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Erdogan Snubs Bolton Over Comments That Turkey Must Protect Kurds Erdogan Snubs Bolton Over Comments That Turkey Must Protect Kurds
(about 11 hours later)
ISTANBUL — President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey denounced the White House national security adviser John R. Bolton for comments he made ahead of his arrival in the Turkish capital and refused to meet him on Tuesday, making any agreement between the two NATO partners over a United States withdrawal from Syria increasingly difficult. ISTANBUL — President Trump’s muddled plan to withdraw the United States from Syria fell into further disarray on Tuesday after Turkey’s leader rebuffed Mr. Trump’s emissary, John R. Bolton, and angrily dismissed his demand that Turkey agree to protect America’s Kurdish allies.
Mr. Erdogan said Mr. Bolton had made a “grave mistake” when he said that Turkey must agree to protect Syria’s Kurds in the event of an American withdrawal. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Mr. Bolton had made a “grave mistake” in setting that condition for the pullout of troops. “It is not possible for us to swallow the message Bolton gave from Israel,” Mr. Erdogan said in Parliament, after refusing to meet with Mr. Bolton, the president’s national security adviser, during his visit to Turkey.
“It is not possible for us to swallow the message Bolton gave from Israel,” Mr. Erdogan said in a speech to political party members in Parliament. Turkey was only opposed to Kurdish militant groups and not ordinary Kurds, he insisted. The failure of Mr. Bolton’s mission, which was intended to reassure allies that Mr. Trump would pull out of Syria in an orderly fashion, raised new questions about whether the United States would be able to come to terms with Turkey, a NATO partner, about how to withdraw 2,000 American troops who fought alongside the Kurds against the Islamic State.
Mr. Bolton was in Ankara, the Turkish capital, on Tuesday for meetings with his national security counterpart Ibrahim Kalin but left after he was denied a meeting with Mr. Erdogan, the pro-government English-language newspaper Daily Sabah reported. It was the latest, most vivid example of what has become a recurring motif in Mr. Trump’s idiosyncratic, leader-to-leader foreign policy: a senior American official humiliated by a foreign head of state who evidently calculated that he could extract a better deal by talking directly to Mr. Trump.
In a news briefing after Mr. Bolton’s departure, Mr. Kalin said that a meeting between Mr. Bolton and Mr. Erdogan had not been scheduled and had been deemed unnecessary after the national security advisers had met. As with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, who has disdained negotiating the future of his nuclear arsenal with Secretary of State Mike Pompeo rather than with Mr. Trump himself, Mr. Erdogan was contemptuous of Mr. Bolton’s effort to flesh out an American withdrawal that Mr. Trump broached in a phone call with Mr. Erdogan just before announcing it on Dec. 19.
Mr. Erdogan had hailed President Trump’s decision to pull out of Syria as the “right call.” The Turkish leader hailed Mr. Trump for making “the right call” in an opinion piece in The New York Times. He argued that Turkey, with the second-largest standing army in NATO, was the only country with the power and commitment to replace American forces in northeastern Syria, fight terrorism and ensure stability for the Syrian people.
In an Opinion piece in The New York Times, he made the case that Turkey, with the second largest standing army in the NATO alliance, was the only country with the power and commitment to replace United States forces in northeastern Syria, to fight terrorism and ensure stability for the Syrian people. But Pentagon officials have voiced deep skepticism that Turkish forces have either the capacity or the will to carry out extensive counterterrorism operations against the Islamic State. They also warn that any Turkish incursions into northeastern Syria would lead to clashes with the Syrian Kurdish-Arab coalition allied with the Americans.
In Jerusalem, in addition to demanding guarantees that Turkey would not attack Kurdish forces allied with the United States, Mr. Bolton told reporters that American forces would remain in Syria until the Islamic State was defeated, seemingly contradicting his boss, Mr. Trump. “The Turks don’t like ISIS, but ISIS doesn’t threaten Turkey’s territorial integrity,” said Robert S. Ford, the last American ambassador to Syria. “An autonomous Syrian Kurdish zone in northeastern Syria does threaten Turkey’s territorial integrity.”
“We don’t think the Turks ought to undertake military action that’s not fully coordinated with and agreed to by the United States, at a minimum so they don’t endanger our troops,” Mr. Bolton had said. “I don’t know how you square this circle,” said Mr. Ford, who teaches at Yale and is a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute.
Yet even before Mr. Bolton’s comments angered Mr. Erdogan, discussions were bound to show how far apart the two sides are in their priorities in Syria, political analysts said. Squaring the circle has fallen to Mr. Bolton since Mr. Trump’s announcement, which drew fierce criticism from lawmakers in both parties, blindsided military commanders, prompted the resignation of Defense Secretary Jim Mattis and rattled allies, chiefly Israel.
The main reason that Ankara supports a withdrawal of United States forces, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the Ankara director for the German Marshall Fund of the United States, is that it would end support for the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or Y.P.G., which Turkey regards as a terrorist group, and would also put paid to the idea of Rojava, a Kurdish-run autonomous territory across northern Syria. In Jerusalem, before he traveled to the Turkish capital, Ankara, Mr. Bolton pledged that American forces would remain in Syria until the Islamic State was fully defeated, setting the stage for a more gradual withdrawal than the one Mr. Trump heralded. He also demanded guarantees that Turkey would not attack Kurdish forces allied with the Americans.
The Y.P.G. is widely seen as the Syrian franchise of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the P.K.K., which has been fighting an insurgency against Turkey since the 1980s and is recognized as a terrorist organization by that country, the United States and the European Union. “We don’t think the Turks ought to undertake military action that’s not fully coordinated with and agreed to by the United States, at a minimum so they don’t endanger our troops,” Mr. Bolton told reporters.
If it means an end to American support for the Kurds in Syria, Mr. Unluhisarcikli said, Turkey is even prepared to accept an end to United States air space in eastern Syrian and to lose NATO air and logistical support. Once in Ankara, he also protested to Turkish officials about Mr. Erdogan’s Times piece. In it, the Turkish president wrote that the American-led coalition against the Islamic State had carried out airstrikes in Raqqa, Syria, and Mosul, Iraq, that showed “little or no regard for civilian casualties” — something he said Turkish troops had avoided in their counterterrorism operations.
“If the alternative is continued cooperation with the Y.P.G., they would want them to leave,” he said, describing Turkey’s view of the American presence in Syria. Mr. Erdogan and the Turkish government were clearly rankled. The pro-government, English-language paper Daily Sabah accused Mr. Bolton of being part of a “soft coup against Trump” in Washington, adding, “It was probably a bad idea for Bolton to go rogue and try to impose conditions on the United States withdrawal from Syria.”
Turkish officials would be likely to disabuse Washington of some of its expectations in the meetings, he added. In fact, Mr. Trump has pushed back against suggestions that he is out of sync with his national security adviser. Mr. Pompeo, who joined Mr. Bolton and other officials in urging the president to slow down the withdrawal in Syria, is starting a trip to the Middle East in which he is expected to deliver the same message as Mr. Bolton.
“America will request Turkey’s further cooperation against Daesh,” he said, using the Arabic acronym for the Islamic State. “I am not sure Turkey will deliver.” Aides to Mr. Bolton insisted that he did not feel snubbed by Mr. Erdogan. “The U.S. Embassy in Turkey requested a series of meetings, but due to scheduling conflicts one with President Erdogan was never confirmed,” a spokesman for Mr. Bolton, Garrett Marquis, said in a statement.
Turkish forces have been mustering for an operation into northeastern Syria, but the Turkish military is intent on dealing with the Kurdish militant threat and does not want to extend more than 15 to 20 kilometers, roughly 10 miles, into Syria, Mr. Unluhisarcikli said. Mr. Erdogan said there was no need for a meeting, since he was busy and Mr. Bolton had met with his Turkish counterpart, Ibrahim Kalin, anyway. But he said he was now likely to call Mr. Trump.
The United States would like Turkey to agree not to move against the Y.P.G. and its political branch, the P.Y.D., in the event of an American withdrawal. Even before Mr. Bolton’s comments angered Mr. Erdogan, discussions were bound to show how far apart the two sides were in their priorities in Syria, according to political analysts.
“That is a hopeless cause,” Mr. Unluhisarcikli said. “It is not a question of whether. Turkey will not tolerate the P.K.K. on its borders. So it is only a matter of time.” Turkey’s main motive for supporting a withdrawal of American forces is that it would end support for the Kurdish People’s Protection Units, or Y.P.G., which Turkey regards as a terrorist group, said Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the Ankara director for the German Marshall Fund of the United States. It would also eliminate the prospect of a Kurdish-run autonomous territory in northern Syria, which Turkey regards as a threat to its own stability.
Kurdish representatives in Syria complained that American officials had left them out of talks so far and expressed concern at the conflicting messaging. The Y.P.G. is widely seen as the Syrian franchise of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, the P.K.K., which has been fighting an insurgency against Turkey since the 1980s and is designated as a terrorist organization by that country, the United States and the European Union.
“We’re expecting to hear from the Americans soon, but so far they have not involved us in the talks,” said Nasser Haj Mansour, a Kurdish politician and former adviser to the United States-backed Kurdish fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces. "We are hoping that Turkey would avoid any military action within our borders,” he said. Turkey supports rebels fighting the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad but opposes groups it considers to be terrorists, including the Y.P.G. and the Islamic State. It backs the 30,000-strong Free Syrian Army, renamed the National Liberation Front, which has fought against both the Islamic State and Y.P.G. forces in Afrin.
Newaf Khalil, head of the Europe-based Center for Kurdish Studies, warned that Turkish forces would not listen to American requests not to target Kurdish fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces. The Trump administration would like Turkey to agree not to move against the Y.P.G. and its political branch, known as the P.Y.D., in the event of an American withdrawal. But Mr. Unluhisarcikli called that a “hopeless cause,” adding: “It is not a question of whether. Turkey will not tolerate the P.K.K. on its borders. So it is only a matter of time.”
“The U.S. is saying that the Turks won’t kill the Kurds if they deploy, but definitely they will kill S.D.F. fighters, their families, and many more,’’ he said. ‘‘We’re talking about thousands. There’s a big contradiction in the U.S. statements, and this is not acceptable.” One area where the United States and Turkey could find common ground is how to proceed with the Syrian town Manbij, a strategic crossroads in northern Syria where American forces have a base and where the Kurdish Y.P.G. dominates the local council.
Turkey supports rebels fighting the Syrian government of President Bashar al-Assad in Syria but opposes groups it considers to be terrorists, including the Islamic State and the Y.P.G. It backs the 30,000-strong Free Syrian Army, renamed the National Liberation Front, which has fought against both the Islamic State and Y.P.G. forces in Afrin. Turkey has been threatening to advance on the city, demanding that the Y.P.G. leave and complaining that the United States is dragging its feet in bringing that about. But American forces have been conducting joint patrols with Turkish forces around Manbij, and they have finally reached agreement on the criteria for vetting officials to run the local council.
In his Opinion article, Mr. Erdogan called for “a stabilization force featuring fighters from all parts of Syrian society” as a first step to replace the American-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, which are commanded by members of the Y.P.G. Turkish forces have been mustering for an operation into northeastern Syria, but the Turkish military does not want to extend more than about 10 miles into the country, Mr. Unluhisarcikli said.
Turkish officials have said their immediate concern is what happens to the United States bases, and the matériel and weapons America has brought into Syria, in the event of a withdrawal. After his speech in Parliament, Mr. Erdogan told reporters that an incursion into Syria might happen “at any moment after the Bolton meetings,” the news channel NTV reported.
“There are many issues such as how it is going to happen,” Mr. Kalin, the national security adviser and presidential spokesman, said in an interview last week with NTV news channel. “How they will withdraw, what will happen to the bases there, the recollection of the weapons given to P.Y.D./Y.P.G., the type of the relationship with them, the continuation of the struggle against Daesh, avoiding a security void there: We will handle those in those meetings.” “If they are terrorists, we will do what is necessary no matter where they come from,” Mr. Erdogan said earlier. He suggested that Mr. Bolton and other aides were trying to confuse the understanding he had with Mr. Trump over the withdrawal.
One area where United States and Turkish officials could find some agreement is how to proceed with the Syrian town of Manbij, a strategic crossroads in northern Syria where United States forces have a base and where the local council is dominated by the Kurdish Y.P.G. “Different voices have started emerging from different segments of the administration,” Mr. Erdogan said.
Turkey has been threatening to advance on the city, demanding that the Y.P.G. leave and complaining that the United States is dragging its feet in bringing that about. Nevertheless American forces have been conducting joint patrols with Turkish forces around Manbij and a joint working group has finally reached agreement on the criteria for vetting officials to run the local council.
Although slow, the Manbij road map offers a way for the United States to pull out and leave a workable system behind in a string of northern towns along the Turkish border.
“The primary issue is naturally Manbij, the withdrawal of entire P.Y.D./Y.P.G. forces from Manbij,” Mr. Kalin said. “Of course it is not only that. It is important for them to withdraw from other Arab cities they have invaded. We will go on negotiating those.”
Turkey would not, however, fill the entire void that a United States departure would leave, Mr. Unluhisarcikli said.
Surprise changes in the top of the Turkish military indicate internal disagreement over the Syrian deployment, Metin Gurcan, a military analyst, wrote this week in a column for the news site Al-Monitor.
Two top generals — Gen. Metin Temel, commander of the Second Army, a rising star who commanded the operation in Afrin last spring and is known to be close to Mr. Erdogan; and Brig. Gen. Mustafa Barut, commander of the Fourth Commando Brigade — were abruptly removed by presidential decree on Dec. 31 and reassigned to desk jobs in the General Staff.
The demotions appear to be because of differences between them and Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and the chief of staff, Yasar Guler, including over deployments into Syria.
“Temel wants Ankara to have no part in cooperating with the United States in northeast Syria,” Mr. Gurcan wrote. “He thinks that because Kurdish forces there get substantial U.S. support and are well equipped and trained, it would be risky to launch a midwinter operation there while relying on confusing and undependable messages from the United States.”
Meanwhile Mr. Erdogan will be meeting President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia in coming days, the Turkish media reported.
“The Russians as well are happy about the U.S. withdrawal plan,” Mr. Kalin said. Moscow wants the Syrian government to take control of northeastern Syria while Turkey was still holding out for it to be handed to local councils, he said.
“They have such an inclination but they are not insistent on that,” Mr. Kalin said of Russia. “We believe that it would be more right to do it with elements of local people.”
Mr. Erdogan told reporters after his speech in Parliament that an incursion into Syria might happen “at any moment after the Bolton meetings,’’ the news channel NTV reported. He also added that he might have a phone call with Mr. Trump.