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| Pound hits 20-month low against US dollar after Brexit vote postponed – business live | |
| (35 minutes later) | |
| Theresa May has insisted several times this afternoon that she will not countenance a People’s Vote on her withdrawal deal. | |
| Instead, she insists, parliamentarians need to implement the 2016 vote -- despite some MPs reporting that constituents have urged them to reject her deal. | |
| Since May’s deal was announced I’ve received over 600 letters/emails about Brexit:🥇People's Vote w/ Remain (85%)🥈Support Theresa May’s deal (8%)🥉Pro-brexit/No deal (5%)🏅Other (Norway/Canada etc.) (2%) | |
| Charles Hepworth, investment director at wealth manager GAM, suspects that Britain could end up holding another referendum, to end the current impasse. | |
| PM May is going back to Brussels on Thursday for an EU council meeting and the hope from her side is that further cosmetic concessions can be agreed around the controversial backstop, but in our view that equation does not quite seem to balance given the EU has already announced that it will not engage the UK government on further deal amendments. | |
| “Sterling has once again come under selling pressure, reflecting the ongoing Brexit paralysis. We believe delaying the vote is perhaps just another step towards a second referendum (which clearly cannot take place before the March deadline, but possibly could happen within perhaps six months assuming the March deadline is further extended) as we cannot see another way for this purgatory that the UK inadvertently voted for to end.” | |
| Rather than a crunch vote on Tuesday, the markets now face days of uncertainty, or quite possibly several weeks. | |
| Theresa May is refusing to say when the delayed Meaningful Vote will take place, only that it will be held once she has secured new reassurances on the backstop. | |
| Hang on. What happens if the Govt never brings this deal back for a vote at all? They can’t just avoid a vote on no deal because they pulled the vote in the middle of the debate on this deal! As I was typing @JustineGreening just asked q on this but got no clear answer. https://t.co/PD0xiOMaug | |
| PM making our country look chaotic & ridiculous. 5hrs ago Ministers & No10 were insisting vote was going ahead. Now we don’t know when or even what PM wants it to be on. How can there be trust & credibility in this process if no one can trust anything Ministers are told to say? pic.twitter.com/8TU45QdKB4 | |
| Over the past 24 hours the pound has been comfortably the worst-performing major currency in the world #Brexit pic.twitter.com/9dto4fCHUW | |
| The cost of insuring UK government debt against default has jumped to its highest level since the EU referendum, in another sign that investors are getting jittery. | |
| UK sovereign 5Y CDS now quoted at 38bps, widest level since the post-referendum days of July 2016 | |
| It's been a roller-coaster week for sterling but the past half hour or so takes the biscuit. Here's the pound vs the US dollar over the past week or so: pic.twitter.com/sAobl18geM | |
| The pound remains on track for one of its worst days since the 2016 referendum. | The pound remains on track for one of its worst days since the 2016 referendum. |
| It’s recovering, slightly, from its lowest point today -- but still down 1.6 cents at $1.256. | It’s recovering, slightly, from its lowest point today -- but still down 1.6 cents at $1.256. |
| Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, says the possibility that the prime minister is ousted from Downing Street is pulling sterling lower. | Lukman Otunuga, research analyst at FXTM, says the possibility that the prime minister is ousted from Downing Street is pulling sterling lower. |
| It is not just the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit that investors are factoring into their valuations of the British Pound. | It is not just the likelihood of a no-deal Brexit that investors are factoring into their valuations of the British Pound. |
| Investors are also re-pricing into the market the increased likelihood that Theresa May will once again be at threat to expectations of a leadership challenge. Another emerging danger is that the decision taken today raises the threat level that the UK is falling into a disorderly Brexit trap. | Investors are also re-pricing into the market the increased likelihood that Theresa May will once again be at threat to expectations of a leadership challenge. Another emerging danger is that the decision taken today raises the threat level that the UK is falling into a disorderly Brexit trap. |
| The news that Theresa May has kicked the Brexit vote down the parliamentary corridors will have disappointed many British business leaders. | The news that Theresa May has kicked the Brexit vote down the parliamentary corridors will have disappointed many British business leaders. |
| After two and a half years of uncertainty, UK PLC really wants Brexit sorted out. Many also fear a no-deal Brexit, especially those which haven’t (or can’t) drawn up contingency plans to protect themselves. | After two and a half years of uncertainty, UK PLC really wants Brexit sorted out. Many also fear a no-deal Brexit, especially those which haven’t (or can’t) drawn up contingency plans to protect themselves. |
| Stephen Martin, Director General of the Institute of Directors, says firms needs to know what will happen if the UK crashes out of the EU on 29 March: | Stephen Martin, Director General of the Institute of Directors, says firms needs to know what will happen if the UK crashes out of the EU on 29 March: |
| “Avoiding no deal continues to be the main priority for our members but, with Parliament seemingly gridlocked, the Government must also be much clearer about its own contingency plans, even if only regarding the areas they can control, such as imports. | “Avoiding no deal continues to be the main priority for our members but, with Parliament seemingly gridlocked, the Government must also be much clearer about its own contingency plans, even if only regarding the areas they can control, such as imports. |
| Many companies are still in the dark about what HMRC and border agencies would require the day after Brexit if there is no transition period. Partly because of a lack of information, only 14% of IoD members say they are fully prepared to manage no-deal, highlighting the scale of the challenge if a withdrawal agreement isn’t ratified.” | Many companies are still in the dark about what HMRC and border agencies would require the day after Brexit if there is no transition period. Partly because of a lack of information, only 14% of IoD members say they are fully prepared to manage no-deal, highlighting the scale of the challenge if a withdrawal agreement isn’t ratified.” |
| Lee McDarby, Corporate IP Managing Director at foreign exchange firm moneycorp, says Theresa May’s decision to delay the Brexit vote will hurt the economy: | Lee McDarby, Corporate IP Managing Director at foreign exchange firm moneycorp, says Theresa May’s decision to delay the Brexit vote will hurt the economy: |
| “Over the course of the afternoon we’ve seen wild swings in the value of Sterling, including a 20 month low against the dollar. | “Over the course of the afternoon we’ve seen wild swings in the value of Sterling, including a 20 month low against the dollar. |
| Every time the Prime Minister kicks the can down the road, the uncertainty dents British business plans for 2019. Right now it seems the markets are just looking for some certainty on the future of the UK, regardless of its shape or form.” | Every time the Prime Minister kicks the can down the road, the uncertainty dents British business plans for 2019. Right now it seems the markets are just looking for some certainty on the future of the UK, regardless of its shape or form.” |
| The pound’s thumping today suggest that investors see a growing danger that the UK crashes out of the EU at the end of March, without a transition deal. | The pound’s thumping today suggest that investors see a growing danger that the UK crashes out of the EU at the end of March, without a transition deal. |
| But a sterling crisis might encourage MPs to back Theresa May’s deal, despite all their misgivings. | But a sterling crisis might encourage MPs to back Theresa May’s deal, despite all their misgivings. |
| Silvia Dall’Angelo, senior economist at Hermes Investment Management, believes all options are still on the table -- from crashing out without a deal, to not leaving at all. | Silvia Dall’Angelo, senior economist at Hermes Investment Management, believes all options are still on the table -- from crashing out without a deal, to not leaving at all. |
| In our – admittedly low confidence – base case, stress in financial markets and pressure from businesses should lead to a last-minute approval of the deal in Parliament. | In our – admittedly low confidence – base case, stress in financial markets and pressure from businesses should lead to a last-minute approval of the deal in Parliament. |
| However, the situation is fluid and other outcomes carry significant probabilities. | However, the situation is fluid and other outcomes carry significant probabilities. |
| Prime Minister May highlighted the government would step up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, but a second referendum, a soft Brexit (Norway-style) or a no-Brexit scenarios seem more realistic, especially following the European Court of Justice’s ruling this morning that the UK can unilaterally reverse Article 50. | Prime Minister May highlighted the government would step up preparations for a no-deal Brexit, but a second referendum, a soft Brexit (Norway-style) or a no-Brexit scenarios seem more realistic, especially following the European Court of Justice’s ruling this morning that the UK can unilaterally reverse Article 50. |
| The pound has fallen further against the euro too. Now down 1.4%, or one and a half eurocents, at €1.1014. | The pound has fallen further against the euro too. Now down 1.4%, or one and a half eurocents, at €1.1014. |
| That means the euro is worth 90.7p, its strongest position since late August. This makes imports from Europe more expensive, and UK exports more competitive. | That means the euro is worth 90.7p, its strongest position since late August. This makes imports from Europe more expensive, and UK exports more competitive. |
| So much for Theresa May’s speech being priced in! This chart shows how sterling has taken a deeper bath, as MP after MP criticise the PM’s handling of the Brexit negotiations. | So much for Theresa May’s speech being priced in! This chart shows how sterling has taken a deeper bath, as MP after MP criticise the PM’s handling of the Brexit negotiations. |
| Boom! The pound is in freefall.....dropping to a new 20-month low of $1.2555 against the US dollar. | Boom! The pound is in freefall.....dropping to a new 20-month low of $1.2555 against the US dollar. |
| That’s a loss of 1.4%, down 1.8 cents today. | That’s a loss of 1.4%, down 1.8 cents today. |
| The latest drop comes as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn responds to Theresa May. | The latest drop comes as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn responds to Theresa May. |
| Corbyn lashes the government for being in “complete disarray”, and argues that the House of Commons should set the mandate for the PM’s new talks with the EU. | Corbyn lashes the government for being in “complete disarray”, and argues that the House of Commons should set the mandate for the PM’s new talks with the EU. |
| Corbyn demanding that May allows parliament to set the terms of her coming negotiation with EUCO. | Corbyn demanding that May allows parliament to set the terms of her coming negotiation with EUCO. |
| Corbyn: “Extremely serious and unprecedented situation. The Government has lost control of events and is in complete disarray” pic.twitter.com/Y0zlERbhSZ | Corbyn: “Extremely serious and unprecedented situation. The Government has lost control of events and is in complete disarray” pic.twitter.com/Y0zlERbhSZ |
| and we're below 1.2600 #gbp | and we're below 1.2600 #gbp |
| The PM’s position in a nutshell: | The PM’s position in a nutshell: |
| PM goes on offensive. She says those backing 2nd ref must 'be honest' that this risks dividing country again. If you want to stay in SM + CU this will require free movement & Budget contributions.If you want no deal this will cause significant economic damage. | PM goes on offensive. She says those backing 2nd ref must 'be honest' that this risks dividing country again. If you want to stay in SM + CU this will require free movement & Budget contributions.If you want no deal this will cause significant economic damage. |
| Theresa May is now challenging MPs to support her deal, calling for compromise. | Theresa May is now challenging MPs to support her deal, calling for compromise. |
| She says MPs must admit that a second referendum risks dividing the UK again, that single market membership means maintaining free movement of people, and no deal would cause economic damage. | She says MPs must admit that a second referendum risks dividing the UK again, that single market membership means maintaining free movement of people, and no deal would cause economic damage. |
| But, the House of Commons sounds as divided as ever.... | But, the House of Commons sounds as divided as ever.... |
| 'Does this house want to deliver Brexit?' says May'NO!' comes the cry pic.twitter.com/wMx3p4u0MA | 'Does this house want to deliver Brexit?' says May'NO!' comes the cry pic.twitter.com/wMx3p4u0MA |
| The Brexit problem here in Westminster summed up in a moment - PM says House faces fundamental question, do we want to deliver Brexit? SNP benches and some on Labour backbenches shout “NO”! Most laugh. Except it’s not really that funny. | The Brexit problem here in Westminster summed up in a moment - PM says House faces fundamental question, do we want to deliver Brexit? SNP benches and some on Labour backbenches shout “NO”! Most laugh. Except it’s not really that funny. |
| Theresa May has confirmed that the government has decided to defer the Brexit vote scheduled for tomorrow. | Theresa May has confirmed that the government has decided to defer the Brexit vote scheduled for tomorrow. |
| The PM says there is ‘broad support’ for much of her deal (cue heckling from the opposition benches), but also admits that the government would lose the vote, due to concern over the Irish backstop. | The PM says there is ‘broad support’ for much of her deal (cue heckling from the opposition benches), but also admits that the government would lose the vote, due to concern over the Irish backstop. |
| She tells MPs that both sides are “legally committed to using best endeavours” to ensure the backstop is never used, and that any use would only be temporary. | She tells MPs that both sides are “legally committed to using best endeavours” to ensure the backstop is never used, and that any use would only be temporary. |
| [Reminder: the backstop would ensure no hard border in the island of Ireland, if the UK and EU can’t agree a permanent trade deal at the end of a post-Brexit transition deal] | [Reminder: the backstop would ensure no hard border in the island of Ireland, if the UK and EU can’t agree a permanent trade deal at the end of a post-Brexit transition deal] |
| Given the “clear concerns” of the House of Commons, May adds, she plans to meet fellow EU leaders in the coming days to press for more reassurances on the backstop [many MPs fear that the UK could be trapped permanently]. | Given the “clear concerns” of the House of Commons, May adds, she plans to meet fellow EU leaders in the coming days to press for more reassurances on the backstop [many MPs fear that the UK could be trapped permanently]. |
| There’s not much financial reaction -- the pound is still trading around $1.262, an 18-month low, down one cent today. | There’s not much financial reaction -- the pound is still trading around $1.262, an 18-month low, down one cent today. |
| This morning’s leaks mean that today’s announcement is already priced in.... | This morning’s leaks mean that today’s announcement is already priced in.... |
| Theresa May is giving her statement to the House of Commons now. | Theresa May is giving her statement to the House of Commons now. |
| Our Politics Live blog will have full coverage. I’ll track financial reaction to the key points. | Our Politics Live blog will have full coverage. I’ll track financial reaction to the key points. |
| May makes Commons statement after No 10 shelves key Brexit vote - Politics live | May makes Commons statement after No 10 shelves key Brexit vote - Politics live |
| Theresa May has been working the phones....but not finding many friends at the other end of the line. | Theresa May has been working the phones....but not finding many friends at the other end of the line. |
| Just off call with PM. Expressed my deep frustration that the interests of a divided Tory party are taking priority over the interests of country and that delaying the vote is an abdication of responsibility, leading to even greater chaos. | Just off call with PM. Expressed my deep frustration that the interests of a divided Tory party are taking priority over the interests of country and that delaying the vote is an abdication of responsibility, leading to even greater chaos. |