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| Theresa May battles to save Brexit deal amid threats to oust her | Theresa May battles to save Brexit deal amid threats to oust her |
| (4 days later) | |
| Theresa May was battling on Sunday night to save her Brexit deal and prolong her premiership, amid signs Eurosceptics could move against her if there is a delay to leaving the EU. | Theresa May was battling on Sunday night to save her Brexit deal and prolong her premiership, amid signs Eurosceptics could move against her if there is a delay to leaving the EU. |
| The prime minister’s position looked precarious as she was unable to announce any progress in talks with the EU less than 48 hours before her House of Commons vote on the deal. | The prime minister’s position looked precarious as she was unable to announce any progress in talks with the EU less than 48 hours before her House of Commons vote on the deal. |
| One Downing Street insider said the week ahead looked “choppy” as parliament is likely to vote to extend article 50 and rule out a no-deal Brexit if MPs do not approve May’s withdrawal agreement with the EU. | One Downing Street insider said the week ahead looked “choppy” as parliament is likely to vote to extend article 50 and rule out a no-deal Brexit if MPs do not approve May’s withdrawal agreement with the EU. |
| Two former cabinet ministers – Nicky Morgan and Dominic Raab – suggested that her premiership would be in trouble in that scenario, with speculation that Eurosceptics will try to force her out. | Two former cabinet ministers – Nicky Morgan and Dominic Raab – suggested that her premiership would be in trouble in that scenario, with speculation that Eurosceptics will try to force her out. |
| To avoid that threat, May will need votes in the week ahead from about 100 Tory and Democratic Unionist party Eurosceptics, who want an assurance that the UK will not indefinitely be bound by the Irish backstop and a permanent customs union with the EU. | To avoid that threat, May will need votes in the week ahead from about 100 Tory and Democratic Unionist party Eurosceptics, who want an assurance that the UK will not indefinitely be bound by the Irish backstop and a permanent customs union with the EU. |
| ‘Next negotiation will be for Bake Off’: Tory MPs suggest PM’s days are numbered | ‘Next negotiation will be for Bake Off’: Tory MPs suggest PM’s days are numbered |
| In a last-ditch effort to win over the rebels, ministers were discussing whether the prime minister could even offer to name a departure date if it would help the deal to pass, while Philip Hammond, the chancellor, was preparing to offer billions to “end austerity” in the spring statement. | In a last-ditch effort to win over the rebels, ministers were discussing whether the prime minister could even offer to name a departure date if it would help the deal to pass, while Philip Hammond, the chancellor, was preparing to offer billions to “end austerity” in the spring statement. |
| Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, also warned Eurosceptics that failing to back May’s deal meant there was “a risk and a possibility that we end up losing Brexit in the next couple of weeks”. | Jeremy Hunt, the foreign secretary, also warned Eurosceptics that failing to back May’s deal meant there was “a risk and a possibility that we end up losing Brexit in the next couple of weeks”. |
| But hardline pro-Brexit supporters were holding their nerve and insisting they would still only consider backing a deal if Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, has changed his mind about the permanent nature of the backstop. | But hardline pro-Brexit supporters were holding their nerve and insisting they would still only consider backing a deal if Geoffrey Cox, the attorney general, has changed his mind about the permanent nature of the backstop. |
| Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, said: “I am clear a change of prime minister would not create an escape from the backstop unless the new prime minister were willing and able to breach international law. And that is absolutely not who we are as a fair-dealing UK.” | Steve Baker, a leading figure in the European Research Group, said: “I am clear a change of prime minister would not create an escape from the backstop unless the new prime minister were willing and able to breach international law. And that is absolutely not who we are as a fair-dealing UK.” |
| To those warning of a threat to Brexit, he said: “The people who would stop Brexit should know just this: what you do, you’ll have to do in public now. Stopping Brexit will be on you, not Brexiteers. Don’t kid yourselves otherwise.” | To those warning of a threat to Brexit, he said: “The people who would stop Brexit should know just this: what you do, you’ll have to do in public now. Stopping Brexit will be on you, not Brexiteers. Don’t kid yourselves otherwise.” |
| David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, also said an offer by May to resign “would not be enough” and warned that a delay to leaving the EU could cause a backlash amounting to a “Trump moment” among the public. | David Davis, the former Brexit secretary, also said an offer by May to resign “would not be enough” and warned that a delay to leaving the EU could cause a backlash amounting to a “Trump moment” among the public. |
| Many Eurosceptics will oppose a delay not just over fears it could lead to a second referendum but also the likelihood that the EU would increase the UK’s exit bill by billions of pounds. | Many Eurosceptics will oppose a delay not just over fears it could lead to a second referendum but also the likelihood that the EU would increase the UK’s exit bill by billions of pounds. |
| May was also facing difficulty securing enough Labour votes to get the deal through, despite attempting to woo them with a package of guarantees on workers’ rights and cash for towns across the UK. | May was also facing difficulty securing enough Labour votes to get the deal through, despite attempting to woo them with a package of guarantees on workers’ rights and cash for towns across the UK. |
| If May fears she is heading for a heavy defeat she may pull the vote on her deal and instead hold an indicative vote to show the EU what parliament would accept before attempting another negotiation, but there is no certainty that Brussels would be open to more talks without a change in direction towards a softer Brexit. | If May fears she is heading for a heavy defeat she may pull the vote on her deal and instead hold an indicative vote to show the EU what parliament would accept before attempting another negotiation, but there is no certainty that Brussels would be open to more talks without a change in direction towards a softer Brexit. |
| In an article for the Guardian, Sam Gyimah, a Conservative who resigned as a minister to back a people’s vote, warned his colleagues across the parties against voting for the deal under government pressure, suggesting bad policy decisions such as the Iraq war were made under similar circumstances. | In an article for the Guardian, Sam Gyimah, a Conservative who resigned as a minister to back a people’s vote, warned his colleagues across the parties against voting for the deal under government pressure, suggesting bad policy decisions such as the Iraq war were made under similar circumstances. |
| “The framing of the choice is similar to the one MPs were presented with in the run-up to the Iraq war: military action against Saddam Hussein, or the risk of an attack on this country,” he said. | “The framing of the choice is similar to the one MPs were presented with in the run-up to the Iraq war: military action against Saddam Hussein, or the risk of an attack on this country,” he said. |
| This is like Iraq all over again – we must extend article 50 | Sam Gyimah | This is like Iraq all over again – we must extend article 50 | Sam Gyimah |
| “The prime minister’s version is a similarly artificial choice: her deal, or a chaotic and disorderly exit from the EU that we know will have severe consequences for our communities. MPs are effectively being asked to choose between the frying pan and the fire, in the hope they will choose the former and that will somehow be declared as a victory.” | “The prime minister’s version is a similarly artificial choice: her deal, or a chaotic and disorderly exit from the EU that we know will have severe consequences for our communities. MPs are effectively being asked to choose between the frying pan and the fire, in the hope they will choose the former and that will somehow be declared as a victory.” |
| The prime minister was poised to fly to Brussels in the early hours of Monday if there were signs of a breakthrough but she was still undecided late on Sunday night about whether to make a last-minute dash. She was also wavering over whether to make a statement on the issue in the Commons on Monday. | The prime minister was poised to fly to Brussels in the early hours of Monday if there were signs of a breakthrough but she was still undecided late on Sunday night about whether to make a last-minute dash. She was also wavering over whether to make a statement on the issue in the Commons on Monday. |
| If May fails to pass her deal, Labour said it was open to working with other parties to secure a better Brexit deal involving a customs union. But the prospect of parliament seizing control of the negotiations has heightened the chance of Tory Eurosceptics attempting to replace May. | If May fails to pass her deal, Labour said it was open to working with other parties to secure a better Brexit deal involving a customs union. But the prospect of parliament seizing control of the negotiations has heightened the chance of Tory Eurosceptics attempting to replace May. |
| The environment secretary is to pitch himself as a “unity candidate” capable of attracting leavers and remainers, as he formally declared his candidacy saying: “I believe that I’m ready to unite the Conservative and Unionist party, ready to deliver Brexit and ready to lead this great country.” But robust Brexiters in particular dislike the fact that he stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. | |
| The health secretary remains a relative outsider, but the longer the race goes on, the more he gains ground for the seemingly basic virtues of being apparently competent and broadly similar to a normal human being, albeit a particularly energetic one. A concerted effort would probably require an image consultant. | |
| Fears that the foreign secretary would be another overly woolly compromise choice were hardly assuaged when after a set-piece speech he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. | |
| The home secretary still has the same weaknesses: he is an uninspiring speaker and some worry he is too fond of headline-grabbing, illiberal political gestures. But he is almost as ubiquitous as Liz Truss, and clearly believes this is his time. | |
| The out-and-out favourite, so popular with the Tory grassroots that it would be hard for MPs to not make Johnson one of the final two. He has been relatively quiet recently, beyond his regular Telegraph column, but this is very deliberate. | |
| The former House of Commons leader, who left Theresa May as the last candidate standing when she pulled out of the previous leadership race in 2016, has decided to have another tilt at the top job, saying she has the “experience and confidence” to “lead this country into a brighter future”. But even with her staunch Brexiter tendencies, she would be seen as an outsider. | |
| The housing minister is credited as the convener of both Conservative leavers and remainers to develop a compromise on May’s withdrawal agreement. He said there was a “yearning for change”. The 52-year-old is a former deputy mayor of London and entered the Commons in 2015 when David Cameron’s Conservatives won a majority. His name was given to the “Malthouse compromise” – a proposal drawn up by backbenchers from leave and remain wings of the Tory party, which would have implemented May’s Brexit deal with the backstop replaced by alternative arrangements. | |
| The former work and pensions secretary, who quit last year over May’s Brexit plans, has launched her own in-party campaign group/leadership vehicle called Blue Collar Conservatism, promising to make the party more amenable to voters in deprived communities – mainly through a promise to deliver a strong Brexit and policies such as diverting much of the foreign aid budget to schools and police. | |
| Few things say “would-be leader in waiting” like a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse, and the former Brexit secretary duly obliged with this imageawash with tasteful pastel hues. He formally launched his bid in the Mail on Sunday. Among the more core constituency of Conservative MPs, Raab has been pushing hard, as has his semi-official “Ready for Raab” Twitter feed. | |
| The cabinet’s most recent arrival – Mordaunt’s promotion to defence led to Stewart becoming international development secretary – certainly has the necessary ambition and self-belief, plus a privileged if unorthodox backstory covering Eton, Oxford, a senior role in postwar Iraq and a bestselling book about walking across Afghanistan. He remains an outsider, not least because of his remain tendencies and slightly 2010 view of compassionate Conservatism. | |
| Sir Graham Brady, Penny Mordaunt and James Brokenshire are yet to declare their intentions. Liz Truss and Amber Rudd have ruled themselves out. | |
| Among other senior figures not expected to run are Brandon Lewis, Chris Grayling and Philip Hammond. Gavin Williamson’s recent sacking after the Huawei leak inquiry will also surely rule him out as an option this time around. | |
| Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary who is tipped to run for leader and already has a grassroots supporters group called Ready for Raab, told Sky News: “She has said she is going to step down. I would like to see her able to do that in a way of her own choosing. But the government has found itself in a precarious situation and, particularly if the government extends article 50 or tries to reverse the Brexit promises that we have made, I think that situation will get even trickier.” | Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary who is tipped to run for leader and already has a grassroots supporters group called Ready for Raab, told Sky News: “She has said she is going to step down. I would like to see her able to do that in a way of her own choosing. But the government has found itself in a precarious situation and, particularly if the government extends article 50 or tries to reverse the Brexit promises that we have made, I think that situation will get even trickier.” |
| Morgan, the former education secretary, also told the BBC’s The World This Weekend that it would be the “beginning of the end” for May’s policy if the Commons again votes down her deal and then votes against a no-deal Brexit and for an extension of article 50. | Morgan, the former education secretary, also told the BBC’s The World This Weekend that it would be the “beginning of the end” for May’s policy if the Commons again votes down her deal and then votes against a no-deal Brexit and for an extension of article 50. |
| “I think that her position is going to become slowly less and less tenable as parliament changes the government’s Brexit policy,” she said. “If the votes go this week in a way which means that the prime minister’s policy as she has set out and stuck to rigidly over the course of the last two-and-a-bit years is taken away, dismantled slowly by parliament this week, I think it would be very difficult for the prime minister to stay in office for very much longer.” | “I think that her position is going to become slowly less and less tenable as parliament changes the government’s Brexit policy,” she said. “If the votes go this week in a way which means that the prime minister’s policy as she has set out and stuck to rigidly over the course of the last two-and-a-bit years is taken away, dismantled slowly by parliament this week, I think it would be very difficult for the prime minister to stay in office for very much longer.” |
| She suggested the cabinet would have to “take a role in saying potentially to the prime minister, ‘Actually, things have changed significantly. We think you should think about your position, prime minister.’” | She suggested the cabinet would have to “take a role in saying potentially to the prime minister, ‘Actually, things have changed significantly. We think you should think about your position, prime minister.’” |
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