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2019 Australia election: Shock win for coalition 'very likely' 2019 Australia election: Shock win for coalition 'very likely'
(32 minutes later)
Australia's governing Liberal coalition appears set to defy predictions by winning the federal election, the country's national broadcaster says.Australia's governing Liberal coalition appears set to defy predictions by winning the federal election, the country's national broadcaster says.
But with nearly half of votes yet to be counted, it is unclear whether centre-right Liberal PM Scott Morrison will be able to form a majority government.But with nearly half of votes yet to be counted, it is unclear whether centre-right Liberal PM Scott Morrison will be able to form a majority government.
Exit polls had suggested a narrow victory for the opposition Labor Party for the first time in six years.Exit polls had suggested a narrow victory for the opposition Labor Party for the first time in six years.
The final result of the election may not be known for some hours.The final result of the election may not be known for some hours.
However a Liberal coalition win would confound most pre-election opinion polling which had pointed to a narrow victory for Labor and its leader, Bill Shorten. However, a Liberal coalition win would confound most pre-election opinion polling which had pointed to a narrow victory for Labor and its leader, Bill Shorten.
Leading election analyst Antony Green - of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation - said: "At this stage, it is very hard to see anything other than the Coalition staying in government, but we don't know whether that is a majority or minority government."Leading election analyst Antony Green - of the Australian Broadcasting Corporation - said: "At this stage, it is very hard to see anything other than the Coalition staying in government, but we don't know whether that is a majority or minority government."
Australia has mandatory voting and a record 16.4 million voters enrolled for the election.Australia has mandatory voting and a record 16.4 million voters enrolled for the election.
Former Liberal Prime Minister Tony Abbott conceded he had lost his seat in Warringah to former Olympic skier Zali Steggall. Mr Morrison's second-in-command, Treasurer Josh Frydenberg, fought off a strong challenge for his seat in Melbourne.
"I can't say that it doesn't hurt to lose," he told supporters, but added: "I'd rather be a loser than a quitter." He attributed the Coalition's predicted victory to "the economic choice" made by voters.
In Sydney, Liberal supporter Greg Napper summed up the mood for Reuters news agency: "I thought I was coming to a wake, to be quite honest with you. This is a party - the results are encouraging."
Why is the election important?Why is the election important?
Saturday's vote is the first general election since political infighting ousted Australia's fourth leader in a decade.Saturday's vote is the first general election since political infighting ousted Australia's fourth leader in a decade.
Prime Minister Scott Morrison says he has united his conservative government in the nine months since he replaced Malcolm Turnbull. Mr Morrison says he has united his conservative government in the nine months since he replaced Malcolm Turnbull.
But Mr Shorten pressed his case with stark policy alternatives, promising to cut tax breaks for the wealthy and to lower greenhouse gas emissions.But Mr Shorten pressed his case with stark policy alternatives, promising to cut tax breaks for the wealthy and to lower greenhouse gas emissions.
"I think people have become afraid after a very negative campaign," Labor supporter Julie Nelson told Reuters at the party's Melbourne election night function. "They managed to convince people they should be afraid of change."
Australia holds elections every three years, but no prime minister has succeeded in serving a full term since 2007.Australia holds elections every three years, but no prime minister has succeeded in serving a full term since 2007.
Former Liberal Prime Minister Tony Abbott conceded he had lost his seat in Warringah to former Olympic skier Zali Steggall.
"I can't say that it doesn't hurt to lose," he told supporters, but added: "I'd rather be a loser than a quitter."
What have been the key issues?What have been the key issues?
Surveys showed that the economy, cost of living, environment and health were central concerns for voters.Surveys showed that the economy, cost of living, environment and health were central concerns for voters.
It has been in many ways a generational issue election, experts say, with younger people in particular voicing frustration about climate change and a lack of affordable housing.It has been in many ways a generational issue election, experts say, with younger people in particular voicing frustration about climate change and a lack of affordable housing.
Others have argued that older Australians would be most affected by tax reform proposals that have dominated much of the campaign.Others have argued that older Australians would be most affected by tax reform proposals that have dominated much of the campaign.
The vote follows fierce debates about the rolling leadership turmoil, formal recognition of indigenous Australians, and the treatment of female MPs in parliament.The vote follows fierce debates about the rolling leadership turmoil, formal recognition of indigenous Australians, and the treatment of female MPs in parliament.
What did the contenders campaign for?What did the contenders campaign for?
As the Liberal-National government seeks its third term, Mr Morrison says he has healed bitter internal divisions that brought down Mr Turnbull.As the Liberal-National government seeks its third term, Mr Morrison says he has healed bitter internal divisions that brought down Mr Turnbull.
He has campaigned primarily on economic issues, often doing so alone while painting the election as a choice between himself and Mr Shorten.He has campaigned primarily on economic issues, often doing so alone while painting the election as a choice between himself and Mr Shorten.
Mr Shorten, who has led Labor for six years, has instead emphasised his team's stability and policies on climate change, cost of living and health.Mr Shorten, who has led Labor for six years, has instead emphasised his team's stability and policies on climate change, cost of living and health.
Also vying for support are minor parties including the Greens, One Nation and the United Australia Party, as well as a raft of independents.Also vying for support are minor parties including the Greens, One Nation and the United Australia Party, as well as a raft of independents.
Did the quiet Australians swing it?Did the quiet Australians swing it?
By Phil Mercer, BBC News, SydneyBy Phil Mercer, BBC News, Sydney
Have Scott Morrison's "quiet Australians" delivered this most unexpected result?Have Scott Morrison's "quiet Australians" delivered this most unexpected result?
They are the legions of undecided voters who are, according to the prime minister, too busy with life to engage in politics outside of election campaigns and are, by choice, oblivious to the mud-slinging and partisanship of modern politics.They are the legions of undecided voters who are, according to the prime minister, too busy with life to engage in politics outside of election campaigns and are, by choice, oblivious to the mud-slinging and partisanship of modern politics.
"But they turn up every three years at elections and they take a good, close look at what the options are," Mr Morrison said previously."But they turn up every three years at elections and they take a good, close look at what the options are," Mr Morrison said previously.
A strong performance over five weeks by Australia's first Pentecostal prime minister could well have swayed the uncommitted to hand him another term in either majority or minority government.A strong performance over five weeks by Australia's first Pentecostal prime minister could well have swayed the uncommitted to hand him another term in either majority or minority government.
How did the vote work?How did the vote work?
Australian elections always take place on Saturdays. This time about 7,000 polling stations were set up across the nation, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) said.Australian elections always take place on Saturdays. This time about 7,000 polling stations were set up across the nation, the Australian Electoral Commission (AEC) said.
But people could vote early at pre-polling stations, and a record number - more than four million people - elected to do so in 2019.But people could vote early at pre-polling stations, and a record number - more than four million people - elected to do so in 2019.
Because voting is compulsory, anyone aged over 18 faces a A$20 (£11; $14) fine for not taking part.Because voting is compulsory, anyone aged over 18 faces a A$20 (£11; $14) fine for not taking part.
At the last election, 95% of Australians voted - a much higher proportion than the most recent US (55%) and UK (69%) polls.At the last election, 95% of Australians voted - a much higher proportion than the most recent US (55%) and UK (69%) polls.
If you have a question about the Australian election you can send it to us via the form below.If you have a question about the Australian election you can send it to us via the form below.