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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/jun/05/majority-of-voters-think-boris-johnson-would-make-bad-pm-polling-expert
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| Majority of voters think Boris Johnson would make bad PM - polling expert | Majority of voters think Boris Johnson would make bad PM - polling expert |
| (about 4 hours later) | |
| Many voters have a “distinct antipathy” towards Boris Johnson, which could hamper his chances of winning a future general election even if he delivered Brexit, the Conservative peer and polling expert Robert Hayward has said. | Many voters have a “distinct antipathy” towards Boris Johnson, which could hamper his chances of winning a future general election even if he delivered Brexit, the Conservative peer and polling expert Robert Hayward has said. |
| Johnson is the overwhelming favourite in the race to succeed Theresa May, in which will the field of 11 candidates – with more likely to declare – will be whittled down to two over the next fortnight. | Johnson is the overwhelming favourite in the race to succeed Theresa May, in which will the field of 11 candidates – with more likely to declare – will be whittled down to two over the next fortnight. |
| After analysing a slew of recent polls on the parties and candidates, Hayward said a new Tory leader would not win a general election unless they were “transfer-friendly”. | After analysing a slew of recent polls on the parties and candidates, Hayward said a new Tory leader would not win a general election unless they were “transfer-friendly”. |
| “A Tory prime minister or leader can’t win without Brexiteers; but you actually can’t win without the people who don’t strongly identify with one side or the other, and are looking for good government,” he said. | “A Tory prime minister or leader can’t win without Brexiteers; but you actually can’t win without the people who don’t strongly identify with one side or the other, and are looking for good government,” he said. |
| He said that while Johnson was very popular with a section of the electorate, he was also the leadership frontrunner who voters were most likely to say would make a bad prime minister. | |
| “There is a distinct antipathy towards Boris,” he said. He pointed to a recent YouGov poll that suggested as many as 23% of respondents who had voted Conservative in 2017 thought Johnson would be a “very bad” prime minister. | “There is a distinct antipathy towards Boris,” he said. He pointed to a recent YouGov poll that suggested as many as 23% of respondents who had voted Conservative in 2017 thought Johnson would be a “very bad” prime minister. |
| In the same poll, 28% of the public thought he would make a good prime minister, outstripping any of the other eight candidates they asked about – but 54% thought he would make a bad PM. | In the same poll, 28% of the public thought he would make a good prime minister, outstripping any of the other eight candidates they asked about – but 54% thought he would make a bad PM. |
| For Gove, the equivalent numbers were 16% and 45% – and for Hunt, 13% and 42%. | For Gove, the equivalent numbers were 16% and 45% – and for Hunt, 13% and 42%. |
| “Gove and Hunt have similar problems; but the voters don’t appear to be so antipathetic, particularly to Hunt, and to some extent to Gove,” he said. | “Gove and Hunt have similar problems; but the voters don’t appear to be so antipathetic, particularly to Hunt, and to some extent to Gove,” he said. |
| More centrist candidates, including Matt Hancock and Rory Stewart, have so far failed to make much headway with MPs, with Nigel Farage’s Brexit party making inroads into Tory support in the polls. | More centrist candidates, including Matt Hancock and Rory Stewart, have so far failed to make much headway with MPs, with Nigel Farage’s Brexit party making inroads into Tory support in the polls. |
| But MPs, and the Tory members who will make the final choice, must also consider which candidates would be best suited to confront Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party in a future general election. | But MPs, and the Tory members who will make the final choice, must also consider which candidates would be best suited to confront Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party in a future general election. |
| Polling suggests the electorate is roughly divided into thirds, according to Hayward’s analysis, with one-third identifying as remain, one third as pro-Brexit, and the rest who could be won over by a “transfer-friendly” leader from either side. | Polling suggests the electorate is roughly divided into thirds, according to Hayward’s analysis, with one-third identifying as remain, one third as pro-Brexit, and the rest who could be won over by a “transfer-friendly” leader from either side. |
| He pointed out that many of these swing voters can be found in Conservative strongholds in the home counties and south-east – including areas where the Liberal Democrats made significant gains at the expense of the Tories at last month’s local elections. | He pointed out that many of these swing voters can be found in Conservative strongholds in the home counties and south-east – including areas where the Liberal Democrats made significant gains at the expense of the Tories at last month’s local elections. |
| “All candidates need to understand what happened in the local elections and is confirmed in the polls,” he said. | “All candidates need to understand what happened in the local elections and is confirmed in the polls,” he said. |
| Johnson told MPs at Tuesday night’s private hustings for Tory MPs: “We are facing an existential crisis and will not be forgiven if we do not deliver Brexit on 31 October.” | Johnson told MPs at Tuesday night’s private hustings for Tory MPs: “We are facing an existential crisis and will not be forgiven if we do not deliver Brexit on 31 October.” |
| But Hayward argued that Johnson must also show what he could do to win over non-Brexiters. “He has to complete the sentence,” he said. | But Hayward argued that Johnson must also show what he could do to win over non-Brexiters. “He has to complete the sentence,” he said. |
| Some MPs also have reservations about Gove’s popularity with the electorate. One aide working for a rival candidate was keen to point out that David Cameron moved Gove from education secretary to chief whip in 2014 because party polling showed he was too unpopular with voters to be front of house in the upcoming general election. | Some MPs also have reservations about Gove’s popularity with the electorate. One aide working for a rival candidate was keen to point out that David Cameron moved Gove from education secretary to chief whip in 2014 because party polling showed he was too unpopular with voters to be front of house in the upcoming general election. |
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