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| Soft Brexiters hope 'Brexit fatigue' could sway Tory MPs | Soft Brexiters hope 'Brexit fatigue' could sway Tory MPs |
| (30 minutes later) | |
| Supporters of a soft Brexit believe that “Brexit fatigue” could eventually convince a significant number of Conservative MPs to compromise on either a softer exit deal or a referendum, if either could secure a majority in parliament. | |
| Days of intensive horse-trading in parliament saw the Labour frontbench and the Scottish National party convinced to back a Norway-style Brexit dubbed “common market 2.0”, the brainchild of Tory MP Nick Boles. | |
| However, supporters of a soft Brexit or a second referendum acknowledge that they must secure the support of far more Tory MPs in order for any option to have a chance of holding together a workable coalition. | However, supporters of a soft Brexit or a second referendum acknowledge that they must secure the support of far more Tory MPs in order for any option to have a chance of holding together a workable coalition. |
| Several believe that Tories could fall behind the option which appears to have the most momentum – and the most chance of delivering a swift resolution. | Several believe that Tories could fall behind the option which appears to have the most momentum – and the most chance of delivering a swift resolution. |
| This soft Brexit compromise has been championed as a plan B for leaving the European Union. | This soft Brexit compromise has been championed as a plan B for leaving the European Union. |
| It is based on Norway’s relationship with the EU, which is outside the bloc and the customs union but inside the single market. Under the plan the UK would have to join Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland in the European Free Trade Association (Efta), which would then allow it to participate in the European Economic Area (EEA). | It is based on Norway’s relationship with the EU, which is outside the bloc and the customs union but inside the single market. Under the plan the UK would have to join Norway, Liechtenstein and Iceland in the European Free Trade Association (Efta), which would then allow it to participate in the European Economic Area (EEA). |
| The ‘plus’ in this option refers to a temporary customs union with the EU, which would need to be negotiated to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This arrangement would remain in place until the EU and UK agreed a specific trade deal. | The ‘plus’ in this option refers to a temporary customs union with the EU, which would need to be negotiated to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland. This arrangement would remain in place until the EU and UK agreed a specific trade deal. |
| The option has the advantage of being as close to the EU as possible without full membership, and it would do away with the need for the problematic backstop for Northern Ireland. Like Norway, the UK would be outside the common fisheries and agriculture policies, and would not be subject to the European court of justice. | The option has the advantage of being as close to the EU as possible without full membership, and it would do away with the need for the problematic backstop for Northern Ireland. Like Norway, the UK would be outside the common fisheries and agriculture policies, and would not be subject to the European court of justice. |
| But it crosses a key red line for Brexiters by continuing freedom of movement, one of the preconditions of single market membership. It would also limit the UK's ability to negotiate its own trade deals while a new customs arrangement is under discussion. And it would require continued financial contributions to the EU without an influence inside the bloc, as the UK would no longer have MEPs or a seat on the European Council. It also isn't entirely clear that the UK would be welcomed into Efta. | But it crosses a key red line for Brexiters by continuing freedom of movement, one of the preconditions of single market membership. It would also limit the UK's ability to negotiate its own trade deals while a new customs arrangement is under discussion. And it would require continued financial contributions to the EU without an influence inside the bloc, as the UK would no longer have MEPs or a seat on the European Council. It also isn't entirely clear that the UK would be welcomed into Efta. |
| “A lot of people are in the place now where they just want to get something, anything, over the line,” one Tory frontbencher said. | |
| “That is where the majority of Tories are getting to – and I think the DUP will eventually support a customs union over the prime minister’s deal.” | |
| Others believe a referendum could be the least worst option for Conservatives. Tory MP Huw Merriman, parliamentary aide to the chancellor, Philip Hammond, wrote a letter to all MPs on Monday urging them to back the Peter Kyle motion for a referendum, saying he had got to the point where he believed it was preferable to a customs union. | |
| Brexit: Labour to back common market 2.0/Norway amendment for staying in single market – live news | |
| “If, like me, you are not a supporter of this option then I am appealing to you to consider the confirmatory vote option,” he wrote, though he said he sympathised with a constituent who compared the choice to “asking which leg he would like amputated”. | “If, like me, you are not a supporter of this option then I am appealing to you to consider the confirmatory vote option,” he wrote, though he said he sympathised with a constituent who compared the choice to “asking which leg he would like amputated”. |
| However, some MPs fear that Tories sympathetic to a second referendum have now been spooked by the treatment of Dominic Grieve, the former attorney general who backed a fresh public vote and lost a vote of no confidence at an angry local association meeting last week. | |
| “Tories saw the video of that meeting and are now thinking: ‘I don’t want any of that,’” one People’s Vote source said. | |
| The group backing a Norway-style Brexit won an early boost on Monday, with backing from the SNP and Labour, neither of whom had whipped for the option last week when it lost by 95 votes. | |
| A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole. | A customs union means that countries agree to apply no or very low tariffs to goods sold between them, and to collectively apply the same tariffs to imported goods from the rest of the world. International trade deals are then negotiated by the bloc as a whole. |
| For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements. | For the EU, this means deals are negotiated by by Brussels, although individual member state governments agree the mandate and approve the final deal. The EU has trade deals covering 69 countries, including Canada and South Korea, which the UK has been struggling to roll over into post-Brexit bilateral agreements. |
| Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union. | Proponents of an independent UK trade policy outside the EU customs union say Britain must forge its own deals if it is to take advantage of the world’s fastest-growing economies. However they have never explained why Germany manages to export more than three times the value in goods to China than Britain does, while also being in the EU customs union. |
| Jennifer Rankin | Jennifer Rankin |
| Organisers said gaining support from the SNP had been long in the making, with Boles leading the negotiations with SNP Westminster leader Ian Blackford. | |
| “It was the biggest test of SNP discipline that they have had. There are quite a few who do not want to back a soft Brexit,” one MP close to the negotiations said. | |
| Stephen Gethins, the SNP’s Brexit spokesman, said his party had to engage constructively with the process. | |
| “This is a way of keeping the least worst option in play, short of our preferred option to remain in the EU,” he said. | |
| “One thing I have noticed down here, compared to the Scottish parliament, is how this place is not good at minority government. But Nick Boles has engaged – he has been much better at it than the government.” | “One thing I have noticed down here, compared to the Scottish parliament, is how this place is not good at minority government. But Nick Boles has engaged – he has been much better at it than the government.” |
| Yet many Labour supporters of a referendum remain deeply suspicious of Boles’s plan. | |
| “They say they want to make a deal but then go on TV and say their plans mean Brexit can be done and dusted by July,” one Labour MP said. “But we don’t want that, we want a long extension so we can put the deal back to the people.” | |
| The Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has met Boles and his allies, including Labour MPs Stephen Kinnock and Lucy Powell, multiple times to discuss their proposal. | |
| “I think the SNP’s decision finally unlocked the Labour whip,” one MP said. “The SNP is very strong on the People’s Vote too, it becomes impossible for Labour.” | |
| Another key recruit for the group was former minister George Eustice, a Eurosceptic who quit the government over the prime minister’s deal, and Tory MP Andrew Percy. Sources said Eustice has been in talks with Tory Brexiters. | |
| However, Tory MPs who support a softer Brexit remain privately sceptical that they can convince Theresa May to support Boles’s plan over a simpler customs union. | |
| “We think the prime minister can come round to a customs union – at the end of the day, it is not even that different to her plan,” one said. “But this Norway plan goes a lot further, including free movement.” | |
| MPs will spend another day proposing and voting on alternative Brexit solutions. They will choose from options including voting for a no deal, a customs union, and a public vote on Theresa May's deal. | MPs will spend another day proposing and voting on alternative Brexit solutions. They will choose from options including voting for a no deal, a customs union, and a public vote on Theresa May's deal. |
| This will also be the day that parliament debates in Westminster Hall the petition signed by more than 6 million people asking for article 50 to be revoked to stop Brexit. | This will also be the day that parliament debates in Westminster Hall the petition signed by more than 6 million people asking for article 50 to be revoked to stop Brexit. |
| Theresa May's cabinet will meet to discuss what to do next after the outcome of the indicative votes. They could decide to go for another 'meaningful vote' on her deal, or potentially decide to call a general election. | Theresa May's cabinet will meet to discuss what to do next after the outcome of the indicative votes. They could decide to go for another 'meaningful vote' on her deal, or potentially decide to call a general election. |
| If the UK parliament or government changed tack and backed either a second referendum or a general election was called, then a lengthy article 50 extension would be required. EU leaders would decide how long at a summit they are holding on this date. | If the UK parliament or government changed tack and backed either a second referendum or a general election was called, then a lengthy article 50 extension would be required. EU leaders would decide how long at a summit they are holding on this date. |
| If Theresa May's deal is not passed by parliament, then, with no other developments, this would be the date that the UK leaves the EU without a deal. | If Theresa May's deal is not passed by parliament, then, with no other developments, this would be the date that the UK leaves the EU without a deal. |
| If Theresa May's deal does pass parliament, this would be the scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU. | If Theresa May's deal does pass parliament, this would be the scheduled date of the UK's departure from the EU. |
| Unless there is a further longer extension of article 50, the EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. | Unless there is a further longer extension of article 50, the EU27 will vote for a new set of MEPs without the UK participating. |
| If Theresa May's deal passes parliament, she is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on 22 March, triggering a contest for the leadership of the Conservative party. Although there has been some suggestion she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October. | If Theresa May's deal passes parliament, she is expected to stand down after the UK leaves the EU on 22 March, triggering a contest for the leadership of the Conservative party. Although there has been some suggestion she might hold out through the summer so that the contest takes place after the next Tory conference in October. |
| Another faction poised to be highly influential when any compromise faces a runoff with May’s deal will be the new One Nation group of Conservatives who favour a customs union over no deal, several of whom met May on Monday afternoon. | |
| As well as cabinet ministers such as Amber Rudd and David Gauke, key figures in the group include former education secretary Nicky Morgan, prisons minister Rory Stewart and George Freeman, ex-chair of the No 10 policy board. | |
| Stewart, one of the most passionate defenders of May’s Brexit deal, issued a stark warning on Monday about the damaging effects of a no-deal Brexit, saying it would be seen internationally as “a signal failure of sense, statesmanship and strategy”. | |
| Some Conservative MPs remain doubtful that the One Nation group will be prepared to act decisively enough to have any influence. | |
| “This oxymoronically named group don’t represent what either the bulk of remain voters or the bulk of leave voters want. I’m not sure which nation they mean – not this one,” one MP said. | |
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