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| Tory leadership: Boris Johnson launches campaign to be next prime minister – live news | |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| From the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg | |
| Boris Johnson launch about to start - live on @BBCnews - whatever happens next his team has done quite some job getting all shades of tory party in the room - from Mogg and Francois to Brokenshire and rising ministers like Dowden and Frazer - it’s some coalition | |
| Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has said that he does not think Boris Johnson would be able to deliver on his promise to take the UK out of the EU by 31 October, MLex’s Matthew Holehouse reports. | |
| Hammond says Boris plan for Oct 31 won't happen. "I dont think so. I think it's not sensible for candidates to box themselves in. Parliament won't allow a no-deal exit and it may not be that easy to agree a deal in parliament." Adds: "very difficult or impossible." | |
| Candidates like Boris can "test this for themselves" but the EU won't reopen the deal. Hammond has told Japanese business no-deal is no more likely. "Parliament isn't going to change its position that it wont licence no-deal." | |
| Hammond also said that taking the UK out of the EU by 31 October would be “impossible” and that trying to implement this policy would not be in the national interest. | |
| From the Tory MP Zac Goldsmith | |
| The audience here for Boris’s launch demonstrates beyond doubt that his is the only campaign that has drawn support from every part of the Conservative Party. He will unite the party and the country. | |
| The leading French newspaper Le Monde has an editorial saying it does not want to see Boris Johnson as prime minister, Le Monde’s Philippe Bernard reports. | |
| Boris Johnson à la tête du Royaume-Uni ? Non merci ! L’éditorial du Monde. https://t.co/p3LfifEYof via @lemondefr | |
| From my colleague John Crace | |
| Just arrived at Boris Johnson launch. AKA the jobs fair for Tory MPs | |
| From the Mail’s Jason Groves | |
| Jo Johnson spotted walking slowly through the park to his brother's campaign launch - gives a hollow laugh when asked if he feels like a condemned man approaching the gallows | |
| From Steve Baker, the Brexiter Tory backing Boris Johnson | |
| The #BackBoris launch is somewhat oversubscribed. pic.twitter.com/FByYyaiaiu | |
| From the Mail on Sunday’s Harry Cole | |
| half the cabinet and rising stars here. “An air of unstoppable inevitably” says one. | |
| From the Telegraph’s Gordon Rayner | |
| Even Bernard Hogan Howe, former Met Commissioner, is at the Boris launch. It is now standing room only. | |
| Philip Hammond, the chancellor, is speaking at a Bloomberg event. There is a live feed here. | |
| Hammond has just started, and at the moment he is talking about the tech sector, | |
| Journalists arriving for the Boris Johnson launch are being offered “Boris bacon butties” and “Boris eggs Benedict” inside the venue, the Press Association reports. They are also being invited to wear “Back Boris” badges. | |
| Sarah Vine, Michael Gove’s wife, has used her column in the Daily Mail today to write about her husband having to admit to having taken cocaine before he became an MP. The article does not contain any new information, but, in a reference to the unnamed source thought to have leaked the cocaine story to a journalist, she writes about what it feels like to have trust betrayed. | |
| As traumatic as the past few days have been for us and our family, I actually think it has been all to the good ... | |
| It has taught me some useful lessons about trust, friendship and the nature of both, which — whatever the outcome of the current race — are universally valid. | |
| Specifically, friendships are judged by actions, not words. Trust may be freely given, but you should not always expect it in return, and certainly not when the intoxicating scent of power is in the air. | |
| It would be fascinating to see David Cameron’s reaction when he reads this. Given what happened during the 2016 referendum campaign, Cameron does not feel Michael Gove is well placed to lecture anyone on trust. | |
| The Daily Telegraph has today written up some polling it has commissioned from ComRes that appears to be hugely favourable to Boris Johnson, the paper’s star columnist and its favoured candidate for the Tory leadership. ComRes asked how people would vote with alternative candidates as leader and the results suggest they would do best under Johnson. | The Daily Telegraph has today written up some polling it has commissioned from ComRes that appears to be hugely favourable to Boris Johnson, the paper’s star columnist and its favoured candidate for the Tory leadership. ComRes asked how people would vote with alternative candidates as leader and the results suggest they would do best under Johnson. |
| ComRes has also tried to estimate what a general election result might look like on the basis of these figures. It claims that polling suggests Johnson could produce a Commons majority of 140 for the Tories, while under all his rivals there would be a hung parliament. | ComRes has also tried to estimate what a general election result might look like on the basis of these figures. It claims that polling suggests Johnson could produce a Commons majority of 140 for the Tories, while under all his rivals there would be a hung parliament. |
| The Telegraph has not put these figures on the front, but they are featured very prominently on a huge double-page spread on the inside. | The Telegraph has not put these figures on the front, but they are featured very prominently on a huge double-page spread on the inside. |
| But do these figures have any merit? In a lengthy Twitter thread, the politics professor Rob Ford explains why there are so many questionable assumptions in this research as to make these results highly suspect. His thread starts here. | But do these figures have any merit? In a lengthy Twitter thread, the politics professor Rob Ford explains why there are so many questionable assumptions in this research as to make these results highly suspect. His thread starts here. |
| For those confused about what this thread is discussing, its the "Boris would get a landslide" poll/reporting from yesterday evening: https://t.co/VbVnLsO9YZ | For those confused about what this thread is discussing, its the "Boris would get a landslide" poll/reporting from yesterday evening: https://t.co/VbVnLsO9YZ |
| And here is one of his key points. | And here is one of his key points. |
| 10/? There's nowt wrong with the fieldwork or representativeness of this poll. Its just badly designed, pretending to give info that its simply not possible for a poll to give. And neither our media, nor our politicians, seem capable on the whole of recognising this shortcoming | 10/? There's nowt wrong with the fieldwork or representativeness of this poll. Its just badly designed, pretending to give info that its simply not possible for a poll to give. And neither our media, nor our politicians, seem capable on the whole of recognising this shortcoming |
| Ford’s analysis is very sound, although there is probably a kernel of truth in the ComRes research - that Johnson is the currently the Tory candidate with most appeal to former Tories who are currently supporting the Brexit party. | Ford’s analysis is very sound, although there is probably a kernel of truth in the ComRes research - that Johnson is the currently the Tory candidate with most appeal to former Tories who are currently supporting the Brexit party. |
| But this ignores another point - which is that the Conservatives probably cannot win a general election with this group alone. As my colleague Heather Stewart said in a recent story, this is an argument made recently by Robert Hayward, a Tory peer and respected psephologist. Here is an extract from her story. | But this ignores another point - which is that the Conservatives probably cannot win a general election with this group alone. As my colleague Heather Stewart said in a recent story, this is an argument made recently by Robert Hayward, a Tory peer and respected psephologist. Here is an extract from her story. |
| [Hayward] said it would be impossible for the Tories to win an election with a leader who was not “transfer friendly”, and able to attract swing voters who were neither committed leavers nor remainers. | [Hayward] said it would be impossible for the Tories to win an election with a leader who was not “transfer friendly”, and able to attract swing voters who were neither committed leavers nor remainers. |
| “A Tory prime minister or leader can’t win without Brexiteers; but you actually can’t win without the people who don’t strongly identify with one side or the other, and are looking for good government,” he said. | “A Tory prime minister or leader can’t win without Brexiteers; but you actually can’t win without the people who don’t strongly identify with one side or the other, and are looking for good government,” he said. |
| And he said Johnson may not be the right person to do that because many voters have a “distinct antipathy” towards him. | And he said Johnson may not be the right person to do that because many voters have a “distinct antipathy” towards him. |
| He said that while Johnson was very popular with a section of the electorate, he was also the leadership frontrunner who voters were most likely to say would make a bad prime minister. | He said that while Johnson was very popular with a section of the electorate, he was also the leadership frontrunner who voters were most likely to say would make a bad prime minister. |
| Hayward pointed to a recent YouGov poll that suggested as many as 23% of respondents who had voted Conservative in 2017 thought Johnson would be a “very bad” prime minister. | Hayward pointed to a recent YouGov poll that suggested as many as 23% of respondents who had voted Conservative in 2017 thought Johnson would be a “very bad” prime minister. |
| Boris Johnson, the favourite in the Tory leadership contest, will break cover today and face the media for the first time in weeks, following complaints that such aversion to scrutiny is a travesty for someone likely to be the next prime minister. His team reject this claim, and say it is just that he has been focusing his efforts on talking to individual MPs, who at this stage are the electorate in the contest. He will be speaking this morning at his campaign launch. | Boris Johnson, the favourite in the Tory leadership contest, will break cover today and face the media for the first time in weeks, following complaints that such aversion to scrutiny is a travesty for someone likely to be the next prime minister. His team reject this claim, and say it is just that he has been focusing his efforts on talking to individual MPs, who at this stage are the electorate in the contest. He will be speaking this morning at his campaign launch. |
| As a warm-up, Liz Truss, the chief secretary to the Treasury and one of his most prominent backers, has been giving interviews on his behalf this morning. On the Today programme she did not have an easy time. | As a warm-up, Liz Truss, the chief secretary to the Treasury and one of his most prominent backers, has been giving interviews on his behalf this morning. On the Today programme she did not have an easy time. |
| Truss said that Johnson had “nothing to hide” when challenged about his character, including past lies and gaffes. | Truss said that Johnson had “nothing to hide” when challenged about his character, including past lies and gaffes. |
| Boris Johnson 'has nothing to hide', says Liz Truss | Boris Johnson 'has nothing to hide', says Liz Truss |
| She claimed the fact that he was being attacked so ferociously by his opponents was a response to his “huge public appeal”. When the accusation that Johnson was “the worst foreign secretary in living memory” was put to her by the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, she replied: | She claimed the fact that he was being attacked so ferociously by his opponents was a response to his “huge public appeal”. When the accusation that Johnson was “the worst foreign secretary in living memory” was put to her by the BBC Radio 4 Today programme, she replied: |
| I think it’s a sign - that he is being attacked shows the huge public appeal he has, the huge power he has to communicate. | I think it’s a sign - that he is being attacked shows the huge public appeal he has, the huge power he has to communicate. |
| His record is of being the most successful mayor of London we have had, of being an excellent foreign secretary who got countries around the world to take action against Russia by expelling their diplomats. | His record is of being the most successful mayor of London we have had, of being an excellent foreign secretary who got countries around the world to take action against Russia by expelling their diplomats. |
| She said that anyone who blamed him for contributing to the ongoing imprisonment of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe in Iran was an apologist for the Iranian regime. In 2017 Johnson wrongly said that Zaghari-Ratcliffe was in the country teaching journalism when she was jailed. He subsequently retracted this, but his comment was cited by the Iranian authorities to help justify her ongoing detention. But Truss said it was wrong to blame Johnson for Zaghari-Ratcliffe being in jail. She said: | She said that anyone who blamed him for contributing to the ongoing imprisonment of Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe in Iran was an apologist for the Iranian regime. In 2017 Johnson wrongly said that Zaghari-Ratcliffe was in the country teaching journalism when she was jailed. He subsequently retracted this, but his comment was cited by the Iranian authorities to help justify her ongoing detention. But Truss said it was wrong to blame Johnson for Zaghari-Ratcliffe being in jail. She said: |
| I think this is a complete misplacement of blame. | I think this is a complete misplacement of blame. |
| The people who are keeping Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe in jail are the Iranians. | The people who are keeping Nazanin Zaghari-Ratcliffe in jail are the Iranians. |
| This is an oppressive Iranian regime - I think it’s apologists for that regime who are putting the blame on Boris Johnson... | This is an oppressive Iranian regime - I think it’s apologists for that regime who are putting the blame on Boris Johnson... |
| The fact is he did a brilliant job in my opinion as foreign secretary... and in the case that you’ve just mentioned, it’s the Iranian regime who have held this innocent women in jail - let’s put the blame where it is really deserved. | The fact is he did a brilliant job in my opinion as foreign secretary... and in the case that you’ve just mentioned, it’s the Iranian regime who have held this innocent women in jail - let’s put the blame where it is really deserved. |
| Here is the agenda for the day. | Here is the agenda for the day. |
| 10.40am: Philip Hammond, the chanellor, speaks at a Bloomberg conference. | 10.40am: Philip Hammond, the chanellor, speaks at a Bloomberg conference. |
| 11am: Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, launches his campaign for the Tory leadership. | 11am: Boris Johnson, the former foreign secretary, launches his campaign for the Tory leadership. |
| 12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs. | 12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs. |
| Around 1pm: MPs started debating the cross-party motion intended to allow the Commons to vote on legislation to block a no-deal Brexit. The vote is expected mid afternoon. | Around 1pm: MPs started debating the cross-party motion intended to allow the Commons to vote on legislation to block a no-deal Brexit. The vote is expected mid afternoon. |
| 3.30pm: Sajid Javid, the home secretary, launches his campaign for the Tory leadership. | 3.30pm: Sajid Javid, the home secretary, launches his campaign for the Tory leadership. |
| 4pm: The Conservative backbench 1922 Committee holds a private hustings. The candidates speaking are, in order: Johnson, Esther McVey, Rory Stewart and Matt Hancock. | 4pm: The Conservative backbench 1922 Committee holds a private hustings. The candidates speaking are, in order: Johnson, Esther McVey, Rory Stewart and Matt Hancock. |
| As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing mostly on the Tory leadership contest and the Commons debate. I plan to post a summary when I wrap up at the end of the day. | As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing mostly on the Tory leadership contest and the Commons debate. I plan to post a summary when I wrap up at the end of the day. |
| You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. | You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe round-up of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. |
| If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. |
| I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. | I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. |
| If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. | If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. |