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On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Post-Traumatic Election Disorder On Politics With Lisa Lerer: Post-Traumatic Election Disorder
(about 16 hours later)
Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.Hi. Welcome to On Politics, your guide to the day in national politics. I’m Lisa Lerer, your host.
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Sometimes when I’m out on the campaign trail, I get the feeling that the entire Democratic Party is suffering from a very acute case of PTED — post-traumatic election disorder.Sometimes when I’m out on the campaign trail, I get the feeling that the entire Democratic Party is suffering from a very acute case of PTED — post-traumatic election disorder.
So much of the way primary voters think about the 2020 race is rooted in lingering disappointment about how 2016 turned out.So much of the way primary voters think about the 2020 race is rooted in lingering disappointment about how 2016 turned out.
Those who think sexism defeated Hillary Clinton say they worry about voting for another woman. Those who believe the loss hinged on white men without college degrees say they are looking for someone who can perform in the Rust Belt. And those who blame Mrs. Clinton’s establishment credentials want a Washington outsider.Those who think sexism defeated Hillary Clinton say they worry about voting for another woman. Those who believe the loss hinged on white men without college degrees say they are looking for someone who can perform in the Rust Belt. And those who blame Mrs. Clinton’s establishment credentials want a Washington outsider.
Now, the preliminary findings of an interesting study by two political scientists at the University of Denver are shedding some light on how the political past may influence the way Democratic primary voters think about the future.Now, the preliminary findings of an interesting study by two political scientists at the University of Denver are shedding some light on how the political past may influence the way Democratic primary voters think about the future.
The researchers, Pavielle Haines and Seth Masket, surveyed 845 white voters who generally consider themselves Democrats. Half were shown a fictitious article from The New York Times (actual fake news!) that said Democrats had lost the 2016 election and failed to take back control of the Senate in 2018 because the party “focused too much on identity politics.” Participants then assessed the profiles of 20 generic candidates, who varied by gender, race, ideology and top policy issues.The researchers, Pavielle Haines and Seth Masket, surveyed 845 white voters who generally consider themselves Democrats. Half were shown a fictitious article from The New York Times (actual fake news!) that said Democrats had lost the 2016 election and failed to take back control of the Senate in 2018 because the party “focused too much on identity politics.” Participants then assessed the profiles of 20 generic candidates, who varied by gender, race, ideology and top policy issues.
The idea was to assess the impact of a dominant narrative about electability that emerged in the months following the 2016 race: that Democrats lost because they overemphasized issues of gender, race and sexual politics.The idea was to assess the impact of a dominant narrative about electability that emerged in the months following the 2016 race: that Democrats lost because they overemphasized issues of gender, race and sexual politics.
The study’s conclusions echo an idea I’ve heard from voters in early primary states: Introducing a postelection theory of electability — even if the current contest bears little resemblance to the previous election — can prompt voters to reassess their candidate preferences. That is particularly true when it comes to female candidates and voters, the study suggests.The study’s conclusions echo an idea I’ve heard from voters in early primary states: Introducing a postelection theory of electability — even if the current contest bears little resemblance to the previous election — can prompt voters to reassess their candidate preferences. That is particularly true when it comes to female candidates and voters, the study suggests.
Women who were shown the fake article were more than twice as likely to blame identity politics for the Democrats’ losses. They were nearly 50 percent less likely to pick a female candidate in 2020 and more likely to prefer an “economically oriented candidate” over one focused on goals like reducing racial discrimination in criminal sentencing, ensuring fairer prison sentences for nonviolent criminals or addressing discrimination in the workplace.Women who were shown the fake article were more than twice as likely to blame identity politics for the Democrats’ losses. They were nearly 50 percent less likely to pick a female candidate in 2020 and more likely to prefer an “economically oriented candidate” over one focused on goals like reducing racial discrimination in criminal sentencing, ensuring fairer prison sentences for nonviolent criminals or addressing discrimination in the workplace.
Conversely, reading the identity politics article had little effect on men, who were about as likely to believe the identity politics explanation for Mrs. Clinton’s defeat whether they saw the article or not.Conversely, reading the identity politics article had little effect on men, who were about as likely to believe the identity politics explanation for Mrs. Clinton’s defeat whether they saw the article or not.
So what should we make of this experiment? Well, it suggests that the way 2016 is explained by the news media, candidates and strategists influences how voters think about 2020 — an idea that may explain some of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s early strength in the field, given how intensely he has stressed his ability to win back working-class white voters who deserted the party in 2016.So what should we make of this experiment? Well, it suggests that the way 2016 is explained by the news media, candidates and strategists influences how voters think about 2020 — an idea that may explain some of former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s early strength in the field, given how intensely he has stressed his ability to win back working-class white voters who deserted the party in 2016.
Perhaps even more intriguing, though, is the fact that the postgame narrative seems to affect male and female voters differently. For male voters, the authors conclude, the identity politics idea has little influence on their original preferences. In fact, it may just be an affirmation of the kind of candidate they already want.Perhaps even more intriguing, though, is the fact that the postgame narrative seems to affect male and female voters differently. For male voters, the authors conclude, the identity politics idea has little influence on their original preferences. In fact, it may just be an affirmation of the kind of candidate they already want.
Women face a more complicated choice. If they embrace the identity politics explanation and seek a more “electable” candidate, they may yield their preference for a female candidate to their support for the Democratic Party. If they ignore it and pick their top-choice candidate, they may feel they are risking losing the election altogether.Women face a more complicated choice. If they embrace the identity politics explanation and seek a more “electable” candidate, they may yield their preference for a female candidate to their support for the Democratic Party. If they ignore it and pick their top-choice candidate, they may feel they are risking losing the election altogether.
As the authors put it, “The identity politics loss narrative places the burden of strategic compromise squarely on women shoulders, while largely sparing men.”As the authors put it, “The identity politics loss narrative places the burden of strategic compromise squarely on women shoulders, while largely sparing men.”
It’s unclear how widespread this dynamic may be across the party. By surveying only white voters, the researchers selected a group that is not wholly representative of the diverse Democratic base. (Nonwhite voters were excluded from the sample, the authors wrote, because “it is likely that they would react differently to an identity politics loss narrative than whites.”)It’s unclear how widespread this dynamic may be across the party. By surveying only white voters, the researchers selected a group that is not wholly representative of the diverse Democratic base. (Nonwhite voters were excluded from the sample, the authors wrote, because “it is likely that they would react differently to an identity politics loss narrative than whites.”)
And, of course, the current 23-person Democratic primary bears little resemblance to the matchup between Mrs. Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders in 2016. There is also no reason to expect that the general election that follows will mirror the fight from four years ago.And, of course, the current 23-person Democratic primary bears little resemblance to the matchup between Mrs. Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders in 2016. There is also no reason to expect that the general election that follows will mirror the fight from four years ago.
But regardless of the changed political dynamics, it’s clear that when voters listen to the 2020 candidates, at least some of them are not just thinking about the future — they are also considering the past.But regardless of the changed political dynamics, it’s clear that when voters listen to the 2020 candidates, at least some of them are not just thinking about the future — they are also considering the past.
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We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.We want to hear from our readers. Have a question? We’ll try to answer it. Have a comment? We’re all ears. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.
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Joseph R. Biden Jr. has a new enemy, and his campaign seems thrilled to talk about it.Joseph R. Biden Jr. has a new enemy, and his campaign seems thrilled to talk about it.
On Wednesday, North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency, the mouthpiece of Kim Jong-un’s government, suggested that Mr. Biden was “a fool of low I.Q.”On Wednesday, North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency, the mouthpiece of Kim Jong-un’s government, suggested that Mr. Biden was “a fool of low I.Q.”
It’s an insult that echoes a jab President Trump has deployed toward everyone from Robert De Niro (“a very Low IQ individual”) to Representative Maxine Waters of California (“an extraordinarily low IQ person”).It’s an insult that echoes a jab President Trump has deployed toward everyone from Robert De Niro (“a very Low IQ individual”) to Representative Maxine Waters of California (“an extraordinarily low IQ person”).
To the Biden campaign, it was something of a gift.To the Biden campaign, it was something of a gift.
“Given Vice President Biden’s record of standing up for American values and interests, it’s no surprise that North Korea would prefer that Donald Trump remain in the White House,” said Andrew Bates, a spokesman for Mr. Biden’s campaign, in a statement circulated to reporters.“Given Vice President Biden’s record of standing up for American values and interests, it’s no surprise that North Korea would prefer that Donald Trump remain in the White House,” said Andrew Bates, a spokesman for Mr. Biden’s campaign, in a statement circulated to reporters.
Mr. Biden, who is leading the Democratic field in many polls, is working to keep voters focused on how he would fare in a general election matchup against Mr. Trump — glossing over all of the other candidates he must first defeat in the crowded presidential primary, where he faces questions over his progressive credentials.Mr. Biden, who is leading the Democratic field in many polls, is working to keep voters focused on how he would fare in a general election matchup against Mr. Trump — glossing over all of the other candidates he must first defeat in the crowded presidential primary, where he faces questions over his progressive credentials.
The attack from North Korea offered a moment for Mr. Biden, a former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, to attempt another sharp contrast with Mr. Trump on a high-level issue.The attack from North Korea offered a moment for Mr. Biden, a former chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, to attempt another sharp contrast with Mr. Trump on a high-level issue.
Many of the president’s supporters hated the foreign policy of the Obama administration and say Mr. Trump’s dealings on the world stage live up to his campaign slogan of putting “America First.”Many of the president’s supporters hated the foreign policy of the Obama administration and say Mr. Trump’s dealings on the world stage live up to his campaign slogan of putting “America First.”
But on the campaign trail, Mr. Biden has been critical of Mr. Trump’s approach to strongmen like Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Mr. Kim. Just last week, Viktor Orban, Hungary’s authoritarian prime minister, visited the White House, where Mr. Trump called him “highly respected.”But on the campaign trail, Mr. Biden has been critical of Mr. Trump’s approach to strongmen like Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and Mr. Kim. Just last week, Viktor Orban, Hungary’s authoritarian prime minister, visited the White House, where Mr. Trump called him “highly respected.”
The Biden campaign saw the attack from the North Korean outlet as another opportunity to amplify Mr. Biden’s message.The Biden campaign saw the attack from the North Korean outlet as another opportunity to amplify Mr. Biden’s message.
“As Vice President Biden said in Philadelphia, Donald Trump embraces dictators and tyrants like Putin and Kim Jong-un while alienating our closest allies,” Mr. Bates said. “That is antithetical to who we are and it has to change.”“As Vice President Biden said in Philadelphia, Donald Trump embraces dictators and tyrants like Putin and Kim Jong-un while alienating our closest allies,” Mr. Bates said. “That is antithetical to who we are and it has to change.”
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• Six of the Democratic candidates want to make the leap from the House of Representatives to the White House. But can you name the last time a House member was elected president?• Six of the Democratic candidates want to make the leap from the House of Representatives to the White House. But can you name the last time a House member was elected president?
• In New York, a subway saboteur appears to be pulling emergency brakes on dozens of trains, causing delays all over the system since January.• In New York, a subway saboteur appears to be pulling emergency brakes on dozens of trains, causing delays all over the system since January.
• “You no longer leave your heart in San Francisco. The city breaks it.” The Washington Post mourns the transformation that technology and wealth have brought to San Francisco.• “You no longer leave your heart in San Francisco. The city breaks it.” The Washington Post mourns the transformation that technology and wealth have brought to San Francisco.
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Senator Elizabeth Warren: She has a plan … to fix your love life?!Senator Elizabeth Warren: She has a plan … to fix your love life?!
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Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world.Thanks for reading. Politics is more than what goes on inside the White House. On Politics brings you the people, issues and ideas reshaping our world.
Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.Is there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com.