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Tory leadership challenge: the main contenders Tory leadership challenge: the main contenders
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If Theresa May fails to gain the support of 158 Conservative MPs in a confidence vote on her leadership on Wednesday, it will throw open the race to succeed her. There is no obvious frontrunner, and a number of people will fancy their chances. Here are the likely main challengers:If Theresa May fails to gain the support of 158 Conservative MPs in a confidence vote on her leadership on Wednesday, it will throw open the race to succeed her. There is no obvious frontrunner, and a number of people will fancy their chances. Here are the likely main challengers:
Boris JohnsonBoris Johnson
The former foreign secretary is forever near the top of succession speculation, and has been laying out his alternative Brexit plans in the Daily Telegraph ever since he quit the cabinet in July in protest at May’s proposals. The former foreign secretary is forever near the forefront of succession speculation, and has been laying out his alternative Brexit plans in the Daily Telegraph ever since he quit the cabinet in July in protest at May’s proposals.
He remains popular with the Tory faithful, and as the twice-mayor of London he is a proven election winner. However, Johnson was widely derided as an unfocused and ineffectual foreign secretary, and his brand is viewed as damaged. He remains popular with the Tory faithful, and, having served two terms as mayor of London, he is a proven election winner. However, Johnson was widely derided as an unfocused and ineffectual foreign secretary, and his brand is seen as damaged.
The popular Westminster consensus is that Johnson would probably triumph if he reached the final two candidates, who are put to members, but that he has annoyed so many fellow MPs with his endless manoeuvrings that he will struggle to get that far. Time will tell. The popular Westminster view is that Johnson would probably triumph if he was one of the final two candidates who are put to members, but that he has annoyed so many fellow MPs with his endless manoeuvrings that he will struggle to get that far. Time will tell.
Sajid JavidSajid Javid
Currently second to Johnson in the regular ConservativeHome poll of readers about their hoped-for next leader, the home secretary is seen as being among the clear favourites to succeed May.Currently second to Johnson in the regular ConservativeHome poll of readers about their hoped-for next leader, the home secretary is seen as being among the clear favourites to succeed May.
Crucially, in an era where Brexit permeates everything, Javid has the advantage of being that all-things-to-all-MPs hybrid – a low-key remainer who is now a self-styled convert to the Brexit cause. He could thus, potentially, be trusted by both sides. Crucially, in an era where Brexit permeates everything, Javid has the advantage of being that all-things-to-all-MPs hybrid – a low-key remainer who is now a convert to the Brexit cause. He could thus, potentially, be trusted by both sides.
But for all Javid’s diligence, and a personal backstory which would resonate with many voters, he is a fairly uninspiring public speaker, and, much like the charge that could be levelled at May, it can be hard to distinguish what he actually stands for, beyond a general commitment to a smaller state.But for all Javid’s diligence, and a personal backstory which would resonate with many voters, he is a fairly uninspiring public speaker, and, much like the charge that could be levelled at May, it can be hard to distinguish what he actually stands for, beyond a general commitment to a smaller state.
Jeremy HuntJeremy Hunt
Johnson’s successor as foreign secretary, Hunt is a real political survivor. After coming within a whisker of losing his culture secretary job amid the Leveson inquiry, he became the longest-serving health secretary in UK political history.Johnson’s successor as foreign secretary, Hunt is a real political survivor. After coming within a whisker of losing his culture secretary job amid the Leveson inquiry, he became the longest-serving health secretary in UK political history.
Now known as a generally safe pair of hands, beyond occasional gaffes such as angering EU leaders by comparing the bloc to the former Soviet Union, Hunt could conceivably get through by virtue of being the least-disliked candidate. Now known as a generally safe pair of hands, despite occasional gaffes such as angering EU leaders by comparing the bloc to the former Soviet Union, Hunt could conceivably get through by virtue of being the least-disliked candidate.
Another remainer-turned-leaver Hunt is not, however, able to tout himself as a man of the people. The privately-educated son of an admiral, Hunt is one of the wealthiest MPs. In April it emerged that he had received a “bulk discount” for buying seven investment flats from a Conservative donor. Another remainer-turned-leaver, Hunt is not, however, able to tout himself as a man of the people. The privately educated son of an admiral, Hunt is one of the wealthiest MPs. In April it emerged that he had received a “bulk discount” for buying seven investment flats from a Conservative donor.
Amber RuddAmber Rudd
Newly-returned to cabinet as the work and pensions secretary, Rudd is affable and hugely ambitious. On Monday she sent fellow MPs an open letter about her aims in her new job, seen by many as a flag raised ahead of what seemed then like an imminent leadership campaign. Newly returned to cabinet as the work and pensions secretary, Rudd is affable and hugely ambitious. On Monday she sent fellow MPs an open letter about her aims in her new job, seen by many as a flag raised ahead of what seemed then like an imminent leadership campaign.
However, Rudd faces obstacles, not least her firm remainer sympathies, which would place her off limits to many Brexit-minded Tory MPs or members. It is also less than nine months since she resigned as the home secretary amid the Windrush scandal. However, Rudd faces obstacles, not least her firm remainer sympathies, which would place her off-limits to many Brexit-minded Tory MPs or members. It is also less than nine months since she resigned as the home secretary amid the Windrush scandal.
Finally, since the 2017 election Rudd holds her Hastings and Rye seat with a majority of just 346, and would be a huge target for Labour. It could be interesting also to see what her constituents might think of her admission that after leaving the cabinet she went on a “half gap year”, including an Interrail trip. Since the 2017 election Rudd holds her Hastings and Rye seat with a majority of just 346, and would be a huge target for Labour. It could be interesting also to see what her constituents might think of her admission that after leaving the cabinet she went on a “half gap year”, including an Interrail trip.
Dominic RaabDominic Raab
Shaping up to be the favoured candidate among many leave-minded Conservative MPs, Raab would certainly be considered of sufficient ideological purity, even if he only quit as the Brexit secretary a month ago over May’s plans.Shaping up to be the favoured candidate among many leave-minded Conservative MPs, Raab would certainly be considered of sufficient ideological purity, even if he only quit as the Brexit secretary a month ago over May’s plans.
Long tipped for high office, the former lawyer and diplomat is seen as intelligent, vigorous and hugely ambitious. This can, however, tip over into abrasive statements, such as his suggestion that feminists were “obnoxious bigots” and men faced discrimination.Long tipped for high office, the former lawyer and diplomat is seen as intelligent, vigorous and hugely ambitious. This can, however, tip over into abrasive statements, such as his suggestion that feminists were “obnoxious bigots” and men faced discrimination.
Raab also arguably lacks something of the human touch, a trait exemplified when a former aide revealed that he has exactly the same lunch every day.Raab also arguably lacks something of the human touch, a trait exemplified when a former aide revealed that he has exactly the same lunch every day.
David DavisDavid Davis
The most experienced of the bunch – he lost to David Cameron in the 2005 Tory leadership race – the former Brexit secretary is the purest of ideological leavers, and has more allies among his fellow Conservative MPs than some might think.The most experienced of the bunch – he lost to David Cameron in the 2005 Tory leadership race – the former Brexit secretary is the purest of ideological leavers, and has more allies among his fellow Conservative MPs than some might think.
An MP for 31 years, Davis certainly has the experience, and has a reputation for being principled, exemplified by his decision to step down as the shadow home secretary and re-fight his parliamentary seat in 2008 in a row over detention without trial.An MP for 31 years, Davis certainly has the experience, and has a reputation for being principled, exemplified by his decision to step down as the shadow home secretary and re-fight his parliamentary seat in 2008 in a row over detention without trial.
He does, however, seem an outsider: a die-hard Brexiter who will be 70 later this year, and who spent two years working on the very departure deal he now disowns. He does, however, seem an outsider: a diehard Brexiter who will be 70 later this year, and who spent two years working on the very departure deal he now disowns.
Esther McVeyEsther McVey
The newly-departed work and pensions secretary certainly has ambitions, and her Brexiter credentials might make her tempting to some fellow MPs. But it does seem a long shot. The newly departed work and pensions secretary certainly has ambitions, and her Brexiter credentials might make her tempting to some fellow MPs. But it does seem a long shot.
The former TV presenter certainly possesses a vivid backstory. When she was born, her young parents were unable to cope so she spent the first two years of her life in foster care with Barnardo’s. Her father’s construction firm later prospered sufficiently for McVey to be sent to private school. The former TV presenter certainly possesses a vivid backstory. When she was born, her young parents were unable to cope so she spent the first two years of her life in foster care with Barnardo’s. Her father’s construction firm later prospered, giving the family a more comfortable life.
Counting against McVey is her unpopularity with some colleagues, and a difficult public reputation, one partly caused by having to helm unpopular benefits policies, but also by mishaps, such as misleading parliament over welfare changes. Counting against McVey is her unpopularity with some colleagues, and a difficult public reputation, one partly caused by having to oversee unpopular benefits policies, but also by mishaps, such as misleading parliament over welfare changes.
David LidingtonDavid Lidington
May’s de facto deputy is both the ultimate safe pair of ministerial hands, and a committed remainer, so his chances could seem limited. Lidington’s success could hinge on the party deciding it somehow needs a caretaker PM to see the UK through Brexit, before a more thorough choice is made.May’s de facto deputy is both the ultimate safe pair of ministerial hands, and a committed remainer, so his chances could seem limited. Lidington’s success could hinge on the party deciding it somehow needs a caretaker PM to see the UK through Brexit, before a more thorough choice is made.
If so, he would fit the bill. Lidington is hugely experienced, popular with his fellow MPs, and is a much more fierce adversary at the despatch box than his twinkly persona might indicate. If so, he would fit the bill. Lidington is hugely experienced, popular with his fellow MPs, and is a much more fierce adversary at the dispatch box than his twinkly persona might indicate.
Other who might fancy their chances:Other who might fancy their chances:
Penny Mordaunt: the ambitious and personable international development secretary. Socially liberal but a firm Brexiter. Has only been in cabinet for a year. Jacob Rees-Mogg: Long viewed as a favourite to succeed May, the leading Brexiter is now seen as less likely to compete, not least as the European Research Group (ERG), which he formerly led, has said candidates should have cabinet experience. Popular among grassroots member but unlikely to make the final two.
Gavin Williamson: The chief whip-turned defence secretary. Knows where bodies are buried, but can annoy colleagues. Resembles a slightly hapless minor royal with a Yorkshire accent. Penny Mordaunt: The international development secretary is ambitious and personable. Socially liberal but a firm Brexiter. Has only been in cabinet for a year.
Gavin Williamson: The chief whip who became defence secretary. Knows where the bodies are buried, but can annoy colleagues. Resembles a slightly hapless minor royal with a Yorkshire accent.
Priti Patel: The former international development secretary, and an advocate for tooth-and-claw unregulated capitalism. Not widely regarded among colleagues.Priti Patel: The former international development secretary, and an advocate for tooth-and-claw unregulated capitalism. Not widely regarded among colleagues.
Justine Greening: Since stepping down as the education secretary, Greening has reinvented herself as the voice of socially progressive Conservatism. But as an advocate of a second Brexit referendum, seems doomed.Justine Greening: Since stepping down as the education secretary, Greening has reinvented herself as the voice of socially progressive Conservatism. But as an advocate of a second Brexit referendum, seems doomed.
Who could team up with whom?Who could team up with whom?
If May falls, any previous alliances will likely be subject to the usual rats-in-a-sack conduct of a leadership race. If May falls, any previous alliances are likely to be subject to the usual rats-in-a-sack conduct of a leadership race.
One mooted possibility is that the Brexiters from the European Research Group could hold some sort of initial caucus to pick a single leave-minded candidate, though this has been played down. Another idea could be two Brexiters combining, for example Raab being backed by Davis, who would get a key job in a new government. One mooted possibility is that the Brexiters from the ERG could hold some sort of initial caucus to pick a single leave-minded candidate, though this has been played down. Another idea could be two Brexiters combining, for example Raab being backed by Davis, who would get a key job in a new government.
Another possibility could be someone with less solid Brexiter credentials, such as Javid or Hunt, securing the formal backing of a die-hard leaver. Another possibility could be someone with less solid Brexiter credentials, such as Javid or Hunt, securing the formal backing of a diehard leaver.
The other key factor to watch would be candidates peeling off after they either lose in an early round of voting or realise they have no chance, and which candidates they then support. Also of note will be contenders who attract outright opposition, even threats to leave the party if they succeed – as Johnson already has already experienced. A key factor to watch would be candidates peeling off after they either lost in an early round of voting or realised they had no chance, and which candidates they then supported. Also of note will be contenders who attract outright opposition, even threats to leave the party if they succeed – as Johnson has already experienced.
Conservative leadershipConservative leadership
ConservativesConservatives
BrexitBrexit
Boris JohnsonBoris Johnson
Sajid JavidSajid Javid
Jeremy HuntJeremy Hunt
Amber RuddAmber Rudd
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