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Forget Boris Johnson. The Tory leader will come from the centre Forget Boris Johnson. The Tory leader could come from the centre
(32 minutes later)
Something important and wholly without precedent is happening in plain sight in British politics – but not enough attention is being paid to it. The something is that never before has a new British prime minister been chosen by the grassroots members of the ruling political party. Such a thing might have happened in 2007, when Tony Blair resigned, but Gordon Brown was chosen unopposed. It nearly happened in 2016, after David Cameron stepped down, but in the end the other candidates stood aside in favour of Theresa May.Something important and wholly without precedent is happening in plain sight in British politics – but not enough attention is being paid to it. The something is that never before has a new British prime minister been chosen by the grassroots members of the ruling political party. Such a thing might have happened in 2007, when Tony Blair resigned, but Gordon Brown was chosen unopposed. It nearly happened in 2016, after David Cameron stepped down, but in the end the other candidates stood aside in favour of Theresa May.
Now it’s the third time it could happen, and this one is almost certain to be different. There are already 11 candidates in the field to succeed May. Five more are said to be weighing whether to join. Many will fall at the first and subsequent hurdles in June, when Tory MPs begin a series of elimination votes in Westminster. But it would be a surprise if this contest does not go all the way to a two-person runoff among the party members in July. If it does, that will be a historic first – a national leader chosen by a party membership, not by parliamentarians or the wider public.Now it’s the third time it could happen, and this one is almost certain to be different. There are already 11 candidates in the field to succeed May. Five more are said to be weighing whether to join. Many will fall at the first and subsequent hurdles in June, when Tory MPs begin a series of elimination votes in Westminster. But it would be a surprise if this contest does not go all the way to a two-person runoff among the party members in July. If it does, that will be a historic first – a national leader chosen by a party membership, not by parliamentarians or the wider public.
So the first thing to do is to look with considerable care at the process. This starts with the parliamentary numbers. There are 313 Conservative MPs. Unless the backbench 1922 Committee changes the rules – which they may – these 313 have the power to winnow the field to arrive at the two candidates to go through to the members’ ballot runoff.So the first thing to do is to look with considerable care at the process. This starts with the parliamentary numbers. There are 313 Conservative MPs. Unless the backbench 1922 Committee changes the rules – which they may – these 313 have the power to winnow the field to arrive at the two candidates to go through to the members’ ballot runoff.
When May’s leadership was challenged last December, she won by 200 to 117. When her Brexit deal was defeated a month later in the biggest governing party revolt of modern times, 196 Tory MPs backed her, against 118 who did not (including three current candidates for the leadership). These majorities provide a good rough estimate of the balance between the centre – loosely defined as former May loyalists and Brexit deal backers – and the right among Tory MPs, which is now broadly 62:38.When May’s leadership was challenged last December, she won by 200 to 117. When her Brexit deal was defeated a month later in the biggest governing party revolt of modern times, 196 Tory MPs backed her, against 118 who did not (including three current candidates for the leadership). These majorities provide a good rough estimate of the balance between the centre – loosely defined as former May loyalists and Brexit deal backers – and the right among Tory MPs, which is now broadly 62:38.
Of course, as the contest heats up, all sorts of other dynamics will come into play. And there is lots to play for. At this early stage, only 130 Tory MPs have openly backed the existing candidates. Even if they all carry out these pledges – which would also be a first – that still leaves more than 180 votes outstanding. That’s why it matters a lot that the centrist contenders are fishing in a significantly bigger pool of votes. Their candidates have an advantage. It is even possible, though far from certain, that the final elimination could throw up two centrists – repeat, loosely defined – and no rightwinger.Of course, as the contest heats up, all sorts of other dynamics will come into play. And there is lots to play for. At this early stage, only 130 Tory MPs have openly backed the existing candidates. Even if they all carry out these pledges – which would also be a first – that still leaves more than 180 votes outstanding. That’s why it matters a lot that the centrist contenders are fishing in a significantly bigger pool of votes. Their candidates have an advantage. It is even possible, though far from certain, that the final elimination could throw up two centrists – repeat, loosely defined – and no rightwinger.
This is not at all the impression you get from much of the media coverage. This depicts the contest as one in which the Tory centrist candidates are jockeying to appeal to the parliamentary party’s rightwing hard-Brexit minority, and to the millions of voters who flocked to Nigel Farage’s party last week. But this is a false and self-serving narrative of the right.This is not at all the impression you get from much of the media coverage. This depicts the contest as one in which the Tory centrist candidates are jockeying to appeal to the parliamentary party’s rightwing hard-Brexit minority, and to the millions of voters who flocked to Nigel Farage’s party last week. But this is a false and self-serving narrative of the right.
The second thing to remember is that the grassroots part of the contest is wholly untested ground. This in itself suggests the need for caution in making predictions. In spite of this, it is being widely assumed that the contest is a shoo-in, and that most of the 160,000 Tory members are impatiently awaiting their opportunity to crown Boris Johnson as May’s successor. Maybe that’s so. But it doesn’t quite ring true, and not just because it would be a very bad thing for Britain.The second thing to remember is that the grassroots part of the contest is wholly untested ground. This in itself suggests the need for caution in making predictions. In spite of this, it is being widely assumed that the contest is a shoo-in, and that most of the 160,000 Tory members are impatiently awaiting their opportunity to crown Boris Johnson as May’s successor. Maybe that’s so. But it doesn’t quite ring true, and not just because it would be a very bad thing for Britain.
Partly it’s because so much can happen along the campaign trail. That was the lesson of the 2016 contest, in which Johnson blew up on the launchpad and Andrea Leadsom gave a disastrous interview. Yesterday’s summons to Johnson to answer a private prosecution of misconduct in public office is a classic case in point. The televised debates between the candidates could provide another point of vulnerability, and an opportunity for Johnson’s rivals. The dawning realisation that promising a no-deal Brexit could hasten the likelihood of a general election and no Brexit at all ensures a shifting backdrop. If something like 2016 repeats itself, and Johnson does not stay the course or loses his allure, the contest will suddenly look very different.Partly it’s because so much can happen along the campaign trail. That was the lesson of the 2016 contest, in which Johnson blew up on the launchpad and Andrea Leadsom gave a disastrous interview. Yesterday’s summons to Johnson to answer a private prosecution of misconduct in public office is a classic case in point. The televised debates between the candidates could provide another point of vulnerability, and an opportunity for Johnson’s rivals. The dawning realisation that promising a no-deal Brexit could hasten the likelihood of a general election and no Brexit at all ensures a shifting backdrop. If something like 2016 repeats itself, and Johnson does not stay the course or loses his allure, the contest will suddenly look very different.
Then there are the voters. Choosing a prime minister is a pretty special responsibility, especially in uncertain times. You are choosing a national leader as well as a party one. You are choosing someone to try to succeed where May failed. You may even remember that 91% of voters rejected the Tories last week and ask yourself how you might win their confidence back.Then there are the voters. Choosing a prime minister is a pretty special responsibility, especially in uncertain times. You are choosing a national leader as well as a party one. You are choosing someone to try to succeed where May failed. You may even remember that 91% of voters rejected the Tories last week and ask yourself how you might win their confidence back.
So it is inherently unlikely that most grassroots Tories will pick a candidate for a laugh. On the contrary, it would be human nature to give considerable thought to whether the candidate would actually cut the mustard as a prime minister. They will surely ask if he or she has the dignity, the skills and the presentability of a national leader.So it is inherently unlikely that most grassroots Tories will pick a candidate for a laugh. On the contrary, it would be human nature to give considerable thought to whether the candidate would actually cut the mustard as a prime minister. They will surely ask if he or she has the dignity, the skills and the presentability of a national leader.
That’s why May would, I suspect, have beaten Leadsom in 2016 even if the fight had gone to the membership. It is also why the more that the members ask themselves these questions this time around, which they surely will, the worse things will look for Johnson and the better they will look for one of his rivals. In short, the assumption that Johnson will win this looks very premature. In short, this contest is much more open than many seem to think.That’s why May would, I suspect, have beaten Leadsom in 2016 even if the fight had gone to the membership. It is also why the more that the members ask themselves these questions this time around, which they surely will, the worse things will look for Johnson and the better they will look for one of his rivals. In short, the assumption that Johnson will win this looks very premature. In short, this contest is much more open than many seem to think.
So we must look out for the unexpected. Look out for a candidate who is good at shaking things up. Look out for someone who makes the established frontrunners appear staid, slow and stale, the way Barack Obama did in 2008 in the US and Emmanuel Macron did in 2017 in France. Look out for one of Rory Stewart, Penny Mordaunt, Matt Hancock or maybe Michael Gove. All seem to have grasped that this election may not, after all, be a race to appease the hard right. It may, instead, be won in the Conservative centre, and with the support of the Tory grassroots too.So we must look out for the unexpected. Look out for a candidate who is good at shaking things up. Look out for someone who makes the established frontrunners appear staid, slow and stale, the way Barack Obama did in 2008 in the US and Emmanuel Macron did in 2017 in France. Look out for one of Rory Stewart, Penny Mordaunt, Matt Hancock or maybe Michael Gove. All seem to have grasped that this election may not, after all, be a race to appease the hard right. It may, instead, be won in the Conservative centre, and with the support of the Tory grassroots too.
• Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist• Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist
Conservative leadershipConservative leadership
OpinionOpinion
ConservativesConservatives
Boris JohnsonBoris Johnson
Rory StewartRory Stewart
Michael GoveMichael Gove
Matt HancockMatt Hancock
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