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| Euro election pollwatch: How are the parties faring? | Euro election pollwatch: How are the parties faring? |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| After a pause for the English and Northern Irish local elections, polling for the European Parliament elections is back up and running. | After a pause for the English and Northern Irish local elections, polling for the European Parliament elections is back up and running. |
| Each dot shows one poll result for one party. The trend lines are calculated as an average of the polls to date, with greater weight given to the most recent polls and to larger polls. | |
| The polls that have been published up to now can fairly neatly be divided into two groups: before and after the Brexit Party's campaign launch on 12 April. | The polls that have been published up to now can fairly neatly be divided into two groups: before and after the Brexit Party's campaign launch on 12 April. |
| Before then, Nigel Farage's new group and UKIP seemed to be splitting the pro-Brexit vote pretty evenly - allowing Labour to enjoy a clear lead overall. | Before then, Nigel Farage's new group and UKIP seemed to be splitting the pro-Brexit vote pretty evenly - allowing Labour to enjoy a clear lead overall. |
| Afterwards, the Brexit Party has risen to the top of the pile, mostly at the expense of UKIP. There have only been two polls since with another party (Labour) in the lead. | Afterwards, the Brexit Party has risen to the top of the pile, mostly at the expense of UKIP. There have only been two polls since with another party (Labour) in the lead. |
| As with all polls, it's important to remember that they are subject to error. And that can be particularly true when there are new parties in the frame. | As with all polls, it's important to remember that they are subject to error. And that can be particularly true when there are new parties in the frame. |
| Historic Conservative low? | Historic Conservative low? |
| Prospects for the Conservatives look bleak, according to the polls so far. They've been bumping around in the low to-mid teens. That would be by a distance the lowest share of the vote ever for the party in a national election. | Prospects for the Conservatives look bleak, according to the polls so far. They've been bumping around in the low to-mid teens. That would be by a distance the lowest share of the vote ever for the party in a national election. |
| Labour are faring better, although considerably below where they would want to be. A score in the mid-20s would mean little change since 2014 when they were runners-up to UKIP. | Labour are faring better, although considerably below where they would want to be. A score in the mid-20s would mean little change since 2014 when they were runners-up to UKIP. |
| Anti-Brexit parties | Anti-Brexit parties |
| The creation of Change UK - The Independent Group, adds to an already crowded field for pro-EU, anti-Brexit parties. | The creation of Change UK - The Independent Group, adds to an already crowded field for pro-EU, anti-Brexit parties. |
| They are fighting for votes with the Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru. | They are fighting for votes with the Liberal Democrats, Greens, SNP and Plaid Cymru. |
| In Scotland, the SNP are on course to dominate. But in other parts of the UK, the divisions could be costly. | In Scotland, the SNP are on course to dominate. But in other parts of the UK, the divisions could be costly. |
| European elections in Britain use a form of proportional representation, but on a regional basis. Most of the regions have too few seats to guarantee a fully proportional outcome. | European elections in Britain use a form of proportional representation, but on a regional basis. Most of the regions have too few seats to guarantee a fully proportional outcome. |
| It's quite easy for a party to get a decent number of votes in a region but fail to win a seat. In 2014, for example, 160,000 votes (10.7%) was not enough for the Liberal Democrats in the South West. | It's quite easy for a party to get a decent number of votes in a region but fail to win a seat. In 2014, for example, 160,000 votes (10.7%) was not enough for the Liberal Democrats in the South West. |
| If the final result this time is close to what the polls have been suggesting, the anti-Brexit parties could end up missing out in several regions. | If the final result this time is close to what the polls have been suggesting, the anti-Brexit parties could end up missing out in several regions. |
| However, in the latest to be published, it perhaps looks as though in England the Lib Dems are emerging as the strongest of them - possibly receiving a boost after their very strong showing in the local elections. | However, in the latest to be published, it perhaps looks as though in England the Lib Dems are emerging as the strongest of them - possibly receiving a boost after their very strong showing in the local elections. |