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Labour beats Brexit party in Peterborough as May prepares to bow out – live news Corbyn says Peterborough win justifies Labour's decision to focus campaigning on austerity, not Brexit – live news
(32 minutes later)
Byelections sometimes attract huge interest, not because the national media is worried about who is going to represent a particular constituency, but because it is assumed that how people vote in a byelection tells you something about how parties will fare in the next general election. As such, they are unreliable signposts (there is a long history of protest parties doing well in byelections, only for them to fall back again at the next general), but they do give some useful clues as to how political loyalties are shifting.
But what probably matters more is how byelection results are perceived. In other words, it is not so much what the results show as what people think they show that matters. They influence internal party debates about strategy, sometimes with important consequences. For example, David Cameron would have been much less likely to commit his party to an in/out EU referendum in January 2013 if it had not been for the fact that in 2011 and 2012 Ukip, which used to lose its deposit in byelections was regularly starting to come second or third.
The Brexit party had been expected to win in Peterborough, and it was assumed that a victory for Nigel Farage would have helped Boris Johnson’s campaign for the Tory leadership, because Johnson is pitching himself as the candidate best able to win back Brexit party voters. “If the Brexit party win in Peterborough it will give the campaign for Boris monkey glands,” the Conservative MP Andrew Mitchell told the FT earlier this week. Now it looks as if Team Boris will have to manage without said monkey glands. It probably won’t amount to a huge setback for the Johnson campaign, but it is definitely a setback of sorts.
And the result will have an influence on Labour politics too. There has been an intense debate in the party between those who want to commit the party to a much stronger remain/second referendum position and Jeremy Corbyn and his close allies who are resisting this because they don’t want Labour to be defined as a remain party. After the European elections Corbyn shifted very slightly towards the remain camp (confirming that the party now favoured a public vote on any Brexit deal agreed by parliament). But Corbyn has long argued that the party should be campaigning principally on austerity, not on Breixt, and he has taken the Peterborough byelection result as vindication of this position. It will probably stop any prospect of Labour getting more remainy any time soon. In his statement last night Corbyn said:
I am delighted to congratulate Lisa Forbes on a great win and a people powered campaign.
Peterborough has shown clear support for Labour’s programme to end austerity and invest in services and communities, rejecting a decade of Tory cuts and their disastrous handling of Brexit. In this key seat, the Conservatives have been pushed to the margins.
This result shows that in spite of the divisions and deadlock over Brexit, when it comes to a vote on the issues that directly affect people’s lives, Labour’s case for real change has strong support across the country. I look forward to welcoming Lisa to parliament next week.
Q: Are you comfortable that your new MP had to apologise for liking an anti-semitic post?Q: Are you comfortable that your new MP had to apologise for liking an anti-semitic post?
McDonald says he is not comfortable about that. But she made a mistake. She was trying to show she liked a picture. And she has apologised.McDonald says he is not comfortable about that. But she made a mistake. She was trying to show she liked a picture. And she has apologised.
And that’s it. The interview is over.And that’s it. The interview is over.
Q: Where will Labour get a trade deal? Given your relationship with Donald Trump, it won’t be the US?Q: Where will Labour get a trade deal? Given your relationship with Donald Trump, it won’t be the US?
McDonald says Trump said he wanted the NHS to be on the table in a trade deal.McDonald says Trump said he wanted the NHS to be on the table in a trade deal.
Humphrys denies this. McDonald says Trump did say this. We all heard it.Humphrys denies this. McDonald says Trump did say this. We all heard it.
He says Trump would only want a deal to his advantage.He says Trump would only want a deal to his advantage.
Q: So you would not want a deal with him?Q: So you would not want a deal with him?
McDonald says trade deals take a long time to negotiate. He says he hopes Trump is “long gone” by the time any deal needs to be signed.McDonald says trade deals take a long time to negotiate. He says he hopes Trump is “long gone” by the time any deal needs to be signed.
McDonald says the Tories are now offering a no-deal Brexit.McDonald says the Tories are now offering a no-deal Brexit.
If that were to go ahead, the economy would be “trashed”, he says.If that were to go ahead, the economy would be “trashed”, he says.
That is why we have to go back to the people.That is why we have to go back to the people.
Q: Are you calling for a second referendum?Q: Are you calling for a second referendum?
McDonald says if that (no-deal) is the option, it should go back to the people. Or any deal coming from parliament should go back to the people, he says.McDonald says if that (no-deal) is the option, it should go back to the people. Or any deal coming from parliament should go back to the people, he says.
Q: John McDonnell said last week said Labour is the party of remain and reform. It that right?Q: John McDonnell said last week said Labour is the party of remain and reform. It that right?
McDonald said Labour fought the referendum on that basis.McDonald said Labour fought the referendum on that basis.
Q: But Labour is now saying we must remain in the EU.Q: But Labour is now saying we must remain in the EU.
McDonald said Labour wanted to leave the EU on terms that would protect the economy. But that option is now no longer available.McDonald said Labour wanted to leave the EU on terms that would protect the economy. But that option is now no longer available.
The referendum did not ask people if they wanted a car factory in Bridgend to close.The referendum did not ask people if they wanted a car factory in Bridgend to close.
He says he cannot sit here and let that catastrophe be inflicted on this country. That is not what people voted for.He says he cannot sit here and let that catastrophe be inflicted on this country. That is not what people voted for.
Q: So Labour is telling leave voters they got it wrong?Q: So Labour is telling leave voters they got it wrong?
McDonald says he is not saying that at all.McDonald says he is not saying that at all.
Q: Are you assuming people who voted leave are so thick they did not know what they are voting for?Q: Are you assuming people who voted leave are so thick they did not know what they are voting for?
McDonald says he is not saying that at all. He is cross that John Humphrys (the presenter) is suggesting that.McDonald says he is not saying that at all. He is cross that John Humphrys (the presenter) is suggesting that.
McDonald says a no-deal Brexit would be cataclysmic for the country.McDonald says a no-deal Brexit would be cataclysmic for the country.
The Tory Brexiters are so extreme they want to suspend parliament.The Tory Brexiters are so extreme they want to suspend parliament.
Andy McDonald, the shadow transport secretary, is on the Today programme now commenting on the byelection result for Labour.Andy McDonald, the shadow transport secretary, is on the Today programme now commenting on the byelection result for Labour.
Q: You squeaked in?Q: You squeaked in?
We won, says McDonald.We won, says McDonald.
He says Labour won against the odds. Nigel Farage scuttled away from the count, he says.He says Labour won against the odds. Nigel Farage scuttled away from the count, he says.
He says the commentators expected Labour to lose.He says the commentators expected Labour to lose.
Q: But you were fighting a Tory party that does not even have a leader. And the Brexit party were only a few hundred votes behind.Q: But you were fighting a Tory party that does not even have a leader. And the Brexit party were only a few hundred votes behind.
McDonald says the Labour margin of victory was bigger than it was in 2017. (See 8.09am for the figures.)McDonald says the Labour margin of victory was bigger than it was in 2017. (See 8.09am for the figures.)
Here are the byelection results in full, from the Press Association.Here are the byelection results in full, from the Press Association.
Lisa Forbes (Lab) 10,484 (30.91%, -17.17%)Lisa Forbes (Lab) 10,484 (30.91%, -17.17%)
Mike Greene (Brexit) 9,801 (28.89%)Mike Greene (Brexit) 9,801 (28.89%)
Paul Bristow (C) 7,243 (21.35%, -25.45%)Paul Bristow (C) 7,243 (21.35%, -25.45%)
Beki Sellick (LD) 4,159 (12.26%, +8.92%)Beki Sellick (LD) 4,159 (12.26%, +8.92%)
Joseph Wells (Green) 1,035 (3.05%, +1.27%)Joseph Wells (Green) 1,035 (3.05%, +1.27%)
John Whitby (UKIP) 400 (1.18%)John Whitby (UKIP) 400 (1.18%)
Tom Rogers (CPA) 162 (0.48%)Tom Rogers (CPA) 162 (0.48%)
Stephen Goldspink (Eng Dem) 153 (0.45%)Stephen Goldspink (Eng Dem) 153 (0.45%)
Patrick O’Flynn (Soc Dem) 135 (0.40%)Patrick O’Flynn (Soc Dem) 135 (0.40%)
Howling ‘Laud’ Hope (Loony) 112 (0.33%)Howling ‘Laud’ Hope (Loony) 112 (0.33%)
Andrew Moore (ND) 101 (0.30%)Andrew Moore (ND) 101 (0.30%)
Dick Rodgers (CG) 60 (0.18%)Dick Rodgers (CG) 60 (0.18%)
Peter Ward (Renew) 45 (0.13%)Peter Ward (Renew) 45 (0.13%)
Pierre Kirk (UKEUP) 25 (0.07%)Pierre Kirk (UKEUP) 25 (0.07%)
Bobby Smith (ND) 5 (0.01%)Bobby Smith (ND) 5 (0.01%)
Lab maj 683 (2.01%)Lab maj 683 (2.01%)
Electorate 70,199; Turnout 33,920 (48.32%, -18.43%)Electorate 70,199; Turnout 33,920 (48.32%, -18.43%)
And here are the 2017 general election results, for comparison.And here are the 2017 general election results, for comparison.
2017: Lab maj 607 (1.27%) - Turnout 47,738 (66.75%) Onasanya (Lab) 22,950 (48.07%); Jackson (C) 22,343 (46.80%); Sellick (LD) 1,597 (3.35%); Radic (Green) 848 (1.78%)2017: Lab maj 607 (1.27%) - Turnout 47,738 (66.75%) Onasanya (Lab) 22,950 (48.07%); Jackson (C) 22,343 (46.80%); Sellick (LD) 1,597 (3.35%); Radic (Green) 848 (1.78%)
Good Morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Matthew Weaver.Good Morning. I’m Andrew Sparrow, taking over from Matthew Weaver.
Brandon Lewis, the Conservative party chairman, has just finished another interview, on the Today programme.Brandon Lewis, the Conservative party chairman, has just finished another interview, on the Today programme.
Lewis said he though it was “highly unlikely” that, when the Tory leadership contests gets down to the final two candidates, one of those will pull out, as Andrea Leadsom did in 2016.Lewis said he though it was “highly unlikely” that, when the Tory leadership contests gets down to the final two candidates, one of those will pull out, as Andrea Leadsom did in 2016.
(Yesterday Fraser Nelson, the Spectator editor, said that two of the candidates had told him that they would pull out if they were up against Boris Johnson in the ballot of Tory members and it was obvious that Johnson would win.)(Yesterday Fraser Nelson, the Spectator editor, said that two of the candidates had told him that they would pull out if they were up against Boris Johnson in the ballot of Tory members and it was obvious that Johnson would win.)
Q: Would it be undemocratic if the new Tory leader prorogued parliament to facilitate a no-deal Brexit?Q: Would it be undemocratic if the new Tory leader prorogued parliament to facilitate a no-deal Brexit?
Lewis said, if he commented too deeply on that, he would be starting to comment on the policy proposals of candidates. And he needed to stay neutral, he said.Lewis said, if he commented too deeply on that, he would be starting to comment on the policy proposals of candidates. And he needed to stay neutral, he said.
But he said it has been clear to him that people wanted to see parliamentarians deliver on Brexit.But he said it has been clear to him that people wanted to see parliamentarians deliver on Brexit.
Q: You have allowed entryists into the Tory party on your watch?Q: You have allowed entryists into the Tory party on your watch?
Lewis said he preferred to focus on the fact. He said that he was proud that the party membership had got larger.Lewis said he preferred to focus on the fact. He said that he was proud that the party membership had got larger.
I would argue that we have not seen entryism.I would argue that we have not seen entryism.
Lewis claims the Conservative party has not been subject to entryism.Lewis claims the Conservative party has not been subject to entryism.
Brandon Lewis, chairman of the Conservative Party, said he was “very disappointed” by the byelection result but claim it was conducted against a “very tough back drop.”Brandon Lewis, chairman of the Conservative Party, said he was “very disappointed” by the byelection result but claim it was conducted against a “very tough back drop.”
He blamed the government’s failure to implement Brexit.He blamed the government’s failure to implement Brexit.
Speaking to Sky News he said:Speaking to Sky News he said:
“People want to see us a government, and a party, getting on and delivering for them and that does include getting Brexit done. We’ve got to get that done. We have got to deliver for people on the issue they voted on in 2016. People want to see us a government, and a party, getting on and delivering for them and that does include getting Brexit done. We’ve got to get that done. We have got to deliver for people on the issue they voted on in 2016.
Lewis added: “The reality is we are nine years into a Conservative government, and I think you’ll find that no government in history has ever won a seat from the opposition nine years into government.” Lewis added:
The reality is we are nine years into a Conservative government, and I think you’ll find that no government in history has ever won a seat from the opposition nine years into government.
Farage also claimed that none of the Tory leadership contenders had the “courage” to leave the EU on 31 October without a deal.Farage also claimed that none of the Tory leadership contenders had the “courage” to leave the EU on 31 October without a deal.
I cannot see right at the moment anybody standing in this conservative leadership right now who’s actually got the courage to take us out on the 31st of October on WTO terms.I cannot see right at the moment anybody standing in this conservative leadership right now who’s actually got the courage to take us out on the 31st of October on WTO terms.
Here’s some reaction to Farage’s response to the result:Here’s some reaction to Farage’s response to the result:
On R4 Nigel Farage sounded very bullish about Peterborough by-election loss - he always sounds bullish - but I think you could detect real disappointment. Brexit party failed to counter assumption they would win. They didn't, and now some of the momentum, inevitably, is lost.On R4 Nigel Farage sounded very bullish about Peterborough by-election loss - he always sounds bullish - but I think you could detect real disappointment. Brexit party failed to counter assumption they would win. They didn't, and now some of the momentum, inevitably, is lost.
Slippery one club golfer Nigel Farage in Peterborough lost his first, possibly best and perhaps only chance of the Brexit Party winning a Westminster by-election unless a Tory MP defects.Slippery one club golfer Nigel Farage in Peterborough lost his first, possibly best and perhaps only chance of the Brexit Party winning a Westminster by-election unless a Tory MP defects.
Brexit party leader, Nigel Farage, claims he never said his new party could win the Peterborough byelection. The Brexit party leader, Nigel Farage, claims he never said his new party could win the Peterborough byelection.
Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme he said always predicted that Brexit would come second, despite turning up for the count.Speaking to BBC Radio 4’s Today programme he said always predicted that Brexit would come second, despite turning up for the count.
“British politics has fundamentally changed. It is no longer just two parties contesting,” he said.“British politics has fundamentally changed. It is no longer just two parties contesting,” he said.
He said Tory supporters would soon begin to realise that voting Conservative would bring about a Corbyn-led government. “The only reason the Brexit party wasn’t able to push a couple of hundred votes past Labour was because quite a lot of people still voted Conservative,” he said.He said Tory supporters would soon begin to realise that voting Conservative would bring about a Corbyn-led government. “The only reason the Brexit party wasn’t able to push a couple of hundred votes past Labour was because quite a lot of people still voted Conservative,” he said.
“If we don’t leave [the EU] by 31 October, the Brexit Party will power on,” he said. The future is very unpredictable, he said.“If we don’t leave [the EU] by 31 October, the Brexit Party will power on,” he said. The future is very unpredictable, he said.
“We came from nowhere, produced a massive result,” Farage said.“We came from nowhere, produced a massive result,” Farage said.
Jeremy Hunt says there is “no future” for the Conservative party “until we deliver Brexit – any elections before then will just allow Corbyn to sneak through the middle”.Jeremy Hunt says there is “no future” for the Conservative party “until we deliver Brexit – any elections before then will just allow Corbyn to sneak through the middle”.
Incredibly disappointing that our brilliant candidate for Peterborough @paulbristow79 was not successful. No future for our party until we deliver Brexit - any elections before then will just allow Corbyn to sneak through the middle. But when the UK has Brexited, we will be back!Incredibly disappointing that our brilliant candidate for Peterborough @paulbristow79 was not successful. No future for our party until we deliver Brexit - any elections before then will just allow Corbyn to sneak through the middle. But when the UK has Brexited, we will be back!
And more reaction from other Conservative MPs, who are very disappointed their candidate, Paul Bristow, did not win. The Conservatives saw a swing against them of 25.5% compared with the 2017 election.And more reaction from other Conservative MPs, who are very disappointed their candidate, Paul Bristow, did not win. The Conservatives saw a swing against them of 25.5% compared with the 2017 election.
The Peterborough by-election shows our real opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. We need to deliver Brexit then turn the page with a fresh face & concentrate on all the other things that matter to peopleThe Peterborough by-election shows our real opponent is Jeremy Corbyn. We need to deliver Brexit then turn the page with a fresh face & concentrate on all the other things that matter to people
Conservative MPs must carefully consider the message of the European elections and Peterborough. Brexit must happen by 31 October or the electorate will never forgive us. We need a new leader with the strength, will and determination to achieve it. In my book, that’s Boris.Conservative MPs must carefully consider the message of the European elections and Peterborough. Brexit must happen by 31 October or the electorate will never forgive us. We need a new leader with the strength, will and determination to achieve it. In my book, that’s Boris.
Disappointing result in Peterborough, as Labour holds the seat, but as the BBC say, ⁦@paulbristow79⁩ has done better than the pundits expected. He worked very hard indeed and will surely be back! https://t.co/cGiFf6v4rQDisappointing result in Peterborough, as Labour holds the seat, but as the BBC say, ⁦@paulbristow79⁩ has done better than the pundits expected. He worked very hard indeed and will surely be back! https://t.co/cGiFf6v4rQ
Peterborough, full result:LAB: 30.9% (-17.2)BREX: 28.9% (+28.9)CON: 21.4% (-25.5)LDEM: 12.3% (+8.9)GRN: 3.1%UKIP: 1.2%CHR: 0.5%EDEM: 0.5%SDP: 0.4%MRLP: 0.3%IND: 0.3%CG: 0.2%RNW: 0.1%UKEU: 0.1%IND: 0.0% (5 votes)Peterborough, full result:LAB: 30.9% (-17.2)BREX: 28.9% (+28.9)CON: 21.4% (-25.5)LDEM: 12.3% (+8.9)GRN: 3.1%UKIP: 1.2%CHR: 0.5%EDEM: 0.5%SDP: 0.4%MRLP: 0.3%IND: 0.3%CG: 0.2%RNW: 0.1%UKEU: 0.1%IND: 0.0% (5 votes)
Here’s Jeremy Corbyn’s response to Lisa Forbes’ Peterborough win last night.Here’s Jeremy Corbyn’s response to Lisa Forbes’ Peterborough win last night.
I'm delighted to congratulate @LisaForbes_ on winning the #PeterboroughByElection and for running a people powered campaign.Peterborough has again rejected Tory austerity - showing clear support for our programme of ending cuts, and investing in services and communities.I'm delighted to congratulate @LisaForbes_ on winning the #PeterboroughByElection and for running a people powered campaign.Peterborough has again rejected Tory austerity - showing clear support for our programme of ending cuts, and investing in services and communities.
This result shows that despite the divisions and deadlock over Brexit, when it comes to a vote on the issues that directly affect people’s lives, Labour’s case for real change has strong support across the country.I look forward to welcoming Lisa to parliament next week.This result shows that despite the divisions and deadlock over Brexit, when it comes to a vote on the issues that directly affect people’s lives, Labour’s case for real change has strong support across the country.I look forward to welcoming Lisa to parliament next week.
Need something to listen to over your morning tea and toast? John Crace, who coined the name Maybot for the prime minister, chats to Anushka Asthana about the end of May’s leadership.Need something to listen to over your morning tea and toast? John Crace, who coined the name Maybot for the prime minister, chats to Anushka Asthana about the end of May’s leadership.
Farewell Maybot: John Crace on the changing of the Tory guardFarewell Maybot: John Crace on the changing of the Tory guard
A statement from the leftwing Labour grassroots organisation Momentum, which is thrilled with the result and says it proves “face-to-face conversations coupled with a radical, positive message about how we will transform Britain does win hearts and minds”.A statement from the leftwing Labour grassroots organisation Momentum, which is thrilled with the result and says it proves “face-to-face conversations coupled with a radical, positive message about how we will transform Britain does win hearts and minds”.
Momentum estimates it mobilised nearly 1,000 activists to either knock on doors or make calls in the run up to the Peterborough byelection, including more than 300 people canvassing on the Saturday before polling day and 500 knocking on doors on polling day.Momentum estimates it mobilised nearly 1,000 activists to either knock on doors or make calls in the run up to the Peterborough byelection, including more than 300 people canvassing on the Saturday before polling day and 500 knocking on doors on polling day.
Laura Parker, Momentum’s national coordinator, said:Laura Parker, Momentum’s national coordinator, said:
Momentum threw itself into this election with energy and determination, with nearly a thousand of our supporters getting involved, and absolutely paid off. This fantastic victory in difficult circumstances is down to the work of ordinary activists. Over the campaign, thousands of Momentum members knocked on doors and talked to voters in Peterborough, with more than 500 turning out for polling day and activists carpooling from across the country. Face to face conversations coupled with a radical, positive message about how we will transform Britain does win hearts and minds.Momentum threw itself into this election with energy and determination, with nearly a thousand of our supporters getting involved, and absolutely paid off. This fantastic victory in difficult circumstances is down to the work of ordinary activists. Over the campaign, thousands of Momentum members knocked on doors and talked to voters in Peterborough, with more than 500 turning out for polling day and activists carpooling from across the country. Face to face conversations coupled with a radical, positive message about how we will transform Britain does win hearts and minds.
Some pictures from the Peterborough countSome pictures from the Peterborough count
Good morning and welcome to today’s politics liveblog. I’m Kate Lyons and I’ll be kicking things off today before handing over to Andrew Sparrow.Good morning and welcome to today’s politics liveblog. I’m Kate Lyons and I’ll be kicking things off today before handing over to Andrew Sparrow.
Well, it was quite a night in Peterborough, as Lisa Forbes, the Labour candidate in the byelection, won a very narrow victory over the Brexit party’s Mike Greene.Well, it was quite a night in Peterborough, as Lisa Forbes, the Labour candidate in the byelection, won a very narrow victory over the Brexit party’s Mike Greene.
Forbes won 10,484 votes to Greene’s 9,801 votes, a margin of just 683. The Conservatives were beaten into third place with 7,243 votes. Turnout was 48%.Forbes won 10,484 votes to Greene’s 9,801 votes, a margin of just 683. The Conservatives were beaten into third place with 7,243 votes. Turnout was 48%.
The victory will be a boost to Labour and Jeremy Corbyn, as the party defeated predictions that the contest would deliver a first byelection victory to Nigel Farage’s Brexit party.The victory will be a boost to Labour and Jeremy Corbyn, as the party defeated predictions that the contest would deliver a first byelection victory to Nigel Farage’s Brexit party.
Addressing her supporters early on Friday following the count, Forbes said: “Tonight’s result is significant because it shows that the politics of division will never win.”Addressing her supporters early on Friday following the count, Forbes said: “Tonight’s result is significant because it shows that the politics of division will never win.”
The other big news of the day is, of course, that it is May’s last as leader of the Conservative party, though she will remain prime minister until her successor as party leader is chosen. We’ll be following that news and all the rest throughout the day.The other big news of the day is, of course, that it is May’s last as leader of the Conservative party, though she will remain prime minister until her successor as party leader is chosen. We’ll be following that news and all the rest throughout the day.
Questions, comments, witticisms? Please feel free to get in touch in the comments, via email (kate.lyons@theguardian.com) or on Twitter.Questions, comments, witticisms? Please feel free to get in touch in the comments, via email (kate.lyons@theguardian.com) or on Twitter.
OK, let’s get stuck in!OK, let’s get stuck in!