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| Look past the May-Corbyn Brexit talks. There’s another solution | Look past the May-Corbyn Brexit talks. There’s another solution |
| (4 days later) | |
| The objections to Theresa May’s 11th-hour offer to work with Labour on Brexit are obvious. It goes without saying that this is not how the process should have ended but how it should have begun, the day after the referendum or, at the very least, the day after the June 2017 election wiped out May’s Commons majority. Instead, Brexit has been like one of those high-end artworks where the narrative runs backwards. Think of it as Brexit in the style of Harold Pinter’s Betrayal, to pick a play whose title the hard Brexiters might find bleakly resonant, in which first comes the triggering of article 50 and two years of negotiations with Brussels, followed by cross-party talks to find a parliamentary consensus – when it clearly should have been the other way around. | The objections to Theresa May’s 11th-hour offer to work with Labour on Brexit are obvious. It goes without saying that this is not how the process should have ended but how it should have begun, the day after the referendum or, at the very least, the day after the June 2017 election wiped out May’s Commons majority. Instead, Brexit has been like one of those high-end artworks where the narrative runs backwards. Think of it as Brexit in the style of Harold Pinter’s Betrayal, to pick a play whose title the hard Brexiters might find bleakly resonant, in which first comes the triggering of article 50 and two years of negotiations with Brussels, followed by cross-party talks to find a parliamentary consensus – when it clearly should have been the other way around. |
| Brexit: Junior minister resigns over May's 'grave error' in seeking deal with Corbyn – live news | Brexit: Junior minister resigns over May's 'grave error' in seeking deal with Corbyn – live news |
| Equally obvious is that if Brexiters are looking for someone to blame for this development, they need to look in the mirror. May is only compelled to seek Labour’s help in taking Britain out of the European Union because the Tory votes in the Commons were not there. Brexit was on offer, but the Brexiters repeatedly refused to vote for it (because it wasn’t Brexity enough for their tastes). They’re now crying betrayal, accusing May of making Jeremy Corbyn the de facto prime minister, but this situation is entirely on them. It’s their fault. | Equally obvious is that if Brexiters are looking for someone to blame for this development, they need to look in the mirror. May is only compelled to seek Labour’s help in taking Britain out of the European Union because the Tory votes in the Commons were not there. Brexit was on offer, but the Brexiters repeatedly refused to vote for it (because it wasn’t Brexity enough for their tastes). They’re now crying betrayal, accusing May of making Jeremy Corbyn the de facto prime minister, but this situation is entirely on them. It’s their fault. |
| The question now is: will this move work? Will May and Corbyn strike a grand bargain, agreeing a national unity Brexit? To which the answer is: don’t hold your breath. For some in Labour, that’s because they assume the worst of May and suspect this is no more than a cynical ruse to land the blame for Brexit’s failure on them. And yet one senior shadow cabinet minister told me this morning that May is acting in “good faith” and that the prime minister is “genuinely looking for a concessionary strategy”, albeit one born of necessity. | The question now is: will this move work? Will May and Corbyn strike a grand bargain, agreeing a national unity Brexit? To which the answer is: don’t hold your breath. For some in Labour, that’s because they assume the worst of May and suspect this is no more than a cynical ruse to land the blame for Brexit’s failure on them. And yet one senior shadow cabinet minister told me this morning that May is acting in “good faith” and that the prime minister is “genuinely looking for a concessionary strategy”, albeit one born of necessity. |
| Still, even that shadow minister doesn’t think this will lead to a May-Corbyn deal, not least because, in their view: “Jeremy is not capable of it.” Even without taking a position on the Labour leader’s skill set, there are good reasons to be sceptical. For one thing, just because May has opted for a change in strategy, it doesn’t mean Corbyn has done the same. His goal has always been for Brexit to happen, but not to be blamed for it. May has just invited him to become co-author of Brexit, with his fingerprints all over it. There is no reason why that should appeal to him. He is, after all, the leader of an overwhelmingly pro-remain party: its members will not look kindly on him acting as the midwife of Brexit. | Still, even that shadow minister doesn’t think this will lead to a May-Corbyn deal, not least because, in their view: “Jeremy is not capable of it.” Even without taking a position on the Labour leader’s skill set, there are good reasons to be sceptical. For one thing, just because May has opted for a change in strategy, it doesn’t mean Corbyn has done the same. His goal has always been for Brexit to happen, but not to be blamed for it. May has just invited him to become co-author of Brexit, with his fingerprints all over it. There is no reason why that should appeal to him. He is, after all, the leader of an overwhelmingly pro-remain party: its members will not look kindly on him acting as the midwife of Brexit. |
| What’s more, any concessions May might give are likely to be worthless. All the talk of protecting workers’ rights or a customs union or a close relationship with the single market are the terrain not of the legally binding withdrawal agreement, but of the non-binding, aspirational political declaration. May might cheerfully concede to Corbyn, only for those concessions to be overturned by her successor in Downing Street – or indeed by a future Conservative government armed with a Commons majority. In other words, May is inviting Corbyn to write her a blank cheque, one that could be cashed in future by a prime minister as yet unknown. | What’s more, any concessions May might give are likely to be worthless. All the talk of protecting workers’ rights or a customs union or a close relationship with the single market are the terrain not of the legally binding withdrawal agreement, but of the non-binding, aspirational political declaration. May might cheerfully concede to Corbyn, only for those concessions to be overturned by her successor in Downing Street – or indeed by a future Conservative government armed with a Commons majority. In other words, May is inviting Corbyn to write her a blank cheque, one that could be cashed in future by a prime minister as yet unknown. |
| European parliament elections take place across the UK and the rest of the EU, with any campaign likely to be dominated in the UK by smaller protest parties including Nigel Farage’s Brexit party and Ukip, as well as Change UK. | European parliament elections take place across the UK and the rest of the EU, with any campaign likely to be dominated in the UK by smaller protest parties including Nigel Farage’s Brexit party and Ukip, as well as Change UK. |
| Results of the European elections are declared from 10pm, with the Conservatives expecting massive losses. From the limited amount of polling that has been carried out so far, the Brexit party or Labour look like the probable winners. | Results of the European elections are declared from 10pm, with the Conservatives expecting massive losses. From the limited amount of polling that has been carried out so far, the Brexit party or Labour look like the probable winners. |
| Theresa May is planing to bring her withdrawal agreement back to to parliament for another vote. | |
| This is the crucial date past which May said she would not countenance the UK staying in the EU. May must have passed her withdrawal deal before this date in order avoid British MEPs taking up their seats. | This is the crucial date past which May said she would not countenance the UK staying in the EU. May must have passed her withdrawal deal before this date in order avoid British MEPs taking up their seats. |
| The Commons is expected to return from summer recess, bar any early recall to deal with a Brexit crisis. | The Commons is expected to return from summer recess, bar any early recall to deal with a Brexit crisis. |
| The Labour and Conservative party conferences are held on consecutive weeks. | The Labour and Conservative party conferences are held on consecutive weeks. |
| MPs return to parliament after the party conference season, 18 working days before the UK would be due to leave the EU. | MPs return to parliament after the party conference season, 18 working days before the UK would be due to leave the EU. |
| This is the last practical polling date on which a prime minister could hold a general election or second referendum – the final Thursday before the next meeting of the European council. | This is the last practical polling date on which a prime minister could hold a general election or second referendum – the final Thursday before the next meeting of the European council. |
| EU leaders meet for the final meeting of the European council before the UK’s extension is due to expire. | EU leaders meet for the final meeting of the European council before the UK’s extension is due to expire. |
| The six-month article 50 extension will expire. | The six-month article 50 extension will expire. |
| The next date on which Tory MPs can hold a confidence vote in Theresa May, if she remains at the helm. | The next date on which Tory MPs can hold a confidence vote in Theresa May, if she remains at the helm. |
| Rowena Mason | Rowena Mason |
| So let’s presume the May-Corbyn effort fails. That brings us to the second element in May’s Tuesday night statement, which got less attention but might be much more significant. She agreed that it would then be up to parliament to decide what to do next, and she would be bound by its decision. That could see the government take over the backbench process initiated by Oliver Letwin and Yvette Cooper, with a fresh series of indicative votes, perhaps tomorrow, maybe even determined by a transferable vote system that would see the least unpopular choice emerge as a winner. | So let’s presume the May-Corbyn effort fails. That brings us to the second element in May’s Tuesday night statement, which got less attention but might be much more significant. She agreed that it would then be up to parliament to decide what to do next, and she would be bound by its decision. That could see the government take over the backbench process initiated by Oliver Letwin and Yvette Cooper, with a fresh series of indicative votes, perhaps tomorrow, maybe even determined by a transferable vote system that would see the least unpopular choice emerge as a winner. |
| That could close off a no-deal crash-out as an option, which might at last push the hardcore Brexiters towards a compromise and support of May’s deal. But it also opens up other possibilities. One is of a softer Brexit, some variation of Norway, which might just get across the line. But another scenario is more intriguing. | That could close off a no-deal crash-out as an option, which might at last push the hardcore Brexiters towards a compromise and support of May’s deal. But it also opens up other possibilities. One is of a softer Brexit, some variation of Norway, which might just get across the line. But another scenario is more intriguing. |
| The opposition parties could say to May that there is no need for her to make any concessions. She need not dilute her deal at all. She can keep it exactly as it is and they will all vote for it – on one condition. She simply has to agree to put that deal to a confirmatory vote of the public. It’s the so-called Kyle-Wilson approach, named after two Labour backbenchers but backed by Margaret Beckett and Tom Watson and others. | The opposition parties could say to May that there is no need for her to make any concessions. She need not dilute her deal at all. She can keep it exactly as it is and they will all vote for it – on one condition. She simply has to agree to put that deal to a confirmatory vote of the public. It’s the so-called Kyle-Wilson approach, named after two Labour backbenchers but backed by Margaret Beckett and Tom Watson and others. |
| May’s bombshell means Little English revolution is over | Paul Mason | May’s bombshell means Little English revolution is over | Paul Mason |
| It has logic on its side. A referendum of May’s deal v remain would surely be a more legitimate exercise in the eyes of leave voters than a ballot pitting a softer Brexit against remain. But the politics seem to point in that direction too, given that both a May-Corbyn pact is unlikely and May has said she will give the casting vote to the Commons – a Commons that only failed to approve a confirmatory referendum by a handful of votes on Monday. “We’re heading for a confirmatory ballot, that’s where we’re heading,” says one senior Labour figure. Other opposition parties are making similar noises. | It has logic on its side. A referendum of May’s deal v remain would surely be a more legitimate exercise in the eyes of leave voters than a ballot pitting a softer Brexit against remain. But the politics seem to point in that direction too, given that both a May-Corbyn pact is unlikely and May has said she will give the casting vote to the Commons – a Commons that only failed to approve a confirmatory referendum by a handful of votes on Monday. “We’re heading for a confirmatory ballot, that’s where we’re heading,” says one senior Labour figure. Other opposition parties are making similar noises. |
| It’s late. Theresa May could reverse position yet again, tilting back to no deal rather than face a long extension – and the UK participation in European elections in May that would come with it. But for now, MPs have a chance – slim perhaps – to resolve this national crisis by letting the public break the deadlock. They should seize it. | It’s late. Theresa May could reverse position yet again, tilting back to no deal rather than face a long extension – and the UK participation in European elections in May that would come with it. But for now, MPs have a chance – slim perhaps – to resolve this national crisis by letting the public break the deadlock. They should seize it. |
| • Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist | • Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist |
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