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Brussels, Sick of Brexit, Braces for a Deadline Debate Brussels, Sick of Brexit, Braces for a Deadline Debate
(about 1 hour later)
BRUSSELS — It is hard to overestimate the level of exasperation in Brussels with Britain and its wounded prime minister, Theresa May. The jokes are dark, the anger is palpable and the sense of entrapment in a bad version of “Groundhog Day” is bitter. The rest of the European Union wants to move on, to focus on the urgent problems of slowing economic growth, youth unemployment, populism, Russia, China and President Trump.BRUSSELS — It is hard to overestimate the level of exasperation in Brussels with Britain and its wounded prime minister, Theresa May. The jokes are dark, the anger is palpable and the sense of entrapment in a bad version of “Groundhog Day” is bitter. The rest of the European Union wants to move on, to focus on the urgent problems of slowing economic growth, youth unemployment, populism, Russia, China and President Trump.
Most look beyond Britain to the multinational elections for a new European Parliament that begin on May 23. More than usual, these will be fought out on national grounds, with populists of the left and right pressing to overturn the European order.Most look beyond Britain to the multinational elections for a new European Parliament that begin on May 23. More than usual, these will be fought out on national grounds, with populists of the left and right pressing to overturn the European order.
The whole timetable for Brexit has been predicated on getting it done before the elections, to avoid giving populists across the bloc a helpful campaign topic. It is a particular concern to President Emmanuel Macron of France, who is battling to restore his authority in the face of the protests of the gilets jaunes and the far right.The whole timetable for Brexit has been predicated on getting it done before the elections, to avoid giving populists across the bloc a helpful campaign topic. It is a particular concern to President Emmanuel Macron of France, who is battling to restore his authority in the face of the protests of the gilets jaunes and the far right.
“There is real frustration with Britain, but there are also real costs to Europe,” said Ian Lesser, director of the German Marshall Fund in Brussels. “Both Donald Trump and the Brexit drama have called out many recessed questions in Europe, big-picture questions: What is the core of Europe? What is the periphery? Where is Europe going, what’s the consensus around the European project, what’s Europe’s role in the world and what is the quality of European leadership?”“There is real frustration with Britain, but there are also real costs to Europe,” said Ian Lesser, director of the German Marshall Fund in Brussels. “Both Donald Trump and the Brexit drama have called out many recessed questions in Europe, big-picture questions: What is the core of Europe? What is the periphery? Where is Europe going, what’s the consensus around the European project, what’s Europe’s role in the world and what is the quality of European leadership?”
There were a lot of issues to deal with, Mr. Lesser said, and the Brexit mess was causing “anxiety even among competent leaders in Europe that the public will not follow them,” a sense that a period of elite complacency about Europe and the world was ending, but in a bewildering way.There were a lot of issues to deal with, Mr. Lesser said, and the Brexit mess was causing “anxiety even among competent leaders in Europe that the public will not follow them,” a sense that a period of elite complacency about Europe and the world was ending, but in a bewildering way.
As for Mrs. May, she is regarded as a nearly hopeless case who lost her authority months ago, not just over her Parliament and her Conservative Party but even over her own cabinet. Some in Brussels compare her to the Black Knight in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail,” who still wants to fight after having lost all his limbs.As for Mrs. May, she is regarded as a nearly hopeless case who lost her authority months ago, not just over her Parliament and her Conservative Party but even over her own cabinet. Some in Brussels compare her to the Black Knight in “Monty Python and the Holy Grail,” who still wants to fight after having lost all his limbs.
Her effort to push through the withdrawal agreement painfully negotiated with the European Union has been crushed in Parliament two times, like losing both arms. Now she wants to try again, and then possibly a fourth time.Her effort to push through the withdrawal agreement painfully negotiated with the European Union has been crushed in Parliament two times, like losing both arms. Now she wants to try again, and then possibly a fourth time.
While there is hope that she will finally succeed before March 29, when Britain is supposed to leave the European Union, there is deep skepticism that she will do so, or that anything coherent would quickly emerge if she failed. This week alone, the British Parliament voted against her deal, against leaving without a deal, against taking control of the process, against a second referendum and for an extension to the March 29 deadline.While there is hope that she will finally succeed before March 29, when Britain is supposed to leave the European Union, there is deep skepticism that she will do so, or that anything coherent would quickly emerge if she failed. This week alone, the British Parliament voted against her deal, against leaving without a deal, against taking control of the process, against a second referendum and for an extension to the March 29 deadline.
But there is no indication that an effective cross-party revolt will emerge in favor of an alternative, softer Brexit deal, as some in Brussels were hoping — or at least not in time. It’s considered more likely, given the state of the Conservative Party, that Mrs. May would fall and be replaced by a harder-line Brexit supporter.But there is no indication that an effective cross-party revolt will emerge in favor of an alternative, softer Brexit deal, as some in Brussels were hoping — or at least not in time. It’s considered more likely, given the state of the Conservative Party, that Mrs. May would fall and be replaced by a harder-line Brexit supporter.
The frustration ranges from Michel Barnier, the chief European negotiator, who has called the withdrawal agreement “done and dusted” and said that any extension must be for a purpose, to Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister and a possible next president of the European Council, who said: “The U.K. has to tell us what they want, instead of fooling around for a few more months, stating we don’t want a hard border in the Irish Sea or whatever.”The frustration ranges from Michel Barnier, the chief European negotiator, who has called the withdrawal agreement “done and dusted” and said that any extension must be for a purpose, to Mark Rutte, the Dutch prime minister and a possible next president of the European Council, who said: “The U.K. has to tell us what they want, instead of fooling around for a few more months, stating we don’t want a hard border in the Irish Sea or whatever.”
Instead, against all Mrs. May’s previous statements, the British will ask the other members of the bloc to extend the March 29 deadline — until June 30, if a deal is nearly done, or a year or more, if the current confusion and paralysis continues.Instead, against all Mrs. May’s previous statements, the British will ask the other members of the bloc to extend the March 29 deadline — until June 30, if a deal is nearly done, or a year or more, if the current confusion and paralysis continues.
That is a significant quandary for the other leaders, who will meet next Thursday and Friday and who must unanimously approve any extension request. A shorter extension should not be difficult, if a solution seems imminent, because it would end just as the current European Parliament disbands, so Britons would almost surely not have to vote in European elections.That is a significant quandary for the other leaders, who will meet next Thursday and Friday and who must unanimously approve any extension request. A shorter extension should not be difficult, if a solution seems imminent, because it would end just as the current European Parliament disbands, so Britons would almost surely not have to vote in European elections.
“If one option is probable chaos in Britain and in Ireland and damage to everyone’s economy, and the other option is safeguarding trade and growth, it’s not much of a choice,” said one senior European diplomat, who was not authorized to speak publicly.
But if a solution is not imminent, a longer extension of a year or even two is more problematic, since it postpones serious choices and means that Britain and Brexit would be issues in these elections, feeding populism and euroskepticism, and that the British would almost surely have to vote, too, to ensure that the next European Parliament had legal standing.But if a solution is not imminent, a longer extension of a year or even two is more problematic, since it postpones serious choices and means that Britain and Brexit would be issues in these elections, feeding populism and euroskepticism, and that the British would almost surely have to vote, too, to ensure that the next European Parliament had legal standing.
The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has urged the bloc to give the British government time to “rethink its Brexit strategy and build consensus around it.” But the heads of government have often been tougher on Britain than officials in Brussels, and there is no unanimity of views.The president of the European Council, Donald Tusk, has urged the bloc to give the British government time to “rethink its Brexit strategy and build consensus around it.” But the heads of government have often been tougher on Britain than officials in Brussels, and there is no unanimity of views.
One senior European diplomat said that a long extension would create too much uncertainty and make Europe too dependent on British politics. It would be better, the diplomat argued, to cut Britain loose and be done with it, and then see if the chaos that produced in Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain would force London to return to the table.One senior European diplomat said that a long extension would create too much uncertainty and make Europe too dependent on British politics. It would be better, the diplomat argued, to cut Britain loose and be done with it, and then see if the chaos that produced in Northern Ireland and the rest of Britain would force London to return to the table.
Positions in Brussels have hardened, diplomats said, and the rest of the bloc was better prepared for a “no-deal” outcome than Britain was. European businesses, no less than British ones, are being punished by the uncertainty, and there is wide skepticism that even a year’s extension, which could encompass a new British prime minister and another British election, would be enough for Britain to resolve its internal divisions.Positions in Brussels have hardened, diplomats said, and the rest of the bloc was better prepared for a “no-deal” outcome than Britain was. European businesses, no less than British ones, are being punished by the uncertainty, and there is wide skepticism that even a year’s extension, which could encompass a new British prime minister and another British election, would be enough for Britain to resolve its internal divisions.
Leaders will have to debate all this next Thursday, when they were scheduled to be talking about China’s challenge to the European Union, after a policy paper from the bloc’s executive arm this week for the first time called Beijing “a systemic rival” and suggested tighter rules for Chinese investments in Europe. This only adds to the frustration, and it would take only one negative vote to block an extension.Leaders will have to debate all this next Thursday, when they were scheduled to be talking about China’s challenge to the European Union, after a policy paper from the bloc’s executive arm this week for the first time called Beijing “a systemic rival” and suggested tighter rules for Chinese investments in Europe. This only adds to the frustration, and it would take only one negative vote to block an extension.
Still, Europe needs to retain a good relationship with Britain. A Europe without the British military and economy is a lesser player in the world, said Maria Demertzis, deputy director of Bruegel, an economic think tank in Brussels.Still, Europe needs to retain a good relationship with Britain. A Europe without the British military and economy is a lesser player in the world, said Maria Demertzis, deputy director of Bruegel, an economic think tank in Brussels.
“The frustration is real, but we pay politicians not to get fed up, but to sort things out,” she said. “Every country is entitled to its own unreasonableness. We need to take the historical view, that the U.K. is an ally and always will be, that it is a part of Europe both in reality and metaphorically. As hard as it is, we have to do the right thing and find a good deal for both sides.”“The frustration is real, but we pay politicians not to get fed up, but to sort things out,” she said. “Every country is entitled to its own unreasonableness. We need to take the historical view, that the U.K. is an ally and always will be, that it is a part of Europe both in reality and metaphorically. As hard as it is, we have to do the right thing and find a good deal for both sides.”