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| Winning middle Australia: path to a Labor victory may run through Deakin | Winning middle Australia: path to a Labor victory may run through Deakin |
| (7 days later) | |
| Three hours after the federal election was called, Bill Shorten addressed the national media from the backyard of a house in Mitcham in the dead centre of the almost-marginal electorate of Deakin in eastern Melbourne. | Three hours after the federal election was called, Bill Shorten addressed the national media from the backyard of a house in Mitcham in the dead centre of the almost-marginal electorate of Deakin in eastern Melbourne. |
| It seemed an underwhelming place to launch a campaign that, if the polls hold true, could put Shorten in the Lodge. That, Shorten said, was the point. | It seemed an underwhelming place to launch a campaign that, if the polls hold true, could put Shorten in the Lodge. That, Shorten said, was the point. |
| Where better to make a case for setting aside personality politics, a game that would never favour a Shorten government, and lean into the boring bread-and-butter of policy than an electorate which is notably ordinary? | Where better to make a case for setting aside personality politics, a game that would never favour a Shorten government, and lean into the boring bread-and-butter of policy than an electorate which is notably ordinary? |
| Kooyong: climate change shakes up the election in Liberal Melbourne | Kooyong: climate change shakes up the election in Liberal Melbourne |
| This is suburbia as most Australians remember it. Free-standing brick veneer houses, two cars in the driveway, swing set out back. It is a recognisable stock image of suburban life: Neighbours is filmed in a cul-de-sac in nearby Vermont South. | This is suburbia as most Australians remember it. Free-standing brick veneer houses, two cars in the driveway, swing set out back. It is a recognisable stock image of suburban life: Neighbours is filmed in a cul-de-sac in nearby Vermont South. |
| If Labor wants to win middle Australia, it may as well start here. | If Labor wants to win middle Australia, it may as well start here. |
| Winning Deakin would be a rare feat for Labor. It has snatched the seat from the Coalition only twice in 82 years: in 1983, with the incoming Hawke government; and in 2007, with the Rudd landslide. | Winning Deakin would be a rare feat for Labor. It has snatched the seat from the Coalition only twice in 82 years: in 1983, with the incoming Hawke government; and in 2007, with the Rudd landslide. |
| Labor held on in 2010, but Michael Sukkar won the seat back for the Coalition in 2013. A redistribution last year increased his margin from 5.7% to 6.4%, although Sukkar says the post-redistribution figure is “rubbery”. | Labor held on in 2010, but Michael Sukkar won the seat back for the Coalition in 2013. A redistribution last year increased his margin from 5.7% to 6.4%, although Sukkar says the post-redistribution figure is “rubbery”. |
| It’s a buffer that’s easy to lose, difficult to gain. Constitutional lawyer Shireen Morris has been picked by Labor to close that gap. Greens candidate Sophia Sun and United Australia candidate Milton Wilde have also announced their run. | It’s a buffer that’s easy to lose, difficult to gain. Constitutional lawyer Shireen Morris has been picked by Labor to close that gap. Greens candidate Sophia Sun and United Australia candidate Milton Wilde have also announced their run. |
| “It’s always a battleground seat here in Victoria,” Sukkar tells Guardian Australia. “You know you have always got to earn your keep in the Deakin electorate.” | “It’s always a battleground seat here in Victoria,” Sukkar tells Guardian Australia. “You know you have always got to earn your keep in the Deakin electorate.” |
| At Forest Hill Chase shopping centre, in the south-eastern corner of the electorate, politics is a low priority. Those who named key concerns were focused on finances. For younger voters, it was house prices. | At Forest Hill Chase shopping centre, in the south-eastern corner of the electorate, politics is a low priority. Those who named key concerns were focused on finances. For younger voters, it was house prices. |
| Chloe Ebb lives in Forest Hill with her in-laws while she and her partner try to save for a house deposit. | Chloe Ebb lives in Forest Hill with her in-laws while she and her partner try to save for a house deposit. |
| “It’s still quite expensive and that’s with two decent incomes and savings,” she says. “I think this area is way out of our price range no matter what.” | “It’s still quite expensive and that’s with two decent incomes and savings,” she says. “I think this area is way out of our price range no matter what.” |
| Ebb hasn’t decided her vote but says she is fairly disillusioned with all options. | Ebb hasn’t decided her vote but says she is fairly disillusioned with all options. |
| “They are all going to say one thing and do another in government,” she says. | “They are all going to say one thing and do another in government,” she says. |
| The average price for a standalone house in Deakin is between $700,000 and $1m, and properties do not come on the market often. Unlike the fast-growing urban fringe, these middle-ring electorates attract lifetime residents. Most people who spoke to Guardian Australia had lived in the area for decades. | The average price for a standalone house in Deakin is between $700,000 and $1m, and properties do not come on the market often. Unlike the fast-growing urban fringe, these middle-ring electorates attract lifetime residents. Most people who spoke to Guardian Australia had lived in the area for decades. |
| State of play: interactive map of seat margins before the 2019 Australian election | State of play: interactive map of seat margins before the 2019 Australian election |
| One of those was Rob Anderson, a pensioner from Mitcham who says he usually votes Liberal. His concerns were crime, parking at the train station and Labor’s policy to reverse Howard-era changes that allowed retirees to claim excess franking credits. All three are key talking points for Sukkar. | One of those was Rob Anderson, a pensioner from Mitcham who says he usually votes Liberal. His concerns were crime, parking at the train station and Labor’s policy to reverse Howard-era changes that allowed retirees to claim excess franking credits. All three are key talking points for Sukkar. |
| Sukkar recently announced funding for multi-storey car parks at the Mitcham, Ringwood and Croydon train stations at a cost of $15m apiece, which works out at about $30,000 per parking space. It has drawn accusations of pork barrelling but served its purpose: it was the local issue voters in Deakin most commonly mentioned to Guardian Australia. | Sukkar recently announced funding for multi-storey car parks at the Mitcham, Ringwood and Croydon train stations at a cost of $15m apiece, which works out at about $30,000 per parking space. It has drawn accusations of pork barrelling but served its purpose: it was the local issue voters in Deakin most commonly mentioned to Guardian Australia. |
| “Michael Sukkar seems to be doing a fairly good job for the local community,” Anderson tells Guardian Australia. “I have never known a politician to be so active.” | “Michael Sukkar seems to be doing a fairly good job for the local community,” Anderson tells Guardian Australia. “I have never known a politician to be so active.” |
| At the Ringwood train station, Croydon man Russell Whitby says the franking credits issue might change his vote. He is not retired yet, but says he’s thinking ahead. | At the Ringwood train station, Croydon man Russell Whitby says the franking credits issue might change his vote. He is not retired yet, but says he’s thinking ahead. |
| “I usually say Labor,” he says. “But franking credits may be the one.” | “I usually say Labor,” he says. “But franking credits may be the one.” |
| Attempts by Labor to raise concerns about Sukkar’s role as a key backer of Peter Dutton in the leadership spill that ousted Malcolm Turnbull may be landing in some quarters, but were only independently mentioned to Guardian Australia by those whose choice was between Labor and the Greens. | Attempts by Labor to raise concerns about Sukkar’s role as a key backer of Peter Dutton in the leadership spill that ousted Malcolm Turnbull may be landing in some quarters, but were only independently mentioned to Guardian Australia by those whose choice was between Labor and the Greens. |
| I feel like a ham sandwich could do a better job than [the Coalition] | I feel like a ham sandwich could do a better job than [the Coalition] |
| “After the spill I wrote to him and said I thought that was pretty poor form, but it’s probably over now,” Anderson says. | “After the spill I wrote to him and said I thought that was pretty poor form, but it’s probably over now,” Anderson says. |
| Sukkar says that issue is in the past. | Sukkar says that issue is in the past. |
| “People don’t like political instability, there’s obviously no doubt about it, but where we are now I think people have really focused on the choice which is in front of them,” he says. | “People don’t like political instability, there’s obviously no doubt about it, but where we are now I think people have really focused on the choice which is in front of them,” he says. |
| Cate, who did not give her last name, usually votes Green but is considering Labor this time just to vote out the Coalition. “I feel like a ham sandwich could do a better job than them,” she says. | Cate, who did not give her last name, usually votes Green but is considering Labor this time just to vote out the Coalition. “I feel like a ham sandwich could do a better job than them,” she says. |
| She also wrote to Sukkar condemning him for his support of Dutton and lack of support for marriage equality. | She also wrote to Sukkar condemning him for his support of Dutton and lack of support for marriage equality. |
| Turnbull's rejection of an Indigenous voice to parliament is immoral and foolish | Shireen Morris | Turnbull's rejection of an Indigenous voice to parliament is immoral and foolish | Shireen Morris |
| “To his credit he is the only politician who has ever responded to an email that I sent,” she says. “It was a generic email that didn’t address any of my concerns, but at least he responded.” | “To his credit he is the only politician who has ever responded to an email that I sent,” she says. “It was a generic email that didn’t address any of my concerns, but at least he responded.” |
| A sticking point in willingness to support Labor is its policy on asylum seekers, which Cate says is inhumane. Shireen Morris describes Labor’s current policy as “balanced” and says “once it starts to move away from a balanced policy, yes, I would resist it”. | A sticking point in willingness to support Labor is its policy on asylum seekers, which Cate says is inhumane. Shireen Morris describes Labor’s current policy as “balanced” and says “once it starts to move away from a balanced policy, yes, I would resist it”. |
| A few streets away from Forest Hill Chase, in a cul-de-sac that could be mistaken for Ramsay Street, Morris is knocking on doors. She has been doing so for about seven months, ever since her preselection was announced, which is why the man at number two greets her like an old friend. They have spoken three times but he is still listed as undecided or, in the language of Labor volunteers armed with clipboards, “persuadable”. | A few streets away from Forest Hill Chase, in a cul-de-sac that could be mistaken for Ramsay Street, Morris is knocking on doors. She has been doing so for about seven months, ever since her preselection was announced, which is why the man at number two greets her like an old friend. They have spoken three times but he is still listed as undecided or, in the language of Labor volunteers armed with clipboards, “persuadable”. |
| There are apparently a lot of persuadables in Bayswater North, which was added in the redistribution. | There are apparently a lot of persuadables in Bayswater North, which was added in the redistribution. |
| Morris, 38, grew up in Ringwood and lived at home with her parents, who were both local doctors, until her mid-20s. She began her law degree at 28 and earned a PhD in constitutional law while working for Noel Pearson’s Cape York Institute on the issue of constitutional recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. It was that campaign, particularly Turnbull’s rejection of the Uluru Statement, that pushed her into party politics. | Morris, 38, grew up in Ringwood and lived at home with her parents, who were both local doctors, until her mid-20s. She began her law degree at 28 and earned a PhD in constitutional law while working for Noel Pearson’s Cape York Institute on the issue of constitutional recognition of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people. It was that campaign, particularly Turnbull’s rejection of the Uluru Statement, that pushed her into party politics. |
| “That’s when I kind of realised, after advocating from the outside of parliament for … six or seven years, [that] I do need to be inside parliament because clearly those are the people that have the power to make these massive decisions that shape the nation,” she says. | “That’s when I kind of realised, after advocating from the outside of parliament for … six or seven years, [that] I do need to be inside parliament because clearly those are the people that have the power to make these massive decisions that shape the nation,” she says. |
| “I was getting very disillusioned and disheartened by the kind of politics we were seeing in this country.” | “I was getting very disillusioned and disheartened by the kind of politics we were seeing in this country.” |
| Morris moved to Nunawading after being preselected and says she regularly bumps into people who were patients of her parents or went to the same primary school. As one of only two Indian-Australian children at Park Orchards primary school in the 1980s, she is readily recognisable. | Morris moved to Nunawading after being preselected and says she regularly bumps into people who were patients of her parents or went to the same primary school. As one of only two Indian-Australian children at Park Orchards primary school in the 1980s, she is readily recognisable. |
| Constitutional recognition is not a front-of-mind issue in Deakin, where the Indigenous population was 0.4% at last census, but climate change is. Morris says it is the issue most often raised with her, above health and education. | Constitutional recognition is not a front-of-mind issue in Deakin, where the Indigenous population was 0.4% at last census, but climate change is. Morris says it is the issue most often raised with her, above health and education. |
| “I think we’re in with a serious chance,” she says. “I think it’s going to be a tough battle ... But people talk to me every day about how annoyed they are with some of the behaviour in the Liberal government.” | “I think we’re in with a serious chance,” she says. “I think it’s going to be a tough battle ... But people talk to me every day about how annoyed they are with some of the behaviour in the Liberal government.” |
| Morris and Sun both attended a climate change forum of about 400 people in the first week of the campaign, as did Chisholm candidates Jennifer Yang, for Labor, and Luke Arthur, for the Greens. Sukkar and his counterpart in Chisholm, Gladys Liu, did not. | Morris and Sun both attended a climate change forum of about 400 people in the first week of the campaign, as did Chisholm candidates Jennifer Yang, for Labor, and Luke Arthur, for the Greens. Sukkar and his counterpart in Chisholm, Gladys Liu, did not. |
| Sukkar has stood by Liu, who has come under criticism for a campaign she ran in the 2016 election that highlighted LGBT issues. Both are from the conservative wing of the Liberal party. Sukkar opposed same-sex marriage, worked on a rival conservative bill, and walked out of the chamber when the vote was held. Deakin voted 65.7% yes for marriage equality in the postal survey. | Sukkar has stood by Liu, who has come under criticism for a campaign she ran in the 2016 election that highlighted LGBT issues. Both are from the conservative wing of the Liberal party. Sukkar opposed same-sex marriage, worked on a rival conservative bill, and walked out of the chamber when the vote was held. Deakin voted 65.7% yes for marriage equality in the postal survey. |
| Sukkar says the same-sex marriage issue, like his support for Dutton, is in the past. | Sukkar says the same-sex marriage issue, like his support for Dutton, is in the past. |
| “I was elected prior to that not supporting same-sex marriage and I was very open in my views,” he says. “I think those who are pleased with the change have moved on and are happy in a same-sex marriage environment.” | “I was elected prior to that not supporting same-sex marriage and I was very open in my views,” he says. “I think those who are pleased with the change have moved on and are happy in a same-sex marriage environment.” |
| He says climate change “hasn’t gone away as an issue” but is not raised with him as frequently as transport or the economy. | He says climate change “hasn’t gone away as an issue” but is not raised with him as frequently as transport or the economy. |
| Outside Eastland shopping centre in Ringwood, climate change is trumped by traffic. “The roads aren’t sufficient for the amount of people,” a woman named Gemma, who has lived in the area for 28 years but retains an Irish lilt, says. This will be the second election at which she is eligible to vote. | Outside Eastland shopping centre in Ringwood, climate change is trumped by traffic. “The roads aren’t sufficient for the amount of people,” a woman named Gemma, who has lived in the area for 28 years but retains an Irish lilt, says. This will be the second election at which she is eligible to vote. |
| “I think [climate change] is a good way to spend money,” she says. | “I think [climate change] is a good way to spend money,” she says. |
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