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| Brexit Vote Updates: Theresa May Is Dealt a Blow | Brexit Vote Updates: Theresa May Is Dealt a Blow |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| • British lawmakers are debating Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal for Britain to leave the European Union. They are to vote on the proposal in the evening. | • British lawmakers are debating Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal for Britain to leave the European Union. They are to vote on the proposal in the evening. |
| • Dealing a blow to the prime minister, the British attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, said new legal language that Mrs. May obtained Monday night from the European Union fell short of providing a mechanism some wanted for Britain to exit the so-called Irish backstop. | • Dealing a blow to the prime minister, the British attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, said new legal language that Mrs. May obtained Monday night from the European Union fell short of providing a mechanism some wanted for Britain to exit the so-called Irish backstop. |
| • Parliamentary approval of the agreement she negotiated with the European Union would stand as the greatest victory of Mrs. May’s tenure, making possible a British withdrawal, or Brexit, which is now scheduled for March 29. But defeat, which is seen as more likely, would threaten her hold on power. | • Parliamentary approval of the agreement she negotiated with the European Union would stand as the greatest victory of Mrs. May’s tenure, making possible a British withdrawal, or Brexit, which is now scheduled for March 29. But defeat, which is seen as more likely, would threaten her hold on power. |
| • If Parliament rejects the deal, lawmakers would pivot to other votes later in the week, including whether Britain would leave the bloc without any kind of agreement, a so-called no-deal exit. | • If Parliament rejects the deal, lawmakers would pivot to other votes later in the week, including whether Britain would leave the bloc without any kind of agreement, a so-called no-deal exit. |
| Prime Minister Theresa May’s prospects of winning the crucial vote were dealt a significant blow Tuesday morning when the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, said that the extra assurances she had negotiated with European leaders did not fundamentally change the legal position. | |
| Mr. Cox said the concessions did “reduce the risk” of Britain’s being trapped in the backstop — an insurance policy to ensure there is no hard Irish border, and a main issue for opponents of Mrs. May’s deal. | |
| [What is the Irish “backstop”? Read our full explanation here.] | [What is the Irish “backstop”? Read our full explanation here.] |
| But Mr. Cox said that the assurances did not alter Britain’s rights and obligations. Were there to be a dispute, he wrote, the country would have “no internationally lawful means of exiting the protocol’s arrangements, save by agreement.” | |
| Mr. Cox’s opinion is likely to be influential for pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers who had been considering voting for the deal, and his views leave Mrs. May’s chances of winning the vote on Tuesday hanging by a thread. | Mr. Cox’s opinion is likely to be influential for pro-Brexit Conservative lawmakers who had been considering voting for the deal, and his views leave Mrs. May’s chances of winning the vote on Tuesday hanging by a thread. |
| On Tuesday morning, Mrs. May led a meeting of the cabinet and told her senior ministers that passing the vote would allow the country to move on to a brighter future, while the alternative would be uncertainty with no guarantee of what happens next. “Let’s get this done,” Mrs. May said, in comments released by her office. | |
| Mrs. May has delayed the withdrawal vote time and again in hopes that the looming deadline would pressure critics on both sides to give in. But she faces a very steep climb: Her earlier deal was soundly rejected by 230 votes in the 650-seat Parliament. | |
| To hard-core, pro-Brexit lawmakers — particularly those in Mrs. May’s Conservative Party — she has argued that unless her deal is approved, Brexit might not happen at all. | |
| The negotiations with European Union leaders late Monday provided some last-minute legal pledges to clarify the temporary nature of the Irish backstop. Mrs. May hopes the provisions will be enough to win over Brexit supporters in her own party, but skeptics labeled the assurances too little, too late. | |
| To lawmakers who wanted a softer Brexit — or none at all — Mrs. May took a different tack, arguing that the choice was between her deal and a potentially chaotic, economically damaging exit without an agreement in place. But allowing a vote on the no-deal scenario may have taken the edge off that threat. | |
| Even before the attorney general had issued his analysis, other legal experts had expressed similar opinions. | Even before the attorney general had issued his analysis, other legal experts had expressed similar opinions. |
| Apparently, the most that can be said for the changes is that they reinforce the notion that Britain can opt out of European trading rules if officials in Brussels are found to be negotiating in bad faith. | Apparently, the most that can be said for the changes is that they reinforce the notion that Britain can opt out of European trading rules if officials in Brussels are found to be negotiating in bad faith. |
| “In the real world,” wrote Michael Dougan, a professor of European law at the University of Liverpool, “such a prospect should be considered almost entirely theoretical, if not altogether fanciful.” | “In the real world,” wrote Michael Dougan, a professor of European law at the University of Liverpool, “such a prospect should be considered almost entirely theoretical, if not altogether fanciful.” |
| Three experts in European and international law, commissioned by Brexit opponents to consider Mrs. May’s last-minute tweaks, wrote in an 11-page opinion, “The backstop will endure indefinitely, unless and until superseded by another agreement, save in the extreme and unlikely event that in future negotiations the E.U. acts in bad faith in rejecting the U.K.’s demands.” | Three experts in European and international law, commissioned by Brexit opponents to consider Mrs. May’s last-minute tweaks, wrote in an 11-page opinion, “The backstop will endure indefinitely, unless and until superseded by another agreement, save in the extreme and unlikely event that in future negotiations the E.U. acts in bad faith in rejecting the U.K.’s demands.” |
| If you don’t understand the plan for the Irish border, you’re not alone. | |
| Confusing in the best of times and loudly debated almost all the time, the Irish backstop is shorthand for the question of how to deal with the border between Ireland, a European Union member country, and Northern Ireland, a part of the United Kingdom, once Britain leaves the European Union. | Confusing in the best of times and loudly debated almost all the time, the Irish backstop is shorthand for the question of how to deal with the border between Ireland, a European Union member country, and Northern Ireland, a part of the United Kingdom, once Britain leaves the European Union. |
| The backstop would be a way to avoid building a physical barrier with checkpoints for goods — the kind of barrier that the European Union has done away with inside the bloc. The backstop provision of Mrs. May’s Brexit plan says that so long as there is no long-term trade pact, Britain would remain in the European customs union and Northern Ireland would be bound by many of its rules. | The backstop would be a way to avoid building a physical barrier with checkpoints for goods — the kind of barrier that the European Union has done away with inside the bloc. The backstop provision of Mrs. May’s Brexit plan says that so long as there is no long-term trade pact, Britain would remain in the European customs union and Northern Ireland would be bound by many of its rules. |
| Britain could therefore remain tied to the European Union indefinitely without having a voice in shaping its rules — a nightmare scenario for hard-line supporters of Brexit. Mrs. May could cut a deal with the opposition Labour Party for a plan that keeps Britain closer to the bloc, but doing so would put her at risk of alienating her Conservative allies. | Britain could therefore remain tied to the European Union indefinitely without having a voice in shaping its rules — a nightmare scenario for hard-line supporters of Brexit. Mrs. May could cut a deal with the opposition Labour Party for a plan that keeps Britain closer to the bloc, but doing so would put her at risk of alienating her Conservative allies. |
| At the center of the Brexit issue is the Democratic Unionist Party, a small group of socially conservative, pro-withdrawal lawmakers from Northern Ireland who wield outsize influence because they prop up Prime Minister Theresa May’s government. | At the center of the Brexit issue is the Democratic Unionist Party, a small group of socially conservative, pro-withdrawal lawmakers from Northern Ireland who wield outsize influence because they prop up Prime Minister Theresa May’s government. |
| The backstop infuriates them not so much because it might trap Britain in the regulatory orbit of Europe, but rather because it might bind Northern Ireland to more European trading rules than it does other parts of the United Kingdom. | The backstop infuriates them not so much because it might trap Britain in the regulatory orbit of Europe, but rather because it might bind Northern Ireland to more European trading rules than it does other parts of the United Kingdom. |
| That effectively means trade barriers in the Irish Sea, splitting Northern Ireland ever so slightly from the rest of the United Kingdom. That’s unacceptable to unionists, for whom the link to Britain is sacred. The D.U.P. would rather kill the backstop and risk a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. | That effectively means trade barriers in the Irish Sea, splitting Northern Ireland ever so slightly from the rest of the United Kingdom. That’s unacceptable to unionists, for whom the link to Britain is sacred. The D.U.P. would rather kill the backstop and risk a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland. |
| The 10 D.U.P. lawmakers were coy early Tuesday about the tweaks that Mrs. May had obtained. But after Britain’s top lawyer said the new language didn’t substantially change the backstop arrangement, the government’s slim hopes of winning them over quickly deflated. | The 10 D.U.P. lawmakers were coy early Tuesday about the tweaks that Mrs. May had obtained. But after Britain’s top lawyer said the new language didn’t substantially change the backstop arrangement, the government’s slim hopes of winning them over quickly deflated. |
| The Belfast Telegraph reported that the D.U.P. saw the legal advice as “not exactly a ringing endorsement.” Other news outlets said D.U.P. officials saw no way that they could support the deal. | The Belfast Telegraph reported that the D.U.P. saw the legal advice as “not exactly a ringing endorsement.” Other news outlets said D.U.P. officials saw no way that they could support the deal. |
| A faction of pro-Brexit lawmakers within the governing Conservative Party appeared unlikely to support Mrs. May’s deal after a group of its lawyers officially recommended on Tuesday that the lawmakers should not vote for it. | A faction of pro-Brexit lawmakers within the governing Conservative Party appeared unlikely to support Mrs. May’s deal after a group of its lawyers officially recommended on Tuesday that the lawmakers should not vote for it. |
| Opposition from the faction, known as the European Research Group, would virtually kill Mrs. May’s chances of getting her deal through Parliament. | Opposition from the faction, known as the European Research Group, would virtually kill Mrs. May’s chances of getting her deal through Parliament. |
| The group of lawyers published its assessment of the extra assurances that Mrs. May had secured from European Union leaders, saying that the agreement still did not give Britain the power to extract itself from European trading rules that it would be forced to accept as part of the backstop. | The group of lawyers published its assessment of the extra assurances that Mrs. May had secured from European Union leaders, saying that the agreement still did not give Britain the power to extract itself from European trading rules that it would be forced to accept as part of the backstop. |
| “They do not provide any exit mechanism from the protocol which is under the U.K.’s control,” the assessment found. | “They do not provide any exit mechanism from the protocol which is under the U.K.’s control,” the assessment found. |
| Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, is likely to oppose Mrs. May’s deal but otherwise maintain his ambivalence over Brexit as part of his strategy to buy time and come out ahead, observers say. | Jeremy Corbyn, the leader of the opposition Labour Party, is likely to oppose Mrs. May’s deal but otherwise maintain his ambivalence over Brexit as part of his strategy to buy time and come out ahead, observers say. |
| Mr. Corbyn has said that he does not like the plan put before the British Parliament while “being imprecise over what exactly is Labour’s dream deal, other than that he wants a closer alliance with the customs union and single market,” said Jonathan Tonge, a professor of politics at the University of Liverpool. | Mr. Corbyn has said that he does not like the plan put before the British Parliament while “being imprecise over what exactly is Labour’s dream deal, other than that he wants a closer alliance with the customs union and single market,” said Jonathan Tonge, a professor of politics at the University of Liverpool. |
| In a Twitter post on Tuesday, Mr. Corbyn urged British lawmakers to reject the Brexit plan. | In a Twitter post on Tuesday, Mr. Corbyn urged British lawmakers to reject the Brexit plan. |
| “The Prime Minister’s negotiations have failed,” he wrote. “Last night’s agreement with the European Commission does not contain anything approaching the changes Theresa May promised Parliament.” | “The Prime Minister’s negotiations have failed,” he wrote. “Last night’s agreement with the European Commission does not contain anything approaching the changes Theresa May promised Parliament.” |
| [Read about how Mr. Corbyn’s efforts to play both sides of the Brexit debate are tearing his party apart.] | [Read about how Mr. Corbyn’s efforts to play both sides of the Brexit debate are tearing his party apart.] |
| Mr. Corbyn’s ambivalence has angered the party’s primary constituencies: Although a majority of Labour voters overall wanted Britain to remain in the European Union, Brexit supporters in rural areas and working communities make up about a third of the party’s electorate. | Mr. Corbyn’s ambivalence has angered the party’s primary constituencies: Although a majority of Labour voters overall wanted Britain to remain in the European Union, Brexit supporters in rural areas and working communities make up about a third of the party’s electorate. |
| Mr. Corbyn has consistently rejected a “Tory Brexit,” and recently said he would support a second referendum — a bid to stop a rebellion among Labour lawmakers in Parliament. But that proposal has angered many Leave voters — especially those who feel left behind by a party they believed had championed them. | Mr. Corbyn has consistently rejected a “Tory Brexit,” and recently said he would support a second referendum — a bid to stop a rebellion among Labour lawmakers in Parliament. But that proposal has angered many Leave voters — especially those who feel left behind by a party they believed had championed them. |
| “Corbyn can’t ride both horses forever but he’s already ridden for quite a long distance, and there is a certain logic to it,” Professor Tonge said. | “Corbyn can’t ride both horses forever but he’s already ridden for quite a long distance, and there is a certain logic to it,” Professor Tonge said. |
| If Parliament rejects Mrs. May’s deal on Tuesday, the focus would then shift to a vote scheduled for Wednesday on whether to oppose leaving without a deal, a move that would most likely require pushing back the originally scheduled departure date of March 29. | If Parliament rejects Mrs. May’s deal on Tuesday, the focus would then shift to a vote scheduled for Wednesday on whether to oppose leaving without a deal, a move that would most likely require pushing back the originally scheduled departure date of March 29. |
| Some hard-line Brexiteers insist that they would welcome a no-deal split as a clean and complete break from the European Union. But it is clear that most members of Parliament see it as more akin to driving over a cliff. | Some hard-line Brexiteers insist that they would welcome a no-deal split as a clean and complete break from the European Union. But it is clear that most members of Parliament see it as more akin to driving over a cliff. |
| Formal opposition in Parliament to a no-deal departure would ratchet up pressure on the government to seek a postponement of the deadline, something that would be contingent on an agreement between Mrs. May’s government and the European Union. | Formal opposition in Parliament to a no-deal departure would ratchet up pressure on the government to seek a postponement of the deadline, something that would be contingent on an agreement between Mrs. May’s government and the European Union. |
| The government could evade the March 29 deadline unilaterally, but only by revoking its decision to leave the European Union, a step that Mrs. May has insisted she will not take. But postponing or revoking Britain’s departure would give new hope to those who want to call a second referendum. | The government could evade the March 29 deadline unilaterally, but only by revoking its decision to leave the European Union, a step that Mrs. May has insisted she will not take. But postponing or revoking Britain’s departure would give new hope to those who want to call a second referendum. |
| The 2016 referendum won with 52 percent of the vote, but Brexit opponents hope that circumstances have changed enough to reverse the result. | The 2016 referendum won with 52 percent of the vote, but Brexit opponents hope that circumstances have changed enough to reverse the result. |
| If Parliament hands Mrs. May an embarrassing defeat on Tuesday, it would at least be a familiar experience. | If Parliament hands Mrs. May an embarrassing defeat on Tuesday, it would at least be a familiar experience. |
| Prime ministers rarely lose significant votes in Parliament, but Mrs. May has survived several Brexit-related setbacks that would ordinarily spell the end of a leader’s tenure, to say nothing of a stream of cabinet resignations. | Prime ministers rarely lose significant votes in Parliament, but Mrs. May has survived several Brexit-related setbacks that would ordinarily spell the end of a leader’s tenure, to say nothing of a stream of cabinet resignations. |
| Last fall, Parliament forced Mrs. May, over her objections, to publish both its legal and economic analyses of Brexit. | Last fall, Parliament forced Mrs. May, over her objections, to publish both its legal and economic analyses of Brexit. |
| In December, lawmakers voted for the first time in history to find the government in contempt of Parliament, for resisting the release of the legal advice. | In December, lawmakers voted for the first time in history to find the government in contempt of Parliament, for resisting the release of the legal advice. |
| Days later, Mrs. May postponed a vote on her Brexit deal, admitting that it would lose “by a significant margin.” | Days later, Mrs. May postponed a vote on her Brexit deal, admitting that it would lose “by a significant margin.” |
| Not since the early 1990s had a prime minister faced a vote of no confidence, either from her own party or from Parliament as a whole, but in the last three months, Mrs. May has experienced both. | Not since the early 1990s had a prime minister faced a vote of no confidence, either from her own party or from Parliament as a whole, but in the last three months, Mrs. May has experienced both. |
| She survived the vote in her Conservative Party after vowing to step down before the next scheduled general election. She narrowly won the House of Commons vote, 326 to 305. | She survived the vote in her Conservative Party after vowing to step down before the next scheduled general election. She narrowly won the House of Commons vote, 326 to 305. |
| But she suffered a series of defeats on Brexit-related votes in January, culminating in the 432-to-202 rejection of the Brexit deal that she had negotiated with the European Union. | But she suffered a series of defeats on Brexit-related votes in January, culminating in the 432-to-202 rejection of the Brexit deal that she had negotiated with the European Union. |
| In February, she called a Parliamentary vote to endorse her negotiating position — and lost, 303 to 258. | In February, she called a Parliamentary vote to endorse her negotiating position — and lost, 303 to 258. |
| She’s still standing, but it is not clear how much more she can take. | She’s still standing, but it is not clear how much more she can take. |