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US government shutdown: Where do we go from here? US government shutdown: Six ways it could end
(7 days later)
President Donald Trump has called the US-Mexico border a national security crisis while Democrats accuse him of holding America hostage over a fake threat. As a result of their standoff over funding Mr Trump's wall, the US government has been partially shut down for 20 days. President Donald Trump's standoff with Democrats over a border wall has dragged the US into the longest-ever government shutdown. Both sides appear to be dug in, so how might it end?
Both sides continued to dig their heels in over the issue in addresses to the nation on Tuesday night - so what happens now? Mr Trump continues to call the border a national security crisis while Democrats say he is holding America hostage over an exaggerated threat.
As the nation waits for Washington to move forward, here are a few options open to Mr Trump, with analysis from the BBC's Anthony Zurcher. As the nation waits for Washington to move forward, here are a few ways the situation could evolve.
1. Trump declares a national emergency The BBC's Anthony Zurcher also chips in with his thoughts and his probability rating.
The president's address fell just shy of declaring a national emergency, but White House Press Secretary Sarah Sanders told reporters on Wednesday the move is "certainly still on the table". 1. Things get so bad that Trump caves
Airport security staff, who have been working without pay since December, have begun leaving their jobs, according to officials. Terminals in some major airports have begun experiencing delays or are closing as a result.
Food safety has also come into question as agencies struggle to operate. And on Tuesday the White House said it had doubled its estimate of the economic strain caused by the shutdown.
Mr Trump's public opinion is also suffering, according to new polling.
Anthony: There's always the possibility that the president could just throw in the towel. He did it when the heat became intolerable on his family-separation policy last year. He could do it again, if it becomes increasingly unlikely that Democrats are going to make concessions and the extended shutdown starts eating into the robust US economic growth that he frequently touts.
The big question would be whether his base would go along with this. Would they view a three-week shutdown as enough of an effort to fulfil this campaign promise?
Mr Trump would certainly take heat from conservative commentators such as Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter, but at some point the price of the shutdown might exceed the pain of backing down.
Chances: 20%
2. Trump strikes a deal with Congress
Mr Trump has been meeting congressional leaders but last week's attempts to resolve the shutdown ended with him walking out when Democrats refused to budge.
But as it drags on, pressure is mounting on Capitol Hill.
Anthony: It's a testament to the determination of both sides in the shutdown confrontation that, for the most part, partisan ranks appear to be holding firm. A handful of Republicans in the House of Representatives have voted to reopen the government without wall funding, while the Republican leadership of the Senate has successfully squelched calls for a vote of any kind.
Meanwhile, Democrats have been steadfast - at least publicly - in their resistance to any kind of wall funding.
That deadlock may not hold for much longer, however. As the pain from the shutdown spills out beyond just the 800,000 federal employees affected into the public at large, the pressure to reach any kind of a deal is growing.
In the end the most probable deal would involve some new, vaguely worded border security funding that doesn't explicitly give the president money for his much-promised wall.
Both sides could declare victory, and both sides would be right (and wrong).
Chances: 40% and creeping up
3. The Lindsey Graham solution
Appearing on Fox News Sunday, Republican Senator Lindsey Graham suggested the president reopen the government for three weeks of negotiations. If talks are still stalled by the end, he could declare a national emergency.
The following day, President Trump appeared to reject that plan. But Mr Graham was undeterred, joining forces with other senators from bother parties to draft a letter - obtained by Axios - requesting a short-term spending bill.
According to a leaked draft of the letter, the senators are requesting Mr Trump to pause the shutdown "to give Congress time to develop and vote on a bipartisan agreement". It does not mention a border wall or national emergency.
Anthony: Graham is drafting a letter to the president that suggests a full debate on border security in exchange for a 30-day reopening of the government. It's an offer the president has rejected in the past - but it at least buys both sides some time (and gets federal employees their past-due paycheques).
Chances: 10%
4. Trump declares a national emergency
If Mr Trump does invoke his presidential powers, he could bypass Congress and obtain the means for his wall through military resources.If Mr Trump does invoke his presidential powers, he could bypass Congress and obtain the means for his wall through military resources.
Critics would probably consider this a flagrant misuse of power, and even after Mr Trump drafts his declaration, he must inform Congress of exactly what powers he is claiming. Emergencies are usually declared in times of crisis, when the White House needs funds quickly and cannot wait for Congress to approve it.
Congress could then void it with a vote in both the Senate and House of Representatives - but under US laws, a repeal of emergency status would still need Mr Trump's sign-off to go into effect. Critics would consider this a flagrant misuse of power and both political and legal battles would ensue.
In such a situation, it seems unlikely that Mr Trump would let that pass, sparking a legal battle between the two branches of government.
But the 1976 National Emergencies Act, which doled out unilateral authority in emergencies to presidents, as well as a court history of deferring to the president's national security decisions, could be in his favour.But the 1976 National Emergencies Act, which doled out unilateral authority in emergencies to presidents, as well as a court history of deferring to the president's national security decisions, could be in his favour.
In arguing that there is a crisis to be dealt with, Mr Trump said 300 US citizens died each week from heroin, "90% of which floods across from our southern border". Anthony Zurcher: For a while, it seemed like this would be a clever way for Mr Trump to extricate himself from the shutdown crisis. He could make the announcement to redirect existing funds to the border, sign legislation reopening the government and declare victory. Yes, the action would get bogged down in the courts, but a protracted legal fight might be a useful campaign issue in 2020.
It is true nearly all US heroin comes from Mexico, but according to Mr Trump's own Drug Enforcement Administration, most of it comes through legal ports of entry. So a wall would be ineffective. But some Republicans have balked at the prospect of a Democratic president using emergency declarations to enact gun control, nationalised healthcare or stringent environmental regulation.
And ahead of an election year, it is unlikely the president would get complete support for such a controversial measure from his own party. At some point Mr Trump might get so frustrated he ignores the conserves of his fellow Republicans, of course. It wouldn't be the first time.
As Senator Marco Rubio told CNBC on Wednesday: "We have to be careful about endorsing broad uses of executive power." Chances: 20% and dropping
Anthony Zurcher: Donald Trump is running out of leverage in his negotiations with Democrats. 5. The Democrats cave
The "national emergency" threat is just about the only card he has left to play - but Tuesday night, when he could make his case before the nation, was probably his best chance to play it. Little sign of a capitulation happening, with the leadership steadfast in their refusal to bow to President Trump's demands for a wall.
While taking such a step would allow the president to claim he is taking action while moving the battle to the courts, even some conservatives fear it would set a bad precedent. Seven House Democrats accepted the president's invitation to the White House for talks on Wednesday, but their statement afterwards gave no hint of compromise.
Democrats may conclude he is bluffing - putting the president back at square one. Anthony: The parody website The Onion recently ran an article about how even Democratic Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer was surprised he hadn't caved yet to Republican demands. It's meant as a joke, but there's some truth to it. In the past Democrats have been more keen to seek middle ground and compromise, even when their base thought they conceding too much.
2. Trump strikes a deal with Congress This time around, however, the Democrats have shown hardly a crack in their resistance. Mr Schumer and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi have stood almost literally arm-in-arm in their opposition to Mr Trump's demands. The rank and file have largely been quiet, even though the pain being felt by government employees - whose unions are big Democratic supporters - has been acute.
Mr Trump met congressional leaders at the White House on Wednesday in another effort to resolve the shutdown, only to end up walking out when Democrats remained firm on no wall funding. Instead, Ms Pelosi has been playing hardball, even suggesting the president should delay his high-profile State of the Union Address scheduled for later this month. Democrats are buoyed by a number of polls showing that not only is a majority of the public opposed to Mr Trump's proposal for an expanded border wall, they blame the president for the shutdown as well.
Meanwhile, pressure has been mounting on Capitol Hill - as have resistance efforts. For the moment, the Democrats have the high ground in this confrontation - and they are acting like it.
On Tuesday, Senate Democrats shot down a bipartisan Middle East policy bill in protest, and could continue to block legislation in protest at the government shutdown. Chances: 9%
"We cannot be business as usual, with the government shut down, people not getting paychecks and people getting hurt," Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington told CNN after the vote. 6. Shutdown continues
Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell on Wednesday accused the Democrats of thwarting the president out of "spite" and a "new partisan allergy to the subject of border security". No, it's not an ending, as such. It's the opposite of an ending, but it's a way forward - it's possible the shutdown may just carry on.
At the same time, Democratic Representative Hakeem Jeffries, speaking to reporters after a closed House Democratic Caucus meeting, said "with each passing day", his party expects more Republican willingness to negotiate. Some 800,000 federal workers missed their first paycheque this month. Many have been furloughed - temporarily laid off - but those deemed essential have been working since 22 December without pay.
Mr Jeffries reiterated that House Democrats are willing to use Senate Republicans' prior legislation to re-open the government. Close to 50,000 workers have been now called back by the administration to work unpaid on key tasks like tax refunds and food safety.
"That to me seems like a reasonable compromise," he said. "What we are saying is we won't be blackmailed into a discussion that finds us yielding billions of dollars for a border wall that no one believes will be effective." Over the last 26 days, federal employees have shared their fears of affording rent, making credit card payments and putting food on the table. Hundreds have turned to fundraising or side-jobs to make ends meet.
All nine congressional representatives (including one Republican) of the districts bordering Mexico are against Mr Trump's wall.
Anthony Zurcher: As the shutdown gets worse, it's going to be increasingly difficult for Mr Trump to keep Republicans in Congress from breaking ranks.
Already there are three Republican senators on record calling for the government to be reopened without additional wall funding. When the House voted on the Democratic bill to reopen the government, seven Republicans joined them.
In future votes that number is sure to grow. Members in both chambers are all going to be looking for an exit ramp in negotiations to get out of this mess.
If Republicans can't offer Democrats anything to address the situation for undocumented migrants already in the US, the most likely outcome is new, vaguely worded border security funding that doesn't explicitly give the president money for his much-promised wall.
3. The shutdown continues
Some 800,000 federal workers are expected to miss their first pay cheque this week if the president and lawmakers are unable to reach a compromise.
Many have been furloughed - temporarily laid off - but those deemed essential have been working since 22 December without pay.
And if the partial shutdown lasts through the weekend, it will become the longest government shutdown in US history.
Over the last 20 days, federal employees have shared their fears of affording rent, making credit card payments and putting food on the table. Hundreds have turned to fundraising or side-jobs to make ends meet.
Airport security staff, who have been working without pay, have begun leaving their jobs or are seriously considering doing so over the shutdown, according to officials.
Thousands of contract workers - who are not entitled to any back pay from Congress - and small businesses working closely with federal agencies have also been suffering.Thousands of contract workers - who are not entitled to any back pay from Congress - and small businesses working closely with federal agencies have also been suffering.
Anthony Zurcher: In the early days of the shutdown there were reports that the White House did not sufficiently consider the implications of an extended period without full government funding. Anthony Zurcher: The president has ordered tens of thousands of federal employees back to work - without pay. It's an acknowledgment that the consequences of the government shutdown are worsening and a way of alleviating some of the pain. Many Americans are anxious to get their federal tax returns, and the Internal Revenue Service is getting the manpower to handle the paperwork.
The much cited 800,000 number for federal employees - most of whom are scattered across the US and not paper-pushing bureaucrats in Washington - only starts to paint the full scope of the impact. That may buy the president some time and allow the shutdown to drag on. But federal employees can't work for free forever. Some are suing the government to end this practice. Others are threatening to call in sick or quit en masse.
The administration is promising that tax refunds will be processed on time and federal food assistance will continue, but it seems clear the administration didn't realise this was a possible outcome when they began. The shutdown may stretch on, but it can't continue forever.
This may be a "partial" government shutdown, but the impact on the lives of Americans - and on the US economy as a whole - is significant and growing. Chances: 1%