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Brexit vote: Gove tells Tories they can 'improve' outcome if May's deal passed - Politics live Brexit vote: Gove tells Tories they can 'improve' outcome if May's deal passed - Politics live
(35 minutes later)
John Bercow, the speaker, now turns to the debate. Cox says the regulatory provisions in the backstop are standard non-regression clauses of the kind you get in free trade agreements.
He says, under the business motion, he can now select amendments. The UK will have regulatory flexibility, “if we wish to avail ourselves of it”, he says.
He has selected four he says: Jeremy Corbyn’s, Ian Blackford\’s, Sir Edward Leigh’s, and John Baron’s. Cox says, once EU fishermen realise they cannot get “a single cod or plaice” from UK waters under the backstop, they will put great pressure on their governments to ensure the backstop does not continue.
If amendment b) (Leigh’s) is agreed to, amendment f) (Baron’s) falls, he says. Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, says the EU has made it clear that the backstop cannot be permanent.
He now sets out what will happen at the end of the debate. He says no Danish, Dutch or Belgian fisherman will be allowed to point the prow of their boat one metre into British waters under the backstop.
This is from Sky’s Beth Rigby, who has been speaking to a minister about the speaker’s decision not to select the Murrison amendment.
Ask senior minister if its a disaster. Says the Leigh/Baron amendments at least send a political message about the concerns of MPs that need to be answered. Adds that it "would have been a problem" had none been selected....... https://t.co/CPO06QR6u0
Sylvia Hernon, the independent MP from Northern Ireland, intervenes. She says Cox previously described the backstop as “an instrument of pain” for the EU. Will he elaborate?
Cox says he wants to move on to that. He says most of what is in the withdrawal agreements is entirely sensible. It allows matters to be settled orderly.
There are misconceptions about the withdrawal agreement, he says. People claim it allows the ECJ to have jurisdiction over UK law. “It does not,” he bellows. He repeats the phrase several times. Once the clauses relating to the ECJ have wound out, it will no longer have jurisdiction, he says.
And he says the same applies to the argument about EU rules continuing to have force after Brexit.
Cox explains what the withdrawal agreement achieves. It settles the bills, and allows legal agreements to continue.
He says the transition will be like an “airlock”. An airlock allows the human body to adopt to a new environment, he says. And this deal will allow the UK to adapt to the bright new world on offer after Brexit.
It will create a bridge for the departure from the EU, he says.
Nigel Dodds, the DUP leader at Westminster, intervenes to say that Theresa May failed to get legally binding changes to the withdrawal agreement.
Cox says Dodds is right to say that the EU has not changed the withdrawal agreement. But the assurances offered have legal force, he says.
The main thrust of Cox’s speech so far has been that leaving the EU without a deal would cause chaos. I will post full quote shortly.
Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, is now opening the debate. And his speech is first-rate – on the basis of what I’ve heard so far, quite easily the best rhetorical performance we’ve had since MPs embarked on this enterprise on Wednesday last week. It is probably a bit OTT for some people’s tastes. But not the Speaker’s; John Bercow has just described Cox as having “the intellect of Einstein and the eloquence of Demosthenes”.
Here is some Twitter comment on John Bercow’s decision not to call the Andrew Murrison amendment.
From my colleague Paul Johnson
So Bercow says no to amendment from Tory MP Andrew Murrison - which would have limited backstop. -Another lifeline for May has disappearedLive updates via @AndrewSparrow here:https://t.co/AIBHtFN9lS
From the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar
Crucially, Speaker does NOT select Murrison amendment which could've helped Downing Street formulate Plan B - they could've taken it to Brussels to show MPs backed PM plan IF backstop issue could be resolved.
From the Independent’s Jon Stone
On the one hand, Bercow not picking Murrison amendment is surprising given it is in the spotlight. But on the other hand, it is pretty sensible given it is not really a valid amendment and if passed would be incompatible with the treaty MPs are being asked to ratify
From the Telegraph’s Anna Mikhailova
John Bercow selects 4 amendments - but not Andrew Murrison's or Hugo Swire's.Downing Street's hopes of using amendments to minimise defeat have been dashed.
John Bercow, the Speaker, now turns to the debate. He says, under the business motion, he can now select amendments.
He has selected four he says: Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn’s, SNP leader at Westminster Ian Blackford’s, and the Tory MPs Sir Edward Leigh’s and John Baron’s.
If amendment b) (Leigh’s) is agreed to, amendment f) (Baron’s) falls, he says. He now sets out what will happen at the end of the debate.
He says at 7pm Corbyn will be invited to move his amendment. If that is passed, the original question will be put.He says at 7pm Corbyn will be invited to move his amendment. If that is passed, the original question will be put.
Then Blackford’s amendment will be put to a vote. If it is passed, the original question will be put. Then Blackford’s amendment will be put to a vote. If it is passed, the original question will be put. Then Leigh’s amendment will be put to a vote. If it is passed, the original question will be put.
Then Leigh’s amendment will be put to a vote. If it is passed, the original question will be put.
Then Baron’s amendment will be put to a vote. If it is passed, the original question will be put.Then Baron’s amendment will be put to a vote. If it is passed, the original question will be put.
Then the main vote will take place.Then the main vote will take place.
Bercow refuses to call the Andrew Murrison amendment. (See 12.54pm.) This is significant because, although the Murrison amendment was not formally backed by government, some in government favoured it because, if it were passed, it would enable the government to present the EU with an ultimatum.Bercow refuses to call the Andrew Murrison amendment. (See 12.54pm.) This is significant because, although the Murrison amendment was not formally backed by government, some in government favoured it because, if it were passed, it would enable the government to present the EU with an ultimatum.
He also refuses to call the Hugo Swire amendment and the John Mann amendment - two amendments the government said it would back. (But the fact that the government has said it accepts them means it is still theoretically committed to accept what they say, even though MPs will not vote on this.) He also refuses to call the Hugo Swire amendment and the John Mann amendment – two amendments the government said it would back. (But the fact that the government has said it accepts them means it is still theoretically committed to accept what they say, even though MPs will not vote on this.)
MPs will vote on two amendments specifically dealing with the backstop, Edward Leigh’s and John Baron’s, as well as a Labour one and an SNP one.MPs will vote on two amendments specifically dealing with the backstop, Edward Leigh’s and John Baron’s, as well as a Labour one and an SNP one.
There will be no vote on a second referendum amendment. The Lib Dems tabled on on this topic, but Bercow has not called it.There will be no vote on a second referendum amendment. The Lib Dems tabled on on this topic, but Bercow has not called it.
There should be five votes in total, with the result of the final vote, yes/no on Theresa May’s deal, coming at around 8.15pm. There should be five votes in total, with the result of the final vote, yes/no on Theresa May’s deal, coming at about 8.15pm.
From my colleague Dan SabbaghFrom my colleague Dan Sabbagh
T May lurking behind the Speaker's chair as we wait to see what amendments have been selected. Chatting and joking with colleagues. But does she not know what he has picked?T May lurking behind the Speaker's chair as we wait to see what amendments have been selected. Chatting and joking with colleagues. But does she not know what he has picked?
The DUP has put out a statement saying the Andrew Murrison amendment, which says the withdrawal agreement should be amended “to specify that the backstop solution shall expire on 31 December 2021”, is not enough to make the deal acceptable to them. A DUP spokesman said:The DUP has put out a statement saying the Andrew Murrison amendment, which says the withdrawal agreement should be amended “to specify that the backstop solution shall expire on 31 December 2021”, is not enough to make the deal acceptable to them. A DUP spokesman said:
Parliament is today being asked to vote on the legally binding withdrawal agreement negotiated by the prime minister. That does not contain an end date on the backstop.Parliament is today being asked to vote on the legally binding withdrawal agreement negotiated by the prime minister. That does not contain an end date on the backstop.
The prime minister has known for many weeks what we require.The prime minister has known for many weeks what we require.
Amendments tabled in parliament will have no bearing on the legal status of what has been negotiated. What is required is for the prime minister is to go and secure legally binding changes as she promised.Amendments tabled in parliament will have no bearing on the legal status of what has been negotiated. What is required is for the prime minister is to go and secure legally binding changes as she promised.
Today’s very belated amendments are part of the internal parliamentary games and do not change the need to secure legally binding changes.Today’s very belated amendments are part of the internal parliamentary games and do not change the need to secure legally binding changes.
In the Commons the Conservative MP Nick Boles has just move his EU withdrawal (no 2) bill. He explained on the Today programme yesterday how this would work.In the Commons the Conservative MP Nick Boles has just move his EU withdrawal (no 2) bill. He explained on the Today programme yesterday how this would work.
In the Commons health questions are now over. John Bercow, the speaker, is taking points of order. Then we will get a 10-minute rule bill (which, confusingly, can go on for 20 minutes, even though is normally over in about five minutes). In the Commons, health questions are over. John Bercow, the Speaker, is taking points of order. Then we will get a 10-minute rule bill (which, confusingly, can go on for 20 minutes, even though is normally over in about five minutes).
After that the debate will start. At that point Bercow will announce what amendments are being taken.After that the debate will start. At that point Bercow will announce what amendments are being taken.
Sky’s Beth Rigby has more on what happened at cabinet.Sky’s Beth Rigby has more on what happened at cabinet.
NEW: And from a cabinet source - told MP was "resolute" in pushing on with her deal. But source also told me remainers in cabinet clear No Deal won't happen and are pushing the PM - again - to try to build cross-party consensusNEW: And from a cabinet source - told MP was "resolute" in pushing on with her deal. But source also told me remainers in cabinet clear No Deal won't happen and are pushing the PM - again - to try to build cross-party consensus
Some useful benchmarks for later.Some useful benchmarks for later.
Useful chart from @PA on biggest government defeats in House of Commons. Data crunching by Guardian has PM losing by 213. Sky News has it on 225. Looking pretty bleak. pic.twitter.com/Ecl5w662VaUseful chart from @PA on biggest government defeats in House of Commons. Data crunching by Guardian has PM losing by 213. Sky News has it on 225. Looking pretty bleak. pic.twitter.com/Ecl5w662Va
The Press Association has revised its projection of how the vote will go from the figures I quoted earlier. (See 11.53am.) It now says Theresa May seems to be heading for defeat by around 160 votes.
Latest @PA projection based on MPs who have spoken on the record of their intention to vote against. Numbers of this order would suggest a government defeat of around 160. #BrexitVote pic.twitter.com/eASpHGLClG
Here is some briefing from today’s cabinet.
From the Sun’s Tom Newton Dunn
I hear the PM just told Cabinet she will push on with her Brexit deal, no matter the size of tonight's defeat, as "it’s the only option". A big push from Rudd/Clark/Gauke/Perry to open talks with moderate Labour MPs, but rejected by Hunt/Javid/Fox/Lewis/Truss/Williamson.
Also: Greg Clark pushed the PM hard to formally rule out No Deal if the vote is lost, citing the “devastating” effect it would have on the car industry. She gave no firm reply.
Most striking contribution in Cabinet came from Brandon Lewis, someone in the room tells me. Tory chairman came down very hard on opening talks with Labour: “The party wouldn’t wear it,” he said.
From the Telegraph’s Steven Swinford
New from Cabinet:Told Amber Rudd called for an indicative vote on a motion to formally rule out no deal if PM is defeated this evening. She was supported by Clark, Gauke and Lidington. But there was strong pushback from Williamson, Javid , Leadsom, Hunt, Truss and Wright.
Greg Clark made a lengthy intervention on the potential impact of a no-deal Brexit on just in time deliveries. Some of his colleagues felt like they'd heard it before. 'It went on for some time,' said one.
Both Brandon Lewis and Jeremy Wright - Theresa May loyalists - intervened against Amber Rudd's idea of having an indicative vote to rule out a no-deal Brexit.
Also at Cabinet:The PM was warned not to reach out to the Labour Party in a bid to get her deal through.Eurosceptic ministers said the Govt should be using energy if defeated to secure further concessions from the EU, particularly on the backstop.
From the Mirror’s Pippa Crerar
NEW: No 10 says the PM told her cabinet that “the Government is the servant of the people” and she believes “passionately” that they must deliver on the result of the referendum.
Asked if they discussed Plan B, the PM’s official spokesman said: “Cabinet discussed the build up to the vote, the vote itself and what would happen after the vote”. So that’s a yes.
Once vote has taken place PM will respond “quickly” to the result. Read for that: immediately. Different reports on whether she told Cabinet she was planning to stick to her Plan A.
Will she accept vote of Parliament tonight? Her official spokesman says: “Yes”. But then adds PM is determined to deliver on result of referendum. She’s unlikely to be able to do both.
Another question from BTL.
@Andrew, Is an immediate election really inevitable if the Commons passes a vote of no confidence in Mrs May's government? Could not, under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, the Privy Council be asked to recommend to the Queen someone to be an interim PM leading a government which promised to resolve the current impasse, legislate to annul the fixed term act and then call and then call a general election. That might just focus some minds, for an immediate election would surely be extremely fractious and unpopular.
If May lost a confidence motion, a general election would not be inevitable. It would only happen if no alternative PM was able to win a confidence motion within 14 days. The Fixed-term Parliaments Act does not say who should get a chance at forming a government, or in what order, but in practice May would stay as PM until she was able to recommend a successor to the Queen, and she would only do that when she had an assurance that someone - Boris Johnson? Jeremy Corbyn? Someone else entirely? - had the numbers to win a confidence motion.
Here is Nikki da Costa, who until recently was director of legislative affairs at Downing Street, on the possible significance of John Bercow’s decision not to give people in the Commons advance warning of the decision he will announce about what amendments he will call. (See 11.55am.)
Usually we'd know by now which amdts had been selected. I hear he intends to make announcement from the Chair. Just another moment in the spotlight, or far easier to make a controversial decision? The argument then has to happen on the floor of the House.
Nathalie Loiseau, the French Europe minister, has said it is up to the UK to come up with a Brexit back-up plan, not the EU, the BBC’s Adam Fleming reports.
On further #Brexit concessions French Europe minister @NathalieLoiseau says: “It’s up to the British Parliament and the British government to have a back-up plan in case. It’s not up to us, we have given everything we can give.”
There is much attention focused on which of the dozen or so amendments to the deal will be accepted by the speaker, John Bercow to be voted on from 7pm. However, it seems we’re going to have to wait for the start of today’s debate at about 12.45pm.
News on what amendments have been accepted usually leak out in advance, But today, I’m told Bercow is keeping his plans close to his chest.
Everyone at Westminster is agreed that Theresa May will lose tonight by a wide margin. But there is no consensus as to quite huge her defeat will be, partly because we don’t know yet what amendments will be put to a vote, partly because some MPs change their mind at the last moment, and partly because Tory MPs who have said publicly that they will not support May’s deal can either vote against or abstain - making a big difference to the size of the overall defeat.
But the Guardian, and other news organisations, have been crunching the numbers, and trying to predict what might happen. Here is a summary of the main forecasts available.
The Guardian
Our tally has 426 MPs committed to voting against the deal and 213 committed to voting in favour. That points to a government defeat by 213 votes, but these figures don’t include several dozen unconfirmed MPs who may well back May.
How will your MP vote on Theresa May's Brexit deal?
Sky News
Sky News has May heading for a potential defeat by 200 votes or more. They have counted 423 MPs planning to vote against, and 185 MPs planning to vote in favour - which would point to a defeat by 238 votes - but, again, these figures do not include MPs who have not declared their intention.
The magic number that the prime minister needs to win the crucial Commons vote on 11 December is 318.
ConservativeHome
The ConservativeHome website, a specialist website for Tory members, says 75 Conservative MP will definitely vote against May’s deal, another 26 will probably oppose it, and a further 10 May support it.
The Press Association
The Press Association has 256 MPs planning to vote in favour of the deal, and 383 planning to vote against. Those numbers would deliver a defeat by 127 votes.
A modest projection, maybe, but it's based on MPs who have so far said - on the record - they intend to vote against the deal. pic.twitter.com/TBLAxy34rb
The Telegraph
The Telegraph has counted 114 Tory MPs who will vote against the deal.
BuzzFeed
BuzzFeed also come up with 114 Tory MPs planning to vote against the deal, although their list does not seem to have been updated recently.
Business leaders have given a last minute warning to MPs about the impact of a no-deal Brexit, saying the future of hundreds of thousands of jobs is in their hands, the Press Association reports. Industry groups have been calling for clarity over the UK leaving the EU, making it clear that the years of uncertainty have already affected investment plans.
Mike Hawes, chief executive of the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders, said:
As MPs prepare to vote on the government’s Brexit deal, we urge them to remember they hold the future of the British automotive industry - and the hundreds and thousands of jobs it supports - in their hands.
Brexit is already causing us damage, in output, costs and jobs, but this does not compare with the catastrophic consequences of being cut adrift from our biggest trading partner overnight.
The just-in-time nature of automotive means the impact of ‘no deal’ will be felt, not in months or weeks, but hours.
A managed ‘no deal’ is a fantasy - we would face immediate delivery shortages, disruption, additional costs and uncertainty.
Both government and parliament have a responsibility to take ‘no deal’ off the table or risk destroying this vital UK industry.
And Colin Stanbridge, London Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief executive, said:
It is staggering that we are now weeks away from leaving the EU and businesses still don’t know the terms of that departure and what preparations they require.
We simply should not be at this point this late in the day.
Our most recent survey of over 500 London businesses showed all business confidence and economic indicators falling, some to their lowest recorded levels.
Businesses in the capital are seeing measurable damage from this uncertainty. Parliament must provide clarity on the terms of our exit from the EU.
The German government has denied a report in the Sun that chancellor Angela Merkel offered concessions to Theresa May after Tuesday’s vote. (See 10.40am.) “The German chancellor has given no assurances beyond those that were discussed by the European council in December and what is set out in the letter from [European commission president] Jean-Claude Juncker and [European council president] Donald Tusk,” a government spokesman said.
Here is the Conservative MP Nick Boles, who is now leading parliamentary efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit, on his colleagues from the European Research Group, which represents Tory MPs pushing for a harder Brexit.
Even Robespierre ends up getting consumed by the revolution. Read Hilary Mantel’s Place of Greater Safety and weep, citoyens of the ERG https://t.co/HnDTxfLKgg