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| In the Kentucky Governor’s Race, It’s an Unpopular Man vs. an Unpopular Party | In the Kentucky Governor’s Race, It’s an Unpopular Man vs. an Unpopular Party |
| (about 5 hours later) | |
| PIKEVILLE, Ky. — Under normal circumstances, the Kentucky governor’s race would be all but over except for the concession phone call. The incumbent running for re-election this year is a conservative Republican in a state that has recently become as red as hot coal, where unemployment is as low as it has been in nearly two decades and most of the voters are still crazy about the governor’s ally, President Trump. | PIKEVILLE, Ky. — Under normal circumstances, the Kentucky governor’s race would be all but over except for the concession phone call. The incumbent running for re-election this year is a conservative Republican in a state that has recently become as red as hot coal, where unemployment is as low as it has been in nearly two decades and most of the voters are still crazy about the governor’s ally, President Trump. |
| But. | But. |
| “This is not a normal governor’s race,” said Paul Patton, a former Democratic governor, sitting in his memento-filled office at the University of Pikeville. “We’ve got an abnormal governor.” | |
| There are reasons that Matt Bevin, a millionaire businessman who stomped into Kentucky politics from the right, is by some polls the least popular governor in the United States. His proposed cuts to government services have been steep and his plans to tackle the state’s long underfunded pension program have been seen by many as a betrayal. But the main issue with Mr. Bevin, acknowledged even by his supporters, is not what he has done but how he has done it. | |
| He has tangled with journalists, union representatives and Democrats, but he has been startlingly harsh on less typical targets — like public school teachers. After thousands of educators walked out last year in protest of budget cuts and proposed changes to teacher pensions, Mr. Bevin accused protesters of having a “thug mentality” and called them “selfish” and “ignorant.” | |
| He blamed those involved in the walkouts for hypothetical poisonings and sexual assaults as well as a very real shooting. Voters in focus groups recalled these insults virtually verbatim, one Republican official said. Directed at public servants with whom practically everyone has had personal relationships, the affront posed a political problem. | |
| Backers of Mr. Bevin say that he is simply taking on long-neglected problems, the boggy legacy of nearly a century of Democratic governance, and that a little roughness is tolerable, even necessary at times. The fact that he has so few friends in the State Capitol, they suggest, is a sign he is doing something right. | Backers of Mr. Bevin say that he is simply taking on long-neglected problems, the boggy legacy of nearly a century of Democratic governance, and that a little roughness is tolerable, even necessary at times. The fact that he has so few friends in the State Capitol, they suggest, is a sign he is doing something right. |
| “We don’t have a swamp here, but we’ve had one government for 100 years now basically,” said Tom Watson, the mayor of Owensboro, in western Kentucky. “We’re left with some things you’ve got to try and clean up a bit, and that makes people upset.” | |
| But others, including many within his own party, are less forgiving. In the recent Republican primary, Mr. Bevin won 52 percent of the vote, finishing just 13 points ahead of a Republican legislator who has been in the State House for less than a year and a half. | But others, including many within his own party, are less forgiving. In the recent Republican primary, Mr. Bevin won 52 percent of the vote, finishing just 13 points ahead of a Republican legislator who has been in the State House for less than a year and a half. |
| In the Democratic primary, Andy Beshear, the state attorney general, pulled out a win with 38 percent of the vote, beating out a more conservative candidate and a more liberal one. Not all Democrats agreed that Mr. Beshear would be the best candidate to beat Mr. Bevin. But Mr. Beshear can make the case that he has already battled with the governor as much, and as fiercely, as anyone. | In the Democratic primary, Andy Beshear, the state attorney general, pulled out a win with 38 percent of the vote, beating out a more conservative candidate and a more liberal one. Not all Democrats agreed that Mr. Beshear would be the best candidate to beat Mr. Bevin. But Mr. Beshear can make the case that he has already battled with the governor as much, and as fiercely, as anyone. |
| As attorney general, Mr. Beshear has filed multiple lawsuits against the Bevin administration, over service cuts, the pension overhaul and the governor’s attempts to find and punish teachers who staged sickout protests. Mr. Bevin, meanwhile, has frequently attributed the state’s problems, like the drastically underfunded pensions, to the neglect and mismanagement of previous administrations — and even ordered an investigation of the administration of Steve Beshear, his immediate predecessor, a Democrat who served two terms and also happens to be Andy Beshear’s father. | |
| It would be difficult to imagine a starker contrast, one that will surely be drawn in a campaign that many expect to be nastier and more divisive than any in recent memory. That, to many, is the conundrum. | It would be difficult to imagine a starker contrast, one that will surely be drawn in a campaign that many expect to be nastier and more divisive than any in recent memory. That, to many, is the conundrum. |
| “Sometimes I feel like a man without a party,” said Reggie Dickerson, 54, a pipe fitter from eastern Kentucky. Mr. Dickerson, as a strong union man, was a longtime Democrat, but switched his registration to Republican over the issue of same-sex marriage. Then he switched back to support the conservative Democrat in this year’s primary. And he is now switching back again, largely over the issue of abortion. | “Sometimes I feel like a man without a party,” said Reggie Dickerson, 54, a pipe fitter from eastern Kentucky. Mr. Dickerson, as a strong union man, was a longtime Democrat, but switched his registration to Republican over the issue of same-sex marriage. Then he switched back to support the conservative Democrat in this year’s primary. And he is now switching back again, largely over the issue of abortion. |
| “An east Kentucky Democrat is not even close to a Louisville or Lexington Democrat,” he said, contrasting his evangelical convictions with the secular outlook of many Democrats in the state’s big cities. | “An east Kentucky Democrat is not even close to a Louisville or Lexington Democrat,” he said, contrasting his evangelical convictions with the secular outlook of many Democrats in the state’s big cities. |
| And how close does he see himself to a Republican like Mr. Bevin, who champions right-to-work laws and the privatization of government services? “Not real close either,” Mr. Dickerson said. | And how close does he see himself to a Republican like Mr. Bevin, who champions right-to-work laws and the privatization of government services? “Not real close either,” Mr. Dickerson said. |
| The current era of all-or-nothing partisanship is an awkward fit for Kentucky. It would be easy to take the state these days for an unquestioned stronghold for Republicans, given their supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature and the fact that Republicans hold all but one of the state’s seats in Congress. | The current era of all-or-nothing partisanship is an awkward fit for Kentucky. It would be easy to take the state these days for an unquestioned stronghold for Republicans, given their supermajorities in both houses of the Legislature and the fact that Republicans hold all but one of the state’s seats in Congress. |
| But the thoroughness of the Republican takeover was recent; registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the state and in even some of the strongest pro-Trump counties, the rural county courthouses remain all-Democrat shops. As in many Southern, or at least Southern-adjacent, states, the Democratic label is fine for the county clerk but quickly loses its luster the higher the elected office. | But the thoroughness of the Republican takeover was recent; registered Democrats still outnumber Republicans in the state and in even some of the strongest pro-Trump counties, the rural county courthouses remain all-Democrat shops. As in many Southern, or at least Southern-adjacent, states, the Democratic label is fine for the county clerk but quickly loses its luster the higher the elected office. |
| Given this, Mr. Beshear relentlessly downplays party differences and highlights the bipartisanship to be found among those who have been insulted by Mr. Bevin. | Given this, Mr. Beshear relentlessly downplays party differences and highlights the bipartisanship to be found among those who have been insulted by Mr. Bevin. |
| “This governor,” Mr. Beshear said in a brief interview at a United Auto Workers local headquarters in Louisville, where he was receiving the group’s endorsement, “it’s not that he’s been acting in the right as in left versus right. He’s been acting in the wrong.” | “This governor,” Mr. Beshear said in a brief interview at a United Auto Workers local headquarters in Louisville, where he was receiving the group’s endorsement, “it’s not that he’s been acting in the right as in left versus right. He’s been acting in the wrong.” |
| Still, Mr. Bevin’s party identification is undeniably an advantage in the state, and many believe that, along with a good economy and a few well-timed Trump rallies, it will most likely be enough. In a brief statement, Mr. Bevin’s campaign manager pointed out that the governor had support from Mr. Trump while Mr. Beshear “brags about voting for Hillary Clinton and touts endorsements from radical pro-abortion groups,” a reference to Mr. Beshear’s recent backing by Naral Pro-Choice America. | Still, Mr. Bevin’s party identification is undeniably an advantage in the state, and many believe that, along with a good economy and a few well-timed Trump rallies, it will most likely be enough. In a brief statement, Mr. Bevin’s campaign manager pointed out that the governor had support from Mr. Trump while Mr. Beshear “brags about voting for Hillary Clinton and touts endorsements from radical pro-abortion groups,” a reference to Mr. Beshear’s recent backing by Naral Pro-Choice America. |
| Nearly everyone, detractors and fans like, compares Mr. Bevin to Mr. Trump, a link that Mr. Bevin is happy to accentuate, featuring multiple photographs of him alongside the president in his first 60-second ad. | Nearly everyone, detractors and fans like, compares Mr. Bevin to Mr. Trump, a link that Mr. Bevin is happy to accentuate, featuring multiple photographs of him alongside the president in his first 60-second ad. |
| But what many seem to love about Trump — the pugnaciousness, the go-it-alone attitude, the indifference to the normal political process — are precisely the same things that turn some off Mr. Bevin. | But what many seem to love about Trump — the pugnaciousness, the go-it-alone attitude, the indifference to the normal political process — are precisely the same things that turn some off Mr. Bevin. |
| “The national level is farther away than it is for me right here,” is how Karen Howard, 68, a retired schoolteacher in western Kentucky, accounted for the different receptions. As a Republican, Ms. Howard said she had “probably” voted for Mr. Bevin in 2015 but this year would vote for “Bobo the clown” before she voted for his re-election. | “The national level is farther away than it is for me right here,” is how Karen Howard, 68, a retired schoolteacher in western Kentucky, accounted for the different receptions. As a Republican, Ms. Howard said she had “probably” voted for Mr. Bevin in 2015 but this year would vote for “Bobo the clown” before she voted for his re-election. |
| Others are not so sure the governor and president are seen all that differently. At a McDonald’s in Richmond, a few blocks from the arena where a 2018 Trump rally arguably ensured the congressional victory of Representative Andy Barr, a group of retired men of varying political affiliations drank coffee and handicapped the governor’s race. The teachers could bring about Mr. Bevin’s defeat but they never stick together, one said. Bad things would probably come out on Mr. Beshear’s background, suggested another. | Others are not so sure the governor and president are seen all that differently. At a McDonald’s in Richmond, a few blocks from the arena where a 2018 Trump rally arguably ensured the congressional victory of Representative Andy Barr, a group of retired men of varying political affiliations drank coffee and handicapped the governor’s race. The teachers could bring about Mr. Bevin’s defeat but they never stick together, one said. Bad things would probably come out on Mr. Beshear’s background, suggested another. |
| They all agreed that Mr. Trump’s appearances at rallies would help Mr. Bevin. But Trump-like behavior: That was a different matter. | They all agreed that Mr. Trump’s appearances at rallies would help Mr. Bevin. But Trump-like behavior: That was a different matter. |
| “It hurts both of them, Trump and Bevin,” said Jay Bruner, a real estate agent and self-described political independent, echoing the thoughts of others. “If they’d just shut up and govern they’d be good. You can’t just insult everybody.” | “It hurts both of them, Trump and Bevin,” said Jay Bruner, a real estate agent and self-described political independent, echoing the thoughts of others. “If they’d just shut up and govern they’d be good. You can’t just insult everybody.” |