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| Tory leadership: Fox accuses Johnson of peddling 'supposition' not fact on Brexit trade options - live news | Tory leadership: Fox accuses Johnson of peddling 'supposition' not fact on Brexit trade options - live news |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, has just started giving evidence to the Commons Treasury committee. My colleague Graeme Wearden is covering it here. | |
| Bank of England predicts interest rate rises after 'smooth Brexit' - business live | |
| As the Independent reports, Lord Kerslake, the former head of the civil service, said in a speech last night that a Boris Johnson’s premiership could be an “opportunity for disaster”. He said: | |
| Boris has placed at the very centre of his campaign the commitment that we will leave the EU on 31 October, deal or no deal. This a complete hostage to fortune. | |
| At the same parliament has been clear, rightly in my view, that it will not countenance leaving the EU without a deal. It is always a good maxim in politics not to enter a room unless you know that you can get out of it. | |
| Boris Johnson has not only entered the room but he has put on the straitjacket, padlocked the door and started the tap running. | |
| Kerslake said Johnson was “good to work with” when they worked on housing issues together when Johnson was mayor of London. But he recalled Johnson cracking a joke about how “Out of every disaster comes an opportunity - or in my case an opportunity for another disaster.” Kerslake went on: “Boris as PM may just be another opportunity for disaster.” | |
| Jeremy Corbyn wants to back a second EU referendum but some of his inner circle seem to want Brexit to be carried out no matter what, Labour’s Margaret Beckett has said. As my colleague Rowena Mason and Jessica Elgot report, Beckett, a former foreign secretary who is campaigning for a second referendum, told the Today programme she thought the Labour leader was open to the idea but some of his closest advisers were preventing him from budging and would be prepared to allow a no-deal Brexit. Beckett said: | |
| I don’t get the impression that Jeremy himself is the stumbling block. There are people very close with great influence on him who are passionately opposed to it … and he wants to keep the party together as much as possible. | |
| Unfortunately, it’s looking more and more that some of the people who he wants to accept the majority view are not just expressing reservations but completely oppose, and I’m beginning to think some of them do actually want Britain to leave no matter what and they don’t give a toss. | |
| Here is Rowena and Jessica’s full story. | |
| Corbyn aides want Brexit no matter what, says Margaret Beckett | |
| Yesterday the German ambassador to UK, Peter Wittig, said his government would “talk to the last hour” to avoid a no-deal Brexit. He has also written a 1,500 word article in Handelsblatt which will be seen as a plea to the UK not to crash out of the EU on 31 October. In the piece he: | |
| Warns that a free trade agreement after a no-deal Brexit would be “enormously difficult”. | |
| Advocates a deal with “more than a conventional” third country special relationship between Britain and EU. | |
| Talks of the need for a continuing close military relationship. | |
| Says all countries must ask what their global status will be in 10, 15 years. | |
| Wittig says: | |
| Negotiating a free trade agreement after a “no-deal” Brexit would be enormously difficult. The UK’s obligations under the withdrawal agreement would be over, trust would be destroyed. We would not be able to return to the agenda immediately ... | |
| Short-term considerations must not prevail. We have to preserve the strategic view of Europe in the world: where will Europe stand in 10, 15, 20 years? Where do we want Europe to stand? Will the EU still play a role on the global map in a world dominated by the US and China: politically, economically, technologically, militarily? | |
| If we Europeans want to continue to sit at the table of the global powers of design in the future, we must join forces - also and especially in the case of Brexit. It is in the pan-European interest to keep Britain as the fifth largest economy in the world and - with France - Europe’s leading military power with veto power in the Security Council in joint orbit. This requires a high level of vision from all. | |
| The United Kingdom legally becomes a so-called “third country” as of the date of withdrawal. But we need more than a conventional third state relationship. We need a partnership of our own kind that is as close as possible, hence a new “special relationship” between the EU and the UK. | |
| Sir Bill Cash, the Tory Brexiter, has been tweeting this letter published in the Daily Telegraph implying that Gatt article 24 could be used quite easily to allow tariff-free trade to continue after a no-deal Brexit. | Sir Bill Cash, the Tory Brexiter, has been tweeting this letter published in the Daily Telegraph implying that Gatt article 24 could be used quite easily to allow tariff-free trade to continue after a no-deal Brexit. |
| This letter in the Telegraph has undisputed legal authority. It demolishes the mischief-making which has been generated over Article 24 of the GATT agreement. pic.twitter.com/WCrz0JHuHM | This letter in the Telegraph has undisputed legal authority. It demolishes the mischief-making which has been generated over Article 24 of the GATT agreement. pic.twitter.com/WCrz0JHuHM |
| In fact, if you read the letter closely, you will see that what it is saying about how Gatt article 24 works is much the same as what Liam Fox is saying in his LinkedIn article. (See 9.23am.) The difference between the two sides lies in their assessment of the EU’s willingness to use this mechanism. Fox is arguing that, in the event of the UK and the EU failing to negotiate a withdrawal agreement, there is no prospect of the EU saying that, actually, they have agreed in principle to conclude a free trade deal in the future. But Cash seems to think this would be an option. | In fact, if you read the letter closely, you will see that what it is saying about how Gatt article 24 works is much the same as what Liam Fox is saying in his LinkedIn article. (See 9.23am.) The difference between the two sides lies in their assessment of the EU’s willingness to use this mechanism. Fox is arguing that, in the event of the UK and the EU failing to negotiate a withdrawal agreement, there is no prospect of the EU saying that, actually, they have agreed in principle to conclude a free trade deal in the future. But Cash seems to think this would be an option. |
| In his article Fox also says that article 24 would not be a panacea anyway because it only covers tariffs. It does not cover “more complex behind the border regulatory issues affecting trade”, he says. | In his article Fox also says that article 24 would not be a panacea anyway because it only covers tariffs. It does not cover “more complex behind the border regulatory issues affecting trade”, he says. |
| Boris Johnson would be able to ignore parliament’s efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit and blame the EU if it refuses to give the UK a better deal, Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, has said. As my colleagues Rowena Mason and Matthew Weaver report, Raab, who is now backing Johnson for the Tory leadership, told the Today programme that any motion from MPs against a no-deal Brexit would have “zero legal effect” and could be overridden. But Rory Stewart, the international development secretary who is now backing Jeremy Hunt for the leadership, told the same programme that parliament had not exhausted all options to prevent no deal. He said: | Boris Johnson would be able to ignore parliament’s efforts to stop a no-deal Brexit and blame the EU if it refuses to give the UK a better deal, Dominic Raab, the former Brexit secretary, has said. As my colleagues Rowena Mason and Matthew Weaver report, Raab, who is now backing Johnson for the Tory leadership, told the Today programme that any motion from MPs against a no-deal Brexit would have “zero legal effect” and could be overridden. But Rory Stewart, the international development secretary who is now backing Jeremy Hunt for the leadership, told the same programme that parliament had not exhausted all options to prevent no deal. He said: |
| Parliament is against no deal. It is only the legal default because parliament made it the legal default. Parliament can unmake it the legal default. There are many, many opportunities in legislation that have to brought forward, that could be amended in order to stop a no-deal Brexit. | Parliament is against no deal. It is only the legal default because parliament made it the legal default. Parliament can unmake it the legal default. There are many, many opportunities in legislation that have to brought forward, that could be amended in order to stop a no-deal Brexit. |
| Here is our full write-up of the Raab and Stewart interviews. | Here is our full write-up of the Raab and Stewart interviews. |
| Boris Johnson could ignore efforts to block no deal, says Raab | Boris Johnson could ignore efforts to block no deal, says Raab |
| At one stage in his TalkRadio interview yesterday Boris Johnson described his Brexit strategy as a set of three preferences, with plan A as his preference, plan B as his fallback, and plan C as the fallback to the fallback. Charlie Cooper sums them up well in the Politico Europe London Playbook briefing this morning. | At one stage in his TalkRadio interview yesterday Boris Johnson described his Brexit strategy as a set of three preferences, with plan A as his preference, plan B as his fallback, and plan C as the fallback to the fallback. Charlie Cooper sums them up well in the Politico Europe London Playbook briefing this morning. |
| Plan A: A deal with the EU replacing the Northern Ireland backstop aspect of May’s withdrawal agreement with “alternative arrangements” that will be brought up to speed during a standstill transition period much like the one agreed by May. NB: The EU has said repeatedly the withdrawal agreement is not up for renegotiation. | Plan A: A deal with the EU replacing the Northern Ireland backstop aspect of May’s withdrawal agreement with “alternative arrangements” that will be brought up to speed during a standstill transition period much like the one agreed by May. NB: The EU has said repeatedly the withdrawal agreement is not up for renegotiation. |
| Plan B: If (when?) the EU says no, seek agreement from Brussels for a standstill on tariff rates under article 24 of the World Trade Organisation’s general agreement on tariffs and trade (sigh) while the two sides work towards a free trade agreement. | Plan B: If (when?) the EU says no, seek agreement from Brussels for a standstill on tariff rates under article 24 of the World Trade Organisation’s general agreement on tariffs and trade (sigh) while the two sides work towards a free trade agreement. |
| Plan C: If this fails, no deal on October 31 with full tariffs on Day 1, with only those preparations and parachute arrangements unilaterally planned by the U.K and the EU in place. Throughout, the £39bn divorce payment agreed by May will be withheld till Johnson is satisfied by the EU’s commitments on trade. | Plan C: If this fails, no deal on October 31 with full tariffs on Day 1, with only those preparations and parachute arrangements unilaterally planned by the U.K and the EU in place. Throughout, the £39bn divorce payment agreed by May will be withheld till Johnson is satisfied by the EU’s commitments on trade. |
| Given that plan A is almost certainly impossible - even if the EU was willing to negotiate a new withdrawal agreement, which it says it isn’t, almost no one thinks that such a deal could be signed and legislated for in the UK before 31 October - there is increased focus on plan B. Yesterday Johnson scaled down his assertions about the potential of article 24, accepting that the UK could not use it unilaterally, but still claiming it was a viable means of keeping EU-UK trade tariff fee in the event of there being no deal. | Given that plan A is almost certainly impossible - even if the EU was willing to negotiate a new withdrawal agreement, which it says it isn’t, almost no one thinks that such a deal could be signed and legislated for in the UK before 31 October - there is increased focus on plan B. Yesterday Johnson scaled down his assertions about the potential of article 24, accepting that the UK could not use it unilaterally, but still claiming it was a viable means of keeping EU-UK trade tariff fee in the event of there being no deal. |
| But, overnight, Liam Fox, the international trade secretary has pitched in, using an article to effectively accuse Johnson of of peddling “supposition” not fact on this point. Fox is supporting Jeremy Hunt for the Tory leadership. But he is also a hardline Brexiter, whose instinctive Brexit views are much closer to Johnson’s than Hunt. And, given his cabinet job, he is also the one minister who ought to know what he is talking about on the matter of Gatt. | But, overnight, Liam Fox, the international trade secretary has pitched in, using an article to effectively accuse Johnson of of peddling “supposition” not fact on this point. Fox is supporting Jeremy Hunt for the Tory leadership. But he is also a hardline Brexiter, whose instinctive Brexit views are much closer to Johnson’s than Hunt. And, given his cabinet job, he is also the one minister who ought to know what he is talking about on the matter of Gatt. |
| Here is LinkedIn article. And here is an extract: | Here is LinkedIn article. And here is an extract: |
| Some commentators have suggested that, in a ‘no deal’ scenario, the UK could maintain its existing trading relationship with the European Union for up to ten years by claiming exemption from the WTO’s rules, under article XXIV:5 of the general agreement on tariffs and trade (Gatt). | Some commentators have suggested that, in a ‘no deal’ scenario, the UK could maintain its existing trading relationship with the European Union for up to ten years by claiming exemption from the WTO’s rules, under article XXIV:5 of the general agreement on tariffs and trade (Gatt). |
| This is not the case. Gatt article XXIV permits the establishment of free trade agreements and customs unions as an exception to the ‘most favoured nation’ principle at the WTO - namely, that WTO members cannot give preferential treatment to products and services originating from one trading partner over others. | This is not the case. Gatt article XXIV permits the establishment of free trade agreements and customs unions as an exception to the ‘most favoured nation’ principle at the WTO - namely, that WTO members cannot give preferential treatment to products and services originating from one trading partner over others. |
| However, in order to benefit from the terms of article XXIV, there must be an agreement between two WTO members as to the elimination of duties and other restrictive regulations on substantially all trade. Therefore, article XXIV would not, by itself, allow the UK to maintain tariff-free trade with the EU in the absence of a negotiated agreement ... | However, in order to benefit from the terms of article XXIV, there must be an agreement between two WTO members as to the elimination of duties and other restrictive regulations on substantially all trade. Therefore, article XXIV would not, by itself, allow the UK to maintain tariff-free trade with the EU in the absence of a negotiated agreement ... |
| A ‘no deal’ scenario, by definition, suggests that there would be no mutual agreement between the UK and the EU on any temporary or permanent arrangement. In those circumstances article XXIV cannot be used. | A ‘no deal’ scenario, by definition, suggests that there would be no mutual agreement between the UK and the EU on any temporary or permanent arrangement. In those circumstances article XXIV cannot be used. |
| The European Union has made it clear on a number of occasions that full tariffs will be applied to the United Kingdom in the event of ‘no-deal’. | The European Union has made it clear on a number of occasions that full tariffs will be applied to the United Kingdom in the event of ‘no-deal’. |
| The director-general of the WTO, Roberto Azevedo, has also confirmed there must be a bilateral agreement between the EU and the UK in order to claim an implementation period under Gatt article XXIV. “Once they have an agreement I think article XXIV could give them some time for implementation of that agreement,” he told Bloomberg. “But the first question is the agreement itself” ... | The director-general of the WTO, Roberto Azevedo, has also confirmed there must be a bilateral agreement between the EU and the UK in order to claim an implementation period under Gatt article XXIV. “Once they have an agreement I think article XXIV could give them some time for implementation of that agreement,” he told Bloomberg. “But the first question is the agreement itself” ... |
| It is important that public debate on this topic is conducted on the basis of fact rather than supposition, so that we are able to make decisions in the best interests of our country. | It is important that public debate on this topic is conducted on the basis of fact rather than supposition, so that we are able to make decisions in the best interests of our country. |
| We will doubtless hear much more on this today, including from Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, who is giving evidence to MPs. At one point yesterday Johnson said that Carney was wrong about Gatt - before he retracted and accepted (correctly) that Carney might not have said what Johnson thought he had said. | We will doubtless hear much more on this today, including from Mark Carney, the governor of the Bank of England, who is giving evidence to MPs. At one point yesterday Johnson said that Carney was wrong about Gatt - before he retracted and accepted (correctly) that Carney might not have said what Johnson thought he had said. |
| Here is the agenda for the day. | Here is the agenda for the day. |
| 9.30am: Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, gives a speech to the Telegraph’s future of trade and export forum. | 9.30am: Liam Fox, the international trade secretary, gives a speech to the Telegraph’s future of trade and export forum. |
| 10am: Damian Hinds, the education secretary, gives evidence to the Commons education committee. | 10am: Damian Hinds, the education secretary, gives evidence to the Commons education committee. |
| 10am: Jo Swinson and Sir Ed Davey take part in a Lib Dem leadership hustings in the Commons. | 10am: Jo Swinson and Sir Ed Davey take part in a Lib Dem leadership hustings in the Commons. |
| 10.15am: Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee. | 10.15am: Mark Carney, governor of the Bank of England, gives evidence to the Commons Treasury committee. |
| 12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs. | 12pm: Theresa May faces Jeremy Corbyn at PMQs. |
| 12pm: Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, speaks at a Policy Exchange event on the backstop. | 12pm: Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, speaks at a Policy Exchange event on the backstop. |
| Afternoon: Theresa May gives a speech on housing in Manchester. | Afternoon: Theresa May gives a speech on housing in Manchester. |
| 3pm: Rory Stewart, the international development secretary, gives evidence to the Commons international development committee. | 3pm: Rory Stewart, the international development secretary, gives evidence to the Commons international development committee. |
| As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing mostly on the Tory leadership contest. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up. | As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web, although I will be focusing mostly on the Tory leadership contest. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up. |
| You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. | You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. |
| If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. |
| I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. | I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. |
| If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. | If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter. |