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| May win will prompt relief in Brussels but not concessions | |
| (34 minutes later) | |
| Theresa May’s relief at her victory in Westminster looks set to be shortlived, with EU leaders preparing to offer warm words but rule out significant concessions on the Brexit deal. | |
| The prime minister’s survival, by a margin of 200 votes to 117 in a Conservative party confidence vote, was welcomed in Brussels but she faces an uphill challenge in convincing the 27 other member states to offer anything that will tempt MPs to back the withdrawal agreement. | The prime minister’s survival, by a margin of 200 votes to 117 in a Conservative party confidence vote, was welcomed in Brussels but she faces an uphill challenge in convincing the 27 other member states to offer anything that will tempt MPs to back the withdrawal agreement. |
| May is to be asked to outline the problem she faces in getting the deal through parliament at an EU summit in the Belgian capital on Thursday afternoon and take questions from the heads of state and governments, before they retire without her later in the evening to decide on their next steps. | May is to be asked to outline the problem she faces in getting the deal through parliament at an EU summit in the Belgian capital on Thursday afternoon and take questions from the heads of state and governments, before they retire without her later in the evening to decide on their next steps. |
| The prime minister had deferred the “meaningful vote” on the withdrawal agreement this week, citing MPs’ concerns about the “backstop”, an arrangement for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland that could keep the UK in a customs union indefinitely. | The prime minister had deferred the “meaningful vote” on the withdrawal agreement this week, citing MPs’ concerns about the “backstop”, an arrangement for avoiding a hard border on the island of Ireland that could keep the UK in a customs union indefinitely. |
| Sebastian Kurz, the Austrian chancellor, tweeted to welcome the prime minister’s win in a sign of the widespread relief among the EU’s leaders. | |
| He said: “Glad about the outcome of tonight’s vote in the UK. Looking forward to seeing Theresa May tomorrow at the European Council in Brussels. Our shared goal is to avoid a no-deal scenario.” | |
| According to a leaked document seen by the Guardian, the European leaders are expected to issue a short statement of six paragraphs insisting that “the backstop does not represent a desirable outcome” for the EU. | According to a leaked document seen by the Guardian, the European leaders are expected to issue a short statement of six paragraphs insisting that “the backstop does not represent a desirable outcome” for the EU. |
| They plan to reiterate that the arrangement would only be temporary and Brussels would negotiate and “conclude expeditiously a subsequent agreement that would replace the backstop”, in new language emphasising the need for intensive talks after the contentious arrangement is put into force. | |
| The EU will consider further help in the coming weeks in hearing the British government’s demands, but the bloc will insist the deal “is not open for renegotiation”. | |
| “The union stands ready to examine whether any further assurance can be provided,” the leaders will say, according to the draft document. “Such assurance will not change or contradict the withdrawal agreement.” | “The union stands ready to examine whether any further assurance can be provided,” the leaders will say, according to the draft document. “Such assurance will not change or contradict the withdrawal agreement.” |
| A senior official said: “We believe that when it comes to the backstop, the text of the withdrawal agreement, and the text of the political declaration, is clear. If there is something unclear then we need to listen to the prime minister as to what is unclear. | A senior official said: “We believe that when it comes to the backstop, the text of the withdrawal agreement, and the text of the political declaration, is clear. If there is something unclear then we need to listen to the prime minister as to what is unclear. |
| “The leaders will listen as to what assurances she is looking for and they will decide in the evening what assurances they will offer. I don’t know what is possible but I know what is impossible. What is impossible is to renegotiate the deal ... The rest can be discussed.” | “The leaders will listen as to what assurances she is looking for and they will decide in the evening what assurances they will offer. I don’t know what is possible but I know what is impossible. What is impossible is to renegotiate the deal ... The rest can be discussed.” |
| EU officials expect May to seek a legally binding protocol containing a target date for coming out of the backstop, in the event of it coming into force. An official said a “plethora” of options could be available. | EU officials expect May to seek a legally binding protocol containing a target date for coming out of the backstop, in the event of it coming into force. An official said a “plethora” of options could be available. |
| But a number of member states are reluctant to offer such a hostage to fortune. Even a soft target of getting out of the backstop within a year could be used against the EU in arbitration should it not be met. | But a number of member states are reluctant to offer such a hostage to fortune. Even a soft target of getting out of the backstop within a year could be used against the EU in arbitration should it not be met. |
| One senior EU diplomat said: “The reassurances are already there. I think it will be very difficult to attach a date. It will be extremely artificial. How can we attach a date to that if we haven’t started negotiation? If you read the political declaration it is our intention to get to the trade deal within the transition period. That is already quite something. This is the best intention we can put to paper.” | |
| “We still want to get out of that backstop as soon as possible but there is no point in putting in [a target] of one week, one day,” the diplomat added. | |
| EU capitals were alarmed by the sudden threat to May’s premiership, and no-deal preparations are to be accelerated in the coming days. | EU capitals were alarmed by the sudden threat to May’s premiership, and no-deal preparations are to be accelerated in the coming days. |
| “The Europeans are worried, but organised. They are ready,” the diplomat said. “There is no panic on our side.” | “The Europeans are worried, but organised. They are ready,” the diplomat said. “There is no panic on our side.” |
| “London is a mess, everything is horrible,” said a second diplomat. “The nervous atmosphere gets tenser and tenser. Hopes are still there but joy is zero. It is now below anything that I ever expected, it is not even a process based on any kind of predictability.” | “London is a mess, everything is horrible,” said a second diplomat. “The nervous atmosphere gets tenser and tenser. Hopes are still there but joy is zero. It is now below anything that I ever expected, it is not even a process based on any kind of predictability.” |
| “It’s getting so messy and absurd that even the funny elements of this are actually tragic,” the diplomat added. “In this muddy soupy kind of drama we can also see these days it is difficult to get any sense of meaning or orientation, but I still can’t be so undiplomatic to tell you that there is no hope.” | “It’s getting so messy and absurd that even the funny elements of this are actually tragic,” the diplomat added. “In this muddy soupy kind of drama we can also see these days it is difficult to get any sense of meaning or orientation, but I still can’t be so undiplomatic to tell you that there is no hope.” |
| Asked whether the UK had the most unstable government in Europe, the source replied: “Is there a government in London actually?” | Asked whether the UK had the most unstable government in Europe, the source replied: “Is there a government in London actually?” |
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