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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/business/live/2018/dec/07/markets-rebound-ftse-asia-wall-street-huawei-us-jobs-report-business-live
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| Markets rebound as US jobs report misses forecasts – business live | Markets rebound as US jobs report misses forecasts – business live |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Marina Mensah-Afoakwah, senior economist at the CEBR, suspects that the US Federal Reserve will vote to raise interest rates later this month. | |
| While today’s figures in isolation may not give a reason for concern, the context in which they have arisen could cause some anxiety. | |
| If the weak global outlook persists amid current trade tensions, future job growth in the US may continue to disappoint.” | |
| She also sent over this chart, showing how the US unemployment rate has fallen steadily to just 3.7%, the lowest since 1969. | |
| The Dow is pushing higher.... now up 120 points, as New York investors recover their nerve. But will it last?... | |
| So far, so calm..... | |
| Stocks mostly higher in early trading after weaker-than-expected jobs report https://t.co/aaSJKDTQda pic.twitter.com/aXwPQE2rf7 | |
| This time yesterday, Wall Street was falling heavily as global markets were riled by the arrest of Huawei’s CFO. | |
| Today things are calmer, thanks to the jobs report. | |
| The Dow has crept up by 18 points, or 0.07% to 24,966. | |
| That’s a teensy tiny move, but the significant point is that the New York stock exchange hasn’t fallen back towards yesterday’s lows (the Dow fell 780 points, but only closed 79 points lower). | |
| Today’s jobs report shows that the US economy is slowing, but not drastically, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. | Today’s jobs report shows that the US economy is slowing, but not drastically, says Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics. |
| He’s written a thorough note on November’s Non-Farm Payroll....and here it is: | He’s written a thorough note on November’s Non-Farm Payroll....and here it is: |
| The slightly more modest 155,000 gain in payroll employment in November may not go down well in markets given the heightened nervousness in recent months, but this is still a solid gain that suggests economic growth is gradually slowing back towards its potential pace. | The slightly more modest 155,000 gain in payroll employment in November may not go down well in markets given the heightened nervousness in recent months, but this is still a solid gain that suggests economic growth is gradually slowing back towards its potential pace. |
| There is nothing here to suggest the economy is suffering a more sudden downturn. | There is nothing here to suggest the economy is suffering a more sudden downturn. |
| Admittedly, 155,000 was below the consensus forecast at 200,000 and the six-month average, which was slightly above 200,000. But gains of that magnitude should still be enough to keep the unemployment rate grinding lower. Looking at the employment breakdown, manufacturing increased by a healthy 27,000, retail added 18,000 and transportation added 25,000 (including 10,000 couriers ahead of the Holiday season). Leisure & hospitality added only 15,000, however, and education & health added only 34,000. Both below normal. State governments also shed 13,000 employees. | Admittedly, 155,000 was below the consensus forecast at 200,000 and the six-month average, which was slightly above 200,000. But gains of that magnitude should still be enough to keep the unemployment rate grinding lower. Looking at the employment breakdown, manufacturing increased by a healthy 27,000, retail added 18,000 and transportation added 25,000 (including 10,000 couriers ahead of the Holiday season). Leisure & hospitality added only 15,000, however, and education & health added only 34,000. Both below normal. State governments also shed 13,000 employees. |
| The unemployment rate was unchanged at only 3.7% last month, as a 233,000 gain in the household survey measure of employment more than offset a 133,000 increase in the labour force. That said, the broader U6 measure of unemployment did rebound to 7.6%, from 7.4%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% m/m in November, with the annual growth rate unchanged at 3.1%. | The unemployment rate was unchanged at only 3.7% last month, as a 233,000 gain in the household survey measure of employment more than offset a 133,000 increase in the labour force. That said, the broader U6 measure of unemployment did rebound to 7.6%, from 7.4%. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.2% m/m in November, with the annual growth rate unchanged at 3.1%. |
| Overall, employment growth may be fading a little from the unsustainable pace in the first half of this year, but there is nothing here to unduly worry the Fed or prevent it from hiking interest rates at this month’s FOMC meeting. | Overall, employment growth may be fading a little from the unsustainable pace in the first half of this year, but there is nothing here to unduly worry the Fed or prevent it from hiking interest rates at this month’s FOMC meeting. |
| The European stock markets are all pushing higher, clawing back more of yesterday’s losses. | The European stock markets are all pushing higher, clawing back more of yesterday’s losses. |
| Britain’s FTSE 100 is leading the way, up almost 2%, with solid gains on Germany’s DAX (0.8%) and France’s CAC (+1.5%). | Britain’s FTSE 100 is leading the way, up almost 2%, with solid gains on Germany’s DAX (0.8%) and France’s CAC (+1.5%). |
| This seems to confirm that traders are relieved that the US economy is still creating jobs, but not so rapidly to force several interest rate hikes in 2019. | This seems to confirm that traders are relieved that the US economy is still creating jobs, but not so rapidly to force several interest rate hikes in 2019. |
| Matt Weller of Faraday Investment Research says: | Matt Weller of Faraday Investment Research says: |
| See my Top 3 Takeaways from today's #NFP report: pic.twitter.com/waPFOGJ2Cj | See my Top 3 Takeaways from today's #NFP report: pic.twitter.com/waPFOGJ2Cj |
| America created tens of thousands more jobs in transportation and warehousing last month, as online shopping continued to expand. | America created tens of thousands more jobs in transportation and warehousing last month, as online shopping continued to expand. |
| Today’s non-farm payroll report shows that: | Today’s non-farm payroll report shows that: |
| Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 25,000 in November | Employment in transportation and warehousing rose by 25,000 in November |
| Job gains occurred in couriers and messengers (+10,000) and in warehousing and storage (+6,000). Over the year, transportation and warehousing has added 192,000 jobs. | Job gains occurred in couriers and messengers (+10,000) and in warehousing and storage (+6,000). Over the year, transportation and warehousing has added 192,000 jobs. |
| America’s service sector created the bulk of the new jobs last month, hiring around 132,000 new workers. | America’s service sector created the bulk of the new jobs last month, hiring around 132,000 new workers. |
| Factories also expanded their workforces, with 27,000 new hires. | Factories also expanded their workforces, with 27,000 new hires. |
| Lots of talk about manufacturing slowdown given GM, tariff concerns, etc. But no sign of that in jobs report: +27k manufacturing jobs in November, continuing strong run. (Slight decline in auto manufacturing jobs, though.) pic.twitter.com/Vb4VpA7Hgb | Lots of talk about manufacturing slowdown given GM, tariff concerns, etc. But no sign of that in jobs report: +27k manufacturing jobs in November, continuing strong run. (Slight decline in auto manufacturing jobs, though.) pic.twitter.com/Vb4VpA7Hgb |
| Economics professor Justin Wolfers reckons today’s jobs report will reassure the Federal Reserve that they have the situation under control. | Economics professor Justin Wolfers reckons today’s jobs report will reassure the Federal Reserve that they have the situation under control. |
| With jobs still being created, and wages rising modestly, there’s little sign that the economy is over-heating. | With jobs still being created, and wages rising modestly, there’s little sign that the economy is over-heating. |
| Payrolls growth slows a little, but to a more sustainable +155k in November. The unemployment rate remains steady at 3.7%. Revisions suggest the two previous months weren't quite as strong.While some may be disappointed, this pace of expansion is more likely to be sustainable. | Payrolls growth slows a little, but to a more sustainable +155k in November. The unemployment rate remains steady at 3.7%. Revisions suggest the two previous months weren't quite as strong.While some may be disappointed, this pace of expansion is more likely to be sustainable. |
| Hourly earnings rose by +0.2% this month, and are up by 3.1% over the year. That's still not enough wage pressure to seriously threaten the Fed's inflation target, but we're getting closer. | Hourly earnings rose by +0.2% this month, and are up by 3.1% over the year. That's still not enough wage pressure to seriously threaten the Fed's inflation target, but we're getting closer. |
| This is the sort of jobs report that manages to both calm folks at the Fed a bit -- no, we're not right on the cusp of overheating -- while also continuing the narrative of robust ongoing jobs growth that will, if it continues, keep bringing unemployment down. | This is the sort of jobs report that manages to both calm folks at the Fed a bit -- no, we're not right on the cusp of overheating -- while also continuing the narrative of robust ongoing jobs growth that will, if it continues, keep bringing unemployment down. |
| This jobs report doesn’t have much cheer for US workers, although the unemployment rate remained at just 3.7%. | This jobs report doesn’t have much cheer for US workers, although the unemployment rate remained at just 3.7%. |
| Bad news IS good news for the markets! | Bad news IS good news for the markets! |
| The UK’s FTSE is now up by 112 points, or 1.7%, close to its highest point of the day. | The UK’s FTSE is now up by 112 points, or 1.7%, close to its highest point of the day. |
| Wall Street future, which has been down earlier, are recovering too. | Wall Street future, which has been down earlier, are recovering too. |
| Dow futures rise to pre-market session high despite jobs report missing expectations https://t.co/aaSJKDTQda pic.twitter.com/4rrjTvPQFu | Dow futures rise to pre-market session high despite jobs report missing expectations https://t.co/aaSJKDTQda pic.twitter.com/4rrjTvPQFu |
| More disappointment! US wages only grew by 0.2% month-on-month in November, dashing hopes of a 0.3% rise. | More disappointment! US wages only grew by 0.2% month-on-month in November, dashing hopes of a 0.3% rise. |
| That’s a blow to US families in the run-up to the festive season. | That’s a blow to US families in the run-up to the festive season. |
| Annual wage growth was 3.1%, the same as in October. | Annual wage growth was 3.1%, the same as in October. |
| BREAKING: The US economy created 155,000 new jobs last month, fewer than the 200,000 which Wall Street had expected. | BREAKING: The US economy created 155,000 new jobs last month, fewer than the 200,000 which Wall Street had expected. |
| And in another blow, October’s figures was revised down to 237,000, from a first estimate of 250,000. | And in another blow, October’s figures was revised down to 237,000, from a first estimate of 250,000. |
| That suggests the labor market isn’t as strong as hoped - which will lower the pressure to raise US interest rates. | That suggests the labor market isn’t as strong as hoped - which will lower the pressure to raise US interest rates. |
| More to follow..... | More to follow..... |
| Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, predicts that shares will fall if the US jobs report beats forecasts....and rise if it misses. | Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies, predicts that shares will fall if the US jobs report beats forecasts....and rise if it misses. |
| As he puts it on Bloomberg TV: | As he puts it on Bloomberg TV: |
| Good equals bad, and bad equals good. | Good equals bad, and bad equals good. |
| That’s because the markets will assume that the US Federal Reserve will step in to support the economy, if required. | That’s because the markets will assume that the US Federal Reserve will step in to support the economy, if required. |
| We’ll find out if he’s right very soon! | We’ll find out if he’s right very soon! |
| Word from the White House.... | Word from the White House.... |
| China talks are going very well! | China talks are going very well! |
| As City traders grab a quick sandwich before the US jobs report (oh the glamour!), here’s a look at the markets. | As City traders grab a quick sandwich before the US jobs report (oh the glamour!), here’s a look at the markets. |
| FTSE 100: Up 80 points at 6784, a gain of 1.2% | FTSE 100: Up 80 points at 6784, a gain of 1.2% |
| German DAX: Up 49 points at 10,860, a gain of 0.4% | German DAX: Up 49 points at 10,860, a gain of 0.4% |
| French CAC: Up 61 points at 4,842, a gain of 1.3% | French CAC: Up 61 points at 4,842, a gain of 1.3% |
| Definitely a recovery, but a relatively muted one given European markets shed more than 3% on Thurday. | Definitely a recovery, but a relatively muted one given European markets shed more than 3% on Thurday. |