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Brexit weekly briefing: May’s Strasbourg dash brings no clarity Brexit weekly briefing: May’s Strasbourg dash brings no clarity
(14 days later)
Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing, undeniably essential reading now there’s barely a fortnight before B-day. If you would like to receive this as a weekly email, please sign up here. And catch our monthly Brexit Means … podcast here.Welcome to the Guardian’s weekly Brexit briefing, undeniably essential reading now there’s barely a fortnight before B-day. If you would like to receive this as a weekly email, please sign up here. And catch our monthly Brexit Means … podcast here.
Top storiesTop stories
It’s the week when all could change, or nothing could. When we find out what the next few weeks, months and years could hold – or not. Yes, it’s Brexit’s crunchiest crunch time yet. Maybe. With barely a fortnight to go, we still have no clue.It’s the week when all could change, or nothing could. When we find out what the next few weeks, months and years could hold – or not. Yes, it’s Brexit’s crunchiest crunch time yet. Maybe. With barely a fortnight to go, we still have no clue.
After making no discernible progress in Brussels on obtaining a unilateral exit mechanism to the Irish backstop, Theresa May promised a second “meaningful vote” would go ahead on Tuesday after being told she would lose parliament’s confidence if it didn’t.After making no discernible progress in Brussels on obtaining a unilateral exit mechanism to the Irish backstop, Theresa May promised a second “meaningful vote” would go ahead on Tuesday after being told she would lose parliament’s confidence if it didn’t.
After a last-minute dash to Strasbourg it emerged that assorted assurances – a legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement, some additional language in the political declaration – had been found.After a last-minute dash to Strasbourg it emerged that assorted assurances – a legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement, some additional language in the political declaration – had been found.
Variously described as an insurance policy or safety net, the backstop is a device in the Withdrawal Agreement intended to ensure that there will not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, even if no formal deal can be reached on trade and security arrangements. Variously described as an insurance policy or safety net, the backstop is a device in the withdrawal agreement intended to ensure that there will not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, even if no formal deal can be reached on trade and security arrangements.
It would mean that if there were no workable agreement on such matters, Northern Ireland would stay in the customs union and much of the single market, guaranteeing a friction-free border with the Republic. This would keep the Good Friday agreement intact.It would mean that if there were no workable agreement on such matters, Northern Ireland would stay in the customs union and much of the single market, guaranteeing a friction-free border with the Republic. This would keep the Good Friday agreement intact.
Both the UK and EU signed up to the basic idea in December 2017 as part of the initial Brexit deal, but there have been disagreements since on how it would work.Both the UK and EU signed up to the basic idea in December 2017 as part of the initial Brexit deal, but there have been disagreements since on how it would work.
The DUP have objected to it, as it potentially treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK, creating a customs divide in the Irish sea, which is anathema to the unionist party. The DUP have objected to it, as it potentially treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK, creating a customs divide in the Irish Sea, which is anathema to the unionist party.
Hardline Tory Eurosceptics also object to it, as they perceive it to be a trap that could potentially lock the UK into the EU's customs union permanently if the UK & EU cannot seal a free trade agreement. That would prevent the UK from doing its own free trade deals with nations outside the bloc.  Hardline Tory Eurosceptics also object to it, as they perceive it to be a trap that could potentially lock the UK into the EU’s customs union permanently if the UK & EU cannot seal a free trade agreement. That would prevent the UK from doing its own free trade deals with nations outside the bloc. 
Joint interpretative instrument Joint interpretative instrument 
A legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement was given to Theresa May in January 2019 to try and get her deal through the UK parliament. It gives legal force to a letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the commission and council. This stated the EU’s intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so it would not be triggered, or, if it was triggered, to get out of it as quickly as possible. A legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement was given to Theresa May in January 2019 to try to get her deal through the UK parliament. It gives legal force to a letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the commission and council. This stated the EU’s intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so it would not be triggered, or, if it was triggered, to get out of it as quickly as possible.
Unilateral statement from the UK Unilateral statement from the UK 
This set out the British position that, if the backstop was to become permanent and talks on an alternative were going nowhere, the UK believes it would be able to exit the arrangement. This set out the British position that, if the backstop were to become permanent and talks on an alternative were going nowhere, the UK believes it would be able to exit the arrangement.
Additional language in political declaration Additional language in political declaration 
This emphasises the urgency felt on both sides to negotiate an alternative to the backstop, and flesh out what a technological fix would look like. However, it failed to persuade the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, who said that while it 'reduces the risk' of the UK being trapped in a backstop indefinitely, it does not remove it. This emphasises the urgency felt on both sides to negotiate an alternative to the backstop, and flesh out what a technological fix would look like. However, it failed to persuade the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, who said that while it ‘reduces the risk’ of the UK being trapped in a backstop indefinitely, it does not remove it.
Prime minister Boris Johnson  declared the Northern Ireland backstop “dead” during his leadership campaign, and promised to throw it out of any deal he re-negotiated with the EU. The EU has repeatedly stated that it will not re-open the Withdrawal Agreement for re-negotiation.  Boris Johnson declared the Northern Ireland backstop ‘dead’ during his leadership campaign, and promised to throw it out of any deal he renegotiated with the EU. The EU has repeatedly stated that it will not reopen the withdrawal agreement for renegotiation. 
Daniel Boffey, Martin Belam and Peter Walker Daniel Boffey, Martin Belam and Peter Walker 
These could, in the government’s view, amount to the “legally binding changes” it sought, with a legal commitment to finding “alternative arrangements” to the backstop by December 2020. That, in turn, might allow the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, to soften his view that the UK risked being permanently trapped in the backstop.These could, in the government’s view, amount to the “legally binding changes” it sought, with a legal commitment to finding “alternative arrangements” to the backstop by December 2020. That, in turn, might allow the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, to soften his view that the UK risked being permanently trapped in the backstop.
All this might persuade some moderates. But this is, essentially, interpretation of what already exists. The withdrawal agreement itself has not changed, and whether hardline Brexiters in the Tory European Research Group – and the Democratic Unionist party – will now roll over is moot.All this might persuade some moderates. But this is, essentially, interpretation of what already exists. The withdrawal agreement itself has not changed, and whether hardline Brexiters in the Tory European Research Group – and the Democratic Unionist party – will now roll over is moot.
Should the deal be voted down once more (Eurosceptics warned during the week that even if May offered to quit in exchange for their votes, it would not pass as it stood), some Tories are openly muttering that the PM’s days are numbered.Should the deal be voted down once more (Eurosceptics warned during the week that even if May offered to quit in exchange for their votes, it would not pass as it stood), some Tories are openly muttering that the PM’s days are numbered.
After a week in which Cox blustered to no great effect on the backstop (annoying Brussels palpably in the process), Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, confirmed (again) there could be no substantive changes to the withdrawal agreement – but ended up offering to fudge things a bit around the edges.After a week in which Cox blustered to no great effect on the backstop (annoying Brussels palpably in the process), Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief negotiator, confirmed (again) there could be no substantive changes to the withdrawal agreement – but ended up offering to fudge things a bit around the edges.
In a speech in leave-voting Grimsby, May urged everyone – MPs and the EU alike – to “get it done”, warning defeat for her deal would mean uncertainty, delay and the possibility of Brexit being either watered down or even reversed.In a speech in leave-voting Grimsby, May urged everyone – MPs and the EU alike – to “get it done”, warning defeat for her deal would mean uncertainty, delay and the possibility of Brexit being either watered down or even reversed.
What nextWhat next
It all depends, obviously.It all depends, obviously.
So the government’s efforts to persuade the EU27 to provide “legally binding guarantees” on the backstop eventually delivered something. All will hang on whether the Brexiters and DUP are willing to compromise. A defeat is still very possible – if by no means certain.So the government’s efforts to persuade the EU27 to provide “legally binding guarantees” on the backstop eventually delivered something. All will hang on whether the Brexiters and DUP are willing to compromise. A defeat is still very possible – if by no means certain.
A narrow defeat (fewer, say, than say 50 votes) might tempt her May to try a third meaningful vote. Before that, though, she faces two further votes this week, on excluding no deal, and delaying Brexit – and possible ministerial resignations.A narrow defeat (fewer, say, than say 50 votes) might tempt her May to try a third meaningful vote. Before that, though, she faces two further votes this week, on excluding no deal, and delaying Brexit – and possible ministerial resignations.
But a defeat by more than 50 votes could put the prime minister under intense pressure from remainers to let parliament decide on the next steps – by which they mean seeking a softer Brexit. In those circumstances, she could yet decide to go.But a defeat by more than 50 votes could put the prime minister under intense pressure from remainers to let parliament decide on the next steps – by which they mean seeking a softer Brexit. In those circumstances, she could yet decide to go.
If there is to be an extension to article 50 (which even if May’s deal passes now appears almost inevitable, if only by a few weeks, to get the legislation through parliament), the EU27 will need to approve it at their meeting on 20 and 21 March; if they don’t there would a very high risk of the UK crashing out without a deal.If there is to be an extension to article 50 (which even if May’s deal passes now appears almost inevitable, if only by a few weeks, to get the legislation through parliament), the EU27 will need to approve it at their meeting on 20 and 21 March; if they don’t there would a very high risk of the UK crashing out without a deal.
If the deal is not agreed, there will be a fight over how long any extension should be, with leavers arguing for it to be as short as possible (ending before the new European parliament starts sitting in July) and remainers preferring a longer period to allow time for alternative options, including a referendum.If the deal is not agreed, there will be a fight over how long any extension should be, with leavers arguing for it to be as short as possible (ending before the new European parliament starts sitting in July) and remainers preferring a longer period to allow time for alternative options, including a referendum.
Best of the restBest of the rest
No-deal Brexit could cost Japanese carmakers in UK $1bn a year.No-deal Brexit could cost Japanese carmakers in UK $1bn a year.
Ryanair’s UK investors to lose rights in no-deal Brexit.Ryanair’s UK investors to lose rights in no-deal Brexit.
Unions attack May’s Brexit pledge on workers’ rights.Unions attack May’s Brexit pledge on workers’ rights.
Labour would back delay to seek better deal, says McDonnell.Labour would back delay to seek better deal, says McDonnell.
No-deal Brexit “could bring return of low-welfare egg imports”.No-deal Brexit “could bring return of low-welfare egg imports”.
Three-quarters of newly eligible voters would back remain in second poll.Three-quarters of newly eligible voters would back remain in second poll.
Delay Brexit to save environment, green charities urge PM.Delay Brexit to save environment, green charities urge PM.
Obscure no-deal Brexit group is UK’s biggest political spender on Facebook.Obscure no-deal Brexit group is UK’s biggest political spender on Facebook.
Arron Banks “ignored deal to stop pro-Brexit ads” after Jo Cox death.Arron Banks “ignored deal to stop pro-Brexit ads” after Jo Cox death.
Home Office to launch ad campaign for EU citizens on how to stay in UK.Home Office to launch ad campaign for EU citizens on how to stay in UK.
Poverty and climate more important than Brexit, says Corbyn.Poverty and climate more important than Brexit, says Corbyn.
End of booze cruise? Calais wine stores run dry due to pre-Brexit stockpiling.End of booze cruise? Calais wine stores run dry due to pre-Brexit stockpiling.
Hunt: UK-EU relations “could be poisoned” if Brussels fails to budge.Hunt: UK-EU relations “could be poisoned” if Brussels fails to budge.
Most EU treaties won’t be replicated in UK by 29 March, says minister.Most EU treaties won’t be replicated in UK by 29 March, says minister.
Home Office to amend registration rules for vulnerable EU citizens.Home Office to amend registration rules for vulnerable EU citizens.
£33m Eurotunnel payout not recoverable, government confirms.£33m Eurotunnel payout not recoverable, government confirms.
Brexit vote brought UK feelgood factor to abrupt halt, says ONS.Brexit vote brought UK feelgood factor to abrupt halt, says ONS.
Leave.EU would lose web address in no-deal Brexit.Leave.EU would lose web address in no-deal Brexit.
No-deal Brexit would plunge UK economy into recession – OECD.No-deal Brexit would plunge UK economy into recession – OECD.
US ambassador dismisses UK criticism over food standards.US ambassador dismisses UK criticism over food standards.
No-deal Brexit could cost Japanese carmakers in UK $1bn a year.No-deal Brexit could cost Japanese carmakers in UK $1bn a year.
Ryanair’s UK investors to lose rights in no-deal Brexit.Ryanair’s UK investors to lose rights in no-deal Brexit.
Unions attack May’s Brexit pledge on workers’ rights.Unions attack May’s Brexit pledge on workers’ rights.
Labour would back delay to seek better deal, says McDonnell.Labour would back delay to seek better deal, says McDonnell.
No-deal Brexit “could bring return of low-welfare egg imports”.No-deal Brexit “could bring return of low-welfare egg imports”.
Three-quarters of newly eligible voters would back remain in second poll.Three-quarters of newly eligible voters would back remain in second poll.
Delay Brexit to save environment, green charities urge PM.Delay Brexit to save environment, green charities urge PM.
Obscure no-deal Brexit group is UK’s biggest political spender on Facebook.Obscure no-deal Brexit group is UK’s biggest political spender on Facebook.
Arron Banks “ignored deal to stop pro-Brexit ads” after Jo Cox death.Arron Banks “ignored deal to stop pro-Brexit ads” after Jo Cox death.
Home Office to launch ad campaign for EU citizens on how to stay in UK.Home Office to launch ad campaign for EU citizens on how to stay in UK.
Poverty and climate more important than Brexit, says Corbyn.Poverty and climate more important than Brexit, says Corbyn.
End of booze cruise? Calais wine stores run dry due to pre-Brexit stockpiling.End of booze cruise? Calais wine stores run dry due to pre-Brexit stockpiling.
Hunt: UK-EU relations “could be poisoned” if Brussels fails to budge.Hunt: UK-EU relations “could be poisoned” if Brussels fails to budge.
Most EU treaties won’t be replicated in UK by 29 March, says minister.Most EU treaties won’t be replicated in UK by 29 March, says minister.
Home Office to amend registration rules for vulnerable EU citizens.Home Office to amend registration rules for vulnerable EU citizens.
£33m Eurotunnel payout not recoverable, government confirms.£33m Eurotunnel payout not recoverable, government confirms.
Brexit vote brought UK feelgood factor to abrupt halt, says ONS.Brexit vote brought UK feelgood factor to abrupt halt, says ONS.
Leave.EU would lose web address in no-deal Brexit.Leave.EU would lose web address in no-deal Brexit.
No-deal Brexit would plunge UK economy into recession – OECD.No-deal Brexit would plunge UK economy into recession – OECD.
US ambassador dismisses UK criticism over food standards.US ambassador dismisses UK criticism over food standards.
Top commentTop comment
In the Guardian, Martin Kettle says Britain has cut itself adrift from Europe, and he fears it may sink – we have yet to grasp the scale and complexity of the next phase of Brexit talks:In the Guardian, Martin Kettle says Britain has cut itself adrift from Europe, and he fears it may sink – we have yet to grasp the scale and complexity of the next phase of Brexit talks:
The future political and economic relationship with the EU, most of which is airbrushed in the deal’s political declaration, holds the key to the country we will all live in for the next decade and more. That negotiation hasn’t even begun. What sort of relationship do we want to have with the EU in the future? The failure to answer this question remains bound up in Conservative party politics. May is frightened of giving the true answers – hug the EU close to ensure a Brexit that will work for as many people as possible. Instead, she has fed the belief that real divergence with the EU can now begin … But the next phase will be much more difficult and wide-ranging than the article 50 phase.The future political and economic relationship with the EU, most of which is airbrushed in the deal’s political declaration, holds the key to the country we will all live in for the next decade and more. That negotiation hasn’t even begun. What sort of relationship do we want to have with the EU in the future? The failure to answer this question remains bound up in Conservative party politics. May is frightened of giving the true answers – hug the EU close to ensure a Brexit that will work for as many people as possible. Instead, she has fed the belief that real divergence with the EU can now begin … But the next phase will be much more difficult and wide-ranging than the article 50 phase.
And Matthew d’Ancona argues that politicians’ character can be judged in this vital Brexit week – but they are putting blatant self-interest ahead of the Brexit vote:And Matthew d’Ancona argues that politicians’ character can be judged in this vital Brexit week – but they are putting blatant self-interest ahead of the Brexit vote:
On Wednesday, the Commons will vote on “no deal”, and will almost certainly mandate the government to rule it out. This, in turn, will force May to do what she has most dreaded, which is to give parliament the chance to seek an extension of article 50. And it is at this point that the character of our political class should truly be judged. Will it seek a meaningless three-month deferral, as the PM hopes, or – in dialogue with the EU – ask for a longer period, in which parliament can pause, draw breath and, if it sees sense, give the voters a chance to break the impasse? There are no risk-free options now, no steady as she goes, old-fashioned British compromise. The whole issue has to be reframed, re-energised and rescued from its present captivity. Jeremy Hunt has said the deal’s failure this week would risk “Brexit paralysis”. But where do he and his colleagues imagine we are right now?On Wednesday, the Commons will vote on “no deal”, and will almost certainly mandate the government to rule it out. This, in turn, will force May to do what she has most dreaded, which is to give parliament the chance to seek an extension of article 50. And it is at this point that the character of our political class should truly be judged. Will it seek a meaningless three-month deferral, as the PM hopes, or – in dialogue with the EU – ask for a longer period, in which parliament can pause, draw breath and, if it sees sense, give the voters a chance to break the impasse? There are no risk-free options now, no steady as she goes, old-fashioned British compromise. The whole issue has to be reframed, re-energised and rescued from its present captivity. Jeremy Hunt has said the deal’s failure this week would risk “Brexit paralysis”. But where do he and his colleagues imagine we are right now?
Top tweetTop tweet
An unnamed senior Tory, via ITV’s Robert Peston, sums up where things stand:An unnamed senior Tory, via ITV’s Robert Peston, sums up where things stand:
See my highly intellectual discourse with a senior Tory about the Brexit impasse. My contribution is the top one pic.twitter.com/ya2F6QslnhSee my highly intellectual discourse with a senior Tory about the Brexit impasse. My contribution is the top one pic.twitter.com/ya2F6Qslnh
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Brexit weekly briefingBrexit weekly briefing
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