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May could offer to stand down before election to win support in confidence vote – politics live May could offer to stand down before election to win support in confidence vote – politics live
(35 minutes later)
This is from the BBC’s Chris Doidge.
Burton MP Andrew Griffiths has had the Conservative party whip restored, his office says. It means he can vote in the leadership ballot - and he says he'll support Theresa May.
And here is the New Statesman’s Stephen Bush on implications of this.
They wouldn’t be doing this if the private numbers were anything like the public ones. https://t.co/UqRHmUWvJq
The European parliament has issued a statement today saying that the backstop cannot be renegotiated and that the parliament will not approve any withdrawal agreement that does not include one. Here’s an extract from the statement, which has come from the parliaments’s “conference of presidents”, its governing committee.
The conference ... stressed that renegotiating the backstop was not possible since it is the guarantee that in whatever circumstances there could be no hardening of the border on the island of Ireland. The conference reiterated that without a backstop parliament would not give its consent to the withdrawal agreement.
The tally of Conservative MPs who have now publicly said they are backing Theresa May has now reached 151, according to my colleague Matthew Weaver.
Confidence vote: more than 150 Tory MPs publicly back May
This is from the Spectator’s James Forsyth.
Spoken to 3 MPs I have long had down as ‘no confidence’ swing votes—one minister, one former and one backbencher—and all say they are voting May. But, interestingly, all want her to go soon after March 29
Another good question.
Andrew - when May wins tonight, she will be safe for a year. The Tories have promised a meaningful vote, but have reneged on this already. They have also said that there is no technical requirement for a meaningful vote, as a deal has been made.
So, what's to stop her reneging again, and simply refusing to have the vote, once her position is safe for 12 months?
Under Conservative party rules, if Theresa May wins tonight, MPs cannot use the 48 letters ruse to trigger a no confidence vote for another 12 months.
But:
A) She is still vulnerable to a vote of no confidence in the government. If she were to lose one of these (which seems unlikely in the foreseeable future, but by no means impossible, especially if the DUP were to flip), she would have to go. And ...
B) Whatever the rules say, if a party leader loses the confidence of their colleagues, normally they do get forced out. If May were to do something her party found egregious, you could imagine the cabinet forcing her out.
Re the “meaningful vote”, you’re right. Now that the government has declared that a deal with the EU has been reached, the “meaningful vote” procedure won’t kick in until the government has lost a vote on the deal - and that could be delayed until late March.
But two ministers said in the Commons yesterday that, regardless of the letter of the law (the EU Withdrawal Act), they would abide by its spirit, and hold the vote by 21 January. May could choose to break this promise, but politicians never particularly like doing that because it is embarrassing.
Another 14 MPs have emerge to publicly state they will be backing May taking the running total to 150.
Here’s the latest batch:
Helen Whately “We need to move forwards not backwards, look outwards not inwards. I will be voting for Theresa May this evening”
Simon Hart told PA: “I think it’s a really strange time to be trying to depose somebody right at the final stages of the most complicated negotiations the country’s ever been involved with.”
Neil Parish “She has a tough job and should be given the opportunity to get her Brexit deal over the line”
Giles Watling “It’s not a good time to change horses when in sight of the winning post with one jump to go”
Luke Graham “Just out of PMQs and it is clear why need to focus on delivering for our constituents & country and not on a leadership election”
Neil O’Brien “Whatever you think of the PM this is just NOT the time”
Seema Kennedy “She has my unqualified support”
John Penrose “We’ve got to focus on getting the right Brexit deal for the country. Anything else is a distraction”
David Morris “This is an unwelcome distraction and I will be supporting the prime minister this evening”
Nick Herbert “This leadership challenge is gratuitously damaging to the Conservative Party and the country at this critical time”
Colin Clark “This is not the time for an upheaval”
Bob Seely “Now is not the time for leadership challenge”
David Duguid “This prime minister and this withdrawal agreement is still our best option for delivering the best Brexit outcome”
Steve Barclay “We need to back Theresa May and deliver the referendum result”
Confidence vote: May's opponents and supporters in the Tory party
On BBC News a few minutes ago Sir Bernard Jenkin, the Tory Brexiter, said there was something “Orwellian” about being called an “extremist” by Philip Hammond, the chancellor. (See 1.56pm.) Jenkin said:
It is odd, isn’t it, that 52% of the country voted leave, and we put in our manifesto that we should leave the customs union, that we should leave the single market, take back control of our laws. Now we are faced with an agreement that doesn’t deliver these things. And we are called the extremists. It’s an Orwellian world we are living in, isn’t it?
I thought that once we had won the referendum, we would be accepted as the mainstream. The problem we’ve got is, even though some 400 constituencies voted leave, so many of their members of parliament who say they represent are not happily supporting leave. They are trying to frustrate the United Kingdom leaving the European Union. That has got very big consequences for our democracy.
The new first minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, has said that the Conservative party is gripped by “madness”. Speaking in the Welsh assembly, where he has become first minister after replacing Carwyn Jones as Labour’s leader in Wales, Drakeford said:The new first minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford, has said that the Conservative party is gripped by “madness”. Speaking in the Welsh assembly, where he has become first minister after replacing Carwyn Jones as Labour’s leader in Wales, Drakeford said:
When I was elected as leader of the Labour party [in Wales] last week I said I wanted to be a beacon of hope in a darkening world. Today is not a moment for partisan remarks but the skies around us have darkened even further in the days which have followed.When I was elected as leader of the Labour party [in Wales] last week I said I wanted to be a beacon of hope in a darkening world. Today is not a moment for partisan remarks but the skies around us have darkened even further in the days which have followed.
A species of madness has descended on the Conservative party in which significant numbers of its members of parliament appear to believe that our country’s future is better secured by heaping a leadership contest on to the burning platform that Brexit has become.A species of madness has descended on the Conservative party in which significant numbers of its members of parliament appear to believe that our country’s future is better secured by heaping a leadership contest on to the burning platform that Brexit has become.
The Conservative Brexiter Sir Bernard Jenkin has just told BBC News that he “agonised” about whether to submit a letter calling for a no confidence vote and only submitted his letter yesterday.The Conservative Brexiter Sir Bernard Jenkin has just told BBC News that he “agonised” about whether to submit a letter calling for a no confidence vote and only submitted his letter yesterday.
And here’s another reader question.And here’s another reader question.
If the will exists amongst MPs, could a cross party coalition of MPs with sufficient numbers form a 'national unity government' and take back control?If the will exists amongst MPs, could a cross party coalition of MPs with sufficient numbers form a 'national unity government' and take back control?
Only by passing a motion of no confidence in the government, which the leader of the opposition would have to table.Only by passing a motion of no confidence in the government, which the leader of the opposition would have to table.
Then May would stay as PM until she was in a position to advise the Queen who she should appoint as her successor. At this point the rules are fuzzy, but the alternatives would be a) a new Tory leader, or b) Jeremy Corbyn, if he could persuade the palace that he had enough votes to win a confidence vote within 14 days.Then May would stay as PM until she was in a position to advise the Queen who she should appoint as her successor. At this point the rules are fuzzy, but the alternatives would be a) a new Tory leader, or b) Jeremy Corbyn, if he could persuade the palace that he had enough votes to win a confidence vote within 14 days.
If no one can form a new government and win a confidence vote, there is an election.If no one can form a new government and win a confidence vote, there is an election.
Conceivably Amber Rudd, or Hilary Benn, or Vince Cable (or even Corbyn) could rustle up a cross-party coalition that would pass a confidence vote in a government of national unity, but it does not seem very likely at all.Conceivably Amber Rudd, or Hilary Benn, or Vince Cable (or even Corbyn) could rustle up a cross-party coalition that would pass a confidence vote in a government of national unity, but it does not seem very likely at all.
If it were to happen, it would probably involve most of Labour, the Tory mainstream, and a deal to pass a Norway-style Brexit, plus an agreement to call an election once that’s done. David Lidington as PM, and Corbyn as deputy PM? But I’m probably getting well into fantasy here ....If it were to happen, it would probably involve most of Labour, the Tory mainstream, and a deal to pass a Norway-style Brexit, plus an agreement to call an election once that’s done. David Lidington as PM, and Corbyn as deputy PM? But I’m probably getting well into fantasy here ....
If it all goes wrong for Theresa May tonight, Ed Miliband has some helpful career advice ...
.@theresa_may If it goes wrong tonight I can promise you a bright future in podcasting...
Another answer to a question from a reader.
Is it now not possible for Labour to push for a no-confidence vote? Surely that would be "no confidence" in the government, rather than the leader of the Tory party? How does it usually work and what are the likely routes the opposition might take? Yes - I know we are probably in uncharted waters.
It is easy for Labour to trigger a no confidence debate. They just table a motion of no confidence, and by convention it has to be debated fairly soon. (The leader of the opposition can do this, but other opposition parties cannot table no confidence motions that then have to be debated.)
What’s holding Labour back is not that this would be difficult to do; it is that the government would probably win (and Jeremy Corbyn would then be under pressure to actively back a second referendum, but that’s another issue.)
It is a mistake to think that Tory MPs who would back a no confidence motion in Theresa May as PM would back a no confidence motion in the government. They won’t. They want a Tory government - just under a different leader.
Michael Gove, the environment secretary, has said he expected Theresa May to win the vote “handsomely”. He said:
I think the prime minister will win tonight and she will win handsomely. I regret that a leadership contest has been triggered, but I respect my colleagues.
I know that everyone’s made their decision after careful thought.
The one thing I would ask every Conservative MP to do is to ponder before they cast their vote this evening: If we don’t support the prime minister, then we risk derailing or diluting Brexit.
If we do support the prime minister we can honour the mandate that the British people have given us.
It is notable that the language Gove, a Brexiter, is using about the MPs who have triggered the no confidence vote is notably more conciliatory than the language used by Philip Hammond, the remain-voting chancellor. (See 1.56pm.)
This is from Hugh Bennett, from the Guido Fawkes website.
Ballot boxes spotted on the move in parliament pic.twitter.com/CW1Q9D5goj
My colleague Matthew Weaver, who has been tracking the statements that Tory MPs have been making on Twitter about how they will vote tonight, says 137 of them have now declared for the prime minister.
Confidence vote: May's opponents and supporters in the Tory party
And he puts the number of Tory MPs who have publicly declared against May at 28.
Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has described those Tories trying to remove Theresa May as “extremists” pushing for a no-deal Brexit. He told Sky News:
I’m very clear that the prime minister will have the support of the great majority of parliamentary colleagues. And I think what this vote today will do is flush out the extremists who are trying to advance a particular agenda which would really not be in the interests of the British people or the British economy. Leaving the European Union without a deal would be bad for Britain.
Since our last update another 15 Tory MPs have declared they will be voting for May tonight taking the running total to 136 (and counting). She needs just 22 more to win.
Here’s the latest batch:
Gillian Keegan
Heather Wheeler
Richard Graham
Richard Benyon
Mark Pawsey
Chris Philp
Kemi Badenoch
Ken Clarke
David Rutley
Ben Wallace
Garry Streeter
Kwasi Kwarteng
Chole Smith
Nusrat Ghani
Lucy Frazer
Confidence vote: May's opponents and supporters in the Tory party
Can we expect an intervention by the European commission president, Jean-Claude Juncker, later today?
The Irish PM, Leo Varadkar, revealed in the Dáil that he would be talking to him to discuss what assurances he can give May. He said:
I’ll be taking a call with President Juncker later on today to see what assurances we can give the United Kingdom parliament that might assist them to ratify the withdrawal agreement.
He reiterated however that the substance of the deal could not be changed “including the substance of the protocol on Ireland and Northern Ireland”.
Another question.
Hello Andrew, Is this vote secret? If it is do you think that will effect the result?
Yes, more or less. See 10.30am for more.
At the post PMQs briefing, asked how Theresa May was dealing with the stress, the Downing Street source said:
A lot of people have talked about her resilience in different situations and I think we have seen that again today. As ever, she is determined and focused.