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Brexit: No-deal tariff plan would be 'sledgehammer' for economy, says CBI – Politics live Brexit: No-deal tariff plan would be 'sledgehammer' for economy, says CBI – Politics live
(30 minutes later)
Here is Stewart Jackson, the former Tory MP who was chief of staff to David Davis when he was Brexit secretary, on the Malthouse compromise amendment (see 8.55am, 9.11am and 10.32am.)
Memo to @10DowningStreet: Malthouse is your Willie Wonka golden ticket out of this shambles. Grasp it with both hands. https://t.co/qlzSKoor4k
Turning back to the government’s announcement about what tariffs would apply in the event of a no-deal Brexit, David Henig, director of the UK Trade Policy Project, has written a good blog with a preliminary analysis here.
Here’s an extract from his summary.
A serious attempt to balance the different interests at play, UK producers and consumers, developing countries, and future trade agreements ...
The hit to UK producers will primarily come from their inability to export tariff free, which will significantly affect competitiveness, though in some cases increased tariff free imports will also affect this;
Probably little effect on consumer prices overall, these are in any case downward-sticky when tariffs are reduced (quality at the same price tends to rise though), but cars likely to be a big exception, where prices will rise, and bikes may be an exception in the opposite direction.
And here is the Times’s Sam Coates on what happened at this morning’s cabinet.
Cabinet 90 minsTheresa May indicated she would whip against amendments today (straight no to no deal, Malthouse etc)Cabinet row ensued. Williamson, Grayling, Leadsom, Javid, Fox suggested whipping against Malthouse unwiseRemain wing led by Hammond for x-party consensus
Theresa May told that the party is coalescing around Malthouse and it would be mad to *whip* against itPresumably whipping against Malthouse would lead to resignations, not least from Kit MalthouseOne source says they doubt the three line whip position can hold to end of day
Another source said whipping not decided. “Number 10 know they have a problem and will hopefully sort it” said a cabinet source OuchIf you whip against Spellman-Dromey (straight no to no deal amendment) you have to whip against Malthouse. So what do they do?
Hammond told cabinet they have to do a deal, and find a cross party solution, try out lots of options. Others in cabinet think this is just a play for customs union membership
Williamson said it would be “daft” to whip against Malthouse. He said it was “Not clever” and “it’s going to cause a lot of problems”. I’m told he also said you needed a Commons vote on EU A50 extension offer
More cabinetJulian Smith indirectly blamed Geoffrey Cox for defeat this morning. He said if things had gone slightly differently he could potentially have got the DUP on side and lots of Tory colleagues still going on
The Telegraph’s Steven Swinford says Theresa May has been told she will face government resignations unless she gives Tory MPs a free vote on the Malthouse compromise amendment - the one favoured by Brexiters (see 8.55am and 9.11am.)
Cabinet latest:Half a dozen ministers - including Williamson, Fox, Grayling, Leadsom - warned against whipping against Malthouse (h/t @SamCoatesTimes)Williamson said it would have 'severe consequences' for partyMinisters expect No 10 will have to relent and offer free vote
New:A delegation of 15 Brexiteer ministers is meeting PM at 4.30 todayThey will demand a free vote on the Malthouse compromise and warn that they are prepared to quit if she will not allow them to back it'We will all go. It would be the end of her'https://t.co/2DZj1l1Q2U
Last night Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, said it was a “dangerous illusion” to think that the Malthouse compromise plan was on offer from the EU.
In his LBC phone-in Boris Johnson, the Brexiter former foreign secretary, said Theresa May’s decision to give MPs a free vote on extending article 50 tonight was “absurd”. He said:
I think this is a fundamental matter of government policy, whether or not you are going to disable your negotiators by saying you are willing to walk away from the table or not. If you are not able to walk away from a negotiation, what is your negotiating leverage?
And, on a non-Brexit matter, as the Daily Mirror’s Mikey Smith reports, Johnson triggered fury by saying that police spending on child sexual abuse investigations was “spaffed up a wall”.
In his speech to the European parliament Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, also said that the risk of a no-deal Brexit had never been higher. He said:In his speech to the European parliament Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, also said that the risk of a no-deal Brexit had never been higher. He said:
We are at a critical point. The risk of no-deal has never been higher. That is the risk of an exit - even by accident - by the UK from the EU in a disorderly fashion.We are at a critical point. The risk of no-deal has never been higher. That is the risk of an exit - even by accident - by the UK from the EU in a disorderly fashion.
I urge you please not to under-estimate the risk or its consequences.I urge you please not to under-estimate the risk or its consequences.
Earlier in the European parliament’s debate Melania-Gabriela Ciot - Europe minister of Romania, which currently holds the European council’s presidency - said EU leaders wluld expect a “credible justification” for any extension requested by the UK and for its duration. She said:Earlier in the European parliament’s debate Melania-Gabriela Ciot - Europe minister of Romania, which currently holds the European council’s presidency - said EU leaders wluld expect a “credible justification” for any extension requested by the UK and for its duration. She said:
The UK government and the British parliament have to come out with a clear sense of direction as to where there is a majority and timing as to when it will materialise.The UK government and the British parliament have to come out with a clear sense of direction as to where there is a majority and timing as to when it will materialise.
In the meantime, the only certainty we have is an increased uncertainty for citizens and for businesses with an already clear economic impact in terms of level of activity, investment and - more importantly - jobs.In the meantime, the only certainty we have is an increased uncertainty for citizens and for businesses with an already clear economic impact in terms of level of activity, investment and - more importantly - jobs.
Nigel Farage, the former UKip leader and chair of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group in the parliament, is speaking now.Nigel Farage, the former UKip leader and chair of the Europe of Freedom and Direct Democracy group in the parliament, is speaking now.
He says he warned Michel Barnier that the withdrawal agreement would not get through the Commons. The EU is now short of £39bn, he says.He says he warned Michel Barnier that the withdrawal agreement would not get through the Commons. The EU is now short of £39bn, he says.
He says opinion in the UK is hardening against the EU.He says opinion in the UK is hardening against the EU.
He says the UK does not want four more years of trade talks. And the EU does not want them either. He says the solution is for EU leaders to veto an article 50 extension at their summit next week.He says the UK does not want four more years of trade talks. And the EU does not want them either. He says the solution is for EU leaders to veto an article 50 extension at their summit next week.
Then the two sides would be able to get on with their lives, he says.Then the two sides would be able to get on with their lives, he says.
Farage urges EU leaders to rule out extending article 50.Farage urges EU leaders to rule out extending article 50.
This is what Guy Verhofstadt said in the European parliament about extending article 50.This is what Guy Verhofstadt said in the European parliament about extending article 50.
I don’t want a long extension. I say that very openly. An extension, where we go beyond the European elections, and the European elections will be hijacked by the Brexiters, and by the whole Brexit issues. We will talk only about that, and not about the real problems, and the real reforms we need in the European Union.I don’t want a long extension. I say that very openly. An extension, where we go beyond the European elections, and the European elections will be hijacked by the Brexiters, and by the whole Brexit issues. We will talk only about that, and not about the real problems, and the real reforms we need in the European Union.
The only thing we will do, we will give a new mandate to Mr Farage. That’s exactly wants. Why he wants that? For two reasons. First of all, he can continue to have a salary that he can transfer to his offshore company. And the second thing is that he can continue to do his dirty work in the European Union, that is to try to destroy the European Union from within ...The only thing we will do, we will give a new mandate to Mr Farage. That’s exactly wants. Why he wants that? For two reasons. First of all, he can continue to have a salary that he can transfer to his offshore company. And the second thing is that he can continue to do his dirty work in the European Union, that is to try to destroy the European Union from within ...
What we need is now certainty from the House of Commons ... And so I am against every extension, whether an extension of one day, one week, even 24 hours, if it is not based on a clear opinion of the House of Commons for something, that we know what they want.What we need is now certainty from the House of Commons ... And so I am against every extension, whether an extension of one day, one week, even 24 hours, if it is not based on a clear opinion of the House of Commons for something, that we know what they want.
Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe in the European parliament, and the parliament’s lead Brexit spokesman, is speaking now.Guy Verhofstadt, the leader of the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe in the European parliament, and the parliament’s lead Brexit spokesman, is speaking now.
He starts by telling Henkel (see 9.45am) that Henkel needs to address his remarks to his Conservative party colleagues in the European Conservatives and Reformists group.He starts by telling Henkel (see 9.45am) that Henkel needs to address his remarks to his Conservative party colleagues in the European Conservatives and Reformists group.
He says a long extension of article 50 would mean Nigel Farage staying on as an MEP. He would continue to get his salary, which he could pay into his offshore company, and he would continue to be able to do his “dirty work” in the EU.He says a long extension of article 50 would mean Nigel Farage staying on as an MEP. He would continue to get his salary, which he could pay into his offshore company, and he would continue to be able to do his “dirty work” in the EU.
Verhofstadt says he would be opposed to any article 50 extension unless the UK has decided what it wants.Verhofstadt says he would be opposed to any article 50 extension unless the UK has decided what it wants.
Hans-Olaf Henkel, the German MEP who is vice chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists in the European parliament, says the best solution would be for the UK to stay in the EU.Hans-Olaf Henkel, the German MEP who is vice chair of the European Conservatives and Reformists in the European parliament, says the best solution would be for the UK to stay in the EU.
He says the commission should help those in the UK who are campaigning for a second referendum.He says the commission should help those in the UK who are campaigning for a second referendum.
And it should offer reform on immigration rules. That would make a difference, he says.And it should offer reform on immigration rules. That would make a difference, he says.
He says the EU will never be complete without the UK.He says the EU will never be complete without the UK.
Manfred Weber, the leader of the centre-right European People’s party in the European parliament, and its candidate to be the next European commission president, is speaking now.
He says Brexit has let down a whole generation of young Europeans.
And he repeats the point Barnier made; the EU can only grant an article 50 extension if it knows what the UK wants. He says “the Brits” must clarify this at the next EU summit.
Brexit was made by populism, by easy answers. But the Brexiters cannot provide any easy answers now, he says.
Barnier is now speaking in English.
People ask if he is disappointed after last night’s vote, he says.
But he says his answer is always the same. The EU remains respectful of the UK, and it will remain calm and united in these negotiations, defending the EU and its citizens.
And that is it. Barnier has now finished.
Barnier says there can be no further assurances to the UK.
What will happen now? Barnier says there will be votes in the Commons on no deal, and on extending article 50.
He says he hopes the UK will eventually agree on a constructive proposal.
The EU needs an answer now, he says.
He says the UK has to explain why an extension should be granted. He says the EU cannot grant an extension until it gets an answer.
They have to tell us what it is they want for their future relationship.
What will their choice be, what will be the line they will take? That is the question we need a clear answer to now. That is the question that has to be answered before a decision on a possible further extension.
Why would we extend these discussions? The discussion on article 50 is done and dusted. We have the withdrawal agreement. It is there.
That is the question asked and we are waiting for an answer to that.
Barnier says the EU cannot grant an article 50 extension until it knows why the UK wants one.
Barnier says the EU is not being inflexible in relation to the Irish backstop out of dogma.
It is a matter of practicalities, he says. It is about protecting the single market.
Barnier says the next stage of the Brexit negotiation, the one dealing with the future trade relationship, will be more important than the current one.
He says if the UK wants an orderly Brexit, then the treaty already agreed is the only available one.
"This treaty is and will remain the only available treaty"EU's chief negotiator Michel Barnier says if UK still wants to leave EU in an orderly manner the current treaty is the only one available Latest #Brexit updates: https://t.co/bDw5xCMP3W pic.twitter.com/qamScchBOy
In the European parliament Michel Barnier, the EU’s chief Brexit negotiator, is speaking now.
There is a live feed here.
Barnier says last night’s Commons vote just prolongs and makes worst the deep uncertainty about Brexit.
Responsibility for the Brexit decision belongs solely with the UK, he says.
This is from the former Ukip leader Nigel Farage.
Have just come out of a meeting with Barnier and he is scared of a no deal WTO Brexit. There is also huge pressure on Mrs May, if she demands an extension, to give a firm reason why. There will be no blank cheque for it. I’ll be speaking in the European Parliament shortly.
Boris Johnson tells MPs that MPs will be debating the “very good” Malthouse compromise amendment last night.
Heading to table a #MalthouseCompromise Plan B amendment with @DamianGreen, @NickyMorgan01 and @Simonhartmp, supported by @Jacob_Rees_Mogg, @NigelDoddsDUP and Iain Duncan Smith pic.twitter.com/LzMbozTinJ
More about the #MalthouseCompromise may be found here:https://t.co/8Fbrf9YRPz pic.twitter.com/FuauVkj2fJ
Boris Johnson, the Brexiter former foreign secretary, is holding an LBC phone-in.
Nick Ferrari, the presenter, reads out a quote from Johnson saying it would be easy to negotiate new trade deals.
Johnson says he does not regret this. But only a handful of deals, to rollover the benefits of exiting EU trade deals, have been agreed, Ferrari says.
Johnson claims there is still time to get a better deal from the EU. He says the EU always agrees deals at the last moment. Or the horses change in the final furlong, as he puts it.
I covered a lot of EU summits, I have been to a lot of them in my time, I have seen how the EU works.
The horses always change places in the final furlong, it’s always at five minutes to midnight that the real deal is done.
In Brussels the real fix is always in at the end.
Rees-Mogg says the most likely thing now is the UK leaving on 29 March without a deal.
But he says people who want to delay Brexit, like Yvette Cooper and Dominic Grieve, want to stop it entirely.
And that’s it. His LBC interview is over.