| Welsh Labour leadership result: round 1 pic.twitter.com/ww3dI79CSX | Welsh Labour leadership result: round 1 pic.twitter.com/ww3dI79CSX |
| Welsh Labour leadership result round 2 Mark Drakeford wins. pic.twitter.com/Dr4vf0k12M | Welsh Labour leadership result round 2 Mark Drakeford wins. pic.twitter.com/Dr4vf0k12M |
| Mark Drakeford has been the favourite all along but his victory was much closer than expected. Vaughan Gething won a strong second place despite struggling with nominations, union support &c. | Mark Drakeford has been the favourite all along but his victory was much closer than expected. Vaughan Gething won a strong second place despite struggling with nominations, union support &c. |
| The Lib Dem MP Stephen Lloyd has resigned the party whip because he is backing Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the party has announced. | The Lib Dem MP Stephen Lloyd has resigned the party whip because he is backing Theresa May’s Brexit deal, the party has announced. |
| A party spokesman said: | A party spokesman said: |
| We respect what we know was a difficult decision for Stephen ahead of next week’s vote and are sorry to see him go. Liberal Democrats are clear that we will be voting against Theresa May’s deal. | We respect what we know was a difficult decision for Stephen ahead of next week’s vote and are sorry to see him go. Liberal Democrats are clear that we will be voting against Theresa May’s deal. |
| The Liberal Democrats have campaigned for an exit from Brexit and a People’s Vote where people can choose to remain in the European Union since the referendum was held. | The Liberal Democrats have campaigned for an exit from Brexit and a People’s Vote where people can choose to remain in the European Union since the referendum was held. |
| We will continue to fight for this in parliament. | We will continue to fight for this in parliament. |
| Ben Weisz from BBC Sussex has more. | Ben Weisz from BBC Sussex has more. |
| BREAKING: Eastbourne MP @StephenLloydEBN to sit as an independent - he resigns the Lib Dem whip, saying that controversy over his stance on the Brexit deal was too much of a distraction for the Party. | BREAKING: Eastbourne MP @StephenLloydEBN to sit as an independent - he resigns the Lib Dem whip, saying that controversy over his stance on the Brexit deal was too much of a distraction for the Party. |
| He tells me he wasn't asked to quit by @vincecable or anyone else in the Lib Dems - but that choosing to quit was the "honourable thing". He'll remain a card-carrying Lib Dem member. | He tells me he wasn't asked to quit by @vincecable or anyone else in the Lib Dems - but that choosing to quit was the "honourable thing". He'll remain a card-carrying Lib Dem member. |
| Reminder - he is a Remainer, but promised Leave-voting Eastbourne he'd back whatever Brexit deal the PM came back with at the 2017 Election all the same. The Party knew this. I asked @timfarron about it when he visited Lewes that summer. They have not asked him to step down. | Reminder - he is a Remainer, but promised Leave-voting Eastbourne he'd back whatever Brexit deal the PM came back with at the 2017 Election all the same. The Party knew this. I asked @timfarron about it when he visited Lewes that summer. They have not asked him to step down. |
| He told me: “I hoped that that would be sustainable, but to be honest when it went nationwide, through one of your excellent tweets...a lot of pressure was put on @vincecable and @amcarmichaelMP my chief whip, that they must do something about it.” | He told me: “I hoped that that would be sustainable, but to be honest when it went nationwide, through one of your excellent tweets...a lot of pressure was put on @vincecable and @amcarmichaelMP my chief whip, that they must do something about it.” |
| Will he return to the Parliamentary Lib Dem Party? "Oh good lord! Absolutely! I mean, it's not in my hands..." | Will he return to the Parliamentary Lib Dem Party? "Oh good lord! Absolutely! I mean, it's not in my hands..." |
| The Eastbourne Herald has a full story here. | The Eastbourne Herald has a full story here. |
| The Lib Dems only have, or had, 12 MPs. So Vince Cable has lost 8.3% of his party. That would be equivalent to Theresa May losing 26 MPs, or Jeremy Corbyn losing 21 of his. | The Lib Dems only have, or had, 12 MPs. So Vince Cable has lost 8.3% of his party. That would be equivalent to Theresa May losing 26 MPs, or Jeremy Corbyn losing 21 of his. |