This article is from the source 'guardian' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/31/lib-dem-leader-party-comeback-brexit-jo-swinson-ed-davey
The article has changed 3 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 1 | Version 2 |
|---|---|
| What the new Lib Dem leader needs to do to make the party’s comeback last | What the new Lib Dem leader needs to do to make the party’s comeback last |
| (30 days later) | |
| When Vince Cable set a date for stepping aside as Lib Dem leader, back in March, it seemed clear that the contest to replace him would be about saving the party from oblivion. It was lagging far behind in the polls, still suffering from its poor performance in the 2017 general election, and everyone was talking about the terrible threat it faced from a brand new centre party, Change UK. The task of the next leader was big, but it was also fairly simple: to be a fresh face, and to persuade Change UK and the Greens to make pacts with them. | When Vince Cable set a date for stepping aside as Lib Dem leader, back in March, it seemed clear that the contest to replace him would be about saving the party from oblivion. It was lagging far behind in the polls, still suffering from its poor performance in the 2017 general election, and everyone was talking about the terrible threat it faced from a brand new centre party, Change UK. The task of the next leader was big, but it was also fairly simple: to be a fresh face, and to persuade Change UK and the Greens to make pacts with them. |
| They have spent nine years recovering from the last time they gained some traction with voters | They have spent nine years recovering from the last time they gained some traction with voters |
| Things have changed. The party stormed to second place in the European elections last week – following gains in local council elections at the start of May – and on Thursday it topped a YouGov poll of Westminster voting intentions for the first time since 2010 – at 24%. Change UK, meanwhile, was demolished. These sorts of results always come with health warnings: the European elections will not necessarily mean much for the next general one (voters tend to use them for protest purposes), and polls are unreliable. But these two events show at least that the Lib Dems are capable of picking up the kind of momentum you might expect from the largest remain-backing party occupying an abandoned centre ground. The European parliament vote has been enough to rattle other parties: remain-backing Labour MPs are now publicly pressuring their leader over the results. And all this amounts to something a little out of the Lib Dem comfort zone: an opportunity. | Things have changed. The party stormed to second place in the European elections last week – following gains in local council elections at the start of May – and on Thursday it topped a YouGov poll of Westminster voting intentions for the first time since 2010 – at 24%. Change UK, meanwhile, was demolished. These sorts of results always come with health warnings: the European elections will not necessarily mean much for the next general one (voters tend to use them for protest purposes), and polls are unreliable. But these two events show at least that the Lib Dems are capable of picking up the kind of momentum you might expect from the largest remain-backing party occupying an abandoned centre ground. The European parliament vote has been enough to rattle other parties: remain-backing Labour MPs are now publicly pressuring their leader over the results. And all this amounts to something a little out of the Lib Dem comfort zone: an opportunity. |
| A great EU election result for the Lib Dems. Now the hard work starts | David Boyle | A great EU election result for the Lib Dems. Now the hard work starts | David Boyle |
| The Lib Dems are survivors, or “comeback kids”, as Layla Moran, who dropped out of the leadership race, recently put it. But they also tend not to come back all that far. They have spent nine years recovering from the last time they gained some traction with voters. And for the prospective leaders, Jo Swinson and Ed Davey, this puts the pressure on. The Lib Dem surge is theirs to lose. | The Lib Dems are survivors, or “comeback kids”, as Layla Moran, who dropped out of the leadership race, recently put it. But they also tend not to come back all that far. They have spent nine years recovering from the last time they gained some traction with voters. And for the prospective leaders, Jo Swinson and Ed Davey, this puts the pressure on. The Lib Dem surge is theirs to lose. |
| Brexit is likely to be the context for politics over the next few years, which gives Lib Dems a solid advantage as the party of remain (as long as Labour continues to prevaricate). Here the job of the next leader is simple: keep the slogan. But as the Lib Dems start being taken more seriously, they will have to answer other questions, too. | Brexit is likely to be the context for politics over the next few years, which gives Lib Dems a solid advantage as the party of remain (as long as Labour continues to prevaricate). Here the job of the next leader is simple: keep the slogan. But as the Lib Dems start being taken more seriously, they will have to answer other questions, too. |
| For starters they will have to show they have finally shaken off the legacy of the coalition years with David Cameron, and their hand in implementing austerity – a betrayal of trust that has kept them out of contention since the drubbing they got in the 2015 general election. Both Swinson and Davey were in the coalition, and their first task must be to work out what to say about those years. Here they have taken different decisions – Swinson has said that the party must “own the failures” of that time, while Davey says the problem was that they “played the politics wrong”: he believes they got no credit for the good things they did in government and were blamed for the bad. | For starters they will have to show they have finally shaken off the legacy of the coalition years with David Cameron, and their hand in implementing austerity – a betrayal of trust that has kept them out of contention since the drubbing they got in the 2015 general election. Both Swinson and Davey were in the coalition, and their first task must be to work out what to say about those years. Here they have taken different decisions – Swinson has said that the party must “own the failures” of that time, while Davey says the problem was that they “played the politics wrong”: he believes they got no credit for the good things they did in government and were blamed for the bad. |
| The Liberal Democrat leader is chosen by party members in a postal ballot. To become a candidate, an MP must secure nominations from at least 10% of the Liberal Democrat MPs in parliament, and from at least 200 members from more than 20 local parties. | The Liberal Democrat leader is chosen by party members in a postal ballot. To become a candidate, an MP must secure nominations from at least 10% of the Liberal Democrat MPs in parliament, and from at least 200 members from more than 20 local parties. |
| The ballot is usually carried out using the single transferable vote system. Voters rank their choice of leader in preference. After the first preference votes are counted, if no candidate has over 50% of the vote, then the second preference votes of those who cast their vote for the least popular candidate are reallocated, and so on, until somebody has a majority. | |
| In the 2019 race however, only Jo Swinson and Ed Davey are running, so the ballot will be a straight head-to-head contest. | |
| At first glance, Swinson’s strategy seems a better one as it is cleaner: it won’t attract interrogation. But then she has an advantage: Davey, as a former secretary of state, was more senior in the coalition years. “He struggles not to defend his record, as any former minister wants to be proud of what they have done,” a Lib Dem source told me. Swinson, who occupied various junior roles, “suffers less from the mindset problem”. | At first glance, Swinson’s strategy seems a better one as it is cleaner: it won’t attract interrogation. But then she has an advantage: Davey, as a former secretary of state, was more senior in the coalition years. “He struggles not to defend his record, as any former minister wants to be proud of what they have done,” a Lib Dem source told me. Swinson, who occupied various junior roles, “suffers less from the mindset problem”. |
| Alastair Campbell says Labour expulsion was discriminatory | Alastair Campbell says Labour expulsion was discriminatory |
| The second problem is how to answer questions about future coalitions. This is, of course, tricky: it is difficult to imagine the Lib Dems getting anywhere near power without being prepared to be kingmakers. But being honest about this won’t help them, especially when their views are now so opposed to those of the two main parties. Davey has solved the dilemma for now by saying he wouldn’t join with either. The more pragmatic Swinson has decided to hedge her bets, leading to an uncomfortable few minutes on the Today programme on Friday morning, saying she “couldn’t envisage” a coalition, but refusing to rule one out. | The second problem is how to answer questions about future coalitions. This is, of course, tricky: it is difficult to imagine the Lib Dems getting anywhere near power without being prepared to be kingmakers. But being honest about this won’t help them, especially when their views are now so opposed to those of the two main parties. Davey has solved the dilemma for now by saying he wouldn’t join with either. The more pragmatic Swinson has decided to hedge her bets, leading to an uncomfortable few minutes on the Today programme on Friday morning, saying she “couldn’t envisage” a coalition, but refusing to rule one out. |
| There is also the fact that the party leader must come up with some policies other than remaining in the EU. Both candidates have so far talked about green issues – Davey has a plan to “decarbonise capitalism”, Swinson wants to “put people and the planet first”. Climate is increasingly important to voters, especially the young, but still this reads like a party that hasn’t realised the Greens may not be its main competition. Britain faces many other crises: social care, transport, housing, the NHS. If the Lib Dems want to seize this opportunity they will have to start talking about these problems, too. | There is also the fact that the party leader must come up with some policies other than remaining in the EU. Both candidates have so far talked about green issues – Davey has a plan to “decarbonise capitalism”, Swinson wants to “put people and the planet first”. Climate is increasingly important to voters, especially the young, but still this reads like a party that hasn’t realised the Greens may not be its main competition. Britain faces many other crises: social care, transport, housing, the NHS. If the Lib Dems want to seize this opportunity they will have to start talking about these problems, too. |
| • Martha Gill is a political journalist and former lobby correspondent | • Martha Gill is a political journalist and former lobby correspondent |
| Liberal Democrats | Liberal Democrats |
| Opinion | Opinion |
| Brexit | Brexit |
| Liberal-Conservative coalition | Liberal-Conservative coalition |
| Austerity | Austerity |
| Vince Cable | Vince Cable |
| Jo Swinson | Jo Swinson |
| Ed Davey | Ed Davey |
| comment | comment |
| Share on Facebook | Share on Facebook |
| Share on Twitter | Share on Twitter |
| Share via Email | Share via Email |
| Share on LinkedIn | Share on LinkedIn |
| Share on Pinterest | Share on Pinterest |
| Share on WhatsApp | Share on WhatsApp |
| Share on Messenger | Share on Messenger |
| Reuse this content | Reuse this content |