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| Version 1 | Version 2 |
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| Five things we have learned from UK's European elections | |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| 1. Brexit party: the undoubted winner | 1. Brexit party: the undoubted winner |
| Nigel Farage’s party has clearly come out on top in terms of votes cast, but the party’s effective anti-establishment campaign was still not quite as good as the some of the polls were suggesting. | Nigel Farage’s party has clearly come out on top in terms of votes cast, but the party’s effective anti-establishment campaign was still not quite as good as the some of the polls were suggesting. |
| On the night, the newly formed Brexit party polled around 31.6%, taking votes from the Conservatives and Labour. That placed it ahead of Ukip’s winning performance in 2014, when Farage’s then party achieved 27.5% in a tighter three-way contest. | On the night, the newly formed Brexit party polled around 31.6%, taking votes from the Conservatives and Labour. That placed it ahead of Ukip’s winning performance in 2014, when Farage’s then party achieved 27.5% in a tighter three-way contest. |
| The Brexit party had a remarkable run in the traditional Labour territory of Wales, winning, for example, in Cardiff. And in the West Midlands and east of England regions the party scored an impressive 38%; up from Ukip’s 2014 results of 31.5% and 34.5% respectively. | The Brexit party had a remarkable run in the traditional Labour territory of Wales, winning, for example, in Cardiff. And in the West Midlands and east of England regions the party scored an impressive 38%; up from Ukip’s 2014 results of 31.5% and 34.5% respectively. |
| But with the party scoring as high as 37% in polling towards the end of the campaign, the final total was at the lower end of expectations. On the other hand, its margin of victory over the second-placed Lib Dems remained considerable. | But with the party scoring as high as 37% in polling towards the end of the campaign, the final total was at the lower end of expectations. On the other hand, its margin of victory over the second-placed Lib Dems remained considerable. |
| 2. Lib Dems: the emotional winners | 2. Lib Dems: the emotional winners |
| The LibDems were the emotional winners with the final results handing the party a healthy second-place finish as almost all pro-remain parties enjoyed a buoyant night. | The LibDems were the emotional winners with the final results handing the party a healthy second-place finish as almost all pro-remain parties enjoyed a buoyant night. |
| The party achieved 20.3%, placing it comfortably in second. It had been polling at 16% on average in pre-election polls, but by outperforming that it demonstrated it was the principal beneficiary of voters concerned by Farage’s return to the political stage. | The party achieved 20.3%, placing it comfortably in second. It had been polling at 16% on average in pre-election polls, but by outperforming that it demonstrated it was the principal beneficiary of voters concerned by Farage’s return to the political stage. |
| A win in London with 27% was remarkable enough in its own right, but all the more so given the party polled 6.7% in 2014 and had finished fifth behind the Greens. There were no shortage of other notable wins, including in Cambridge, where the city has a Labour MP, and in inner London boroughs such as Lambeth and Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington. | A win in London with 27% was remarkable enough in its own right, but all the more so given the party polled 6.7% in 2014 and had finished fifth behind the Greens. There were no shortage of other notable wins, including in Cambridge, where the city has a Labour MP, and in inner London boroughs such as Lambeth and Jeremy Corbyn’s Islington. |
| 3. Labour: a disappointing night | 3. Labour: a disappointing night |
| Labour fared poorly, coming third behind the Lib Dems and losing votes to the pro-second referendum parties and the dominant Brexit party. | Labour fared poorly, coming third behind the Lib Dems and losing votes to the pro-second referendum parties and the dominant Brexit party. |
| The results placed Labour at about 14.1%, sharply down on the last European election where it scored 25.4% and far below its 2017 high water mark, where it secured 40%. | The results placed Labour at about 14.1%, sharply down on the last European election where it scored 25.4% and far below its 2017 high water mark, where it secured 40%. |
| In an election where many people wanted to make a statement about Brexit, the party’s constructive ambiguity left it a weak third, only a couple of points ahead of the Greens. A few days before the election, Labour was still polling just above 20% on average, underlining how far it had fallen in the immediate run-up to election day. | In an election where many people wanted to make a statement about Brexit, the party’s constructive ambiguity left it a weak third, only a couple of points ahead of the Greens. A few days before the election, Labour was still polling just above 20% on average, underlining how far it had fallen in the immediate run-up to election day. |
| Labour came third in Wales – where it has only once before failed to win (in the 2009 European election). It was defeated in London, losing 13 percentage points to finish at 24%, behind the Lib Dems. It was trounced in the north-east by the Brexit party, falling 17 percentage points to 19%. | Labour came third in Wales – where it has only once before failed to win (in the 2009 European election). It was defeated in London, losing 13 percentage points to finish at 24%, behind the Lib Dems. It was trounced in the north-east by the Brexit party, falling 17 percentage points to 19%. |
| 4. Conservatives: worse than predicted performance | 4. Conservatives: worse than predicted performance |
| The Conservatives performed even more poorly than predicted, coming behind the Greens in fifth after early results, with about 9.1% of the vote. That is the worst national election result for the party in its history. | The Conservatives performed even more poorly than predicted, coming behind the Greens in fifth after early results, with about 9.1% of the vote. That is the worst national election result for the party in its history. |
| Party insiders will not have wanted to trail the Greens, but that looked likely as the failure to deliver Brexit by 29 March severely damaged the normally dominant party. | Party insiders will not have wanted to trail the Greens, but that looked likely as the failure to deliver Brexit by 29 March severely damaged the normally dominant party. |
| There was little comfort from regional results. While the party might perhaps have expected to score 8% in London, it also scored 10% in the eastern region and 11% in the West Midlands. The only comfort is that it is obvious where the party needs to fish for votes: from the Brexit party. | There was little comfort from regional results. While the party might perhaps have expected to score 8% in London, it also scored 10% in the eastern region and 11% in the West Midlands. The only comfort is that it is obvious where the party needs to fish for votes: from the Brexit party. |
| 5. Second referendum: almost all parties in favour had a good night | 5. Second referendum: almost all parties in favour had a good night |
| The other pro-second referendum parties did well, with the exception of Change UK. | The other pro-second referendum parties did well, with the exception of Change UK. |
| The Greens achieved a share of 12.1%, comfortably ahead of the 8% achieved in the previous two European elections. The SNP’s 38% in Scotland was well above the 29% it obtained in 2014 (although only one percentage point ahead of its 2017 general election share). | The Greens achieved a share of 12.1%, comfortably ahead of the 8% achieved in the previous two European elections. The SNP’s 38% in Scotland was well above the 29% it obtained in 2014 (although only one percentage point ahead of its 2017 general election share). |
| Plaid Cymru came second in Wales on 19.6%, up four percentage points from last time. Only Change UK struggled, finishing just ahead of Ukip at 3.4%, reflecting a crowded field of anti-Brexit parties. | Plaid Cymru came second in Wales on 19.6%, up four percentage points from last time. Only Change UK struggled, finishing just ahead of Ukip at 3.4%, reflecting a crowded field of anti-Brexit parties. |
| Most significantly, the share of the two unambiguously pro-Brexit parties – the Brexit party and Ukip – was 34.9%, markedly lower than the aggregate total of the pro-second referendum parties (the Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, the Scottish National party and Plaid) at 40.3%. | Most significantly, the share of the two unambiguously pro-Brexit parties – the Brexit party and Ukip – was 34.9%, markedly lower than the aggregate total of the pro-second referendum parties (the Lib Dems, Greens, Change UK, the Scottish National party and Plaid) at 40.3%. |
| European parliamentary elections 2019 | European parliamentary elections 2019 |
| European elections | European elections |
| Brexit party | Brexit party |
| Labour | Labour |
| Conservatives | Conservatives |
| Liberal Democrats | Liberal Democrats |
| Brexit | Brexit |
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