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| May's authority has been further dented, but worse surely lies ahead | May's authority has been further dented, but worse surely lies ahead |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| Chit-chat with Tory backbenchers was probably the last thing Theresa May was in the mood for after MPs voted to serve Downing Street with a three-day deadline for setting out a Brexit plan B. | |
| But the prime minister hosted a Downing Street drinks party with colleagues on Wednesday night as part of a last-ditch charm offensive before next week’s vote in parliament, which even close allies admit she looks set to lose by a significant margin. | |
| One guest was the author of her latest misfortune – her Oxford contemporary and old friend Dominic Grieve, whose amendment has further narrowed her room for manoeuvre in the next few febrile days. | One guest was the author of her latest misfortune – her Oxford contemporary and old friend Dominic Grieve, whose amendment has further narrowed her room for manoeuvre in the next few febrile days. |
| In one sense, the angry clashes at Westminster on Wednesday, and the second defeat for the government in two days, changed little. While, formally, the EU withdrawal act gave the government 21 days to return to the Commons if the vote were lost – to set out what it plans to do next – there would have been intense political pressure to do so sooner. | In one sense, the angry clashes at Westminster on Wednesday, and the second defeat for the government in two days, changed little. While, formally, the EU withdrawal act gave the government 21 days to return to the Commons if the vote were lost – to set out what it plans to do next – there would have been intense political pressure to do so sooner. |
| Theresa May suffers Commons defeat over Brexit plan B | Theresa May suffers Commons defeat over Brexit plan B |
| May had already reassured cabinet ministers that she would act more swiftly than that, and a government spokesman said on Wednesday: “We would seek to provide certainty, quickly.” | May had already reassured cabinet ministers that she would act more swiftly than that, and a government spokesman said on Wednesday: “We would seek to provide certainty, quickly.” |
| Grieve’s amendment gives the UK prime minister a hard deadline, and underlines rebel backbenchers’ determination to use every tactic at their disposal to bind her hands. | Grieve’s amendment gives the UK prime minister a hard deadline, and underlines rebel backbenchers’ determination to use every tactic at their disposal to bind her hands. |
| But almost as significant was the row that led to its passage, with the Commons Speaker, John Bercow, facing down his own clerks, May’s chief whip and the leader of the House of Commons, , and insisting Grieve’s amendment could be voted on. | But almost as significant was the row that led to its passage, with the Commons Speaker, John Bercow, facing down his own clerks, May’s chief whip and the leader of the House of Commons, , and insisting Grieve’s amendment could be voted on. |
| One pro-EU Tory said of Bercow: “He was brilliant today, utterly brilliant.” | One pro-EU Tory said of Bercow: “He was brilliant today, utterly brilliant.” |
| The government fears it sets a precedent by jeopardising a key power – the ability to decide on the business of the House of Commons. With backbenchers conducting a guerrilla campaign against a no-deal Brexit, that is the last thing Downing Street needs. | The government fears it sets a precedent by jeopardising a key power – the ability to decide on the business of the House of Commons. With backbenchers conducting a guerrilla campaign against a no-deal Brexit, that is the last thing Downing Street needs. |
| For May, who sat implacable on the frontbench on Wednesday as the row raged around her, it was yet another heavy blow to her dented authority. But the prime minister made another significant concession, in an attempt to win over some leavers. | For May, who sat implacable on the frontbench on Wednesday as the row raged around her, it was yet another heavy blow to her dented authority. But the prime minister made another significant concession, in an attempt to win over some leavers. |
| The Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, said the government would accept an amendment tabled by the Tory MP Hugo Swire. Among other things, if the future relationship with the EU were not negotiated by mid-2020, it would give MPs the chance to choose between extending the transition period and entering the Irish backstop. | The Brexit secretary, Steve Barclay, said the government would accept an amendment tabled by the Tory MP Hugo Swire. Among other things, if the future relationship with the EU were not negotiated by mid-2020, it would give MPs the chance to choose between extending the transition period and entering the Irish backstop. |
| The mooted extension to the transition period is a new idea being put forward by the EU to help Theresa May square the circle created by the written agreement last December and the draft withdrawal agreement in March. | The mooted extension to the transition period is a new idea being put forward by the EU to help Theresa May square the circle created by the written agreement last December and the draft withdrawal agreement in March. |
| That committed the UK and the EU to ensuring there was no divergence between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. | That committed the UK and the EU to ensuring there was no divergence between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. |
| But it also, after an intervention by the Democratic Unionist party, committed the UK (not the EU) not to have any trading differences between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. | But it also, after an intervention by the Democratic Unionist party, committed the UK (not the EU) not to have any trading differences between Northern Ireland and Great Britain. |
| The problem is that these are two irreconcilable agreements. They also impinge on the legally binding Good Friday agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland and in some senses pooled sovereignty of Northern Ireland giving people a birthright to be Irish or British or both. | The problem is that these are two irreconcilable agreements. They also impinge on the legally binding Good Friday agreement, which brought peace to Northern Ireland and in some senses pooled sovereignty of Northern Ireland giving people a birthright to be Irish or British or both. |
| If the UK leaves the EU along with the customs union and the single market then the border in Ireland becomes the only land border between the UK and the EU forcing customs, tax and regulatory controls. | If the UK leaves the EU along with the customs union and the single market then the border in Ireland becomes the only land border between the UK and the EU forcing customs, tax and regulatory controls. |
| The backstop is one of three options agreed by the EU and the UK in December and would only come into play if option A (overall agreement) or option B (a tailor-made solution) cannot be agreed by the end of transition. The Irish have likened it to an insurance policy. | The backstop is one of three options agreed by the EU and the UK in December and would only come into play if option A (overall agreement) or option B (a tailor-made solution) cannot be agreed by the end of transition. The Irish have likened it to an insurance policy. |
| The new EU idea is to extend the transition period to allow time to get to option A or B. | The new EU idea is to extend the transition period to allow time to get to option A or B. |
| But an extension is problematic for Brexiters and leave voters, who want the UK to get out of the EU as soon as possible. | But an extension is problematic for Brexiters and leave voters, who want the UK to get out of the EU as soon as possible. |
| The Irish and the EU will also still need the backstop in the withdrawal agreement, which must be signed before the business of the trade deal can get under way. Otherwise it is a no-deal Brexit. | The Irish and the EU will also still need the backstop in the withdrawal agreement, which must be signed before the business of the trade deal can get under way. Otherwise it is a no-deal Brexit. |
| Extending the transition into 2021 would mean another year of paying into the EU budget. Britain would have to negotiate this but it has been estimated at anywhere between £10bn and £17bn. | Extending the transition into 2021 would mean another year of paying into the EU budget. Britain would have to negotiate this but it has been estimated at anywhere between £10bn and £17bn. |
| Staying in the EU for another year would also mean continued freedom of movement and being under the European court of justice, which Brexiters would oppose. | Staying in the EU for another year would also mean continued freedom of movement and being under the European court of justice, which Brexiters would oppose. |
| Downing Street is also expecting some assurances from the EU27 between now and the moment of truth next Tuesday, though not the overhaul of the legally binding withdrawal agreement the Democratic Unionist party had demanded. | Downing Street is also expecting some assurances from the EU27 between now and the moment of truth next Tuesday, though not the overhaul of the legally binding withdrawal agreement the Democratic Unionist party had demanded. |
| Ultimately, though, few at Westminster believe May’s earlier tactic of sending MPs off home for Christmas to calm down and think about their responsibility to deliver on the referendum, had altered the dynamic in this deeply divided parliament. | Ultimately, though, few at Westminster believe May’s earlier tactic of sending MPs off home for Christmas to calm down and think about their responsibility to deliver on the referendum, had altered the dynamic in this deeply divided parliament. |
| And as the fraught discussions at cabinet on Tuesday underlined, there are scant few options available if the vote is lost, and none of them look appealing. | And as the fraught discussions at cabinet on Tuesday underlined, there are scant few options available if the vote is lost, and none of them look appealing. |
| May could make another mad dash to Brussels; give MPs the opportunity to vote on a series of alternative Brexit options (which Tory whips believe might focus minds on the lack of a majority for any alternative to their deal); announce that she plans to leave without a deal; or even press the nuclear button and promise a general election. | May could make another mad dash to Brussels; give MPs the opportunity to vote on a series of alternative Brexit options (which Tory whips believe might focus minds on the lack of a majority for any alternative to their deal); announce that she plans to leave without a deal; or even press the nuclear button and promise a general election. |
| Whatever she does she will almost certainly face a full-blown vote of no confidence from Jeremy Corbyn within days or even hours of the vote next Tuesday. | Whatever she does she will almost certainly face a full-blown vote of no confidence from Jeremy Corbyn within days or even hours of the vote next Tuesday. |
| Before the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, losing a vote on the finance bill on one day and another less than 24 hours later would have most likely proved fatal to a government’s authority. | Before the Fixed-term Parliaments Act, losing a vote on the finance bill on one day and another less than 24 hours later would have most likely proved fatal to a government’s authority. |
| But opposition parties now need to win a formal vote of no confidence and it is unclear whether either the DUP or Tory rebels hate the deal enough to want to tear down the government. | But opposition parties now need to win a formal vote of no confidence and it is unclear whether either the DUP or Tory rebels hate the deal enough to want to tear down the government. |
| May cannot now be unseated by Tory MPs, who tried the no confidence gambit before Christmas and failed, and her cabinet is bitterly divided about the way forward. | May cannot now be unseated by Tory MPs, who tried the no confidence gambit before Christmas and failed, and her cabinet is bitterly divided about the way forward. |
| Some Tory colleagues believe the prime minister’s fabled resilience is such that she could try to keep putting her much maligned deal to MPs, grimly pressing home the fact that, as she repeatedly said on Wednesday, “the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the deal”. | Some Tory colleagues believe the prime minister’s fabled resilience is such that she could try to keep putting her much maligned deal to MPs, grimly pressing home the fact that, as she repeatedly said on Wednesday, “the only way to avoid no deal is to vote for the deal”. |
| Whichever path she chooses, more dramatic clashes with parliament lie ahead within a matter of days, however calm the chatter over the canapes at No 10. | Whichever path she chooses, more dramatic clashes with parliament lie ahead within a matter of days, however calm the chatter over the canapes at No 10. |
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