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UK consumers shun credit cards as Brexit looms - business live UK consumers shun credit cards as Brexit looms - business live
(35 minutes later)
Germany’s BGA trade body isn’t pulling its punches over Brexit, as we enter the final two months before exit day.
In a statement, BGA declared that the lack of a finalised deal means:
“The German and especially the British economies are heading for a huge disaster.”
German, British economies heading for disaster over Brexit situation - BGA https://t.co/5xw8pAoaJQ pic.twitter.com/75wt9rA03O
I mentioned earlier that a cloud of gloom was covering the eurozone. Now, the latest consumer sentiment report shows that morale has dropped to a two-year low.I mentioned earlier that a cloud of gloom was covering the eurozone. Now, the latest consumer sentiment report shows that morale has dropped to a two-year low.
The EC’s economic sentiment index has dropped to 106.2 points in January, the 7th monthly fall in a row - and the lowest level since November 2016.The EC’s economic sentiment index has dropped to 106.2 points in January, the 7th monthly fall in a row - and the lowest level since November 2016.
Reuters has more details:Reuters has more details:
Sentiment in industry fell to 0.5 points in January from 2.3 in December, in line with market expectations.Sentiment in industry fell to 0.5 points in January from 2.3 in December, in line with market expectations.
The mood of consumers picked up to -7.9 after December’s steep fall to -8.3.The mood of consumers picked up to -7.9 after December’s steep fall to -8.3.
However, retail trade sentiment slipped to -1.9 points in January from -0.1 in December.However, retail trade sentiment slipped to -1.9 points in January from -0.1 in December.
Sentiment in services, a sector which produces two thirds of the euro zone GDP, went down to 11.0 points, almost matching expectations of a 11.1 reading.Sentiment in services, a sector which produces two thirds of the euro zone GDP, went down to 11.0 points, almost matching expectations of a 11.1 reading.
Economist Emanuele Canagrati of BP Prime says eurozone morale is “not good”.Economist Emanuele Canagrati of BP Prime says eurozone morale is “not good”.
bad news for Eurozone economy: the Business Climate indicator plunges to 0.69 in January, worse than expected 0.75 and the lowest level since Nov 2016. Also @EU_Commission Business and Consumer Survey falls to 106.2 the lowest since Sep 2016bad news for Eurozone economy: the Business Climate indicator plunges to 0.69 in January, worse than expected 0.75 and the lowest level since Nov 2016. Also @EU_Commission Business and Consumer Survey falls to 106.2 the lowest since Sep 2016
Finally, Eurozone Services Sentiment falls to 11.0, from previous 12.2, the lowest since Sep 2016. The morale in the eurozone is not good... @graemeweardenFinally, Eurozone Services Sentiment falls to 11.0, from previous 12.2, the lowest since Sep 2016. The morale in the eurozone is not good... @graemewearden
Britain’s high streets are in enough trouble, without consumers snapping their credit cards (metaphorically speaking).Britain’s high streets are in enough trouble, without consumers snapping their credit cards (metaphorically speaking).
New analysis shows that the average town in England and Wales has lost 8% of its shops in the last five years, rising to 20% in Stoke and Blackpool.New analysis shows that the average town in England and Wales has lost 8% of its shops in the last five years, rising to 20% in Stoke and Blackpool.
High street crisis: stark new analysis shows extent of closuresHigh street crisis: stark new analysis shows extent of closures
Josie Dent, economist at the CEBR, says the slowdown in credit growth is due to nervous households struggling with “unsustainable levels of debt”, and unwilling or unable to take on any more.Josie Dent, economist at the CEBR, says the slowdown in credit growth is due to nervous households struggling with “unsustainable levels of debt”, and unwilling or unable to take on any more.
She writes:She writes:
This month Cebr research with YouGov found that UK consumer confidence continued to decline in January, sinking to its lowest level since May 2013. This low level of confidence will be making many hesitant to borrow - as shown by the low rate of growth of credit card debt.This month Cebr research with YouGov found that UK consumer confidence continued to decline in January, sinking to its lowest level since May 2013. This low level of confidence will be making many hesitant to borrow - as shown by the low rate of growth of credit card debt.
To make ends meet many households are instead cutting back expenditure, for which the struggling high street provides evidence, as many consumers have curbed spending on retail goods.To make ends meet many households are instead cutting back expenditure, for which the struggling high street provides evidence, as many consumers have curbed spending on retail goods.
Dent also points to Tuesday’s data, showing a big jump in individuals falling into insolvency in 2018.Dent also points to Tuesday’s data, showing a big jump in individuals falling into insolvency in 2018.
UK personal insolvencies hit seven-year highUK personal insolvencies hit seven-year high
Economist Sam Tombs has spotted that UK consumer credit is now slowing at the fastest rate since the financial crisis:Economist Sam Tombs has spotted that UK consumer credit is now slowing at the fastest rate since the financial crisis:
The net increase in unsecured borrowing likely financed just 0.7% of all purchases, down from 0.9% in Q3 and 1.4% a year earlier. The MPC was complacent last year to suggest that because credit only accounted for <2% of all spending, it posed no risks to the growth outlook. pic.twitter.com/SmYc9qEHWGThe net increase in unsecured borrowing likely financed just 0.7% of all purchases, down from 0.9% in Q3 and 1.4% a year earlier. The MPC was complacent last year to suggest that because credit only accounted for <2% of all spending, it posed no risks to the growth outlook. pic.twitter.com/SmYc9qEHWG
In some ways, the slowdown in UK credit growth is welcome.In some ways, the slowdown in UK credit growth is welcome.
Back in 2017, the Bank of England was worried that consumer credit was booming at 10% growth per year. That could create a borrowing bubble that will burst when the economy stumbles.Back in 2017, the Bank of England was worried that consumer credit was booming at 10% growth per year. That could create a borrowing bubble that will burst when the economy stumbles.
Earlier this month, the TUC warned that Britain’s mountain of unsecured debt has hit a record high of £428bn, or £15,385 per household [however that includes student loans, which arguably should be treated as deferred income tax].Earlier this month, the TUC warned that Britain’s mountain of unsecured debt has hit a record high of £428bn, or £15,385 per household [however that includes student loans, which arguably should be treated as deferred income tax].
However, Britain’s stretched retailers will worry that consumers are cutting back, just as Brexit hits confidence.However, Britain’s stretched retailers will worry that consumers are cutting back, just as Brexit hits confidence.
The slowdown in credit growth can certainly be pinned on Brexit, says economist Howard Archer of the EY Item Club.The slowdown in credit growth can certainly be pinned on Brexit, says economist Howard Archer of the EY Item Club.
He believes borrowers and lenders have both become more cautious about the economic outlook, and Brexit uncertainty.He believes borrowers and lenders have both become more cautious about the economic outlook, and Brexit uncertainty.
Archer writes:Archer writes:
The ongoing slowdown in net unsecured consumer credit growth to a 4-year low in December reinforces belief that heightened uncertainties focused on Brexit are likely to weigh down on the economy in the near term at least. Significantly, the latest Bank of England credit conditions survey showed lenders expect the demand for unsecured consumer credit to fall in the first quarter of 2019 at the fastest rate since records began in 2007.The ongoing slowdown in net unsecured consumer credit growth to a 4-year low in December reinforces belief that heightened uncertainties focused on Brexit are likely to weigh down on the economy in the near term at least. Significantly, the latest Bank of England credit conditions survey showed lenders expect the demand for unsecured consumer credit to fall in the first quarter of 2019 at the fastest rate since records began in 2007.
Heightened concerns over Brexit and the economic outlook, the very low household savings ratio and the prospect of gradual interest rate rises over the coming months are likely to limit consumer willingness to borrow.Heightened concerns over Brexit and the economic outlook, the very low household savings ratio and the prospect of gradual interest rate rises over the coming months are likely to limit consumer willingness to borrow.
Meanwhile, lenders have become more careful about advancing unsecured credit - the fourth quarter of 2018 saw lenders further reduce the amount of unsecured credit available to households and again tighten lending standards.Meanwhile, lenders have become more careful about advancing unsecured credit - the fourth quarter of 2018 saw lenders further reduce the amount of unsecured credit available to households and again tighten lending standards.
Newsflash: Lending to British consumers has slowed to its weakest growth since late 2014, as people cut back on credit cards.Newsflash: Lending to British consumers has slowed to its weakest growth since late 2014, as people cut back on credit cards.
Mortgage approvals have fallen too, in the latest sign that Brexit uncertainty is weighing on the economy.Mortgage approvals have fallen too, in the latest sign that Brexit uncertainty is weighing on the economy.
New Bank of England data shows that annual growth in unsecured consumer lending dropped to 6.6% in December, down from 7.2% in November. That’s the smallest increase since December 2014.New Bank of England data shows that annual growth in unsecured consumer lending dropped to 6.6% in December, down from 7.2% in November. That’s the smallest increase since December 2014.
The BoE says:The BoE says:
Annual consumer credit growth slowed to 6.6% in December, reflecting the continuation of relatively weak flows of new lending. The net monthly flow in December fell to £0.7 billion, reflecting less extra borrowing on credit cards.Annual consumer credit growth slowed to 6.6% in December, reflecting the continuation of relatively weak flows of new lending. The net monthly flow in December fell to £0.7 billion, reflecting less extra borrowing on credit cards.
Instead of hitting their credit cards, many families have been squirrelling away their spare cash. The Bank reports that UK households “significantly increased their deposits in interest-bearing instant access savings accounts in December”.Instead of hitting their credit cards, many families have been squirrelling away their spare cash. The Bank reports that UK households “significantly increased their deposits in interest-bearing instant access savings accounts in December”.
The BoE also reported that 63,793 mortgages were approved in December, down from 63,793 in November. That’s the lowest since April, suggesting the housing market is slowing (although December isn’t a bumper time for house sales, due to Christmas).The BoE also reported that 63,793 mortgages were approved in December, down from 63,793 in November. That’s the lowest since April, suggesting the housing market is slowing (although December isn’t a bumper time for house sales, due to Christmas).
Chris Williamson of data firm Markit argues that the gilet jaunes protests have hurt the French economy, despite today’s solid growth report.Chris Williamson of data firm Markit argues that the gilet jaunes protests have hurt the French economy, despite today’s solid growth report.
He points out that Markit’s Purchasing Managers Index reports show a sharp slowdown in the last couple of months. That may show up in future GDP reports.He points out that Markit’s Purchasing Managers Index reports show a sharp slowdown in the last couple of months. That may show up in future GDP reports.
GDP in #France grew 0.3% in Q4 2018, exactly in line with our #PMI model and closing the gap between the PMI and GDP seen earlier in the year (see https://t.co/MA2nuMJ3b4). However, weak December and January flash PMI numbers point to a big loss of momentum due to protests. pic.twitter.com/mZlfsiJy0ZGDP in #France grew 0.3% in Q4 2018, exactly in line with our #PMI model and closing the gap between the PMI and GDP seen earlier in the year (see https://t.co/MA2nuMJ3b4). However, weak December and January flash PMI numbers point to a big loss of momentum due to protests. pic.twitter.com/mZlfsiJy0Z
Sterling is clawing back some of last night’s losses, as traders try to calculate the likely path of Brexit.Sterling is clawing back some of last night’s losses, as traders try to calculate the likely path of Brexit.
The pound has gained almost half a cent against US dollar to $1.311 this morning, suggesting the City isn’t panicking.The pound has gained almost half a cent against US dollar to $1.311 this morning, suggesting the City isn’t panicking.
However, that’s almost a cent weaker than last night, just before parliament rejected Yvette Cooper MP’s amendment to block a no-deal Brexit.However, that’s almost a cent weaker than last night, just before parliament rejected Yvette Cooper MP’s amendment to block a no-deal Brexit.
Tyler Griffin, currency specialist at OFX, predicts more volatility in the next few weeks, especially as MP will have another vote in two weeks.Tyler Griffin, currency specialist at OFX, predicts more volatility in the next few weeks, especially as MP will have another vote in two weeks.
In the short term there will be major pressure on the pound, especially against the US Dollar. One more slip from Theresa May and we could see the pound hit the deck and fall back below 1.30 against the dollar.”In the short term there will be major pressure on the pound, especially against the US Dollar. One more slip from Theresa May and we could see the pound hit the deck and fall back below 1.30 against the dollar.”
Economist Shaun Richards isn’t too impressed with France’s GDP figures (and fair enough - 0.3% growth is hardly sizzling)Economist Shaun Richards isn’t too impressed with France’s GDP figures (and fair enough - 0.3% growth is hardly sizzling)
GDP in France rose by 0.3% in the 4th quarter which in he circumstances is good news but annual GDP growth fell to 1.5% in 2018 from 2.3% in 2017 showing overall weakness.GDP in France rose by 0.3% in the 4th quarter which in he circumstances is good news but annual GDP growth fell to 1.5% in 2018 from 2.3% in 2017 showing overall weakness.
Continuing with the theme of GDP in France we saw 4th quarter be the same at 0.3% as the downwardly revised Q3 and there is a danger of another downwards revision as we note it was December that was the weak month in the series.Continuing with the theme of GDP in France we saw 4th quarter be the same at 0.3% as the downwardly revised Q3 and there is a danger of another downwards revision as we note it was December that was the weak month in the series.
The Yellow Vest protests forced French president Emmanuel Macron to announce a swathe of spending plans last month, including a higher minimum wage and tax breaks for pensioners and low income workers.The Yellow Vest protests forced French president Emmanuel Macron to announce a swathe of spending plans last month, including a higher minimum wage and tax breaks for pensioners and low income workers.
That package will cost €10bn, but may keep the economy on track in 2019.That package will cost €10bn, but may keep the economy on track in 2019.
Sabrina Khanniche of Pictet Asset Management tweets:Sabrina Khanniche of Pictet Asset Management tweets:
In France 🇫🇷, despite the #giletsjaunes protests Q4 GDP came at a descent0.3%. Net trade saved growth as private consumption – the main engine of growth made a null contribution...but should be temporary. Government measures meant to support household’s purchasing power. pic.twitter.com/F04tQORMzoIn France 🇫🇷, despite the #giletsjaunes protests Q4 GDP came at a descent0.3%. Net trade saved growth as private consumption – the main engine of growth made a null contribution...but should be temporary. Government measures meant to support household’s purchasing power. pic.twitter.com/F04tQORMzo
France’s stock market has risen this morning, as traders welcome today’s GDP figures.France’s stock market has risen this morning, as traders welcome today’s GDP figures.
The CAC 40 index of leading French companies has risen by 0.4%, outperforming Germany (down 0.2%).The CAC 40 index of leading French companies has risen by 0.4%, outperforming Germany (down 0.2%).
In London, the FTSE 100 is pushing higher too thanks to the pound’s decline last night after the Brexit votes.In London, the FTSE 100 is pushing higher too thanks to the pound’s decline last night after the Brexit votes.
Pound falls after Commons vote spurs no-deal Brexit fearsPound falls after Commons vote spurs no-deal Brexit fears
The Footsie has gained 50 points, led by exporters such as British American Tobacco and Burberry, and mining stock including Glencore and Fresnillo. Their overseas earnings become more valuable, in sterling terms, when the pound weakens.The Footsie has gained 50 points, led by exporters such as British American Tobacco and Burberry, and mining stock including Glencore and Fresnillo. Their overseas earnings become more valuable, in sterling terms, when the pound weakens.
Back in the UK, businesses are increasingly nervous about Brexit after parliament voted to change Theresa May’s deal - despite the lack of appetite from Europe to reopen it.Back in the UK, businesses are increasingly nervous about Brexit after parliament voted to change Theresa May’s deal - despite the lack of appetite from Europe to reopen it.
Carolyn Fairbairn, the chief executive of the CBI business group, has expressed deep concern at last night’s Brexit votes, which saw MPs back the ‘Brady Amendment’ to change the Irish backstop.Carolyn Fairbairn, the chief executive of the CBI business group, has expressed deep concern at last night’s Brexit votes, which saw MPs back the ‘Brady Amendment’ to change the Irish backstop.
Talking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning, she said no-deal has not been taken off the table.Talking on BBC Radio 4’s Today programme this morning, she said no-deal has not been taken off the table.
She warned that many businesses, in particular manufacturers, insurers and small firms, were not ready for a hard, “cliff edge” Brexit on 29 March – although banks and other financial services firms certainly are prepared.She warned that many businesses, in particular manufacturers, insurers and small firms, were not ready for a hard, “cliff edge” Brexit on 29 March – although banks and other financial services firms certainly are prepared.
She said:She said:
“The reaction of business today will be one of rising frustration and concern. The main objective that business has is to avoid no deal. Did yesterday do anything to move us further away from no deal? And I think the answer feels as though it is no.”“The reaction of business today will be one of rising frustration and concern. The main objective that business has is to avoid no deal. Did yesterday do anything to move us further away from no deal? And I think the answer feels as though it is no.”
Asked about the non-binding amendment tabled by Labour’s Jack Dromey and the Conservative Caroline Spelman to rule out a no-deal outcome, Fairbairn said:Asked about the non-binding amendment tabled by Labour’s Jack Dromey and the Conservative Caroline Spelman to rule out a no-deal outcome, Fairbairn said:
“It is welcome to see that there is a consensus against no deal… But it is not binding, it does nothing practically to take no deal off the table and it does feel like hope rather than strategy.“It is welcome to see that there is a consensus against no deal… But it is not binding, it does nothing practically to take no deal off the table and it does feel like hope rather than strategy.
“I don’t think there will be a single business this morning who is stopping or halting their no deal planning as a result of what happened yesterday.“I don’t think there will be a single business this morning who is stopping or halting their no deal planning as a result of what happened yesterday.
And I fear they may even be accelerating it, because the other [Brady] amendment feels like a real throw of the dice to be returning to renegotiate something that has been so difficult to negotiate. If the renegotiation goes ahead which it sounds as though it will let’s move very quickly so we know the outcome.”And I fear they may even be accelerating it, because the other [Brady] amendment feels like a real throw of the dice to be returning to renegotiate something that has been so difficult to negotiate. If the renegotiation goes ahead which it sounds as though it will let’s move very quickly so we know the outcome.”
She said some businesses were ready for a hard Brexit/no deal Brexit, but only 10% of small and medium-sized firms had drawn up contingency plans.She said some businesses were ready for a hard Brexit/no deal Brexit, but only 10% of small and medium-sized firms had drawn up contingency plans.
“There are some businesses who are ready. Financial services have been able to prepare a long time in advance and it hasn’t been comfortable and they spent a lot of money on it but they are broadly ready. The real areas of concern now are around manufacturing, other services, broadcasting actually insurance is still not in great shape, they are deeply concerned.“There are some businesses who are ready. Financial services have been able to prepare a long time in advance and it hasn’t been comfortable and they spent a lot of money on it but they are broadly ready. The real areas of concern now are around manufacturing, other services, broadcasting actually insurance is still not in great shape, they are deeply concerned.
“We said before no deal is just not manageable at this stage.”“We said before no deal is just not manageable at this stage.”
Given all the anxiety over trade wars, the 2.4% surge in French exports in the last quarter is a little surprising.Given all the anxiety over trade wars, the 2.4% surge in French exports in the last quarter is a little surprising.
According to INSEE, France’s manufacturers racked up more “aeronautic and naval equipment deliveries” in the last quarter.According to INSEE, France’s manufacturers racked up more “aeronautic and naval equipment deliveries” in the last quarter.
🇫🇷 #France | Exports Contribution to GDP growth reached 0.74% ❗in 4Q18 (highest since 2Q17)*According to INSEE, "exports accelerated significantly because of dynamic aeronautic and naval equipment deliveries". pic.twitter.com/wHBjntjokE🇫🇷 #France | Exports Contribution to GDP growth reached 0.74% ❗in 4Q18 (highest since 2Q17)*According to INSEE, "exports accelerated significantly because of dynamic aeronautic and naval equipment deliveries". pic.twitter.com/wHBjntjokE
Despite the impressive jump in exports, many City experts are concerned about weakness in the French economy.Despite the impressive jump in exports, many City experts are concerned about weakness in the French economy.
Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum Asset Management, points out that French domestic demand has faltered:Philippe Waechter, chief economist at Ostrum Asset Management, points out that French domestic demand has faltered:
The French #GDP increased by 0.3% in the fourth quarter (as in the third quarter). For 2018, the average growth is 1.5% after 2.3% in 2017. In the last quarter of 2018, domestic demand was weaker with a 0.1% contribution to quarterly GDP growth. Consumption stalled and investmentThe French #GDP increased by 0.3% in the fourth quarter (as in the third quarter). For 2018, the average growth is 1.5% after 2.3% in 2017. In the last quarter of 2018, domestic demand was weaker with a 0.1% contribution to quarterly GDP growth. Consumption stalled and investment
Economist Christophe Barraud has spotted that French consumer spending - a key measure of domestic confidence - has dropped sharply.Economist Christophe Barraud has spotted that French consumer spending - a key measure of domestic confidence - has dropped sharply.
🇫🇷 #FRANCE DEC CONSUMER SPENDING M/M: -1.5% V -0.3%E; Y/Y: -2.3% V -0.7%E *Consumption of durable goods fell sharply in December (−3.8%, after +0.1% in November).*Link: https://t.co/qy2TWUaTAp pic.twitter.com/8DnaBDC1Xa🇫🇷 #FRANCE DEC CONSUMER SPENDING M/M: -1.5% V -0.3%E; Y/Y: -2.3% V -0.7%E *Consumption of durable goods fell sharply in December (−3.8%, after +0.1% in November).*Link: https://t.co/qy2TWUaTAp pic.twitter.com/8DnaBDC1Xa
Economics blogger Jeroen Blokland hopes that France’s economy may pick up in 2019Economics blogger Jeroen Blokland hopes that France’s economy may pick up in 2019
#France's #GDP growth for Q4 2018 equaled 0.3%, better than expected! YoY growth, however is down to 0.9% the slowest pace since Q3 2015. Yet part of the soft spot may be behind us. pic.twitter.com/stsKstzjWj#France's #GDP growth for Q4 2018 equaled 0.3%, better than expected! YoY growth, however is down to 0.9% the slowest pace since Q3 2015. Yet part of the soft spot may be behind us. pic.twitter.com/stsKstzjWj
Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.Good morning, and welcome to our rolling coverage of the world economy, the financial markets, the eurozone and business.
With gloom gathering over Europe, France has given the eurozone a much-needed boost by beating growth forecasts for the last quarter.With gloom gathering over Europe, France has given the eurozone a much-needed boost by beating growth forecasts for the last quarter.
French GDP expanded by 0.3% during October-December, new figures show, crushing fears that growth could have fallen to just 0.1%.French GDP expanded by 0.3% during October-December, new figures show, crushing fears that growth could have fallen to just 0.1%.
That matches France’s growth in the third-quarter, easing fears of a downturn.That matches France’s growth in the third-quarter, easing fears of a downturn.
Economists had been braced for bad numbers, following the ‘gilet jaunes’ protests that have gripped Paris for many weeks, with mass demonstrations, running battles with police, roadblocks and attacks on shops and carsEconomists had been braced for bad numbers, following the ‘gilet jaunes’ protests that have gripped Paris for many weeks, with mass demonstrations, running battles with police, roadblocks and attacks on shops and cars
And indeed, consumer spending and investing did drop in the last quarter.And indeed, consumer spending and investing did drop in the last quarter.
But France’s economy still pushed on, the INSEE stats office reports, thanks to a jump in exports.But France’s economy still pushed on, the INSEE stats office reports, thanks to a jump in exports.
INSEE reports:INSEE reports:
Household consumption expenditures decelerated (0.0% after +0.4%), likewise total gross fixed capital formation slowed down (GFCF: +0.2% after +1.0%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes decelerated: it contributed 0.1 points to GDP growth, after 0.5 points in the previous quarter.Household consumption expenditures decelerated (0.0% after +0.4%), likewise total gross fixed capital formation slowed down (GFCF: +0.2% after +1.0%). Overall, final domestic demand excluding inventory changes decelerated: it contributed 0.1 points to GDP growth, after 0.5 points in the previous quarter.
Imports bounced back in Q4 (+1.6% after −0.7%) and exports accelerated significantly (+2.4% after +0.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth again: +0.2 points, after +0.3 points in Q3. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.1 points after −0.5 points).Imports bounced back in Q4 (+1.6% after −0.7%) and exports accelerated significantly (+2.4% after +0.2%). All in all, foreign trade balance contributed positively to GDP growth again: +0.2 points, after +0.3 points in Q3. Conversely, changes in inventories contributed negatively to GDP growth (−0.1 points after −0.5 points).
The figures aren’t exactly superbe -- France’s annual growth rate has dropped to 1.5% for 2018, from 2.3% in 2017. That highlight how the ‘euroboom’ has fizzled out.The figures aren’t exactly superbe -- France’s annual growth rate has dropped to 1.5% for 2018, from 2.3% in 2017. That highlight how the ‘euroboom’ has fizzled out.
Reaction to follow....Reaction to follow....
Also coming up todayAlso coming up today
US and China are due to resume their trade talks today; overshadowed by the criminal charges against Huawei.US and China are due to resume their trade talks today; overshadowed by the criminal charges against Huawei.
The pound could be volatile today after MPs voted for Theresa May to return to Brussels to renegotiate the Irish backstop in her Brexit deal - something the EU has already said non, nein, and nee to.The pound could be volatile today after MPs voted for Theresa May to return to Brussels to renegotiate the Irish backstop in her Brexit deal - something the EU has already said non, nein, and nee to.
Top notch front page by the Independent pic.twitter.com/efJunXyo7aTop notch front page by the Independent pic.twitter.com/efJunXyo7a
Sterling took a small tumble last night, losing one cent against the US dollar as traders calculated that a no-deal Brexit is now more likely.Sterling took a small tumble last night, losing one cent against the US dollar as traders calculated that a no-deal Brexit is now more likely.
Brexit: May goes back to Brussels but EU says nothing has changedBrexit: May goes back to Brussels but EU says nothing has changed
That’s likely to push shares in London up this morning (as a weak pound boosts overseas earnings).That’s likely to push shares in London up this morning (as a weak pound boosts overseas earnings).
America’s central bank is meeting to set monetary policy tonight. The Fed is likely to leave interest rates on hold, but it could highlight how the US government shutdown has hurt the economy.America’s central bank is meeting to set monetary policy tonight. The Fed is likely to leave interest rates on hold, but it could highlight how the US government shutdown has hurt the economy.
Plus we get new UK borrowing data which may show a drop in mortgage approvals last month.Plus we get new UK borrowing data which may show a drop in mortgage approvals last month.
The agendaThe agenda
9.30am GMT: UK consumer credit and mortgage approvals data9.30am GMT: UK consumer credit and mortgage approvals data
10am GMT: Eurozone consumer confidence10am GMT: Eurozone consumer confidence
7pm GMT: US Federal Reserve sets interest rates7pm GMT: US Federal Reserve sets interest rates