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| EU view of Tory leadership candidates deeply critical, say sources | EU view of Tory leadership candidates deeply critical, say sources |
| (3 days later) | |
| The EU has been on a Brexit break since the UK secured a six-month delay to its departure. With Theresa May soon to leave 10 Downing Street, Brussels is tuning in to the Westminster drama of the Tory leadership race – with both amazement and exasperation. | The EU has been on a Brexit break since the UK secured a six-month delay to its departure. With Theresa May soon to leave 10 Downing Street, Brussels is tuning in to the Westminster drama of the Tory leadership race – with both amazement and exasperation. |
| “People in Brussels are fed up that the political class in the UK has gone a little bit crazy,” Jean-Claude Piris, a former head of the European council’s legal service said. British politicians seemed to have gone “on holiday”, since gaining the extension, he added. | “People in Brussels are fed up that the political class in the UK has gone a little bit crazy,” Jean-Claude Piris, a former head of the European council’s legal service said. British politicians seemed to have gone “on holiday”, since gaining the extension, he added. |
| For the EU, the bookies’ favourite Boris Johnson, is a Trumpian figure whose disputed claims and bombastic rhetoric played a major role in plunging the UK into what is seen in Brussels as the Brexit nightmare. | For the EU, the bookies’ favourite Boris Johnson, is a Trumpian figure whose disputed claims and bombastic rhetoric played a major role in plunging the UK into what is seen in Brussels as the Brexit nightmare. |
| Boris Johnson to appear in court over Brexit misconduct claims | Boris Johnson to appear in court over Brexit misconduct claims |
| The former foreign secretary is remembered for his early 1990s stint as Brussels correspondent of the Daily Telegraph, where he made his name mocking EU regulations, promoting what the European commission calls “Euromyths”. He achieved wider prominence for his claims during the EU referendum campaign. “He lied a lot to the British people,” the then French foreign minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, said in 2016. | The former foreign secretary is remembered for his early 1990s stint as Brussels correspondent of the Daily Telegraph, where he made his name mocking EU regulations, promoting what the European commission calls “Euromyths”. He achieved wider prominence for his claims during the EU referendum campaign. “He lied a lot to the British people,” the then French foreign minister, Jean-Marc Ayrault, said in 2016. |
| “The idea of Boris Johnson in the European council is probably quite abhorrent to some EU leaders,” an EU source said. “Boris is known in foreign policy circles, certainly not respected. He’s also seen as part of a wider Trump world and no one wants that.” | “The idea of Boris Johnson in the European council is probably quite abhorrent to some EU leaders,” an EU source said. “Boris is known in foreign policy circles, certainly not respected. He’s also seen as part of a wider Trump world and no one wants that.” |
| The EU’s most senior civil servant, Martin Selmayr, once described a Johnson premiership as a “horror scenario”, classing him with Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump. | The EU’s most senior civil servant, Martin Selmayr, once described a Johnson premiership as a “horror scenario”, classing him with Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump. |
| #G7 2017 with Trump, Le Pen, Boris Johnson, Beppe Grillo? A horror scenario that shows well why it is worth fighting populism. #withJuncker | #G7 2017 with Trump, Le Pen, Boris Johnson, Beppe Grillo? A horror scenario that shows well why it is worth fighting populism. #withJuncker |
| Many EU insiders think the chances of no deal have increased, with the Tory party expected to choose a Brexiter prime minister. | Many EU insiders think the chances of no deal have increased, with the Tory party expected to choose a Brexiter prime minister. |
| “For me it is very clear the odds of no-deal Brexit are more than half and clearly if Boris Johnson becomes prime minister the odds will go up again,” said Philippe Lamberts, a Belgian MEP and member of the European parliament’s Brexit steering group. | “For me it is very clear the odds of no-deal Brexit are more than half and clearly if Boris Johnson becomes prime minister the odds will go up again,” said Philippe Lamberts, a Belgian MEP and member of the European parliament’s Brexit steering group. |
| Another favourite, Dominic Raab, is held in low-esteem in Brussels. During his four-month tenure as Brexit secretary, he lost trust of his EU counterparts. “He was seen to be working against his prime minister and making things up,” the first EU source said. | Another favourite, Dominic Raab, is held in low-esteem in Brussels. During his four-month tenure as Brexit secretary, he lost trust of his EU counterparts. “He was seen to be working against his prime minister and making things up,” the first EU source said. |
| The European commission recently accused Raab of making “fraudulent” claims and spreading “pure disinformation” in a campaign video about the views of its secretary-general, Selmayr, on the future of Ireland. | The European commission recently accused Raab of making “fraudulent” claims and spreading “pure disinformation” in a campaign video about the views of its secretary-general, Selmayr, on the future of Ireland. |
| Responding to unfavourable reports from Brussels, Raab told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show that it “probably tells you that I was doing my job in terms of pressing them hard and making sure that Britain’s interests were resolutely defended”. | Responding to unfavourable reports from Brussels, Raab told the BBC’s The Andrew Marr Show that it “probably tells you that I was doing my job in terms of pressing them hard and making sure that Britain’s interests were resolutely defended”. |
| Candidates deemed compromise choices at Westminster have also inspired mistrust in Brussels. The foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, is reported to have struck a different tone on Brexit with his EU counterparts than the public stance he takes in the UK. “He gave a very different impression than what he is suggesting now,” an EU diplomat said. More recently, Hunt has toned down his views on no deal, warning it would be “political suicide”. | Candidates deemed compromise choices at Westminster have also inspired mistrust in Brussels. The foreign secretary, Jeremy Hunt, is reported to have struck a different tone on Brexit with his EU counterparts than the public stance he takes in the UK. “He gave a very different impression than what he is suggesting now,” an EU diplomat said. More recently, Hunt has toned down his views on no deal, warning it would be “political suicide”. |
| EU officials expect Tory candidates will be falling over themselves to prove their hard-Brexit credentials, following the party’s poor showing in the European elections, where just four of its MEPs were elected and Nigel Farage’s Brexit party won the most votes. “The Tory party will be in survival mode and … will have to regain credibility as the party of Brexit,” another EU source said. | EU officials expect Tory candidates will be falling over themselves to prove their hard-Brexit credentials, following the party’s poor showing in the European elections, where just four of its MEPs were elected and Nigel Farage’s Brexit party won the most votes. “The Tory party will be in survival mode and … will have to regain credibility as the party of Brexit,” another EU source said. |
| The environment secretary’s campaign plan was knocked off course by revelations about drug-taking. | |
| He has sought to regain his place as the leading ‘Stop Boris’ with a series of policy pledges, from a new social insurance to pay for social care, to changing human rights law to prevent service personnel being pursued over historical crimes. He has better Brexiter credentials than Hunt, is liked by the moderate wing of the party, and is a better orator than almost any other candidate. | |
| He has played up his senior role in the Vote Leave campaign, saying he had ‘led from the front’ because he believed it was ‘the right thing to do, at a critical moment in our history’. | |
| On Brexit he has publicly discussed the idea of extending the Brexit deadline slightly beyond 31 October, if needed to finalise a deal. Has not completely ruled out a no-deal Brexit. | |
| He received 37 votes in the first round, coming third. | He received 37 votes in the first round, coming third. |
| The foreign secretary has made the case that he is the most serious and experienced would-be leader, in an apparent rebuke to his main rival, Boris Johnson. | |
| On Brexit he believes a new deal is possible by 31 October, and would send a new, cross-party negotiating team to Brussels. Would countenance leaving EU without a deal, but has warned that could lead to a confidence vote and potentially an election. | |
| Hunt’s problem is he is seen as the continuity candidate, the safe pair of hands, when colleagues are starting to see the attraction of a new style. | |
| He received 43 votes in the first round, placing him second. | He received 43 votes in the first round, placing him second. |
| Javid struggled to define himself in the first days of the campaign, not a fresh face, not a safe pair of hands, or a true Brexit believer. But his campaign picked up, with the endorsement of popular Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson, a polished leadership video telling the moving story of his background, and a lively launch speech. It was still only enough to place him fifth, though. | |
| On Brexit, Javid says he wants to leave with a deal, but has talked down the idea of another extension and would be prepared to opt for no deal. | |
| He is expected to make a new push to define himself as the change candidate who can talk to Tory voters in new places – though he may also be tempted to drop out to tuck in behind one of the frontrunners. It is hard to see how he could make it into the final two from this position. | |
| He received 23 votes in the first round. | He received 23 votes in the first round. |
| The former foreign secretary already has enough support to progress through to the members’ ballot. All Johnson needs to do is sit tight, keep his MPs sweet and try not to ruin it for himself. He has kept a low profile in the media and stayed in the tearooms and in his office, methodically talking round colleagues. His team know that one negative news cycle because of an off-guard comment could see his star plummet – and Johnson is more prone to those than most. | |
| On Brexit he has promised the UK will leave the EU on 31 October, come what may, even without a deal if a new agreement cannot be reached in time. | |
| Johnson won the first round with 114 votes. | Johnson won the first round with 114 votes. |
| The former Brexit secretary has had a rocky start to his campaign after telling broadcasters he was not a feminist and missing out on a slew of endorsements from the Brexiter right of the party, which instead went to Boris Johnson | |
| On Brexit Raab has said he would actively seek a no-deal departure, and has repeatedly refused to rule out proroguing parliament to make sure MPs could not block this. ‘We’ve been humiliated as a country in these talks with the EU,’ he said. ‘We’re divided at home, and demeaned abroad.’ | |
| His limited chance of success really now depends on whether Johnson stumbles and a more moderate candidate gains momentum, in which case Raab could be the beneficiary. | |
| Raab got 27 votes in the first round. | Raab got 27 votes in the first round. |
| Stewart said he was ‘over the moon’ to scrape into the next round of voting with 19 votes, one-sixth of Johnson’s tally, and insisted afterwards he could still make the final two. He still has a mountain to climb to get into the next round, where he will need to get another 14 endorsements – and avoid coming last – or he will be automatically eliminated. | |
| The safe money would say it is likely that he will not make it through the next round, yet it is just about possible that his mounting popularity with the public could convince colleagues to take a gamble on him if they hope to find an outsider with a chance of beating Johnson. | |
| On Brexit he is by far the softest of the candidates – he so vehemently rules out no deal that he has discussed holding an impromptu parliament elsewhere in Westminster if a new PM opted to prorogue the Commons. | |
| Stewart got 19 votes in the first round. | Stewart got 19 votes in the first round. |
| For many, the leadership race is an unedifying fight for power, while the clock ticks down remorselessly to Brexit day on 31 October. | For many, the leadership race is an unedifying fight for power, while the clock ticks down remorselessly to Brexit day on 31 October. |
| More governments are coming round to the tough position of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who argued against a long extension on the grounds that Brexit would become a damaging and distracting burden for the EU. | More governments are coming round to the tough position of the French president, Emmanuel Macron, who argued against a long extension on the grounds that Brexit would become a damaging and distracting burden for the EU. |
| Donald Tusk, the European council president, helped persuade member states to back a longer extension, which he urged the UK not to waste. | Donald Tusk, the European council president, helped persuade member states to back a longer extension, which he urged the UK not to waste. |
| “We were definitely on the other side of Macron,” the diplomat recalled. “Now I think Macron was right. We were wrong. Tusk was wrong.” | “We were definitely on the other side of Macron,” the diplomat recalled. “Now I think Macron was right. We were wrong. Tusk was wrong.” |
| “[Macron] closed the door [to another extension] and it’s not shut, but the wind is blowing against it. And the harder Johnson’s rhetoric, and harder Raab’s rhetoric, the harder it is to open the door.” | “[Macron] closed the door [to another extension] and it’s not shut, but the wind is blowing against it. And the harder Johnson’s rhetoric, and harder Raab’s rhetoric, the harder it is to open the door.” |
| Asked about the Tory contest last month, Tusk said there was “nothing promising” in “the state of affairs in London”. | Asked about the Tory contest last month, Tusk said there was “nothing promising” in “the state of affairs in London”. |
| Many in the EU would support an extension for what is known in Brussels as “a democratic event”, meaning a general election or a second referendum. | Many in the EU would support an extension for what is known in Brussels as “a democratic event”, meaning a general election or a second referendum. |
| Without that, Piris thinks EU leaders could say no to a further extension. “But even if they say yes. What would happen? There is an inability to solve this question in the House of Commons.” | Without that, Piris thinks EU leaders could say no to a further extension. “But even if they say yes. What would happen? There is an inability to solve this question in the House of Commons.” |
| He stresses the Brexit conundrum is not down to an individual Tory leader. “It is a question of the political system of the UK being unable to answer to such a unique event in the life of the nation.” | He stresses the Brexit conundrum is not down to an individual Tory leader. “It is a question of the political system of the UK being unable to answer to such a unique event in the life of the nation.” |
| Lamberts warns that nothing will change for May’s successor, as the EU will refuse to reopen the withdrawal agreement, including the Irish backstop. “Anyone who steps into Downing Street will face exactly the same constraints. Saying you want to renegotiate this agreement is nice and well, but it won’t happen,” he said. | Lamberts warns that nothing will change for May’s successor, as the EU will refuse to reopen the withdrawal agreement, including the Irish backstop. “Anyone who steps into Downing Street will face exactly the same constraints. Saying you want to renegotiate this agreement is nice and well, but it won’t happen,” he said. |
| Meanwhile, the Tory contest is not keeping Brussels on the edge of its seat. “We really don’t care very much [who wins]” the diplomat said. “From an EU point of view, we would rather see someone that could deliver a smooth, orderly Brexit. Whether Johnson is going to be able to deliver it, the UK is going to have to ask itself.” | Meanwhile, the Tory contest is not keeping Brussels on the edge of its seat. “We really don’t care very much [who wins]” the diplomat said. “From an EU point of view, we would rather see someone that could deliver a smooth, orderly Brexit. Whether Johnson is going to be able to deliver it, the UK is going to have to ask itself.” |
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