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Campaign catchup: Labor sells surplus amid fiscal Punch and Judy show Campaign catchup: Labor sells surplus amid fiscal Punch and Judy show
(2 months later)
In a nutshellIn a nutshell
Friday was costings day. Labor released its document indicating it would deliver bigger surpluses than the Coalition, and the Coalition said yeah nah, bah humbug, Labor are the pits. Yes, sadly, it was that sophisticated.Friday was costings day. Labor released its document indicating it would deliver bigger surpluses than the Coalition, and the Coalition said yeah nah, bah humbug, Labor are the pits. Yes, sadly, it was that sophisticated.
Piercing the Punch and Judy banality, Labor has produced costings for the policies it has unveiled in detail. The costings came minus the underlying assumptions. There was one notable omission. Labor has not costed the boost to Newstart it has been promising throughout the campaign, because it plans to hold a review before putting a dollar figure on the proposed increase.Piercing the Punch and Judy banality, Labor has produced costings for the policies it has unveiled in detail. The costings came minus the underlying assumptions. There was one notable omission. Labor has not costed the boost to Newstart it has been promising throughout the campaign, because it plans to hold a review before putting a dollar figure on the proposed increase.
It’s reasonable, of course, for any incoming government to hold a review before proceeding, and it’s absolutely true that you cannot, practically, cost a measure before making a decision about the size of the increase – but holding a review has also been a fig leaf allowing Labor to signal to progressive voters it will act on Newstart (we see providing a measure of justice for the most vulnerable as a necessity), but also not quantify the cost (which would trigger a tabloid merde storm).It’s reasonable, of course, for any incoming government to hold a review before proceeding, and it’s absolutely true that you cannot, practically, cost a measure before making a decision about the size of the increase – but holding a review has also been a fig leaf allowing Labor to signal to progressive voters it will act on Newstart (we see providing a measure of justice for the most vulnerable as a necessity), but also not quantify the cost (which would trigger a tabloid merde storm).
Not booking the cost is also helpful to Labor’s preferred “my surplus is better than your surplus” narrative, given a Newstart increase is likely to be pretty expensive. This fiscal soft-shoe shuffle has been going on since Labor’s national conference last December. The review was the fix Labor settled on when the left faction threatened to gather the numbers to pass a motion locking Labor into a Newstart increase, which would have required a transparent costing.Not booking the cost is also helpful to Labor’s preferred “my surplus is better than your surplus” narrative, given a Newstart increase is likely to be pretty expensive. This fiscal soft-shoe shuffle has been going on since Labor’s national conference last December. The review was the fix Labor settled on when the left faction threatened to gather the numbers to pass a motion locking Labor into a Newstart increase, which would have required a transparent costing.
While Chris Bowen and Jim Chalmers were in Canberra unfurling their costings document and Josh Frydenberg and Mathias Cormann were in Melbourne delivering the bah humbug, dial-L-for-loser component of proceedings, Bill Shorten was way north, in Cairns, because Labor has its fingers crossed that the potency of climate change in this contest could help it snatch the seat of Leichhardt from incumbent Liberal Warren Entsch, who is worried enough to be preferencing the Greens.While Chris Bowen and Jim Chalmers were in Canberra unfurling their costings document and Josh Frydenberg and Mathias Cormann were in Melbourne delivering the bah humbug, dial-L-for-loser component of proceedings, Bill Shorten was way north, in Cairns, because Labor has its fingers crossed that the potency of climate change in this contest could help it snatch the seat of Leichhardt from incumbent Liberal Warren Entsch, who is worried enough to be preferencing the Greens.
Scott Morrison was a bit further down the sunshine state, in coal country, flogging the opposite message. Morrison declared Labor “sneered” at the jobs of central Queenslanders. “I’m going to make decisions, as prime minister, that increase investment certainty, and that support jobs — not that sneers at the jobs that are created by important investments here in central Queensland.”Scott Morrison was a bit further down the sunshine state, in coal country, flogging the opposite message. Morrison declared Labor “sneered” at the jobs of central Queenslanders. “I’m going to make decisions, as prime minister, that increase investment certainty, and that support jobs — not that sneers at the jobs that are created by important investments here in central Queensland.”
Morrison said the Coalition “won’t hold this region back by putting on them a burden that comes with Labor’s 45% [emissions reduction] target, that will actually put at risk 35,000 jobs here in central Queensland”. Hopefully Entsch (and other Liberals having a tough time of it in inner city contests) had passed out the noise-cancelling headphones before the adjacent visit.Morrison said the Coalition “won’t hold this region back by putting on them a burden that comes with Labor’s 45% [emissions reduction] target, that will actually put at risk 35,000 jobs here in central Queensland”. Hopefully Entsch (and other Liberals having a tough time of it in inner city contests) had passed out the noise-cancelling headphones before the adjacent visit.
Elsewhere on the trailElsewhere on the trail
Anthony Albanese is still trying to make high-speed rail happen. It’s been on successive governments’ wishlists since the 1980s, but so far has got no further than feasibility studies. On Friday, Albo announced Labor would put $1bn on the table to begin securing the corridor for the Melbourne to Brisbane route. That’s on top of the promise to set up a High Speed Rail Authority which would be tasked with, among other things, working with the state and territory governments to get the land acquisitions happening. Predictably Alan Tudge tsked tsked at the idea, declaring Labor’s commitment “would not even get a train out of Melbourne’s CBD”. The Coalition has its own “fast rail” plan, which is not as fast as high-speed rail, but not as slow as we have now. Capiche? Chances are we’ll be talking about this at the next election too.Anthony Albanese is still trying to make high-speed rail happen. It’s been on successive governments’ wishlists since the 1980s, but so far has got no further than feasibility studies. On Friday, Albo announced Labor would put $1bn on the table to begin securing the corridor for the Melbourne to Brisbane route. That’s on top of the promise to set up a High Speed Rail Authority which would be tasked with, among other things, working with the state and territory governments to get the land acquisitions happening. Predictably Alan Tudge tsked tsked at the idea, declaring Labor’s commitment “would not even get a train out of Melbourne’s CBD”. The Coalition has its own “fast rail” plan, which is not as fast as high-speed rail, but not as slow as we have now. Capiche? Chances are we’ll be talking about this at the next election too.
The big pictureThe big picture
How big is the surplus?How big is the surplus?
Required readingRequired reading
The campaign is entering its last week and everyone who feels as though they have a stake in the game are stepping up their efforts – including the Australian Christian Lobby. Central Queensland will get a mining school under the Morrison government.The campaign is entering its last week and everyone who feels as though they have a stake in the game are stepping up their efforts – including the Australian Christian Lobby. Central Queensland will get a mining school under the Morrison government.
And the Conversation has taken a look at Wentworth, which, just nine or so months on from the byelection which gripped #auspol, has gone a little under the radar this time around.And the Conversation has taken a look at Wentworth, which, just nine or so months on from the byelection which gripped #auspol, has gone a little under the radar this time around.
Tweet of the dayTweet of the day
Always watching.Always watching.
Pretty much #auspol pic.twitter.com/LyBNjzlODHPretty much #auspol pic.twitter.com/LyBNjzlODH
What nextWhat next
Both parties are bound for Victoria. Bill Shorten, who turns 52 on Sunday, will be appearing on Insiders. The Liberal party launch that’s all about you is also on Sunday. That will set the tone for both parties as they begin their final seat blitz. Keep hydrated. The final sprint is before us.Both parties are bound for Victoria. Bill Shorten, who turns 52 on Sunday, will be appearing on Insiders. The Liberal party launch that’s all about you is also on Sunday. That will set the tone for both parties as they begin their final seat blitz. Keep hydrated. The final sprint is before us.
Australian election 2019Australian election 2019
Australian politicsAustralian politics
Labor partyLabor party
Welfare in Australia Welfare
CoalitionCoalition
Chris BowenChris Bowen
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