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Amber Rudd warns Tory leadership candidates against backing no-deal Brexit Amber Rudd warns Tory leadership candidates against backing no-deal Brexit
(3 days later)
The next Conservative leader must immediately extend Britain’s EU membership and draw up a new Brexit deal with Labour MPs, a key powerbroker in the party’s leadership race has demanded.The next Conservative leader must immediately extend Britain’s EU membership and draw up a new Brexit deal with Labour MPs, a key powerbroker in the party’s leadership race has demanded.
In a significant intervention that will be seen as a warning to candidates embracing a no-deal Brexit, Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, who is regarded as the leading pro-European voice in the cabinet, calls on all contenders to concede that Britain will not leave at the end of October and start work on a new deal with Brussels.In a significant intervention that will be seen as a warning to candidates embracing a no-deal Brexit, Amber Rudd, the work and pensions secretary, who is regarded as the leading pro-European voice in the cabinet, calls on all contenders to concede that Britain will not leave at the end of October and start work on a new deal with Brussels.
Writing for the Observer, she warns candidates they will lose should they “enter into another battle with parliament over no deal on 31 October”. She says the new leader will have a “brief opportunity to reset the political agenda” with the EU, which should be used to craft a deal that enough backbench Labour MPs would back.Writing for the Observer, she warns candidates they will lose should they “enter into another battle with parliament over no deal on 31 October”. She says the new leader will have a “brief opportunity to reset the political agenda” with the EU, which should be used to craft a deal that enough backbench Labour MPs would back.
Parliament will find a way to insist we don’t leave without a dealParliament will find a way to insist we don’t leave without a deal
“We need to start being honest,” she writes. “The starting point is that we are not leaving on 31 October with a deal – parliament will block a no-deal Brexit, and there isn’t time to do a revised deal.“We need to start being honest,” she writes. “The starting point is that we are not leaving on 31 October with a deal – parliament will block a no-deal Brexit, and there isn’t time to do a revised deal.
“Many good Conservative colleagues will raise their hands in despair at my suggestion that we engage with Labour backbenchers but I know there are many who wish to deliver on the result of the referendum.”“Many good Conservative colleagues will raise their hands in despair at my suggestion that we engage with Labour backbenchers but I know there are many who wish to deliver on the result of the referendum.”
The environment secretary is to pitch himself as a “unity candidate” capable of attracting leavers and remainers, as he formally declared his candidacy saying: “I believe that I’m ready to unite the Conservative and Unionist party, ready to deliver Brexit and ready to lead this great country.” But robust Brexiters in particular dislike the fact that he stayed loyal even in the final days of the crumbling May regime. The environment secretary’s campaign plan was knocked off course by revelations about drug-taking.
He has sought to regain his place as the leading ‘Stop Boris’ with a series of policy pledges, from a new social insurance to pay for social care, to changing human rights law to prevent service personnel being pursued over historical crimes. He has better Brexiter credentials than Hunt, is liked by the moderate wing of the party, and is a better orator than almost any other candidate.
He has played up his senior role in the Vote Leave campaign, saying he had ‘led from the front’ because he believed it was ‘the right thing to do, at a critical moment in our history’.
On Brexit he has publicly discussed the idea of extending the Brexit deadline slightly beyond 31 October, if needed to finalise a deal. Has not completely ruled out a no-deal Brexit.
He received 37 votes in the first round, coming third.He received 37 votes in the first round, coming third.
Fears that the foreign secretary would be another overly woolly compromise choice were hardly assuaged when after a set-piece speech he seemed unable to outline why his brand of Conservatism might appeal to voters. Hunt has been backed by Liam Fox.  The foreign secretary has made the case that he is the most serious and experienced would-be leader, in an apparent rebuke to his main rival, Boris Johnson. 
On Brexit he believes a new deal is possible by 31 October, and would send a new, cross-party negotiating team to Brussels. Would countenance leaving EU without a deal, but has warned that could lead to a confidence vote and potentially an election.
Hunt’s problem is he is seen as the continuity candidate, the safe pair of hands, when colleagues are starting to see the attraction of a new style. 
He received 43 votes in the first round, placing him second.He received 43 votes in the first round, placing him second.
The home secretary still has the same weaknesses: he is an uninspiring speaker and some worry he is too fond of headline-grabbing, illiberal political gestures. But he is almost as ubiquitous as Liz Truss, and clearly believes this is his time. Javid struggled to define himself in the first days of the campaign, not a fresh face, not a safe pair of hands, or a true Brexit believer. But his campaign picked up, with the endorsement of popular Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, a polished leadership video telling the moving story of his background, and a lively launch speech. It was still only enough to place him fifth, though.
On Brexit, Javid says he wants to leave with a deal, but has talked down the idea of another extension and would be prepared to opt for no deal.
He is expected to make a new push to define himself as the change candidate who can talk to Tory voters in new places – though he may also be tempted to drop out to tuck in behind one of the frontrunners. It is hard to see how he could make it into the final two from this position.
He received 23 votes in the first round.He received 23 votes in the first round.
The out-and-out favourite, so popular with the Tory grassroots that it would be hard for MPs to not make Johnson one of the final two. He has been relatively quiet recently, beyond his regular Telegraph column, but this is very deliberate. The former foreign secretary already has enough support to progress through to the members’ ballot. All Johnson needs to do is sit tight, keep his MPs sweet and try not to ruin it for himself. He has kept a low profile in the media and stayed in the tearooms and in his office, methodically talking round colleagues. His team know that one negative news cycle because of an off-guard comment could see his star plummet – and Johnson is more prone to those than most.
On Brexit he has promised the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, come what may, even without a deal if a new agreement cannot be reached in time.
Johnson won the first round with 114 votes.Johnson won the first round with 114 votes.
The former work and pensions secretary, who quit last year over May’s Brexit plans, has launched her own in-party campaign group/leadership vehicle called Blue Collar Conservatism, promising to make the party more amenable to voters in deprived communities – mainly through a promise to deliver a strong Brexit and policies such as diverting much of the foreign aid budget to schools and police. The former Brexit secretary has had a rocky start to his campaign after telling broadcasters he was not a feminist and missing out on a slew of endorsements from the Brexiter right of the party, which instead went to Boris Johnson
On Brexit Raab has said he would actively seek a no-deal departure, and has repeatedly refused to rule out proroguing parliament to make sure MPs could not block this. ‘We’ve been humiliated as a country in these talks with the EU,’ he said. ‘We’re divided at home, and demeaned abroad.’
His limited chance of success really now depends on whether Johnson stumbles and a more moderate candidate gains momentum, in which case Raab could be the beneficiary.
Raab got 27 votes in the first round.Raab got 27 votes in the first round.
Few things say “would-be leader in waiting” like a kitchen photoshoot with your spouse, and the former Brexit secretary duly obliged with this imageawash with tasteful pastel hues. He formally launched his bid in the Mail on Sunday. Among the more core constituency of Conservative MPs, Raab has been pushing hard, as has his semi-official “Ready for Raab” Twitter feed. Stewart said he was ‘over the moon’ to scrape into the next round of voting with 19 votes, one-sixth of Johnson’s tally, and insisted afterwards he could still make the final two. He still has a mountain to climb to get into the next round, where he will need to get another 14 endorsements – and avoid coming last – or he will be automatically eliminated.
The safe money would say it is likely that he will not make it through the next round, yet it is just about possible that his mounting popularity with the public could convince colleagues to take a gamble on him if they hope to find an outsider with a chance of beating Johnson.
On Brexit he is by far the softest of the candidates – he so vehemently rules out no deal that he has discussed holding an impromptu parliament elsewhere in Westminster if a new PM opted to prorogue the Commons.
Stewart got 19 votes in the first round.Stewart got 19 votes in the first round.
Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Andrea Leadsom, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and Esther McVey are among the candidates who have suggested they could back no deal. Rudd’s remarks come after she met Johnson, the frontrunner, in an attempt to find common ground and persuade him to back away from attempting to leave with no deal at the end of October .Boris Johnson, Dominic Raab, Andrea Leadsom, Jeremy Hunt, Sajid Javid and Esther McVey are among the candidates who have suggested they could back no deal. Rudd’s remarks come after she met Johnson, the frontrunner, in an attempt to find common ground and persuade him to back away from attempting to leave with no deal at the end of October .
The pair parted ways with Johnson still committed to leaving the EU without any further Brexit extension, whether a deal could be agreed or not. It is understood that Rudd could not commit to serving in a top cabinet job should he win and lead Britain out of the EU with no deal.The pair parted ways with Johnson still committed to leaving the EU without any further Brexit extension, whether a deal could be agreed or not. It is understood that Rudd could not commit to serving in a top cabinet job should he win and lead Britain out of the EU with no deal.
Michael Gove, who launched his first campaign video this weekend, is pressing to become the candidate best-placed to avoid no deal. It leaves party moderates wrestling over whether they can bring themselves to back Johnson. While many see him as less ideological than Raab and more capable of winning an election, his embrace of no deal is an insurmountable stumbling block for many.Michael Gove, who launched his first campaign video this weekend, is pressing to become the candidate best-placed to avoid no deal. It leaves party moderates wrestling over whether they can bring themselves to back Johnson. While many see him as less ideological than Raab and more capable of winning an election, his embrace of no deal is an insurmountable stumbling block for many.
“It’s all about making sure he is surrounded by sensible people,” said one MP who has decided to back Johnson.“It’s all about making sure he is surrounded by sensible people,” said one MP who has decided to back Johnson.
This week will see all the candidates appear at a hustings of the One Nation Caucus of moderate Tory MPs. Rudd calls on them to face up to the realities of the “Brexit puzzle”, adding: “It should go without saying that every candidate is patriotic. So being told to just ‘believe in Britain’ is not a substitute for engaging with the situation we find ourselves in.”This week will see all the candidates appear at a hustings of the One Nation Caucus of moderate Tory MPs. Rudd calls on them to face up to the realities of the “Brexit puzzle”, adding: “It should go without saying that every candidate is patriotic. So being told to just ‘believe in Britain’ is not a substitute for engaging with the situation we find ourselves in.”
It comes as moderates fear that the party is veering closer towards a no-deal Brexit under pressure from the success of Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. According to an Opinium poll for the Observer, the Brexit party has surged into first place for the first time in a Westminster poll. Its support increased by two points to 26%, with the Tories third on 17%.It comes as moderates fear that the party is veering closer towards a no-deal Brexit under pressure from the success of Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. According to an Opinium poll for the Observer, the Brexit party has surged into first place for the first time in a Westminster poll. Its support increased by two points to 26%, with the Tories third on 17%.
Such a result would see Farage form the biggest party in parliament, with the Tories losing hundreds of seats.Such a result would see Farage form the biggest party in parliament, with the Tories losing hundreds of seats.
Johnson has the strongest support among Conservative supporters to be the party’s next leader, the poll found. While 24% want Johnson, the other standout choice is Gove, with 14%.Johnson has the strongest support among Conservative supporters to be the party’s next leader, the poll found. While 24% want Johnson, the other standout choice is Gove, with 14%.
Meanwhile, there are continuing concerns that hardline Brexit supporters have been joining the Conservative party in order to have a vote in the forthcoming leadership election. Research conducted by the People’s Vote campaign for a second referendum has found dozens of Brexit party supporters who openly claim to have joined the Conservative party in order to vote in a leadership contest.Meanwhile, there are continuing concerns that hardline Brexit supporters have been joining the Conservative party in order to have a vote in the forthcoming leadership election. Research conducted by the People’s Vote campaign for a second referendum has found dozens of Brexit party supporters who openly claim to have joined the Conservative party in order to vote in a leadership contest.
Nick Boles, who faced a deselection attempt before leaving the Tories to sit as an “independent progressive conservative”, has claimed that there has been a “systematic operation of infiltration of the Conservative party by Ukip and Ukip sympathisers”.Nick Boles, who faced a deselection attempt before leaving the Tories to sit as an “independent progressive conservative”, has claimed that there has been a “systematic operation of infiltration of the Conservative party by Ukip and Ukip sympathisers”.
Yesterday, Bracknell Tory MP Phillip Lee, who backs a second referendum, lost a no-confidence vote among his local party. He issued a defiant statement, stating: “We will not be forced into taking a decision one way or the other by this orchestrated, destructive campaign from outside the party.”Yesterday, Bracknell Tory MP Phillip Lee, who backs a second referendum, lost a no-confidence vote among his local party. He issued a defiant statement, stating: “We will not be forced into taking a decision one way or the other by this orchestrated, destructive campaign from outside the party.”
The ConventionThe Convention
What’s wrong with British democracy and how to fix it will be the theme of The Convention on Tuesday 4 June at the Emmanuel Centre in Westminster, London, from 6.30-8.45pm.What’s wrong with British democracy and how to fix it will be the theme of The Convention on Tuesday 4 June at the Emmanuel Centre in Westminster, London, from 6.30-8.45pm.
In partnership with the Observer, a line-up of distinguished speakers will explore the grave threats faced by the British political system and the rule of law from dark money, social media and the failure to punish electoral wrongdoing.In partnership with the Observer, a line-up of distinguished speakers will explore the grave threats faced by the British political system and the rule of law from dark money, social media and the failure to punish electoral wrongdoing.
This groundbreaking event will feature a keynote from the award-winning Observer journalist Carole Cadwalladr, interventions from Dominic Grieve, Joanna Cherry and Stephen Kinnock, and a speech – with Q&A – from Lord Neuberger, until recently Britain’s most senior judge.This groundbreaking event will feature a keynote from the award-winning Observer journalist Carole Cadwalladr, interventions from Dominic Grieve, Joanna Cherry and Stephen Kinnock, and a speech – with Q&A – from Lord Neuberger, until recently Britain’s most senior judge.
Tickets on eventbrite.co.ukTickets on eventbrite.co.uk
Conservative leadershipConservative leadership
The ObserverThe Observer
Amber RuddAmber Rudd
ConservativesConservatives
BrexitBrexit
European UnionEuropean Union
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