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| Theresa May battles to save Brexit deal amid threats to oust her | Theresa May battles to save Brexit deal amid threats to oust her |
| (3 days later) | |
| Theresa May was battling on Sunday night to save her Brexit deal and prolong her premiership, amid signs Eurosceptics could move against her if there is a delay to leaving the EU. | Theresa May was battling on Sunday night to save her Brexit deal and prolong her premiership, amid signs Eurosceptics could move against her if there is a delay to leaving the EU. |
| The prime minister’s position looked precarious as she was unable to announce any progress in talks with the EU less than 48 hours before her House of Commons vote on the deal. | The prime minister’s position looked precarious as she was unable to announce any progress in talks with the EU less than 48 hours before her House of Commons vote on the deal. |
| One Downing Street insider said the week ahead looked “choppy” as parliament is likely to vote to extend article 50 and rule out a no-deal Brexit if MPs do not approve May’s withdrawal agreement with the EU. | One Downing Street insider said the week ahead looked “choppy” as parliament is likely to vote to extend article 50 and rule out a no-deal Brexit if MPs do not approve May’s withdrawal agreement with the EU. |
| Two former cabinet ministers – Nicky Morgan and Dominic Raab – suggested that her premiership would be in trouble in that scenario, with speculation that Eurosceptics will try to force her out. | Two former cabinet ministers – Nicky Morgan and Dominic Raab – suggested that her premiership would be in trouble in that scenario, with speculation that Eurosceptics will try to force her out. |
| To avoid that threat, May will need votes in the week ahead from about 100 Tory and Democratic Unionist party Eurosceptics, who want an assurance that the UK will not indefinitely be bound by the Irish backstop and a permanent customs union with the EU. | To avoid that threat, May will need votes in the week ahead from about 100 Tory and Democratic Unionist party Eurosceptics, who want an assurance that the UK will not indefinitely be bound by the Irish backstop and a permanent customs union with the EU. |
| ‘Next negotiation will be for Bake Off’: Tory MPs suggest PM’s days are numbered | ‘Next negotiation will be for Bake Off’: Tory MPs suggest PM’s days are numbered |
| In a last-ditch effort to win over the rebels, ministers were discussing whether the prime minister could even offer to name a departure date if it would help the deal to pass, while Philip Hammond, the chancellor, was preparing to offer billions to “end austerity” in the spring statement. | In a last-ditch effort to win over the rebels, ministers were discussing whether the prime minister could even offer to name a departure date if it would help the deal to pass, while Philip Hammond, the chancellor, was preparing to offer billions to “end austerity” in the spring statement. |
| Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, also warned Eurosceptics that failing to back May’s deal meant there was “a risk and a possibility that we end up losing Brexit in the next couple of weeks”. | Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, also warned Eurosceptics that failing to back May’s deal meant there was “a risk and a possibility that we end up losing Brexit in the next couple of weeks”. |
| But hardline pro-Brexit supporters were holding their nerve and insisting they would still only consider backing a deal if Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, has changed his mind about the permanent nature of the backstop. | But hardline pro-Brexit supporters were holding their nerve and insisting they would still only consider backing a deal if Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, has changed his mind about the permanent nature of the backstop. |
| Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, said: “I am clear a change of prime minister would not create an escape from the backstop unless the new prime minister were willing and able to breach international law. And that is absolutely not who we are as a fair-dealing UK.” | Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, said: “I am clear a change of prime minister would not create an escape from the backstop unless the new prime minister were willing and able to breach international law. And that is absolutely not who we are as a fair-dealing UK.” |
| To those warning of a threat to Brexit, he said: “The people who would stop Brexit should know just this: what you do, you’ll have to do in public now. Stopping Brexit will be on you, not Brexiteers. Don’t kid yourselves otherwise.” | To those warning of a threat to Brexit, he said: “The people who would stop Brexit should know just this: what you do, you’ll have to do in public now. Stopping Brexit will be on you, not Brexiteers. Don’t kid yourselves otherwise.” |
| David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, also said an offer by May to resign “would not be enough” and warned that a delay to leaving the EU could cause a backlash amounting to a “Trump moment” among the public. | David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, also said an offer by May to resign “would not be enough” and warned that a delay to leaving the EU could cause a backlash amounting to a “Trump moment” among the public. |
| Many Eurosceptics will oppose a delay not just over fears it could lead to a second referendum but also the likelihood that the EU would increase the UK’s exit bill by billions of pounds. | Many Eurosceptics will oppose a delay not just over fears it could lead to a second referendum but also the likelihood that the EU would increase the UK’s exit bill by billions of pounds. |
| May was also facing difficulty securing enough Labour votes to get the deal through, despite attempting to woo them with a package of guarantees on workers’ rights and cash for towns across the UK. | May was also facing difficulty securing enough Labour votes to get the deal through, despite attempting to woo them with a package of guarantees on workers’ rights and cash for towns across the UK. |
| If May fears she is heading for a heavy defeat she may pull the vote on her deal and instead hold an indicative vote to show the EU what parliament would accept before attempting another negotiation, but there is no certainty that Brussels would be open to more talks without a change in direction towards a softer Brexit. | If May fears she is heading for a heavy defeat she may pull the vote on her deal and instead hold an indicative vote to show the EU what parliament would accept before attempting another negotiation, but there is no certainty that Brussels would be open to more talks without a change in direction towards a softer Brexit. |
| In an article for the Guardian, Sam Gyimah, a Conservative who resigned as a minister to back a people’s vote, warned his colleagues across the parties against voting for the deal under government pressure, suggesting bad policy decisions such as the Iraq war were made under similar circumstances. | In an article for the Guardian, Sam Gyimah, a Conservative who resigned as a minister to back a people’s vote, warned his colleagues across the parties against voting for the deal under government pressure, suggesting bad policy decisions such as the Iraq war were made under similar circumstances. |
| “The framing of the choice is similar to the one MPs were presented with in the run-up to the Iraq war: military action against Saddam Hussein, or the risk of an attack on this country,” he said. | “The framing of the choice is similar to the one MPs were presented with in the run-up to the Iraq war: military action against Saddam Hussein, or the risk of an attack on this country,” he said. |
| This is like Iraq all over again – we must extend article 50 | Sam Gyimah | This is like Iraq all over again – we must extend article 50 | Sam Gyimah |
| “The prime minister’s version is a similarly artificial choice: her deal, or a chaotic and disorderly exit from the EU that we know will have severe consequences for our communities. MPs are effectively being asked to choose between the frying pan and the fire, in the hope they will choose the former and that will somehow be declared as a victory.” | “The prime minister’s version is a similarly artificial choice: her deal, or a chaotic and disorderly exit from the EU that we know will have severe consequences for our communities. MPs are effectively being asked to choose between the frying pan and the fire, in the hope they will choose the former and that will somehow be declared as a victory.” |
| The prime minister was poised to fly to Brussels in the early hours of Monday if there were signs of a breakthrough but she was still undecided late on Sunday night about whether to make a last-minute dash. She was also wavering over whether to make a statement on the issue in the Commons on Monday. | The prime minister was poised to fly to Brussels in the early hours of Monday if there were signs of a breakthrough but she was still undecided late on Sunday night about whether to make a last-minute dash. She was also wavering over whether to make a statement on the issue in the Commons on Monday. |
| If May fails to pass her deal, Labour said it was open to working with other parties to secure a better Brexit deal involving a customs union. But the prospect of parliament seizing control of the negotiations has heightened the chance of Tory Eurosceptics attempting to replace May. | If May fails to pass her deal, Labour said it was open to working with other parties to secure a better Brexit deal involving a customs union. But the prospect of parliament seizing control of the negotiations has heightened the chance of Tory Eurosceptics attempting to replace May. |
| The environment secretary’s campaign plan was knocked off course by revelations about drug-taking. | |
| He has sought to regain his place as the leading ‘Stop Boris’ with a series of policy pledges, from a new social insurance to pay for social care, to changing human rights law to prevent service personnel being pursued over historical crimes. He has better Brexiter credentials than Hunt, is liked by the moderate wing of the party, and is a better orator than almost any other candidate. | |
| He has played up his senior role in the Vote Leave campaign, saying he had ‘led from the front’ because he believed it was ‘the right thing to do, at a critical moment in our history’. | |
| On Brexit he has publicly discussed the idea of extending the Brexit deadline slightly beyond 31 October, if needed to finalise a deal. Has not completely ruled out a no-deal Brexit. | |
| He received 37 votes in the first round, coming third. | He received 37 votes in the first round, coming third. |
| The foreign secretary has made the case that he is the most serious and experienced would-be leader, in an apparent rebuke to his main rival, Boris Johnson. | |
| On Brexit he believes a new deal is possible by 31 October, and would send a new, cross-party negotiating team to Brussels. Would countenance leaving EU without a deal, but has warned that could lead to a confidence vote and potentially an election. | |
| Hunt’s problem is he is seen as the continuity candidate, the safe pair of hands, when colleagues are starting to see the attraction of a new style. | |
| He received 43 votes in the first round, placing him second. | He received 43 votes in the first round, placing him second. |
| Javid struggled to define himself in the first days of the campaign, not a fresh face, not a safe pair of hands, or a true Brexit believer. But his campaign picked up, with the endorsement of popular Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, a polished leadership video telling the moving story of his background, and a lively launch speech. It was still only enough to place him fifth, though. | |
| On Brexit, Javid says he wants to leave with a deal, but has talked down the idea of another extension and would be prepared to opt for no deal. | |
| He is expected to make a new push to define himself as the change candidate who can talk to Tory voters in new places – though he may also be tempted to drop out to tuck in behind one of the frontrunners. It is hard to see how he could make it into the final two from this position. | |
| He received 23 votes in the first round. | He received 23 votes in the first round. |
| The former foreign secretary already has enough support to progress through to the members’ ballot. All Johnson needs to do is sit tight, keep his MPs sweet and try not to ruin it for himself. He has kept a low profile in the media and stayed in the tearooms and in his office, methodically talking round colleagues. His team know that one negative news cycle because of an off-guard comment could see his star plummet – and Johnson is more prone to those than most. | |
| On Brexit he has promised the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, come what may, even without a deal if a new agreement cannot be reached in time. | |
| Johnson won the first round with 114 votes. | Johnson won the first round with 114 votes. |
| The former Brexit secretary has had a rocky start to his campaign after telling broadcasters he was not a feminist and missing out on a slew of endorsements from the Brexiter right of the party, which instead went to Boris Johnson | |
| On Brexit Raab has said he would actively seek a no-deal departure, and has repeatedly refused to rule out proroguing parliament to make sure MPs could not block this. ‘We’ve been humiliated as a country in these talks with the EU,’ he said. ‘We’re divided at home, and demeaned abroad.’ | |
| His limited chance of success really now depends on whether Johnson stumbles and a more moderate candidate gains momentum, in which case Raab could be the beneficiary. | |
| Raab got 27 votes in the first round. | Raab got 27 votes in the first round. |
| Stewart said he was ‘over the moon’ to scrape into the next round of voting with 19 votes, one-sixth of Johnson’s tally, and insisted afterwards he could still make the final two. He still has a mountain to climb to get into the next round, where he will need to get another 14 endorsements – and avoid coming last – or he will be automatically eliminated. | |
| The safe money would say it is likely that he will not make it through the next round, yet it is just about possible that his mounting popularity with the public could convince colleagues to take a gamble on him if they hope to find an outsider with a chance of beating Johnson. | |
| On Brexit he is by far the softest of the candidates – he so vehemently rules out no deal that he has discussed holding an impromptu parliament elsewhere in Westminster if a new PM opted to prorogue the Commons. | |
| Stewart got 19 votes in the first round. | Stewart got 19 votes in the first round. |
| Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary who is tipped to run for leader and already has a grassroots supporters group called Ready for Raab, told Sky News: “She has said she is going to step down. I would like to see her able to do that in a way of her own choosing. But the government has found itself in a precarious situation and, particularly if the government extends article 50 or tries to reverse the Brexit promises that we have made, I think that situation will get even trickier.” | Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary who is tipped to run for leader and already has a grassroots supporters group called Ready for Raab, told Sky News: “She has said she is going to step down. I would like to see her able to do that in a way of her own choosing. But the government has found itself in a precarious situation and, particularly if the government extends article 50 or tries to reverse the Brexit promises that we have made, I think that situation will get even trickier.” |
| Morgan, the former education secretary, also told the BBC’s The World This Weekend that it would be the “beginning of the end” for May’s policy if the Commons again votes down her deal and then votes against a no-deal Brexit and for an extension of article 50. | Morgan, the former education secretary, also told the BBC’s The World This Weekend that it would be the “beginning of the end” for May’s policy if the Commons again votes down her deal and then votes against a no-deal Brexit and for an extension of article 50. |
| “I think that her position is going to become slowly less and less tenable as parliament changes the government’s Brexit policy,” she said. “If the votes go this week in a way which means that the prime minister’s policy as she has set out and stuck to rigidly over the course of the last two-and-a-bit years is taken away, dismantled slowly by parliament this week, I think it would be very difficult for the prime minister to stay in office for very much longer.” | “I think that her position is going to become slowly less and less tenable as parliament changes the government’s Brexit policy,” she said. “If the votes go this week in a way which means that the prime minister’s policy as she has set out and stuck to rigidly over the course of the last two-and-a-bit years is taken away, dismantled slowly by parliament this week, I think it would be very difficult for the prime minister to stay in office for very much longer.” |
| She suggested the cabinet would have to “take a role in saying potentially to the prime minister, ‘Actually, things have changed significantly. We think you should think about your position, prime minister.’” | She suggested the cabinet would have to “take a role in saying potentially to the prime minister, ‘Actually, things have changed significantly. We think you should think about your position, prime minister.’” |
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