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May could offer to stand down before election to win support in confidence vote – politics live | May could offer to stand down before election to win support in confidence vote – politics live |
(35 minutes later) | |
This is from the BBC’s Chris Doidge. | |
Burton MP Andrew Griffiths has had the Conservative party whip restored, his office says. It means he can vote in the leadership ballot - and he says he'll support Theresa May. | |
And here is the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush on implications of this. | |
They wouldn’t be doing this if the private numbers were anything like the public ones. https://t.co/UqRHmUWvJq | |
The European parliament has issued a statement today saying that the backstop cannot be renegotiated and that the parliament will not approve any withdrawal agreement that does not include one. Here’s an extract from the statement, which has come from the parliaments’s “conference of presidents”, its governing committee. | |
The conference ... stressed that renegotiating the backstop was not possible since it is the guarantee that in whatever circumstances there could be no hardening of the border on the island of Ireland. The conference reiterated that without a backstop parliament would not give its consent to the withdrawal agreement. | |
The tally of Conservative MPs who have now publicly said they are backing Theresa May has now reached 151, according to my colleague Matthew Weaver. | |
Confidence vote: more than 150 Tory MPs publicly back May | |
This is from the Spectator’s James Forsyth. | |
Spoken to 3 MPs I have long had down as ‘no confidence’ swing votes—one minister, one former and one backbencher—and all say they are voting May. But, interestingly, all want her to go soon after March 29 | |
Another good question. | |
Andrew - when May wins tonight, she will be safe for a year. The Tories have promised a meaningful vote, but have reneged on this already. They have also said that there is no technical requirement for a meaningful vote, as a deal has been made. | |
So, what's to stop her reneging again, and simply refusing to have the vote, once her position is safe for 12 months? | |
Under Conservative party rules, if Theresa May wins tonight, MPs cannot use the 48 letters ruse to trigger a no confidence vote for another 12 months. | |
But: | |
A) She is still vulnerable to a vote of no confidence in the government. If she were to lose one of these (which seems unlikely in the foreseeable future, but by no means impossible, especially if the DUP were to flip), she would have to go. And ... | |
B) Whatever the rules say, if a party leader loses the confidence of their colleagues, normally they do get forced out. If May were to do something her party found egregious, you could imagine the cabinet forcing her out. | |
Re the “meaningful vote”, you’re right. Now that the government has declared that a deal with the EU has been reached, the “meaningful vote” procedure won’t kick in until the government has lost a vote on the deal - and that could be delayed until late March. | |
But two ministers said in the Commons yesterday that, regardless of the letter of the law (the EU Withdrawal Act), they would abide by its spirit, and hold the vote by 21 January. May could choose to break this promise, but politicians never particularly like doing that because it is embarrassing. | |
Another 14 MPs have emerge to publicly state they will be backing May taking the running total to 150. | |
Here’s the latest batch: | |
Helen Whately “We need to move forwards not backwards, look outwards not inwards. I will be voting for Theresa May this evening” | |
Simon Hart told PA: “I think it’s a really strange time to be trying to depose somebody right at the final stages of the most complicated negotiations the country’s ever been involved with.” | |
Neil Parish “She has a tough job and should be given the opportunity to get her Brexit deal over the line” | |
Giles Watling “It’s not a good time to change horses when in sight of the winning post with one jump to go” | |
Luke Graham “Just out of PMQs and it is clear why need to focus on delivering for our constituents & country and not on a leadership election” | |
Neil O’Brien “Whatever you think of the PM this is just NOT the time” | |
Seema Kennedy “She has my unqualified support” | |
John Penrose “We’ve got to focus on getting the right Brexit deal for the country. Anything else is a distraction” | |
David Morris “This is an unwelcome distraction and I will be supporting the prime minister this evening” | |
Nick Herbert “This leadership challenge is gratuitously damaging to the Conservative Party and the country at this critical time” | |
Colin Clark “This is not the time for an upheaval” | |
Bob Seely “Now is not the time for leadership challenge” | |
David Duguid “This prime minister and this withdrawal agreement is still our best option for delivering the best Brexit outcome” | |
Steve Barclay “We need to back Theresa May and deliver the referendum result” | |
Confidence vote: May's opponents and supporters in the Tory party | |
On BBC News a few minutes ago Sir Bernard Jenkin, the Tory Brexiter, said there was something “Orwellian” about being called an “extremist” by Philip Hammond, the chancellor. (See 1.56pm.) Jenkin said: | |
It is odd, isn’t it, that 52% of the country voted leave, and we put in our manifesto that we should leave the customs union, that we should leave the single market, take back control of our laws. Now we are faced with an agreement that doesn’t deliver these things. And we are called the extremists. It’s an Orwellian world we are living in, isn’t it? | |
I thought that once we had won the referendum, we would be accepted as the mainstream. The problem we’ve got is, even though some 400 constituencies voted leave, so many of their members of parliament who say they represent are not happily supporting leave. They are trying to frustrate the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. That has got very big consequences for our democracy. | |
The new first minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, has said that the Conservative party is gripped by “madness”. Speaking in the Welsh assembly, where he has become first minister after replacing Carwyn Jones as Labour’s leader in Wales, Drakeford said: | The new first minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, has said that the Conservative party is gripped by “madness”. Speaking in the Welsh assembly, where he has become first minister after replacing Carwyn Jones as Labour’s leader in Wales, Drakeford said: |
When I was elected as leader of the Labour party [in Wales] last week I said I wanted to be a beacon of hope in a darkening world. Today is not a moment for partisan remarks but the skies around us have darkened even further in the days which have followed. | When I was elected as leader of the Labour party [in Wales] last week I said I wanted to be a beacon of hope in a darkening world. Today is not a moment for partisan remarks but the skies around us have darkened even further in the days which have followed. |
A species of madness has descended on the Conservative party in which significant numbers of its members of parliament appear to believe that our country’s future is better secured by heaping a leadership contest on to the burning platform that Brexit has become. | A species of madness has descended on the Conservative party in which significant numbers of its members of parliament appear to believe that our country’s future is better secured by heaping a leadership contest on to the burning platform that Brexit has become. |
The Conservative Brexiter Sir Bernard Jenkin has just told BBC News that he “agonised” about whether to submit a letter calling for a no confidence vote and only submitted his letter yesterday. | The Conservative Brexiter Sir Bernard Jenkin has just told BBC News that he “agonised” about whether to submit a letter calling for a no confidence vote and only submitted his letter yesterday. |
And here’s another reader question. | And here’s another reader question. |
If the will exists amongst MPs, could a cross party coalition of MPs with sufficient numbers form a 'national unity government' and take back control? | If the will exists amongst MPs, could a cross party coalition of MPs with sufficient numbers form a 'national unity government' and take back control? |
Only by passing a motion of no confidence in the government, which the leader of the opposition would have to table. | Only by passing a motion of no confidence in the government, which the leader of the opposition would have to table. |
Then May would stay as PM until she was in a position to advise the Queen who she should appoint as her successor. At this point the rules are fuzzy, but the alternatives would be a) a new Tory leader, or b) Jeremy Corbyn, if he could persuade the palace that he had enough votes to win a confidence vote within 14 days. | Then May would stay as PM until she was in a position to advise the Queen who she should appoint as her successor. At this point the rules are fuzzy, but the alternatives would be a) a new Tory leader, or b) Jeremy Corbyn, if he could persuade the palace that he had enough votes to win a confidence vote within 14 days. |
If no one can form a new government and win a confidence vote, there is an election. | If no one can form a new government and win a confidence vote, there is an election. |
Conceivably Amber Rudd, or Hilary Benn, or Vince Cable (or even Corbyn) could rustle up a cross-party coalition that would pass a confidence vote in a government of national unity, but it does not seem very likely at all. | Conceivably Amber Rudd, or Hilary Benn, or Vince Cable (or even Corbyn) could rustle up a cross-party coalition that would pass a confidence vote in a government of national unity, but it does not seem very likely at all. |
If it were to happen, it would probably involve most of Labour, the Tory mainstream, and a deal to pass a Norway-style Brexit, plus an agreement to call an election once that’s done. David Lidington as PM, and Corbyn as deputy PM? But I’m probably getting well into fantasy here .... | If it were to happen, it would probably involve most of Labour, the Tory mainstream, and a deal to pass a Norway-style Brexit, plus an agreement to call an election once that’s done. David Lidington as PM, and Corbyn as deputy PM? But I’m probably getting well into fantasy here .... |