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The 2020 Race Is Testing Progressives’ Power. They’re Pushing Back. The 2020 Race Is Testing Progressives’ Power. They’re Pushing Back.
(about 1 hour later)
Optimism filled the Prospect Park air as more than 100 supporters of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign gathered last week for an organizing event called “How to Be All In for Elizabeth.” But as dusk approached, the final “She Has a Plan” button was handed out, and the crowd of mostly millennial Brooklynites began to disperse, hope gave way to skepticism.Optimism filled the Prospect Park air as more than 100 supporters of Senator Elizabeth Warren’s presidential campaign gathered last week for an organizing event called “How to Be All In for Elizabeth.” But as dusk approached, the final “She Has a Plan” button was handed out, and the crowd of mostly millennial Brooklynites began to disperse, hope gave way to skepticism.
Michael Rose, 36, expressed concern that a candidate like former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. would earn the party’s nomination, and that Democrats, faced with a historically diverse field, would choose “an old white guy that appeals to moderates.”Michael Rose, 36, expressed concern that a candidate like former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. would earn the party’s nomination, and that Democrats, faced with a historically diverse field, would choose “an old white guy that appeals to moderates.”
Amelita Lijek, 31, said the primary represented a crossroads for the party. “We have this choice here: to go positive and go with what feels inspiring, or to live in doubt and cower,” Ms. Lijek said. “It’s terrifying.”Amelita Lijek, 31, said the primary represented a crossroads for the party. “We have this choice here: to go positive and go with what feels inspiring, or to live in doubt and cower,” Ms. Lijek said. “It’s terrifying.”
After months of liberal senators dominating the Democratic presidential primary, and leftist ideas such as the Green New Deal and “Medicare for All” getting significant national attention, Mr. Biden’s entrance into the race last month has swung the conversation back toward the center.After months of liberal senators dominating the Democratic presidential primary, and leftist ideas such as the Green New Deal and “Medicare for All” getting significant national attention, Mr. Biden’s entrance into the race last month has swung the conversation back toward the center.
The result: rising tensions within the Democratic electorate between liberal activists who don’t want their policy ideas and favored candidates to lose ground, and some party officials and voters who hope to see moderate candidates gain even more momentum.The result: rising tensions within the Democratic electorate between liberal activists who don’t want their policy ideas and favored candidates to lose ground, and some party officials and voters who hope to see moderate candidates gain even more momentum.
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Since 2016, when Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont thrust policy proposals like free college and single-payer health care into the national debate during his presidential run, progressives have tried to deepen their foothold in the party — and by some measures, they have succeeded.Since 2016, when Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont thrust policy proposals like free college and single-payer health care into the national debate during his presidential run, progressives have tried to deepen their foothold in the party — and by some measures, they have succeeded.
Last year saw the election to the House of Representatives of uncompromising liberals with new ideas and large social media followings such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. The Congressional Progressive Caucus swelled to 98 members. Organizations like Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America have expanded their ranks.Last year saw the election to the House of Representatives of uncompromising liberals with new ideas and large social media followings such as Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York. The Congressional Progressive Caucus swelled to 98 members. Organizations like Justice Democrats and the Democratic Socialists of America have expanded their ranks.
Yet it is Mr. Biden who currently enjoys an early lead by most traditional measures, buoyed by high name recognition and a perception among some voters that he is best suited to defeat President Trump. That perception has sometimes been fueled by bias, including the sexist belief that female candidates are more likely to lose. And Mr. Biden has courted the front-runner image by refusing to engage with his primary rivals and singularly focusing on Mr. Trump.Yet it is Mr. Biden who currently enjoys an early lead by most traditional measures, buoyed by high name recognition and a perception among some voters that he is best suited to defeat President Trump. That perception has sometimes been fueled by bias, including the sexist belief that female candidates are more likely to lose. And Mr. Biden has courted the front-runner image by refusing to engage with his primary rivals and singularly focusing on Mr. Trump.
These political dynamics will challenge the muscle of the Democratic Party’s left wing, which is desperate to see a nominee who embraces liberal ideas and engages with activists.These political dynamics will challenge the muscle of the Democratic Party’s left wing, which is desperate to see a nominee who embraces liberal ideas and engages with activists.
“This is what we’re going to test,” said Faiz Shakir, the campaign manager for Mr. Sanders. “Where are people at?”“This is what we’re going to test,” said Faiz Shakir, the campaign manager for Mr. Sanders. “Where are people at?”
In private conversations, organizers at liberal political groups say Mr. Biden’s entry has helped clarify any lingering doubts: A steep uphill climb lies ahead, and victory is not guaranteed.In private conversations, organizers at liberal political groups say Mr. Biden’s entry has helped clarify any lingering doubts: A steep uphill climb lies ahead, and victory is not guaranteed.
“This is the reality,” said Matt Morrison, executive director of Working America, a labor-focused organizing group. “As this campaign unfolds and as this nomination process unfolds, whoever succeeds in this death match” will be seen as the candidate who showed “the path to victory in the Democratic Party.”“This is the reality,” said Matt Morrison, executive director of Working America, a labor-focused organizing group. “As this campaign unfolds and as this nomination process unfolds, whoever succeeds in this death match” will be seen as the candidate who showed “the path to victory in the Democratic Party.”
Maurice Mitchell, national director for the Working Families Party, said if candidates who back progressive ideas uniformly struggle in 2020, moderate Democrats and party leadership may take it as a sign that signature issues like “Medicare for All” can be ignored without consequences.Maurice Mitchell, national director for the Working Families Party, said if candidates who back progressive ideas uniformly struggle in 2020, moderate Democrats and party leadership may take it as a sign that signature issues like “Medicare for All” can be ignored without consequences.
He cautioned moderate Democrats, however, against using Mr. Biden’s early lead as a reason to take a premature victory lap.He cautioned moderate Democrats, however, against using Mr. Biden’s early lead as a reason to take a premature victory lap.
“At this point in the cycle, anybody that tells you that they know what the outcome would be is either working for a candidate, has endorsed the candidate or is lying to you,” Mr. Mitchell said.“At this point in the cycle, anybody that tells you that they know what the outcome would be is either working for a candidate, has endorsed the candidate or is lying to you,” Mr. Mitchell said.
The left flank of the Democratic Party faces unique obstacles during this presidential primary, even with the megaphone of Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, the policy ideas of Ms. Warren and the grass-roots energy of Mr. Sanders.The left flank of the Democratic Party faces unique obstacles during this presidential primary, even with the megaphone of Ms. Ocasio-Cortez, the policy ideas of Ms. Warren and the grass-roots energy of Mr. Sanders.
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They are up against not only those who dismiss their policy goals as unrealistic, but also a perception in some corners of the Democratic electorate that defeating Mr. Trump is paramount — and that that goal is somehow at odds with embracing disruptive ideas or structural policy change.They are up against not only those who dismiss their policy goals as unrealistic, but also a perception in some corners of the Democratic electorate that defeating Mr. Trump is paramount — and that that goal is somehow at odds with embracing disruptive ideas or structural policy change.
This idea, that embracing progressive change and defeating Mr. Trump are in conflict, is often pushed by Republicans, who have long argued that Democrats have trended too leftward for the American public.This idea, that embracing progressive change and defeating Mr. Trump are in conflict, is often pushed by Republicans, who have long argued that Democrats have trended too leftward for the American public.
Public opinion polls show broad support for issues like climate change prevention or universal health care. But in a recent Harvard-Harris poll, a plurality of Democrats identified as “Obama Democrats,” which may be a challenge for candidates like Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders, who have tried to paint the incrementalist policies of that era as insufficient.Public opinion polls show broad support for issues like climate change prevention or universal health care. But in a recent Harvard-Harris poll, a plurality of Democrats identified as “Obama Democrats,” which may be a challenge for candidates like Ms. Warren and Mr. Sanders, who have tried to paint the incrementalist policies of that era as insufficient.
Moderate Democrats, particularly in Washington, have sought to cast progressives as a noisy but powerless force. “Twitter is not real life” has become a rallying cry, meant to imply that people like Ms. Ocasio-Cortez or Mr. Sanders have exerted undue influence on the party’s direction.Moderate Democrats, particularly in Washington, have sought to cast progressives as a noisy but powerless force. “Twitter is not real life” has become a rallying cry, meant to imply that people like Ms. Ocasio-Cortez or Mr. Sanders have exerted undue influence on the party’s direction.
“Democrats need a message and an agenda that can unite the broadest possible coalition to defeat Donald Trump in 2020,” said one statement on the website for Third Way, a political organization focused on building a Democratic Party that sticks to more centrist principles. “The path to power wasn’t built on a Sanders-style agenda.”“Democrats need a message and an agenda that can unite the broadest possible coalition to defeat Donald Trump in 2020,” said one statement on the website for Third Way, a political organization focused on building a Democratic Party that sticks to more centrist principles. “The path to power wasn’t built on a Sanders-style agenda.”
Yvette Simpson, chief executive officer of the progressive grass-roots group Democracy for America, said the idea that embracing progressive policies would help Mr. Trump win was a Republican narrative with little backing. Yvette Simpson, chief executive officer of the progressive grass-roots group Democracy for America, said the idea that embracing progressive policies would help Mr. Trump win was a Republican narrative with little backing. She said she believed the entire party had moved leftward, noting that even Mr. Biden had announced his campaign would reject money from lobbyists and corporate PACs. (Mr. Biden still has significant backing from wealthy Democratic donors, and he held a high-dollar fund-raiser on his first day in the presidential race.)
She said she believed the entire party had moved leftward, noting that even Mr. Biden had announced his campaign would reject money from lobbyists and corporate PACs. (Mr. Biden still has significant backing from wealthy Democratic donors, and he held a high-dollar fund-raiser on his first day in the presidential race.)
“Biden’s ability to win should be measured against whether he excites the left of the party,” she said. “Because if he doesn’t do that — even if he wins the nomination — he won’t win the race.”“Biden’s ability to win should be measured against whether he excites the left of the party,” she said. “Because if he doesn’t do that — even if he wins the nomination — he won’t win the race.”
It comes back to a fundamental schism among Democratic candidates over whether it is more important to win over voters lost to Mr. Trump and Republicans or to motivate the Democrats who sat out the 2016 election, including those who are younger and people of color.It comes back to a fundamental schism among Democratic candidates over whether it is more important to win over voters lost to Mr. Trump and Republicans or to motivate the Democrats who sat out the 2016 election, including those who are younger and people of color.
Neil Sroka, a spokesman for Democracy for America, said it would be a mistake to view the primary as a referendum on progressives. “The establishment is the establishment because they have the lion’s share of the power within the Democratic Party,” he said.Neil Sroka, a spokesman for Democracy for America, said it would be a mistake to view the primary as a referendum on progressives. “The establishment is the establishment because they have the lion’s share of the power within the Democratic Party,” he said.
Maria Svart, the national director for the Democratic Socialists of America, said her organization views its insurgency against Democrats as a long-term struggle, and that it exists outside of any particular candidate or election cycle.Maria Svart, the national director for the Democratic Socialists of America, said her organization views its insurgency against Democrats as a long-term struggle, and that it exists outside of any particular candidate or election cycle.
“People are sick and tired of being ignored by both parties, in all states in this country, and are looking for a way that they can make an impact,” Ms. Svart said. “That’s why we focus on grass-roots organizing.”“People are sick and tired of being ignored by both parties, in all states in this country, and are looking for a way that they can make an impact,” Ms. Svart said. “That’s why we focus on grass-roots organizing.”
At the Brooklyn gathering of Ms. Warren’s supporters, attendees were cleareyed on the challenges ahead. At the Brooklyn gathering of Ms. Warren’s supporters, attendees were cleareyed on the challenges ahead. They loved Ms. Warren, they said, as they snacked on free pizza and relished the opportunity to take selfies with a cardboard cutout of the presidential candidate. But they believed, as one supporter put it, that Mr. Biden represented the country’s “comfort zone.”
They loved Ms. Warren, they said, as they snacked on free pizza and relished the opportunity to take selfies with a cardboard cutout of the presidential candidate. But they believed, as one supporter put it, that Mr. Biden represented the country’s “comfort zone.”
“Joe Biden is not going to change. He’s going to rest on his laurels,” said Mallory Muratore, 25. “It’s a little scary, because we need people to look past that.”“Joe Biden is not going to change. He’s going to rest on his laurels,” said Mallory Muratore, 25. “It’s a little scary, because we need people to look past that.”
Steve Parry, 36, said the primary was an essential opportunity for progressives to prove they could “win something.”Steve Parry, 36, said the primary was an essential opportunity for progressives to prove they could “win something.”
“We’ve been showing up,” he said, “but now we need results.”“We’ve been showing up,” he said, “but now we need results.”