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| May quitting will not get Brexit deal through, say Eurosceptics | May quitting will not get Brexit deal through, say Eurosceptics |
| (2 days later) | |
| Eurosceptics have told Theresa May that defeat on her Brexit deal looks certain without more concessions from Brussels, even if she offers to quit in exchange for them voting to get it over the line. | Eurosceptics have told Theresa May that defeat on her Brexit deal looks certain without more concessions from Brussels, even if she offers to quit in exchange for them voting to get it over the line. |
| The prime minister’s position is looking increasingly precarious, as cabinet ministers have floated the idea of forcing her to name a date for her departure if this could persuade hardline Eurosceptics to back her deal. | The prime minister’s position is looking increasingly precarious, as cabinet ministers have floated the idea of forcing her to name a date for her departure if this could persuade hardline Eurosceptics to back her deal. |
| Some leave supporters may be tempted to go for this option to allow a Brexiter such as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove or Dominic Raab to take over and have a go at negotiating the second phase – or the future relationship with the EU. | Some leave supporters may be tempted to go for this option to allow a Brexiter such as Boris Johnson, Michael Gove or Dominic Raab to take over and have a go at negotiating the second phase – or the future relationship with the EU. |
| However, the idea of voting for May’s deal in return for her exit was outright rejected by other Brexit supporters, with David Davis, a former Brexit secretary, saying it “will not get the vote through”. | However, the idea of voting for May’s deal in return for her exit was outright rejected by other Brexit supporters, with David Davis, a former Brexit secretary, saying it “will not get the vote through”. |
| “You can change the leader but you can’t change the numbers,” Davis told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show. “We have got to focus on the issue here … Nothing else will work.” | “You can change the leader but you can’t change the numbers,” Davis told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show. “We have got to focus on the issue here … Nothing else will work.” |
| Some of the most hardline leave backers are implacably opposed to the deal unless the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, secures a legally binding way out of the Irish backstop, which as it stands could keep the UK in a permanent customs union with the EU. | Some of the most hardline leave backers are implacably opposed to the deal unless the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, secures a legally binding way out of the Irish backstop, which as it stands could keep the UK in a permanent customs union with the EU. |
| Writing for the Sunday Telegraph, Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, and Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party, described defeat for the deal as “inevitable” and predicted a “three-figure majority” against the deal – a similar position to last time. | Writing for the Sunday Telegraph, Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, and Nigel Dodds, the leader of the Democratic Unionist party, described defeat for the deal as “inevitable” and predicted a “three-figure majority” against the deal – a similar position to last time. |
| “An unchanged withdrawal agreement will be defeated firmly by a sizeable proportion of Conservatives and the DUP if it is again presented to the Commons,” they wrote. “If with the DUP just half of previous Conservative opponents vote against the deal, a three-figure majority would be expected.” | “An unchanged withdrawal agreement will be defeated firmly by a sizeable proportion of Conservatives and the DUP if it is again presented to the Commons,” they wrote. “If with the DUP just half of previous Conservative opponents vote against the deal, a three-figure majority would be expected.” |
| Brexit supporters were this weekend gearing up to blame Brussels for failing to offer enough concessions to get the deal over the line. | Brexit supporters were this weekend gearing up to blame Brussels for failing to offer enough concessions to get the deal over the line. |
| Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and cabinet minister, wrote in the Mail on Sunday: “If reports are to be believed, the EU has acted in bad faith and rejected [Cox’s] proposals for a simple but legally binding guarantee that the backstop, the agreement which prevents a hard border in Ireland, would not lock Britain in for ever. | Iain Duncan Smith, the former Tory leader and cabinet minister, wrote in the Mail on Sunday: “If reports are to be believed, the EU has acted in bad faith and rejected [Cox’s] proposals for a simple but legally binding guarantee that the backstop, the agreement which prevents a hard border in Ireland, would not lock Britain in for ever. |
| “And it is clear that unless there is such a guarantee, the backstop – which puts us in ‘temporary’ alignment with EU trade rules – is indeed a trap from which the UK might never escape.” | “And it is clear that unless there is such a guarantee, the backstop – which puts us in ‘temporary’ alignment with EU trade rules – is indeed a trap from which the UK might never escape.” |
| Raab, a former Brexit secretary and leading contender for the leadership, told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “We’ve seen total intransigence from the EU.” | Raab, a former Brexit secretary and leading contender for the leadership, told Sky’s Sophy Ridge on Sunday: “We’ve seen total intransigence from the EU.” |
| The environment secretary’s campaign plan was knocked off course by revelations about drug-taking. | The environment secretary’s campaign plan was knocked off course by revelations about drug-taking. |
| He has sought to regain his place as the leading ‘Stop Boris’ with a series of policy pledges, from a new social insurance to pay for social care, to changing human rights law to prevent service personnel being pursued over historical crimes. He has better Brexiter credentials than Hunt, is liked by the moderate wing of the party, and is a better orator than almost any other candidate. | He has sought to regain his place as the leading ‘Stop Boris’ with a series of policy pledges, from a new social insurance to pay for social care, to changing human rights law to prevent service personnel being pursued over historical crimes. He has better Brexiter credentials than Hunt, is liked by the moderate wing of the party, and is a better orator than almost any other candidate. |
| He has played up his senior role in the Vote Leave campaign, saying he had ‘led from the front’ because he believed it was ‘the right thing to do, at a critical moment in our history’. | He has played up his senior role in the Vote Leave campaign, saying he had ‘led from the front’ because he believed it was ‘the right thing to do, at a critical moment in our history’. |
| On Brexit he has publicly discussed the idea of extending the Brexit deadline slightly beyond 31 October, if needed to finalise a deal. Has not completely ruled out a no-deal Brexit. | On Brexit he has publicly discussed the idea of extending the Brexit deadline slightly beyond 31 October, if needed to finalise a deal. Has not completely ruled out a no-deal Brexit. |
| He received 37 votes in the first round, coming third. He came third in the second round, increasing his number of supporters to 41. | |
| The foreign secretary has made the case that he is the most serious and experienced would-be leader, in an apparent rebuke to his main rival, Boris Johnson. | The foreign secretary has made the case that he is the most serious and experienced would-be leader, in an apparent rebuke to his main rival, Boris Johnson. |
| On Brexit he believes a new deal is possible by 31 October, and would send a new, cross-party negotiating team to Brussels. Would countenance leaving EU without a deal, but has warned that could lead to a confidence vote and potentially an election. | On Brexit he believes a new deal is possible by 31 October, and would send a new, cross-party negotiating team to Brussels. Would countenance leaving EU without a deal, but has warned that could lead to a confidence vote and potentially an election. |
| Hunt’s problem is he is seen as the continuity candidate, the safe pair of hands, when colleagues are starting to see the attraction of a new style. | Hunt’s problem is he is seen as the continuity candidate, the safe pair of hands, when colleagues are starting to see the attraction of a new style. |
| He received 43 votes in the first round, placing him second. He received 46 votes in the second round, staying in second place. | |
| Javid struggled to define himself in the first days of the campaign, not a fresh face, not a safe pair of hands, or a true Brexit believer. But his campaign picked up, with the endorsement of popular Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, a polished leadership video telling the moving story of his background, and a lively launch speech. It was still only enough to place him fifth, though. | Javid struggled to define himself in the first days of the campaign, not a fresh face, not a safe pair of hands, or a true Brexit believer. But his campaign picked up, with the endorsement of popular Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, a polished leadership video telling the moving story of his background, and a lively launch speech. It was still only enough to place him fifth, though. |
| On Brexit, Javid says he wants to leave with a deal, but has talked down the idea of another extension and would be prepared to opt for no deal. | On Brexit, Javid says he wants to leave with a deal, but has talked down the idea of another extension and would be prepared to opt for no deal. |
| He is expected to make a new push to define himself as the change candidate who can talk to Tory voters in new places – though he may also be tempted to drop out to tuck in behind one of the frontrunners. It is hard to see how he could make it into the final two from this position. | He is expected to make a new push to define himself as the change candidate who can talk to Tory voters in new places – though he may also be tempted to drop out to tuck in behind one of the frontrunners. It is hard to see how he could make it into the final two from this position. |
| He received 23 votes in the first round, and 33 votes in the second round. | |
| The former foreign secretary already has enough support to progress through to the members’ ballot. All Johnson needs to do is sit tight, keep his MPs sweet and try not to ruin it for himself. He has kept a low profile in the media and stayed in the tearooms and in his office, methodically talking round colleagues. His team know that one negative news cycle because of an off-guard comment could see his star plummet – and Johnson is more prone to those than most. | The former foreign secretary already has enough support to progress through to the members’ ballot. All Johnson needs to do is sit tight, keep his MPs sweet and try not to ruin it for himself. He has kept a low profile in the media and stayed in the tearooms and in his office, methodically talking round colleagues. His team know that one negative news cycle because of an off-guard comment could see his star plummet – and Johnson is more prone to those than most. |
| On Brexit he has promised the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, come what may, even without a deal if a new agreement cannot be reached in time. | On Brexit he has promised the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, come what may, even without a deal if a new agreement cannot be reached in time. |
| Johnson won the first round with 114 votes, and the second round with 126 votes. | |
| Stewart said he was ‘over the moon’ to scrape into the next round of voting with 19 votes, one-sixth of Johnson’s tally, and insisted afterwards he could still make the final two. He still has a mountain to climb to get into the next round, where he will need to get another 14 endorsements – and avoid coming last – or he will be automatically eliminated. | Stewart said he was ‘over the moon’ to scrape into the next round of voting with 19 votes, one-sixth of Johnson’s tally, and insisted afterwards he could still make the final two. He still has a mountain to climb to get into the next round, where he will need to get another 14 endorsements – and avoid coming last – or he will be automatically eliminated. |
| The safe money would say it is likely that he will not make it through the next round, yet it is just about possible that his mounting popularity with the public could convince colleagues to take a gamble on him if they hope to find an outsider with a chance of beating Johnson. | The safe money would say it is likely that he will not make it through the next round, yet it is just about possible that his mounting popularity with the public could convince colleagues to take a gamble on him if they hope to find an outsider with a chance of beating Johnson. |
| On Brexit he is by far the softest of the candidates – he so vehemently rules out no deal that he has discussed holding an impromptu parliament elsewhere in Westminster if a new PM opted to prorogue the Commons. | On Brexit he is by far the softest of the candidates – he so vehemently rules out no deal that he has discussed holding an impromptu parliament elsewhere in Westminster if a new PM opted to prorogue the Commons. |
| Stewart got 19 votes in the first round, and 37 votes in the second round. | |
| However, supporters of May have not entirely given up on getting the deal through parliament. Cabinet ministers planning to back the prime minister’s agreement hit the airwaves on Sunday to warn colleagues of the consequences of refusing to back her on Tuesday. | However, supporters of May have not entirely given up on getting the deal through parliament. Cabinet ministers planning to back the prime minister’s agreement hit the airwaves on Sunday to warn colleagues of the consequences of refusing to back her on Tuesday. |
| Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, said the consequences of Conservative MPs voting down the deal would be electorally “devastating” for the party, which would be blamed for failing to deliver Brexit. He called for “realism” among Eurosceptics, wsaying failure to back the deal would lead to an extension, and then possibly a second referendum. | Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, said the consequences of Conservative MPs voting down the deal would be electorally “devastating” for the party, which would be blamed for failing to deliver Brexit. He called for “realism” among Eurosceptics, wsaying failure to back the deal would lead to an extension, and then possibly a second referendum. |
| Adding to the pressure on MPs, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is expected in his spring statement on Wednesday to offer Conservative MPs a £20bn pot of money to “end austerity” if the prime minister’s deal passes. | Adding to the pressure on MPs, Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is expected in his spring statement on Wednesday to offer Conservative MPs a £20bn pot of money to “end austerity” if the prime minister’s deal passes. |
| Brexit secretary met Labour MPs championing second referendum plan | Brexit secretary met Labour MPs championing second referendum plan |
| If May’s deal fails to pass, she has committed to holding votes in parliament on whether to rule out a no-deal Brexit and whether to extend article 50, both of which MPs are likely to support. | If May’s deal fails to pass, she has committed to holding votes in parliament on whether to rule out a no-deal Brexit and whether to extend article 50, both of which MPs are likely to support. |
| Campaigners for a second referendum then hope that they could gain momentum while the UK remains in limbo and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit becomes more real. | Campaigners for a second referendum then hope that they could gain momentum while the UK remains in limbo and the prospect of a no-deal Brexit becomes more real. |
| However, May’s team would push for more talks with Brussels and try to hold a third meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. She could be forced to try to strike an agreement with the opposition on a customs union with the EU, a move that would infuriate the Eurosceptics and worsen Conservative divisions. | However, May’s team would push for more talks with Brussels and try to hold a third meaningful vote on her Brexit deal. She could be forced to try to strike an agreement with the opposition on a customs union with the EU, a move that would infuriate the Eurosceptics and worsen Conservative divisions. |
| Downing Street insiders are privately concerned that May will not be able to hold on to power for long enough to get to the point of a third meaningful vote, as she could be forced by colleagues to resign and allow a replacement leader to conduct a “Brexit reset”. | Downing Street insiders are privately concerned that May will not be able to hold on to power for long enough to get to the point of a third meaningful vote, as she could be forced by colleagues to resign and allow a replacement leader to conduct a “Brexit reset”. |
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