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| Tory leadership: Who gets to choose the UK's next prime minister? | Tory leadership: Who gets to choose the UK's next prime minister? |
| (about 7 hours later) | |
| With Theresa May finally on her way out of Downing Street, a Tory leadership contest that has been bubbling under for months is now starting. | With Theresa May finally on her way out of Downing Street, a Tory leadership contest that has been bubbling under for months is now starting. |
| It's a two-stage process. The first sees votes among Conservative MPs designed to whittle the contenders down to just two front-runners. The second stage sees the party's grassroots members choose between them in a postal ballot. | |
| In other words, it is members of the public - those who pay £25 a year to join the Conservative Party - who get the final say on who the next prime minister is. There will not be a general election because the party is already in power. | In other words, it is members of the public - those who pay £25 a year to join the Conservative Party - who get the final say on who the next prime minister is. There will not be a general election because the party is already in power. |
| So, who are its members and what do they think on key issues, not least of course Brexit? | So, who are its members and what do they think on key issues, not least of course Brexit? |
| We don't know exactly how many Conservative Party members there are because - unlike the UK's other parties - the Conservatives don't regularly release the figures. | We don't know exactly how many Conservative Party members there are because - unlike the UK's other parties - the Conservatives don't regularly release the figures. |
| The last time they did so was back in March 2018, when they put the figure at 124,000. | The last time they did so was back in March 2018, when they put the figure at 124,000. |
| That's larger than some of the more pessimistic guesstimates, but way down on the peak of nearly three million that the party boasted in the early 1950s. | That's larger than some of the more pessimistic guesstimates, but way down on the peak of nearly three million that the party boasted in the early 1950s. |
| Membership plunged after that before levelling off at around one million in the 1970s and 1980s, since when it has been dropping almost inexorably. | Membership plunged after that before levelling off at around one million in the 1970s and 1980s, since when it has been dropping almost inexorably. |
| One thing we can be sure of, however, is that the Tories have far fewer members than the Labour Party. | One thing we can be sure of, however, is that the Tories have far fewer members than the Labour Party. |
| Even if we assume that Labour's membership has fallen from the late 2017 peak of more than 550,000, it still has a huge advantage over the Conservatives when it comes to campaigning on the ground. | Even if we assume that Labour's membership has fallen from the late 2017 peak of more than 550,000, it still has a huge advantage over the Conservatives when it comes to campaigning on the ground. |
| More like this | More like this |
| Right now, however, none of that matters as much as the fact that those 100,000 or so rank-and-file members of the Conservative Party have a crucial role. | Right now, however, none of that matters as much as the fact that those 100,000 or so rank-and-file members of the Conservative Party have a crucial role. |
| They are going to be choosing the next prime minister of a country of over 65 million people - something which has never happened before. | They are going to be choosing the next prime minister of a country of over 65 million people - something which has never happened before. |
| Most members of most parties in the UK are pretty middle-class. | Most members of most parties in the UK are pretty middle-class. |
| But Conservative Party members are the most middle-class of all: some 86% of them fall into the ABC1 category used by market researchers to describe the top social grade. | But Conservative Party members are the most middle-class of all: some 86% of them fall into the ABC1 category used by market researchers to describe the top social grade. |
| Around a quarter of them are, or were, self-employed and nearly half of them work, or used to, in the private sector. | Around a quarter of them are, or were, self-employed and nearly half of them work, or used to, in the private sector. |
| Nearly four out of 10 put their annual income at over £30,000, and one in 20 put it at over £100,000. As such, Tory members are considerably better-off than most voters and, indeed, the members of other parties. | Nearly four out of 10 put their annual income at over £30,000, and one in 20 put it at over £100,000. As such, Tory members are considerably better-off than most voters and, indeed, the members of other parties. |
| On the other hand, the fact that 97% of Conservative Party members are white doesn't do much to distinguish them from their counterparts in other parties. | On the other hand, the fact that 97% of Conservative Party members are white doesn't do much to distinguish them from their counterparts in other parties. |
| It does inevitably mean, however, that ethnic minorities, who make up well over 10% of British people, are heavily under-represented in the Tory rank and file. | It does inevitably mean, however, that ethnic minorities, who make up well over 10% of British people, are heavily under-represented in the Tory rank and file. |
| So, too, are women. Other parties - notably Labour and the Greens, but also the SNP - now come close to gender balance, but seven out of 10 Conservative members are male. | So, too, are women. Other parties - notably Labour and the Greens, but also the SNP - now come close to gender balance, but seven out of 10 Conservative members are male. |
| Tory members are also older than the members of most other parties. True, their average age may "only" be 57, but this disguises the fact that four out of 10 are over 65. | Tory members are also older than the members of most other parties. True, their average age may "only" be 57, but this disguises the fact that four out of 10 are over 65. |
| They are concentrated in the southern half of the country. Nearly 60% of Tory members live in Eastern England, London, the South East and the South West. | They are concentrated in the southern half of the country. Nearly 60% of Tory members live in Eastern England, London, the South East and the South West. |
| So much for demography and geography. What about ideology? | So much for demography and geography. What about ideology? |
| Well, not surprisingly, Tory Party members are more right-wing than the population as a whole. | Well, not surprisingly, Tory Party members are more right-wing than the population as a whole. |
| On a scale where zero represents very left-wing and 10 very right-wing, the average voter places themselves at the centre point. The average Conservative Party member places themselves at 7.6. | On a scale where zero represents very left-wing and 10 very right-wing, the average voter places themselves at the centre point. The average Conservative Party member places themselves at 7.6. |
| Certainly, grassroots Tories are socially conservative. | Certainly, grassroots Tories are socially conservative. |
| Three quarters of them believe, for instance, that young people today don't have enough respect for traditional values. Nearly six out of 10 support the death penalty. | Three quarters of them believe, for instance, that young people today don't have enough respect for traditional values. Nearly six out of 10 support the death penalty. |
| They are also conventionally right-wing on some aspects of economic policy. | They are also conventionally right-wing on some aspects of economic policy. |
| For example, only 15% of them believe that government should redistribute income from the better-off to those who are less well-off. | For example, only 15% of them believe that government should redistribute income from the better-off to those who are less well-off. |
| But on other issues they hold views that may be more unexpected. | But on other issues they hold views that may be more unexpected. |
| A third of Tory rank-and-file members believe that ordinary working people do not get their fair share of the nation's wealth and that there is one law for the rich and one for the poor. | A third of Tory rank-and-file members believe that ordinary working people do not get their fair share of the nation's wealth and that there is one law for the rich and one for the poor. |
| About half believe that big business takes advantage of ordinary people. | About half believe that big business takes advantage of ordinary people. |
| Interestingly, they have also cooled on austerity. In the summer of 2015, some 55% said government spending cuts hadn't gone far enough, but two years later that had fallen to 28%. | Interestingly, they have also cooled on austerity. In the summer of 2015, some 55% said government spending cuts hadn't gone far enough, but two years later that had fallen to 28%. |
| What Tory members haven't cooled on, however, is Brexit. | What Tory members haven't cooled on, however, is Brexit. |
| Indeed, since we started tracking them in 2015, they've hardened their position. | Indeed, since we started tracking them in 2015, they've hardened their position. |
| It is clear that they are not supporters of the deal negotiated by their outgoing leader. | It is clear that they are not supporters of the deal negotiated by their outgoing leader. |
| In fact, it is now the case that fully two-thirds of them back a no-deal Brexit - an outcome supported by only a quarter of voters as a whole. | In fact, it is now the case that fully two-thirds of them back a no-deal Brexit - an outcome supported by only a quarter of voters as a whole. |
| Nor are they in the least bit keen on the idea of letting the public have another say on the UK's EU membership. | Nor are they in the least bit keen on the idea of letting the public have another say on the UK's EU membership. |
| Some 84% of them oppose the idea of a new referendum on the issue. | Some 84% of them oppose the idea of a new referendum on the issue. |
| In short, the grassroots aren't simply sceptical on Europe; they can't wait to leave, whatever that might take. | In short, the grassroots aren't simply sceptical on Europe; they can't wait to leave, whatever that might take. |
| This, then, is the Conservative Party electorate. | This, then, is the Conservative Party electorate. |
| And those MPs hoping to succeed Mrs May will need to pitch their promises accordingly. | And those MPs hoping to succeed Mrs May will need to pitch their promises accordingly. |
| About this piece | About this piece |
| This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from experts working for an outside organisation. | This analysis piece was commissioned by the BBC from experts working for an outside organisation. |
| Tim Bale is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London. | Tim Bale is Professor of Politics at Queen Mary University of London. |
| Edited by Duncan Walker | Edited by Duncan Walker |