What makes the Tories think that anyone must be better than Mrs May?

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/26/what-makes-tories-think-anyone-must-be-better-than-theresa-may

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I don’t know about you, but I am surprised that Chris Grayling has not yet announced that he is a candidate for the Tory leadership. You might object that his cabinet career has been distinguished by the opposite of success, but the lack of any demonstrable qualification to be prime minister isn’t holding back many others. Even his most adoring admirers wouldn’t claim that Boris Johnson added lustre to his own reputation or Britain’s global standing during his embarrassment-encrusted interlude as foreign secretary, but the contest begins with him as the pollsters’ and bookies’ favourite.

More than a dozen other Tories think they have what it takes to lead the country during one of the most dangerous periods for Britain and their party since 1945. The quantity of the candidates is not an indication of the quality of the leadership pool. It is a symptom of rampant factionalism and unrestrained narcissism.

This is not a competition that will reward humility, thoughtfulness or honesty and that’s encouraging for the prospects of the former foreign secretary. Yes, it is an often reliable rule that the person who starts as favourite in a Tory leadership race doesn’t win. The rule applied to him last time around when he was tipped to triumph, only then to bottle out after Michael Gove betrayed him. Favourites often trip up, and Mr Johnson has a vivid history of falling over his well-advertised character flaws, but that is different to saying he can’t win.

A fast-track race and a crowded field probably boost his chances. There will be a couple of weeks for the contenders to flaunt their thoughts, supporters, partners, pets and kitchens, not necessarily in that order of attractiveness, for the delectation of fellow Tories and the derision of the wider nation. Then Conservative MPs will start voting to whittle down the field to the two names that will compete for the support of Tory members. The early rounds of this elimination stage will be critical. As the no-hopers are knocked out or humiliated into withdrawal, it will be important where they then choose to throw their support.

Only a few months ago, a lot of Tories thought that Boris Johnson was a busted flush and they were glad of it. What has changed their minds? The main thing is the bone-melting panic that the surge in support for the Brexit party represents an existential threat. When I asked one Conservative MP, who was previously a convinced Johnson-sceptic, why he was now flirting with the idea of a Borisovian leadership, he answered with one word: “Farage.” The simple but seductive pitch to Conservative MPs and activists will be that he is the only one among them with the campaign skills to smother Nigel Farage and see off Jeremy Corbyn.

The choice of next leader will be heavily influenced by reaction to the failures of Theresa May. When one experiment has gone horribly wrong, it is often a human response to try the exact opposite. Many Tories will think the best way to move on from her miserable premiership is to choose a successor who is as different as can be and you can’t get much more opposite to the vicar’s daughter than the priapic former mayor of London. She was dutiful, hard-working, church-going, self-contained, controlled and possessed some principles. She was also introverted, anti-charismatic, wooden, a constipated communicator, unimaginative and rigid. All those traits, good and bad, are reversed in him. One senior Conservative remarks: “The Tory party is tired of a leader so dull that the worst sin she ever committed as a child was to run through a field of wheat. They now want some entertainment and wickedness. So they will probably take a punt on Boris. It will be a wild ride on the tiger. Boris will be a hoot. The question is whether the country wants a hoot.” If you are shocked that this is the level of thinking that will determine who becomes Britain’s next prime minister, then you are not very well acquainted with the Conservatives.

The new prime minister will be deprived of the authority that flows from enjoying direct affirmation by the voters

Whoever acquires the battered crown will face all the challenges that defeated Mrs May and some extra ones of their own. One issue that will immediately confront the new Tory prime minister will be democratic legitimacy. He or she will be the product of the calculations of about 300 MPs and the predilections of the 100,000 or so members of the Conservative party. This shrunken and fairly elderly tribe will not be at all representative of the British people. That will give extra bite to Labour’s demands for a general election. It is true that prime ministers have been changed without a reference to the people in the past. The Tories swapped Eden for Macmillan and then Macmillan for Douglas-Home without immediately going to the country. Labour did the same when Callaghan followed Wilson, and Brown succeeded Blair. So it will be possible to argue that there is nothing in constitutional theory to say that the governing party is required to get the sanction of the electorate for a change of prime minister. Possible, but hollow. The new prime minister will be deprived of the personal authority that flows from enjoying direct affirmation by the voters. Gordon Brown came to feel this sharply after he had taken over from Tony Blair, and lived to regret that he did not call an election when he might have won one. At least he had the comfort of inheriting a substantial parliamentary majority. The legitimacy problem will be the more acute for Mrs May’s successor because her bequest is a hung parliament and unresolved Brexit deadlock.

Her premiership was broken on Brexit not least because she had no clear mandate for any kind of resolution to the nightmare. As Philip Hammond tried to warn his party the other day, there is certainly no popular mandate for a no-deal Brexit, a proposition that was never put to the British people by Mr Johnson and his fellow travellers during the 2016 referendum. The majority of Britons do not want to crash out of the EU without an agreement.

The Tory leadership contest could be an opportunity for the party’s senior politicians to be candid with their activists about the trade-offs required to do Brexit without inflicting calamitous damage to the economy and Britain’s international standing. Do you expect the contenders to frankly level with their party? No, me neither. Surveys suggest that about two-thirds of Tory members yearn for a no-deal Brexit. Mrs May commended compromise in her farewell statement from Number 10 – better late than never, I suppose – but one of her most poisonous legacies is to discredit the very idea within her party. The pressure on the leadership contenders will be to sound as uncompromising about Brexit as possible. This will be a great handicap to the relatively moderate candidates, especially those contenders who originally voted Remain. Jeremy Hunt can describe himself as a born-again Brexiter, but he will still be damned by his rivals as Theresa May with male chromosomes.

No contestant who hopes to secure the support of a majority of Tory activists will be a defender of Mrs May’s unloved deal. On the day that she made her tearful resignation statement, Boris Johnson told an audience in Switzerland that under him “we will leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no deal”. The dynamics of the contest will impel all the candidates to vow that they can wring concessions out of the EU under the threat of crashing Britain out if, as is highly likely, the EU declines to oblige.

A Tory prime minister installed in this fashion might enjoy an early honeymoon with the party, but he or she will be swiftly confronted with some hideous choices. They will have to try to resolve Brexit without any personal contract with the electorate or gamble on changing the parliamentary maths by triggering an early election that could turn them into the briefest prime minister of modern times. Even if he or she can engineer some kind of renegotiation with the EU – a huge if – they will not return with anything palpably superior to that achieved by Mrs May. This will betray the expectations of their members. Tories horrified by a crash-out Brexit will threaten to vote with the opposition to collapse the government if the new leader attempts to force through a no-deal outcome without a popular mandate and against the will of parliament.

After three years of escalating chaos and national humiliation under Theresa May, a lot of Tories seem to have convinced themselves that anyone else has to be an improvement. This is but the latest of their delusions.