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| How voters want Brexit to be sorted out | |
| (about 9 hours later) | |
| MPs will soon decide the fate of Theresa May's Brexit deal. | MPs will soon decide the fate of Theresa May's Brexit deal. |
| In the coming days, there are bound to be many claims about why they should back or reject the deal, which was struck late last year with the European Union. | In the coming days, there are bound to be many claims about why they should back or reject the deal, which was struck late last year with the European Union. |
| But what do voters want MPs to do? And what do they think should happen if the deal is rejected? | But what do voters want MPs to do? And what do they think should happen if the deal is rejected? |
| An unpopular deal | An unpopular deal |
| Polls suggest the deal has not proved popular with the public. | Polls suggest the deal has not proved popular with the public. |
| YouGov has asked people whether they support or oppose it on no fewer than 11 occasions since it was first unveiled in mid-November. | YouGov has asked people whether they support or oppose it on no fewer than 11 occasions since it was first unveiled in mid-November. |
| Never have more than 27% said that they support the deal, while at least 42% have always said they are against it. | Never have more than 27% said that they support the deal, while at least 42% have always said they are against it. |
| Other polls show a similar pattern. | Other polls show a similar pattern. |
| Opinium found only one in 10 thinks the deal is good for the UK, while as many as half believe it is bad. | Opinium found only one in 10 thinks the deal is good for the UK, while as many as half believe it is bad. |
| Ipsos MORI has reported only a quarter think it would be a good thing for the UK to leave the EU on the terms of the deal. More than six in 10 believe it would be a bad thing. | Ipsos MORI has reported only a quarter think it would be a good thing for the UK to leave the EU on the terms of the deal. More than six in 10 believe it would be a bad thing. |
| It is perhaps unsurprising then that many more voters say MPs should reject the deal than believe they should back it. | It is perhaps unsurprising then that many more voters say MPs should reject the deal than believe they should back it. |
| More like this | More like this |
| What British people think about Brexit now | What British people think about Brexit now |
| How young and old would vote on Brexit now | How young and old would vote on Brexit now |
| Leave and Remain | Leave and Remain |
| Not only do Remain supporters seem inclined to reject the deal, but Leave voters do as well. | Not only do Remain supporters seem inclined to reject the deal, but Leave voters do as well. |
| In its recent polls, YouGov has found an average of 30% of Leave voters back the deal, while 47% are opposed to it. | In its recent polls, YouGov has found an average of 30% of Leave voters back the deal, while 47% are opposed to it. |
| This arguably makes it harder for the PM to say that her deal fulfils the expectations of those who voted Leave in the referendum. | This arguably makes it harder for the PM to say that her deal fulfils the expectations of those who voted Leave in the referendum. |
| That said, many voters have not made up their mind about the deal on offer. | That said, many voters have not made up their mind about the deal on offer. |
| YouGov is still finding that about three in 10 still do not know whether they support it or not, well after the deal was revealed. | YouGov is still finding that about three in 10 still do not know whether they support it or not, well after the deal was revealed. |
| This suggests some voters could yet be won round to Mrs May's proposal. | This suggests some voters could yet be won round to Mrs May's proposal. |
| No deal or a 'public vote'? | No deal or a 'public vote'? |
| While Remain and Leave voters appear to oppose the Brexit deal, they are split over what should be done instead. | While Remain and Leave voters appear to oppose the Brexit deal, they are split over what should be done instead. |
| Opinium has repeatedly asked voters which of five possible options should be pursued if Parliament were to reject the current deal. | Opinium has repeatedly asked voters which of five possible options should be pursued if Parliament were to reject the current deal. |
| None of the options comes close to being backed by a majority. | None of the options comes close to being backed by a majority. |
| The most popular every time - backed on average by just over a quarter - has been to leave without a deal at all. | The most popular every time - backed on average by just over a quarter - has been to leave without a deal at all. |
| Meanwhile, the second most popular option each time - supported by just over a fifth - has been to hold a "public vote" on whether to accept the deal or to stay in the EU. | Meanwhile, the second most popular option each time - supported by just over a fifth - has been to hold a "public vote" on whether to accept the deal or to stay in the EU. |
| While these options enjoy similar levels of support, they come from very different voter groups. | While these options enjoy similar levels of support, they come from very different voter groups. |
| Leaving without a deal is easily the single most popular option among those who voted Leave, chosen by an average of 46%. | Leaving without a deal is easily the single most popular option among those who voted Leave, chosen by an average of 46%. |
| Holding a "public vote" on the deal, with an option to stay in the EU, is favoured among backers of Remain, 38% of whom pick this option. | Holding a "public vote" on the deal, with an option to stay in the EU, is favoured among backers of Remain, 38% of whom pick this option. |
| However, other courses of action also gain support. | However, other courses of action also gain support. |
| Fifteen per cent of all voters prefer attempting to negotiate a better deal, while 12% back Labour's preferred option of holding a general election. | Fifteen per cent of all voters prefer attempting to negotiate a better deal, while 12% back Labour's preferred option of holding a general election. |
| A further 9% support a different "public vote" in which the choice would be either Mrs May's deal or leaving the EU without one. | A further 9% support a different "public vote" in which the choice would be either Mrs May's deal or leaving the EU without one. |
| Do voters want another referendum? | Do voters want another referendum? |
| The idea of a second Brexit vote has attracted particular interest in recent weeks, thanks not least to a high-profile campaign. | The idea of a second Brexit vote has attracted particular interest in recent weeks, thanks not least to a high-profile campaign. |
| However, public support for the idea depends on how the poll question is worded. | However, public support for the idea depends on how the poll question is worded. |
| Polls asking whether there should be a "public" or "people's vote" - without specifying what the options would be - typically find that the idea is relatively popular. | Polls asking whether there should be a "public" or "people's vote" - without specifying what the options would be - typically find that the idea is relatively popular. |
| For example, Survation found that 48% support holding a "people's vote" to gauge the public's reaction to the deal, while 34% are opposed. | For example, Survation found that 48% support holding a "people's vote" to gauge the public's reaction to the deal, while 34% are opposed. |
| Similarly, Populus reported that 44% believe the public should have the "final say" on the deal via a "people's vote", while just 30% are against this. | Similarly, Populus reported that 44% believe the public should have the "final say" on the deal via a "people's vote", while just 30% are against this. |
| However, when voters are asked about holding another referendum that might have the effect of reversing Brexit, the proposal attracts less support. | However, when voters are asked about holding another referendum that might have the effect of reversing Brexit, the proposal attracts less support. |
| ComRes has reported as many as 50% oppose "holding a second referendum on whether to Remain or Leave", with only 40% in favour. | ComRes has reported as many as 50% oppose "holding a second referendum on whether to Remain or Leave", with only 40% in favour. |
| Similarly, according to polling commissioned by Lord Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman of the Conservative party, 47% are against holding a "second referendum", while 38% are in favour. | Similarly, according to polling commissioned by Lord Ashcroft, a former deputy chairman of the Conservative party, 47% are against holding a "second referendum", while 38% are in favour. |
| In that scenario, voters would choose between leaving the EU under the terms of Mrs May's deal and remaining in the EU. | In that scenario, voters would choose between leaving the EU under the terms of Mrs May's deal and remaining in the EU. |
| The wording of the poll question seems to make a significant difference, particularly to Leave voters. | The wording of the poll question seems to make a significant difference, particularly to Leave voters. |
| Putting "the people" in charge of Brexit appeals to some Leavers, but a ballot which could potentially reverse the decision does not. | Putting "the people" in charge of Brexit appeals to some Leavers, but a ballot which could potentially reverse the decision does not. |
| Broadly, the idea of another referendum appears as controversial to voters as Brexit itself continues to be. | Broadly, the idea of another referendum appears as controversial to voters as Brexit itself continues to be. |
| When it comes to how people say they would vote if there were another referendum, the country still appears quite evenly divided. | When it comes to how people say they would vote if there were another referendum, the country still appears quite evenly divided. |
| Remain, with an average score of 53% is enjoying just a narrow lead over Leave, which scored 47% in the most recent polls. | Remain, with an average score of 53% is enjoying just a narrow lead over Leave, which scored 47% in the most recent polls. |
| About this piece | About this piece |
| Sir John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University, senior fellow at NatCen Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe. He is also chief commentator at WhatUKthinks.org. | Sir John Curtice is professor of politics at Strathclyde University, senior fellow at NatCen Social Research and The UK in a Changing Europe. He is also chief commentator at WhatUKthinks.org. |
| Edited by Eleanor Lawrie | Edited by Eleanor Lawrie |