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| Global stock markets gain as investors predict cautious Federal Reserve – business live | Global stock markets gain as investors predict cautious Federal Reserve – business live |
| (about 1 hour later) | |
| An interesting move from British hotel chain Travelodge in response to the low unemployment rate: targeted recruitment of parents to work. | |
| Travelodge wants to recruit parents returning to work to fill post-Brexit staffing gaps, as it pushes ahead with 100 hotel openings that will create 3,000 jobs over the next five years, writes Julia Kollewe. | |
| Travelodge seeks parents to fill post-Brexit staffing gaps | |
| Travelodge chief executive Peter Gowers said: | |
| We are preparing in earnest for post-Brexit Britain. With thousands of new jobs to fill, we need more new colleagues than ever. We see vast untapped potential in parents who want to return to work. | |
| The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell by 47 points, or 0.18%, at the open to hit 25,801.88 points. Boeing, one of the 30 index constituents, fell by another 2.3%. | |
| The S&P 500 rose by only 0.13 points to 2,822.61, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 7.85 points, or 0.1%, to 7,696.38. | |
| US markets are not expected to follow the mildly positive mood set in Europe, with shares in aircraft manufacturer Boeing set to drop further when markets open. | |
| Boeing shares fell by 2.4% in pre-market trading, after Ethiopia’s transport minister said there were “clear similarities” between two crashes involving the manufacturer’s 737 Max model. | |
| The crash of Ethiopian Airlines flight 302 on 10 March and that of a Lion Air plane in Indonesia in October prompted the US and other countries to ground the Boeing 737 Max fleet. | |
| Futures in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq indicated they would remain flat at the open. | |
| More detail on the merger talks between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. | More detail on the merger talks between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. |
| Deutsche is one of the biggest banking employers in London, with its once mighty investment bank still employing 7,500 people in the capital. | Deutsche is one of the biggest banking employers in London, with its once mighty investment bank still employing 7,500 people in the capital. |
| Analysts at Barclays warned that while the “status quo is not sustainable in the long term” for Deutsche Bank, a Commerzbank tie-up would not be a quick fix. You can read more here: | Analysts at Barclays warned that while the “status quo is not sustainable in the long term” for Deutsche Bank, a Commerzbank tie-up would not be a quick fix. You can read more here: |
| Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank confirm merger talks | Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank confirm merger talks |
| A just-after-midday markets round-up: major European indices remain on the front foot – barring Germany’s Dax, which has slipped to a 0.2% loss so far. | A just-after-midday markets round-up: major European indices remain on the front foot – barring Germany’s Dax, which has slipped to a 0.2% loss so far. |
| The FTSE 100 has gained 0.6%, led by British American Tobacco, whose shares have risen by 2.4%. Miners continue to do well, while Lloyds Banking Group and J Sainsbury have both gained 1.7%. The mid-cap FTSE 250 is up by 0.4%. | The FTSE 100 has gained 0.6%, led by British American Tobacco, whose shares have risen by 2.4%. Miners continue to do well, while Lloyds Banking Group and J Sainsbury have both gained 1.7%. The mid-cap FTSE 250 is up by 0.4%. |
| Sterling is down by 0.15% against the US dollar at $1.3270 at the time of writing, while against the euro it has pared some of its earlier losses: a pound bought €1.1686, down 0.4% over the day. | Sterling is down by 0.15% against the US dollar at $1.3270 at the time of writing, while against the euro it has pared some of its earlier losses: a pound bought €1.1686, down 0.4% over the day. |
| The longer Brexit uncertainty continues, the lower the chances of the Bank of England raising interest rates at all during 2019. | The longer Brexit uncertainty continues, the lower the chances of the Bank of England raising interest rates at all during 2019. |
| Anything other than a 9-0 vote to maintain bank rate, the rate at which the Bank of England lends to commercial lenders, would be “inconceivable”, according to Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club. | Anything other than a 9-0 vote to maintain bank rate, the rate at which the Bank of England lends to commercial lenders, would be “inconceivable”, according to Howard Archer, chief economic advisor to the EY Item Club. |
| With Brexit now looking likely to be delayed and the economy looking soft overall in the first quarter, we believe that it is ever more likely that the Bank of England will sit tight on interest rates throughout 2019 – assuming that the UK ultimately leaves the EU with a ‘deal’. | With Brexit now looking likely to be delayed and the economy looking soft overall in the first quarter, we believe that it is ever more likely that the Bank of England will sit tight on interest rates throughout 2019 – assuming that the UK ultimately leaves the EU with a ‘deal’. |
| If there is a UK exit from the EU with a ‘deal’ by the end of the second quarter, it is possible that the Bank of England could raise interest rates from 0.75% to 1% in November if the economy is showing improvement helped by reduced uncertainty. | If there is a UK exit from the EU with a ‘deal’ by the end of the second quarter, it is possible that the Bank of England could raise interest rates from 0.75% to 1% in November if the economy is showing improvement helped by reduced uncertainty. |
| Even if this is the case though, the MPC could prefer to hold off acting for longer as it may well want to see sustained evidence of stronger UK economic activity. | Even if this is the case though, the MPC could prefer to hold off acting for longer as it may well want to see sustained evidence of stronger UK economic activity. |
| The Bank’s reticence to raise rates has been hinted at by Gertjan Vlieghe and Silvana Tenreyro, two of the nine-member monetary policy committee. | The Bank’s reticence to raise rates has been hinted at by Gertjan Vlieghe and Silvana Tenreyro, two of the nine-member monetary policy committee. |
| Weaker growth prospects have come on top of concerns about Brexit, according to Martin Beck, lead UK economist at Oxford Economics, a consultancy. He expects a 9-0 vote to keep policy unchanged, saying: | Weaker growth prospects have come on top of concerns about Brexit, according to Martin Beck, lead UK economist at Oxford Economics, a consultancy. He expects a 9-0 vote to keep policy unchanged, saying: |
| The economy’s recent performance has been broadly in line with the MPC’s expectations. But public pronouncements by some committee members on downside risks have indicated a dovish shift around the pace of future rate hikes. | The economy’s recent performance has been broadly in line with the MPC’s expectations. But public pronouncements by some committee members on downside risks have indicated a dovish shift around the pace of future rate hikes. |
| In February the Bank downgraded its annual GDP growth forecast for 2019 by 0.5 percentage points to only 1.2%. | In February the Bank downgraded its annual GDP growth forecast for 2019 by 0.5 percentage points to only 1.2%. |
| Meanwhile, even Michael Saunders – who has recently been the most hawkish member of the MPC, favouring increases in interest rates – has said that Brexit uncertainty means it is best to wait before tightening further. Beck said: | Meanwhile, even Michael Saunders – who has recently been the most hawkish member of the MPC, favouring increases in interest rates – has said that Brexit uncertainty means it is best to wait before tightening further. Beck said: |
| In light of the continued failure to get a Brexit deal through Parliament, Brexit uncertainty remains a key block on action by the MPC. | In light of the continued failure to get a Brexit deal through Parliament, Brexit uncertainty remains a key block on action by the MPC. |
| The Bank of England will also be in action later this week, with a monetary policy announcement on Thursday at midday. | The Bank of England will also be in action later this week, with a monetary policy announcement on Thursday at midday. |
| Anything other than a unanimous vote to keep interest rates on hold would be a shock, for fairly obvious reasons. | Anything other than a unanimous vote to keep interest rates on hold would be a shock, for fairly obvious reasons. |
| Governor Mark Carney and the eight other members of the monetary policy committee have been fairly open in their judgement that Brexit uncertainty is holding back growth. The Bank’s forecasts in February suggested that GDP growth this year will be the slowest since the financial crisis. | Governor Mark Carney and the eight other members of the monetary policy committee have been fairly open in their judgement that Brexit uncertainty is holding back growth. The Bank’s forecasts in February suggested that GDP growth this year will be the slowest since the financial crisis. |
| Footasylum shares are up by 74% to 81p today thanks to JD Sports’ offer, but that is still far below the flotation price of 164p in November 2017, when Footasylum was valued at £171m. | Footasylum shares are up by 74% to 81p today thanks to JD Sports’ offer, but that is still far below the flotation price of 164p in November 2017, when Footasylum was valued at £171m. |
| The 70-store chain, which focuses on selling branded trainers and tops to 16- to 24-year-olds, has issued a number of profit warnings since it floated, writes the Guardian’s Julia Kollewe. | The 70-store chain, which focuses on selling branded trainers and tops to 16- to 24-year-olds, has issued a number of profit warnings since it floated, writes the Guardian’s Julia Kollewe. |
| JD Sports to buy Footasylum for £90m | JD Sports to buy Footasylum for £90m |
| It’s something of a return to the fold for Footasylum, which was started in 2005 by the founder of JD Sports. | It’s something of a return to the fold for Footasylum, which was started in 2005 by the founder of JD Sports. |
| Both retailers are headquartered in Greater Manchester and JD Sports said there could be cost savings by moving some of Footasylum’s headquarters operations to its own base. | Both retailers are headquartered in Greater Manchester and JD Sports said there could be cost savings by moving some of Footasylum’s headquarters operations to its own base. |
| US ride-hailing app Lyft hopes to raise as much as $2.1bn (£1.6bn) in an initial public offering, beating its rival, Uber, to a stock market float. | US ride-hailing app Lyft hopes to raise as much as $2.1bn (£1.6bn) in an initial public offering, beating its rival, Uber, to a stock market float. |
| Updated documents published on Monday show that it will offer 30.8m shares on the Nasdaq exchange in New York. Lyft hopes they will sell for between $62 and $68 per share. | Updated documents published on Monday show that it will offer 30.8m shares on the Nasdaq exchange in New York. Lyft hopes they will sell for between $62 and $68 per share. |
| Lyft is seen as one of the major rivals to Uber, another US firm leading the charge in transport services. | Lyft is seen as one of the major rivals to Uber, another US firm leading the charge in transport services. |
| Lyft is not currently available in the UK, where Uber dominates among taxi hailing apps. However, both have been investing heavily in autonomous vehicle technology, which will remove the need to pay drivers’ fees, and electric scooter services for city centre travel. | Lyft is not currently available in the UK, where Uber dominates among taxi hailing apps. However, both have been investing heavily in autonomous vehicle technology, which will remove the need to pay drivers’ fees, and electric scooter services for city centre travel. |
| Just don’t expect any movement on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. | Just don’t expect any movement on interest rates from the Federal Reserve. |
| The handy Fedwatch tool from exchange firm CME Group shows what the likelihood of a rate move is, based on investors’ derivative purchases. On the left, it shows a 1.3% chance of a cut in rates, compared to a 98.7% chance of remaining stable. | The handy Fedwatch tool from exchange firm CME Group shows what the likelihood of a rate move is, based on investors’ derivative purchases. On the left, it shows a 1.3% chance of a cut in rates, compared to a 98.7% chance of remaining stable. |
| We should expect lower Fed forecasts for future rate hikes, GDP growth, and inflation, according to economists at UBS. | We should expect lower Fed forecasts for future rate hikes, GDP growth, and inflation, according to economists at UBS. |
| Members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are all but certain to leave interest rates on hold, at least if market expectations are anything to go by. Disappointing economic data have prompted a string of more cautious statements from Fed members. | Members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee are all but certain to leave interest rates on hold, at least if market expectations are anything to go by. Disappointing economic data have prompted a string of more cautious statements from Fed members. |
| “The steady beat of weak data will have increased the pessimism on the part of the committee,” said UBS economists, led by Seth Carpenter. | “The steady beat of weak data will have increased the pessimism on the part of the committee,” said UBS economists, led by Seth Carpenter. |
| We anticipate that the theme from the March meeting will, once again, be ‘patience’. While the FOMC continues to see a relatively robust US economy, various members are seeing increasing downside risks to the outlook. | We anticipate that the theme from the March meeting will, once again, be ‘patience’. While the FOMC continues to see a relatively robust US economy, various members are seeing increasing downside risks to the outlook. |
| The end of the current bout of quantitative tightening could start in July, with the balance sheet stabilised in December, UBS said. | The end of the current bout of quantitative tightening could start in July, with the balance sheet stabilised in December, UBS said. |
| Let’s get some more on what is shaping up to be the major story driving global markets this week: the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday. | Let’s get some more on what is shaping up to be the major story driving global markets this week: the Federal Reserve’s latest monetary policy decision on Wednesday. |
| A rate change is unlikely after the central bank previously said it would be patient in its approach, said Kit Juckes, global chief fixed income strategist at Société Générale. Nevertheless, market moves on Monday “mostly reflect optimism that the Fed has the market and investors’ backs”, he said. | A rate change is unlikely after the central bank previously said it would be patient in its approach, said Kit Juckes, global chief fixed income strategist at Société Générale. Nevertheless, market moves on Monday “mostly reflect optimism that the Fed has the market and investors’ backs”, he said. |
| The key decision facing monetary policymakers in Washington is what to do with a balance sheet which peaked at $4.5 trillion in assets – mainly built up under the quantitative easing programme to stimulate the economy following the financial crisis. | The key decision facing monetary policymakers in Washington is what to do with a balance sheet which peaked at $4.5 trillion in assets – mainly built up under the quantitative easing programme to stimulate the economy following the financial crisis. |
| Some investors appear concerned that selling off those assets – dubbed quantitative tightening – could have the reverse effect, slowing the economy further. Fed chair Jerome Powell may have a tricky job in balancing the desire to continue raising rates with caution on the economy. | Some investors appear concerned that selling off those assets – dubbed quantitative tightening – could have the reverse effect, slowing the economy further. Fed chair Jerome Powell may have a tricky job in balancing the desire to continue raising rates with caution on the economy. |
| Juckes said: | Juckes said: |
| We think they’ll confirm that the Fed’s balance sheet run-off will end this year, though they may not give us a lot more detail than that. As for rate policy, ‘patience’ is the watchword. | We think they’ll confirm that the Fed’s balance sheet run-off will end this year, though they may not give us a lot more detail than that. As for rate policy, ‘patience’ is the watchword. |
| There is likely a lot of water to flow under the Brexit bridge today, which could drive movements on British markets. The early signs have not been encouraging for Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal. | There is likely a lot of water to flow under the Brexit bridge today, which could drive movements on British markets. The early signs have not been encouraging for Prime Minister Theresa May’s deal. |
| Senior Democratic Unionist party politician Jim Wells said he does not think May would win a third vote on her deal even if his party does swing behind it because of a hard core of Conservative party Eurosceptics. | Senior Democratic Unionist party politician Jim Wells said he does not think May would win a third vote on her deal even if his party does swing behind it because of a hard core of Conservative party Eurosceptics. |
| Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, on Monday positioned himself firmly on the Eurosceptic side, while another 23 backbench Tories also wrote in the Telegraph that they would not back the deal. Read the full story here: | Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, on Monday positioned himself firmly on the Eurosceptic side, while another 23 backbench Tories also wrote in the Telegraph that they would not back the deal. Read the full story here: |
| DUP backing will not secure May's Brexit deal, says Jim Wells | DUP backing will not secure May's Brexit deal, says Jim Wells |
| You can follow all the twists and turns throughout the day on the Guardian politics live blog, ahead of an expected vote tomorrow. | You can follow all the twists and turns throughout the day on the Guardian politics live blog, ahead of an expected vote tomorrow. |