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Tornado Outbreak: One More Day of Severe Weather, Then Forecast Shows Relief Tornado Outbreak: One More Day of Severe Weather, Then Forecast Shows Relief
(about 4 hours later)
A run of severe storms might be nearing an end. People took shelter in their bathrooms in the Midwest, and in the basement of the United States Capitol. Others surveyed splintered homes in an Ohio suburb, or were hemmed in by barricaded Oklahoma roads. Crews collected debris in Missouri that had blown over from Kansas, and phones around Fort Worth squawked as another storm tore from the sky and threatened another city.
Forecasters said Wednesday that the conditions that have spawned tornadoes and thunderstorms across the country appeared to be easing and that the extreme weather might fade — at least for a little while — before the weekend. But at last, a record-setting run of severe storms that has spawned hundreds of tornadoes across the nation over the past two weeks appeared on Wednesday to be nearing an end.
But more than 37 million people still faced an “enhanced” risk for severe storms on Wednesday, according to the Storm Prediction Center, a part of the National Weather Service. The center posted the advisory for parts of Arkansas, Delaware, the District of Columbia, Illinois, Maryland, Missouri, New Jersey, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Texas and West Virginia. Conditions appeared poised to ease on Thursday and into the weekend, as the toll of a dozen consecutive days of destructive storms became clearer: at least seven deaths, scores of injuries, a roster of ravaged communities and tens of millions of people who had faced peril.
Another 48 million people were at “slight” risk, including people in cities like Cincinnati, Indianapolis and New York. “I went into my hallway, because I don’t have a basement, and I felt my house sort of twist,” said Mildred Crouch, who saw home after home near hers destroyed in Celina, Ohio, this week.
“It’s like a nightmare,” she said.
Powered by a high pressure system in the South and a trough that hung atop the West, the burst of storms pushed the United States to a total of 38 tornado-linked deaths so far this year, the highest count since 2014. Tuesday was the 12th consecutive day when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration received at least eight reports of tornadoes.
And of the 295 tornado or severe thunderstorm watches that forecasters have issued this year, more than 40 percent have come since May 17, when this pernicious round of bad weather began.
[Here’s what you can do when tornadoes are threatening your area.][Here’s what you can do when tornadoes are threatening your area.]
Forecasters were mostly concerned about the possibility of severe thunderstorms, including hail, though they noted that “a tornado or two” could form in some areas. The meteorologists were more optimistic about Thursday, when only a handful of states were expected to face “slight” risk, as well as Friday. The storms mostly attacked small communities — places like Linwood, Kan., population 375 or so — and slightly larger ones, like Celina, where about 10,000 people live and where a man was killed on Monday night. But tornado warnings also sounded in some of the nation’s biggest cities: Washington, Chicago, New York, Oklahoma City, and Kansas City, Mo.
The atmospheric calming will take hold after a tragic, protracted stretch of storms in the worst year for tornado deaths since 2014. Tuesday was the record-setting 12th consecutive day when the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration received at least eight reports of tornadoes, and tornadoes have been linked to at least seven deaths this month, pushing the year’s tornado fatality toll to 38. Some of the tornadoes touched down, their funnels hundreds of yards wide in some cases, and raced across the landscape for miles, pulling apart houses and upending entire blocks. Others, including many of the storms that menaced the biggest cities, left barely a trace of their feared fury.
[There were more than 500 tornadoes reported in 30 days. Read more about the unrelenting stretch here.][There were more than 500 tornadoes reported in 30 days. Read more about the unrelenting stretch here.]
The powerful, and often violent, storms were fueled by a high-pressure area that pulled the Gulf of Mexico’s warm, moist air into the central United States, where it combined with the effects of a trough trapped over the Rockies, which included strong winds. And to the mounting anxiety of meteorologists, those conditions did not change quickly. Climate change is increasingly linked to extreme weather. But historical information about tornadoes is limited, especially when compared with temperature data, which is available going back more than a century. And that has made it difficult for researchers to determine whether rising atmospheric temperatures are making tornadoes more common and severe.
Climate change is increasingly linked to extreme weather, but limited historical information, especially when compared with temperature data that goes back more than a century, has made it difficult for researchers to determine whether rising temperatures are making tornadoes more common and severe.
At the same time, researchers have found that tornadoes are increasingly clustered in short periods of time.At the same time, researchers have found that tornadoes are increasingly clustered in short periods of time.
“We’re seeing more tornadoes on days in which we see tornadoes,” said Patrick Marsh, the warning coordination meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center and a co-author of a study on the subject that was published in the journal Science in 2014. “And since we’re in a pattern right now where we’re seeing tornadoes every day, we’re seeing more of them.” “We’re seeing more tornadoes on days in which we see tornadoes,” said Patrick Marsh, the warning coordination meteorologist at the Storm Prediction Center and a co-author of a study on the subject published in the journal Science in 2014. “And since we’re in a pattern right now where we’re seeing tornadoes every day, we’re seeing more of them.”
So it has been across the country lately. On Tuesday, a “convective day,” a 24-hour period government forecasters use to track conditions, there were 19 tornado reports — an unnerving figure, but an improvement from the 55 reports of the day before. So it has been across the country lately. During Tuesday’s “convective day,” a 24-hour period that government forecasters use to track conditions, there were 19 tornado reports — an unnerving figure, but an improvement from the 55 reports of the day before.
Some of the worst weather on Tuesday happened as evening fell in Kansas, where at least a dozen people were injured in the area around Lawrence, home of the University of Kansas. The authorities did not immediately report any fatalities, but there was substantial devastation in some communities, including Linwood. Although the country might see fewer tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the days to come, flooding is expected to remain a risk in some states, including Arkansas and Oklahoma. More than 80 river gauges, all of them in the Midwest and the South, were in “major flooding” stage on Wednesday, the government said.
Although the country might see fewer tornadoes and severe thunderstorms in the coming days, flooding is expected to remain a risk in some states, including Arkansas and Oklahoma. Some 77 river gauges, all of them in the Midwest and the South, were in “major flooding” stage on Wednesday, the government said.
[Braggs, a town of in rural Oklahoma, has become a virtual island. Floodwaters have nearly surrounded it, cutting off residents, who have formed an ad hoc emergency response network.][Braggs, a town of in rural Oklahoma, has become a virtual island. Floodwaters have nearly surrounded it, cutting off residents, who have formed an ad hoc emergency response network.]