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| Bercow puts prospect of fresh meaningful vote in doubt by firming up his 'no repeat votes' ruling - live news | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, is now talking about his ruling about “no repeat votes”, that prevented Theresa May from bringing back her meaningful vote before the EU summit. | |
| He says there is talk of the government bringing back the vote on Thursday or Friday next week. | |
| He says that, for this to be allowed, there would have to a substantial change to the motion. | |
| And he says he has instructed the clerks to block any attempt by the government to ge round this ruling by tabling a “notwithstanding” motion - ie, a one-off rule change that would allow the debate to go ahead despite the usual Commons rule. | |
| Bercow restates his ruling that he will only allow a new vote on the Brexit deal if it has changed significantly. | |
| He says he will block any attempt by the government to use a procedural rule change to get round his decision. | |
| This is new, and unexpected. It has probably reduced the chances of the meaningful vote being brought back this week (MV3), and it makes the chance of MV3 never happening a distinct possibility. | |
| John Bercow, the Speaker, says he is putting eight amendments to a vote. | |
| Theresa May has lost again. Her attempt to defeat the business motion failed, and it was passed by 331 votes to 287 - a majority of 44. | |
| From Sky’s Kay Burley | |
| Standby for a DUP statement | |
| Theresa May could be quite close to announcing her resignation as PM. But, according to some new Ipsos MORI polling, she is still seen as having what it takes to be a good prime minister than all of her most obvious rivals. | |
| And this is from the Spectator’s James Forsyth. | |
| Tory switchers believe that Theresa May will go when the withdrawal agreement bill gets Royal assent | |
| From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg | |
| Last min nerves in Commons that biz motion, which enables the Letwin temporary takeover might be a tighter vote than assumed - be surprised if it doesn’t but could be close | |
| MPs are now voting on the business motion. | |
| If you are interested, you can read the text of it on the order paper here (pdf). | |
| On Monday MPs voted in favour of the Oliver Letwin amendment approving the indicative votes process by 329 votes to 302 – a majority of 27. Thirty Tories rebelled and backed the amendment. You would expect the result of today’s vote to be broadly similar. If it is not, that could be because support for the Letwin process has grown, or shrunk, over the last 48 hours. | |
| In the Commons the vote on the business motion has just wrapped up. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter, spoke against it, and it all got very public school. | In the Commons the vote on the business motion has just wrapped up. Jacob Rees-Mogg, the Tory Brexiter, spoke against it, and it all got very public school. |
| Then it gets niche. Rees-Mogg (Eton) accuses Boles (Winchester) of making a Wykehamist point: "highly intelligent but fundamentally wrong."Then he throws public school shade on Old Etonian Letwin of being more Winchester than Eton. Can't see Letwin coming back from that. | Then it gets niche. Rees-Mogg (Eton) accuses Boles (Winchester) of making a Wykehamist point: "highly intelligent but fundamentally wrong."Then he throws public school shade on Old Etonian Letwin of being more Winchester than Eton. Can't see Letwin coming back from that. |
| Today in parliament: - Rees-Mogg accuses Boles and Letwin of not respecting the result of the referendum.- Boles points out they voted for the Brexit deal, and Rees-Mogg didn’t.- Rees-Mogg accuses them of not acting like Etonians. | Today in parliament: - Rees-Mogg accuses Boles and Letwin of not respecting the result of the referendum.- Boles points out they voted for the Brexit deal, and Rees-Mogg didn’t.- Rees-Mogg accuses them of not acting like Etonians. |
| I am not sure @Jacob_Rees_Mogg’s denigration of @oletwinofficial as behaving more like a Wykehamist (alumnus of Winchester school) rather than the Old Etonian he is will win him many votes in Red Tory Britain | I am not sure @Jacob_Rees_Mogg’s denigration of @oletwinofficial as behaving more like a Wykehamist (alumnus of Winchester school) rather than the Old Etonian he is will win him many votes in Red Tory Britain |
| Here is ITV’s Robert Peston on the government’s decision to give MPs and junior ministers a free vote. | Here is ITV’s Robert Peston on the government’s decision to give MPs and junior ministers a free vote. |
| Been in transit. So only just seen Smith whipping notice. It is fascinating. @theresa_may will allow junior members of the payroll to vote with their consciences in indicative votes. She clearly took seriously risk that up to 20 ministers would have quit if no free vote | Been in transit. So only just seen Smith whipping notice. It is fascinating. @theresa_may will allow junior members of the payroll to vote with their consciences in indicative votes. She clearly took seriously risk that up to 20 ministers would have quit if no free vote |
| And another question from BTL | And another question from BTL |
| Hi Andrew, thanks to you and the Guardian team for greatly increasing my understanding of the political mess we're all currently living through. I have a question. Much is being made of the need for the PM to bring the ERG around to voting for her deal, and how their support is crucial. Isn't this only half the picture? Won't the staunchly Remain tories vote against her deal regardless, and so May won't have the numbers even with the ERG, DUP and the odd Labour straggler? | Hi Andrew, thanks to you and the Guardian team for greatly increasing my understanding of the political mess we're all currently living through. I have a question. Much is being made of the need for the PM to bring the ERG around to voting for her deal, and how their support is crucial. Isn't this only half the picture? Won't the staunchly Remain tories vote against her deal regardless, and so May won't have the numbers even with the ERG, DUP and the odd Labour straggler? |
| The remain Tories are less important, because there are fewer of them, but almost a dozen of them have voted against May’s deal, and so they do count. | The remain Tories are less important, because there are fewer of them, but almost a dozen of them have voted against May’s deal, and so they do count. |
| My colleague Rowena Mason has been looking at the numbers that May needs in more detail. She has sent me this summary of the PM’s situation. | My colleague Rowena Mason has been looking at the numbers that May needs in more detail. She has sent me this summary of the PM’s situation. |
| The magic number that Theresa May needs for her deal is 320 votes. It means she could get the withdrawal agreement over the line if she had: | The magic number that Theresa May needs for her deal is 320 votes. It means she could get the withdrawal agreement over the line if she had: |
| - 303 out of 313 Conservative MPs | - 303 out of 313 Conservative MPs |
| - 10 DUP MPs | - 10 DUP MPs |
| - 7 Labour and Independent MPs who have already backed her deal | - 7 Labour and Independent MPs who have already backed her deal |
| So unless she gets more Labour abstentions or votes, she can only afford to lose 10 Tory votes. This means it is still looking extremely tight for her – even assuming the eventual backing of Eurosceptic big beasts like Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and the DUP. | So unless she gets more Labour abstentions or votes, she can only afford to lose 10 Tory votes. This means it is still looking extremely tight for her – even assuming the eventual backing of Eurosceptic big beasts like Boris Johnson, Jacob Rees-Mogg and the DUP. |
| There are currently six or seven Tory MPs (eg Justine Greening and Sam Gyimah) who want a second referendum and therefore guaranteed to vote down May’s deal come what may. And there are undoubtedly more than a dozen Tory Eurosceptic MPs who currently say they are still immovably opposed – like Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Baker, Crispin Blunt and Julian Lewis. | There are currently six or seven Tory MPs (eg Justine Greening and Sam Gyimah) who want a second referendum and therefore guaranteed to vote down May’s deal come what may. And there are undoubtedly more than a dozen Tory Eurosceptic MPs who currently say they are still immovably opposed – like Andrea Jenkyns, Steve Baker, Crispin Blunt and Julian Lewis. |
| Here is a question from BTL, or two. | Here is a question from BTL, or two. |
| @Andrew2 Questions...1. You posted on Monday night that the orders for today had also called for Monday to be given over to Parliamentary business rather than Government business. Is there anything to stop them repeating that process into Tuesday or some other day next week?2. Peston last night on ITV suggested that the AG and Cabinet Secretary were of the view that anything that Parliament does decide (seems a long way off, I know) would be binding on the Executive. So if the votes ended up with - let's say - Revoke, she'd be obliged to go to Brussels and do that - or be in contempt (again) etc | @Andrew2 Questions...1. You posted on Monday night that the orders for today had also called for Monday to be given over to Parliamentary business rather than Government business. Is there anything to stop them repeating that process into Tuesday or some other day next week?2. Peston last night on ITV suggested that the AG and Cabinet Secretary were of the view that anything that Parliament does decide (seems a long way off, I know) would be binding on the Executive. So if the votes ended up with - let's say - Revoke, she'd be obliged to go to Brussels and do that - or be in contempt (again) etc |
| Thanks v much - your work is greatly appreciated. | Thanks v much - your work is greatly appreciated. |
| Obscure, Constitutional issues I know but quite pertinent here. | Obscure, Constitutional issues I know but quite pertinent here. |
| 1) No, nothing at all. In theory the process could be self-perpetuating. That is why it alarms the government so much – even though Oliver Letwin did say earlier that, after Monday, if ministers were to accept what the Commons proposes, there would be no need for him to seize the order paper on any more days. | 1) No, nothing at all. In theory the process could be self-perpetuating. That is why it alarms the government so much – even though Oliver Letwin did say earlier that, after Monday, if ministers were to accept what the Commons proposes, there would be no need for him to seize the order paper on any more days. |
| 2) I did not see Peston’s report, but there is a write-up of it here. | 2) I did not see Peston’s report, but there is a write-up of it here. |
| Whether the PM would be bound by the vote would depend on the precise wording. Normally Commons motions are not binding on the government. But some categories of motions are considered binding – eg, “humble address” ones, and also, I think, ones that require or order (“mandate”, to use Peston’s word) the government to do something. | Whether the PM would be bound by the vote would depend on the precise wording. Normally Commons motions are not binding on the government. But some categories of motions are considered binding – eg, “humble address” ones, and also, I think, ones that require or order (“mandate”, to use Peston’s word) the government to do something. |
| But these votes would not necessarily be legally binding, in the sense of capable of being enforced by a court. To bind the hands of the government in that way, MPs would have to pass legislation. | But these votes would not necessarily be legally binding, in the sense of capable of being enforced by a court. To bind the hands of the government in that way, MPs would have to pass legislation. |
| It would be interesting to read the Sedwill/Cox advice. I’m sure they know more than me. But the Peston story talks about May possibly being in breach of the ministerial code if she failed to follow an instruction of parliament. That may be the case, but the person ultimately in charge of deciding whether or not a minister has broken the ministerial code is – the PM herself. | It would be interesting to read the Sedwill/Cox advice. I’m sure they know more than me. But the Peston story talks about May possibly being in breach of the ministerial code if she failed to follow an instruction of parliament. That may be the case, but the person ultimately in charge of deciding whether or not a minister has broken the ministerial code is – the PM herself. |
| Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman confirmed that the party would whip for Margaret Beckett’s “confirmatory public vote” option – as well as Gareth Snell’s and Ken Clarke’s, calling for a customs union, and of course the one setting out Labour’s own Brexit policy. | Jeremy Corbyn’s spokesman confirmed that the party would whip for Margaret Beckett’s “confirmatory public vote” option – as well as Gareth Snell’s and Ken Clarke’s, calling for a customs union, and of course the one setting out Labour’s own Brexit policy. |
| And he said whips would be “encouraging” Labour MPs to support common market 2.0, the cross-party proposal drawn up by Stephen Kinnock, among others. | And he said whips would be “encouraging” Labour MPs to support common market 2.0, the cross-party proposal drawn up by Stephen Kinnock, among others. |
| The spokesman then embarked on a long justification of Labour’s support for a referendum – which has sparked a backlash, and could yet result in resignations tonight. He said: | The spokesman then embarked on a long justification of Labour’s support for a referendum – which has sparked a backlash, and could yet result in resignations tonight. He said: |
| The basis for that is that they’re all in line with our policy – in the case of the public vote motion, in the sense of our conference policy that if we’re unable to achieve a general election, keeping all options on the table. So the intention is to support those options going forward in the process – and obviously it is an unusual process, and these aren’t normal parliamentary votes. | The basis for that is that they’re all in line with our policy – in the case of the public vote motion, in the sense of our conference policy that if we’re unable to achieve a general election, keeping all options on the table. So the intention is to support those options going forward in the process – and obviously it is an unusual process, and these aren’t normal parliamentary votes. |
| Asked if shadow frontbenchers would be sacked if they disobeyed the whip later, he said “the discipline arrangements are a matter for the chief whip”. | Asked if shadow frontbenchers would be sacked if they disobeyed the whip later, he said “the discipline arrangements are a matter for the chief whip”. |
| Corbyn’s spokesman also pointed to the phrase “in this parliament”, in the Beckett motion, and suggested that meant that if a future Labour government were to negotiate its own, distinct Brexit deal – after a snap general election, for example – that would not need to be subject to a confirmatory ballot. He said: | Corbyn’s spokesman also pointed to the phrase “in this parliament”, in the Beckett motion, and suggested that meant that if a future Labour government were to negotiate its own, distinct Brexit deal – after a snap general election, for example – that would not need to be subject to a confirmatory ballot. He said: |
| The other issue of controversy about it is the issue about whether it implies support or abstention on Theresa May’s deal, which we have said we would not support in any circumstances. | The other issue of controversy about it is the issue about whether it implies support or abstention on Theresa May’s deal, which we have said we would not support in any circumstances. |
| That flatly contradicts what Corbyn’s deputy, Tom Watson, said in his speech to the Put it to the People march on Saturday, when he offered to vote for May’s deal in exchange for a referendum. | That flatly contradicts what Corbyn’s deputy, Tom Watson, said in his speech to the Put it to the People march on Saturday, when he offered to vote for May’s deal in exchange for a referendum. |
| In the Commons Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the house, is speaking now. | In the Commons Andrea Leadsom, the leader of the house, is speaking now. |
| She says she is disappointed that MPs voted for this process on Monday. It should be the government that decided what business gets debated, she says, not the house itself. | She says she is disappointed that MPs voted for this process on Monday. It should be the government that decided what business gets debated, she says, not the house itself. |
| She says anything the house decides must be deliverable and negotiable, and it must deliver on the results of the referendum. | She says anything the house decides must be deliverable and negotiable, and it must deliver on the results of the referendum. |
| She says the withdrawal agreement is complicated. And the EU has said it must be accepted if the UK is to get the transition, she says. | She says the withdrawal agreement is complicated. And the EU has said it must be accepted if the UK is to get the transition, she says. |
| She says the government will vote against the business of the house motion because it opposes the principle of the Commons taking control of the parliamentary timetable. | She says the government will vote against the business of the house motion because it opposes the principle of the Commons taking control of the parliamentary timetable. |
| The government could make another attempt to win a majority for Theresa May’s Brexit deal on Friday. | The government could make another attempt to win a majority for Theresa May’s Brexit deal on Friday. |
| Friday though remains a possibility for MV3. It is March 29 after all. Would require a change in house business, but can be done easily. | Friday though remains a possibility for MV3. It is March 29 after all. Would require a change in house business, but can be done easily. |
| The choice of Friday 29 March is not an accident. Although no longer Brexit day, it remains an important day in the calendar, because of the two-step extension process imposed by the EU last week. | The choice of Friday 29 March is not an accident. Although no longer Brexit day, it remains an important day in the calendar, because of the two-step extension process imposed by the EU last week. |
| EU leaders agreed to grant the UK an extension until 22 May if the withdrawal agreement is approved by the House of Commons “by 29 March 2019 at the latest”. But if the withdrawal agreement is not approved, the extension will expire on 12 April, a UK domestic deadline for confirming British participation in the European elections. | EU leaders agreed to grant the UK an extension until 22 May if the withdrawal agreement is approved by the House of Commons “by 29 March 2019 at the latest”. But if the withdrawal agreement is not approved, the extension will expire on 12 April, a UK domestic deadline for confirming British participation in the European elections. |
| The text of the EU’s legal decision states: | The text of the EU’s legal decision states: |
| In the event that the withdrawal agreement is not approved by the House of Commons by 29 March 2019 at the latest, the period provided for in article 50(3) TEU is extended until 12 April 2019. In that event, the United Kingdom will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European council. | In the event that the withdrawal agreement is not approved by the House of Commons by 29 March 2019 at the latest, the period provided for in article 50(3) TEU is extended until 12 April 2019. In that event, the United Kingdom will indicate a way forward before 12 April 2019, for consideration by the European council. |
| Some EU sources suggest there could be some leniency on 29 March deadline. If, for example, MPs vote for the deal on 1 April. “The text of the legal decision says that we need to vote by Friday,” a senior EU source said. “Quite honestly I think that we will be lenient on that. The real question is whether we have clarity in the coming days, if this going to work or not.” | Some EU sources suggest there could be some leniency on 29 March deadline. If, for example, MPs vote for the deal on 1 April. “The text of the legal decision says that we need to vote by Friday,” a senior EU source said. “Quite honestly I think that we will be lenient on that. The real question is whether we have clarity in the coming days, if this going to work or not.” |
| That remains unclear given the “volatile” nature of British politics that is changing day-by-day, the source said. | That remains unclear given the “volatile” nature of British politics that is changing day-by-day, the source said. |
| The EU has already pencilled in a summit for a few days before the 12 April deadline, although it is impossible to say whether that summit will be for EU leaders to decide on a long extension or help them prepare for no-deal. | The EU has already pencilled in a summit for a few days before the 12 April deadline, although it is impossible to say whether that summit will be for EU leaders to decide on a long extension or help them prepare for no-deal. |
| Last week’s meeting with Theresa May left EU leaders unconvinced that the deal would pass, but a positive meaningful vote three has not been completely ruled out. | Last week’s meeting with Theresa May left EU leaders unconvinced that the deal would pass, but a positive meaningful vote three has not been completely ruled out. |
| Neither, however, has a major government crisis leading to new elections. Officials see two outcomes from a soft Brexit result of the indicative votes process. “It could mobilise forces for a slim majority for May’s deal, or we will have a serious government crisis which will probably lead to elections,” the EU source said. | Neither, however, has a major government crisis leading to new elections. Officials see two outcomes from a soft Brexit result of the indicative votes process. “It could mobilise forces for a slim majority for May’s deal, or we will have a serious government crisis which will probably lead to elections,” the EU source said. |
| In that case it would not be clear if the prime minister would be in a position to request an extension. Whatever happens in parliament, for the EU it is the government that counts. “Our interlocutor is not the Commons, our interlocutor is the UK government,” the EU source said. | In that case it would not be clear if the prime minister would be in a position to request an extension. Whatever happens in parliament, for the EU it is the government that counts. “Our interlocutor is not the Commons, our interlocutor is the UK government,” the EU source said. |