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| Fact-Checking Bernie Sanders on the Campaign Trail | Fact-Checking Bernie Sanders on the Campaign Trail |
| (3 days later) | |
| Senator Bernie Sanders, second only to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in the polls, is seeking to build on the momentum from his 2016 presidential run and shore up support among the left. | Senator Bernie Sanders, second only to former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. in the polls, is seeking to build on the momentum from his 2016 presidential run and shore up support among the left. |
| On the campaign trail, Mr. Sanders often reminds rallygoers that many positions popular among Democratic candidates today were viewed as unorthodox when he first ran on them in 2016. And as he looks to the general election, Mr. Sanders also frequently labels President Trump as a liar, racist and sexist while making the case that Mr. Trump has broken promises about protecting the social safety net and health care. | On the campaign trail, Mr. Sanders often reminds rallygoers that many positions popular among Democratic candidates today were viewed as unorthodox when he first ran on them in 2016. And as he looks to the general election, Mr. Sanders also frequently labels President Trump as a liar, racist and sexist while making the case that Mr. Trump has broken promises about protecting the social safety net and health care. |
| What Mr. Sanders SAID | What Mr. Sanders SAID |
| “Four years ago, when we said that health care is a human right, we were told that was a radical idea, that the American people wouldn’t accept it. Poll just came out the other day, consistent with other polls, 70 percent of the American people support a ‘Medicare for all’ single-payer program.”— Asheville, N.C., in May | “Four years ago, when we said that health care is a human right, we were told that was a radical idea, that the American people wouldn’t accept it. Poll just came out the other day, consistent with other polls, 70 percent of the American people support a ‘Medicare for all’ single-payer program.”— Asheville, N.C., in May |
| While “Medicare for all” has grown more popular since Mr. Sanders campaigned on it in 2016, not all polls show as many as 70 percent of Americans supporting it. | While “Medicare for all” has grown more popular since Mr. Sanders campaigned on it in 2016, not all polls show as many as 70 percent of Americans supporting it. |
| As lawmakers began working on a health care overhaul in 2009, support for a single-payer system hovered from about 30 to 50 percent in most polls. When the Affordable Care Act became law a year later, national discussions of single-payer systems dissipated and sporadic polling showed that public opinion toward such systems did not change much from the end of 2009 to 2014. | As lawmakers began working on a health care overhaul in 2009, support for a single-payer system hovered from about 30 to 50 percent in most polls. When the Affordable Care Act became law a year later, national discussions of single-payer systems dissipated and sporadic polling showed that public opinion toward such systems did not change much from the end of 2009 to 2014. |
| Most polls now show at least a majority of Americans supporting Medicare for all, though not at the levels Mr. Sanders is suggesting. | Most polls now show at least a majority of Americans supporting Medicare for all, though not at the levels Mr. Sanders is suggesting. |
| In polls from Kaiser Family Foundation, 53 to 59 percent favor such a system. Reuters has found 60 to 70 percent support it, but about 30 to 40 percent say they are less likely to back Medicare for all if income taxes will increase. Similarly, in recent polling by RealClearPolitics, 65 percent of respondents backed a Medicare for all system, but support dipped to 55 percent when told that the system would eliminate private health insurance. | In polls from Kaiser Family Foundation, 53 to 59 percent favor such a system. Reuters has found 60 to 70 percent support it, but about 30 to 40 percent say they are less likely to back Medicare for all if income taxes will increase. Similarly, in recent polling by RealClearPolitics, 65 percent of respondents backed a Medicare for all system, but support dipped to 55 percent when told that the system would eliminate private health insurance. |
| What Mr. Sanders Said | What Mr. Sanders Said |
| “Four years ago, I was in a national TV debate. And the moderator said, Senator Sanders, what do you consider to be a major foreign policy and national security crisis. And I think they expected me to say Al Qaeda, ISIS, which are very serious threats to this country. But I responded and I said the major national security crisis we face is climate change. And the moderator actually laughed. Well they are not laughing today.”— Asheville, N.C., in May | “Four years ago, I was in a national TV debate. And the moderator said, Senator Sanders, what do you consider to be a major foreign policy and national security crisis. And I think they expected me to say Al Qaeda, ISIS, which are very serious threats to this country. But I responded and I said the major national security crisis we face is climate change. And the moderator actually laughed. Well they are not laughing today.”— Asheville, N.C., in May |
| In October 2015, during the first Democratic primary debate, the CNN anchor Anderson Cooper asked the five major candidates to name the “greatest national security threat to the United States.” | In October 2015, during the first Democratic primary debate, the CNN anchor Anderson Cooper asked the five major candidates to name the “greatest national security threat to the United States.” |
| Mr. Sanders’s response, “the global crisis of climate change,” earned applause, not chuckles, from the audience. Video of the debate does not show Mr. Cooper or anyone else laughing either. Martin O’Malley, the former governor of Maryland, also listed climate change, as well as the Islamic State and the nuclear threat posed by Iran, before Mr. Sanders responded. | Mr. Sanders’s response, “the global crisis of climate change,” earned applause, not chuckles, from the audience. Video of the debate does not show Mr. Cooper or anyone else laughing either. Martin O’Malley, the former governor of Maryland, also listed climate change, as well as the Islamic State and the nuclear threat posed by Iran, before Mr. Sanders responded. |
| At the second Democratic primary debate, held a day after a terrorist attack in Paris killed more than 100, Mr. Sanders was asked whether he still stood by his previous answer. | At the second Democratic primary debate, held a day after a terrorist attack in Paris killed more than 100, Mr. Sanders was asked whether he still stood by his previous answer. |
| “Absolutely. In fact, climate change is directly related to the growth of terrorism,” he responded, again to zero laughter. | “Absolutely. In fact, climate change is directly related to the growth of terrorism,” he responded, again to zero laughter. |
| After the debate, Republican lawmakers did deride Mr. Sanders for this answer, while fact-checkers noted that he had overstated the link between climate change and terrorism. | After the debate, Republican lawmakers did deride Mr. Sanders for this answer, while fact-checkers noted that he had overstated the link between climate change and terrorism. |
| Still, the notion that climate change posed a national security risk because it is, as Mr. Sanders suggests, a “threat multiplier” was hardly a fringe belief. The Obama administration, scientists and security experts had sounded the alarm months and years before the debates. | Still, the notion that climate change posed a national security risk because it is, as Mr. Sanders suggests, a “threat multiplier” was hardly a fringe belief. The Obama administration, scientists and security experts had sounded the alarm months and years before the debates. |
| What Mr. Sanders Said | What Mr. Sanders Said |
| Martha MacCallum: “You think we should eliminate nuclear power, which I know they did in Vermont. But it ended up moving your emissions higher.”Mr. Sanders: “Honestly, I don’t think that that’s correct.”— Fox News town hall in April | |
| Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant closed in December 2014, and emissions in the state increased about 6 percent in 2015. But that was always expected, and a temporary blip. | Vermont Yankee nuclear power plant closed in December 2014, and emissions in the state increased about 6 percent in 2015. But that was always expected, and a temporary blip. |
| In 2013, when the plant’s parent company announced that it would shutter Vermont Yankee because of financial reasons, the Energy Information Administration forecast that the electricity it previously generated would be assumed, at least in part, by natural gas, which produces higher emissions than nuclear power. | In 2013, when the plant’s parent company announced that it would shutter Vermont Yankee because of financial reasons, the Energy Information Administration forecast that the electricity it previously generated would be assumed, at least in part, by natural gas, which produces higher emissions than nuclear power. |
| Electricity emissions accounted for 57 percent of the emissions increases in Vermont from 2011 to 2015, and closing the nuclear plant was a “primary cause” in that increase, according to a report prepared for the Vermont Legislature by the nonpartisan research group Resources for the Future. | Electricity emissions accounted for 57 percent of the emissions increases in Vermont from 2011 to 2015, and closing the nuclear plant was a “primary cause” in that increase, according to a report prepared for the Vermont Legislature by the nonpartisan research group Resources for the Future. |
| ISO New England, the grid operator for a regional electricity market that includes Vermont, reported that carbon dioxide emissions rose by 2.5 percent from 2014 to 2015 after the Yankee plant’s retirement. But emissions have decreased in recent years, by 11 percent from 2014 to 2017. | ISO New England, the grid operator for a regional electricity market that includes Vermont, reported that carbon dioxide emissions rose by 2.5 percent from 2014 to 2015 after the Yankee plant’s retirement. But emissions have decreased in recent years, by 11 percent from 2014 to 2017. |
| That is because Vermont is part of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a cap-and-trade program, so all electricity emissions are subject to an emissions cap that declines annually, said Amelia Keyes, an analyst at Resources for the Future. | That is because Vermont is part of the Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative, a cap-and-trade program, so all electricity emissions are subject to an emissions cap that declines annually, said Amelia Keyes, an analyst at Resources for the Future. |
| “Any temporary increases in emissions must be followed by future reductions in order to comply with the cap,” she said. | “Any temporary increases in emissions must be followed by future reductions in order to comply with the cap,” she said. |
| What Mr. Sanders Said | What Mr. Sanders Said |
| “His budget calls for a $1.5 trillion cut in Medicaid over a 10-year period, $800 billion cut in Medicare, and billions in Social Security.”— Birmingham, Ala., in May | “His budget calls for a $1.5 trillion cut in Medicaid over a 10-year period, $800 billion cut in Medicare, and billions in Social Security.”— Birmingham, Ala., in May |
| Mr. Trump’s latest federal budget for the 2020 fiscal year did call for spending reductions for Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security programs. Looking under the hood, however, reveals that the suggested changes may not be quite as large or as draconian to beneficiaries as Mr. Sanders’s cited figures suggest. | Mr. Trump’s latest federal budget for the 2020 fiscal year did call for spending reductions for Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security programs. Looking under the hood, however, reveals that the suggested changes may not be quite as large or as draconian to beneficiaries as Mr. Sanders’s cited figures suggest. |
| “They’re all cuts, but not all cuts are created equal,” said Paul N. Van De Water, a policy analyst at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. | “They’re all cuts, but not all cuts are created equal,” said Paul N. Van De Water, a policy analyst at the left-leaning Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. |
| The budget called for repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act by enacting a health care bill sponsored by the Republican senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. That bill, which did not receive a vote in Congress, sought to eliminate the expansion of Medicaid coverage to poor adults and instead divert some of the funding to block grants for states to set up their own programs. | The budget called for repealing and replacing the Affordable Care Act by enacting a health care bill sponsored by the Republican senators Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. That bill, which did not receive a vote in Congress, sought to eliminate the expansion of Medicaid coverage to poor adults and instead divert some of the funding to block grants for states to set up their own programs. |
| Those changes would result in a $1.5 trillion cut to Medicaid over a decade, but give states $1.2 trillion to enforce the block grants. Altogether, the budget calls for a $777 billion cut in spending on Medicaid and health care subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. | Those changes would result in a $1.5 trillion cut to Medicaid over a decade, but give states $1.2 trillion to enforce the block grants. Altogether, the budget calls for a $777 billion cut in spending on Medicaid and health care subsidies under the Affordable Care Act, according to the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities. |
| A third of the more than $800 billion in “cuts” to Medicare comes from diverting funding from two Medicare programs — payments that cover the costs of hospitals that serve a disproportionate share of poor patients and payments for graduate education — into other portions of the budget. | A third of the more than $800 billion in “cuts” to Medicare comes from diverting funding from two Medicare programs — payments that cover the costs of hospitals that serve a disproportionate share of poor patients and payments for graduate education — into other portions of the budget. |
| “After making these accounting shifts, the net reductions in federal spending derived from changes to the Medicare program would be lower, in the range of $500 plus billion over 10 years,” said Juliette Cubanski, a Medicare expert at the Kaiser Family Foundation. | “After making these accounting shifts, the net reductions in federal spending derived from changes to the Medicare program would be lower, in the range of $500 plus billion over 10 years,” said Juliette Cubanski, a Medicare expert at the Kaiser Family Foundation. |
| That’s in line with Mr. Van de Water’s estimate of $592 billion, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s estimate of $575 billion. Other spending reductions in Medicare come from the administration’s proposals to reduce payments to providers and lower drug prices — many proposals similar to those in the budgets under President Barack Obama. Some of these cuts might affect some beneficiaries who rely on Medicare’s plans for prescription drugs, but the bulk would not. | That’s in line with Mr. Van de Water’s estimate of $592 billion, and the Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget’s estimate of $575 billion. Other spending reductions in Medicare come from the administration’s proposals to reduce payments to providers and lower drug prices — many proposals similar to those in the budgets under President Barack Obama. Some of these cuts might affect some beneficiaries who rely on Medicare’s plans for prescription drugs, but the bulk would not. |
| What Mr. Sanders Said | What Mr. Sanders Said |
| “Today, under the Trump administration, seven million people have already lost their health insurance.” — Madison, Wis., in April | “Today, under the Trump administration, seven million people have already lost their health insurance.” — Madison, Wis., in April |
| A January poll by Gallup showed that the uninsured rate increased to 13.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, from 10.9 percent in the same period in 2016 — corresponding to about seven million more uninsured adults. | A January poll by Gallup showed that the uninsured rate increased to 13.7 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, from 10.9 percent in the same period in 2016 — corresponding to about seven million more uninsured adults. |
| Other sources of data, however, do not show as large of an increase. | Other sources of data, however, do not show as large of an increase. |
| The National Center for Health Statistics estimated that 29.7 million were uninsured in the first nine months of 2018, compared with 28.2 million in the first nine months of 2016 — an increase of 1.5 million. | The National Center for Health Statistics estimated that 29.7 million were uninsured in the first nine months of 2018, compared with 28.2 million in the first nine months of 2016 — an increase of 1.5 million. |
| Polling from the Commonwealth Fund found that in 2018, “the uninsured rate among U.S. adults ages 19 to 64 was 12.4 percent, statistically unchanged from 2016,” despite efforts by the Trump administration to cripple the Affordable Care Act. | Polling from the Commonwealth Fund found that in 2018, “the uninsured rate among U.S. adults ages 19 to 64 was 12.4 percent, statistically unchanged from 2016,” despite efforts by the Trump administration to cripple the Affordable Care Act. |
| The Census Bureau reached a similar conclusion that “the uninsured rate and number of uninsured in 2017 were not statistically different from 2016.” (The bureau has not yet released 2018 figures.) | The Census Bureau reached a similar conclusion that “the uninsured rate and number of uninsured in 2017 were not statistically different from 2016.” (The bureau has not yet released 2018 figures.) |
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