This article is from the source 'nytimes' and was first published or seen on . It last changed over 40 days ago and won't be checked again for changes.
You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.nytimes.com/2019/07/05/business/economy/june-jobs-report.html
The article has changed 12 times. There is an RSS feed of changes available.
| Version 6 | Version 7 |
|---|---|
| U.S. Jobs Report: Gain of 224,000 in a June Rebound | U.S. Jobs Report: Gain of 224,000 in a June Rebound |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Employers added 224,000 jobs in June, the Labor Department reported on Friday. Economists had expected a gain of about 170,000. | |
| The unemployment rate was 3.7 percent, up from 3.6 percent in May. | The unemployment rate was 3.7 percent, up from 3.6 percent in May. |
| Average earnings rose 6 cents an hour from May, and are up 3.1 percent over the past year. | Average earnings rose 6 cents an hour from May, and are up 3.1 percent over the past year. |
| Estimates of job growth in April and May were revised down slightly, by a combined 11,000 jobs. | Estimates of job growth in April and May were revised down slightly, by a combined 11,000 jobs. |
| The job market rebounded last month after a dismal May, easing fears that the record-setting economic expansion could be running out of steam. | The job market rebounded last month after a dismal May, easing fears that the record-setting economic expansion could be running out of steam. |
| The June gain was stronger than economists had predicted, suggesting that trade tensions and cooling global growth have done little to sap the job market’s fundamental strength. Unemployment is near a five-decade low, wage growth is solid and employers have added jobs for 105 consecutive months, easily a record. | The June gain was stronger than economists had predicted, suggesting that trade tensions and cooling global growth have done little to sap the job market’s fundamental strength. Unemployment is near a five-decade low, wage growth is solid and employers have added jobs for 105 consecutive months, easily a record. |
| “There’s lots of talk about uncertainty, and maybe that’s going to lend itself to a weakening in hiring, but we haven’t actually seen it happen yet,” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. | “There’s lots of talk about uncertainty, and maybe that’s going to lend itself to a weakening in hiring, but we haven’t actually seen it happen yet,” said Michelle Meyer, chief economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch. |
| That resilience is good news for workers, who are benefiting from what is now, at least unofficially, the longest economic expansion on record. And it is good news for President Trump, who is expected to make the strength of the economy a centerpiece of his re-election campaign. But it could complicate the decision facing Federal Reserve policymakers, who are weighing whether to cut interest rates to forestall a downturn, a jolt of stimulus that investors were expecting. | That resilience is good news for workers, who are benefiting from what is now, at least unofficially, the longest economic expansion on record. And it is good news for President Trump, who is expected to make the strength of the economy a centerpiece of his re-election campaign. But it could complicate the decision facing Federal Reserve policymakers, who are weighing whether to cut interest rates to forestall a downturn, a jolt of stimulus that investors were expecting. |
| Even with June’s healthy growth, there are signs the job market has cooled since last year. Employers have added an average of 171,000 jobs per month over the past three months, down from 223,000 per month for all of 2018. Wage growth was disappointing in June, and has stalled in recent months. | Even with June’s healthy growth, there are signs the job market has cooled since last year. Employers have added an average of 171,000 jobs per month over the past three months, down from 223,000 per month for all of 2018. Wage growth was disappointing in June, and has stalled in recent months. |
| Friday’s report might have been good news for the economy, but investors were less enthusiastic: Stocks fell slightly after the open of trading, with the S&P dropping 0.7 percent after trading commenced on Wall Street. | Friday’s report might have been good news for the economy, but investors were less enthusiastic: Stocks fell slightly after the open of trading, with the S&P dropping 0.7 percent after trading commenced on Wall Street. |
| Investors have been expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its meeting at the end of the month, perhaps by as much as a half a percentage point. June’s strong job growth, however, may convince policymakers that such aggressive action is unnecessary. | Investors have been expecting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates at its meeting at the end of the month, perhaps by as much as a half a percentage point. June’s strong job growth, however, may convince policymakers that such aggressive action is unnecessary. |
| “That’s probably off the agenda,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, referring to the possibility of a half-point cut. | “That’s probably off the agenda,” said Ian Shepherdson, chief economist for Pantheon Macroeconomics, referring to the possibility of a half-point cut. |
| A smaller, quarter-point cut remains likely, however. Many Fed officials will probably focus on the weakness in hourly earnings, which means wages are unlikely to put upward pressure on inflation. | A smaller, quarter-point cut remains likely, however. Many Fed officials will probably focus on the weakness in hourly earnings, which means wages are unlikely to put upward pressure on inflation. |
| On Friday, the market for Fed funds futures — where traders bet on the direction of the Fed’s key monetary policy target — continued to imply certainty that the central bank will cut rates at the July 30-31 meeting. | On Friday, the market for Fed funds futures — where traders bet on the direction of the Fed’s key monetary policy target — continued to imply certainty that the central bank will cut rates at the July 30-31 meeting. |
| Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has signaled that he is prepared to act if the economy slows further, but has stopped short of promising an imminent rate cut. Investors will be watching Mr. Powell’s testimony before Congress next week closely for any sign that his views have changed. | Jerome H. Powell, the Fed chair, has signaled that he is prepared to act if the economy slows further, but has stopped short of promising an imminent rate cut. Investors will be watching Mr. Powell’s testimony before Congress next week closely for any sign that his views have changed. |
| Mr. Trump on Friday continued to urge Mr. Powell to act, although he said the country was “doing unbelievably well economically” even without his help. | |
| “I personally think the Fed should drop rates,” Mr. Trump told reporters, adding that the economy would be “a rocket ship” if the Fed did so. | |
| June marked the 10th anniversary of the official end of the Great Recession. And unless a new recession has begun (something economists often don’t know for several months), the expansion is now the longest on record. | June marked the 10th anniversary of the official end of the Great Recession. And unless a new recession has begun (something economists often don’t know for several months), the expansion is now the longest on record. |
| The recovery has been more remarkable for its durability than for its strength. Hiring has been slower than in many past rebounds, and wage growth has been anemic until recently. Only lately have the gains extended to black and Hispanic workers, the less-educated, and those facing discrimination or other barriers to employment. | The recovery has been more remarkable for its durability than for its strength. Hiring has been slower than in many past rebounds, and wage growth has been anemic until recently. Only lately have the gains extended to black and Hispanic workers, the less-educated, and those facing discrimination or other barriers to employment. |
| The job market picked up last year, at least partly because of tax cuts and government spending increases that provided a short-term boost to economic growth. But those effects are fading. | The job market picked up last year, at least partly because of tax cuts and government spending increases that provided a short-term boost to economic growth. But those effects are fading. |
| “Everyone knew the pace was going to slow,” said Brett Ryan, an economist at Deutsche Bank. “The question is if it’s going to slow more sharply.” | “Everyone knew the pace was going to slow,” said Brett Ryan, an economist at Deutsche Bank. “The question is if it’s going to slow more sharply.” |
| Still, the expansion has repeatedly defied predictions that it is nearing an end. Economic research has found that periods of economic growth do not simply peter out — some outside force has to cause them. | Still, the expansion has repeatedly defied predictions that it is nearing an end. Economic research has found that periods of economic growth do not simply peter out — some outside force has to cause them. |
| Some economists feared that Mr. Trump’s trade war could be the shove that pushed the United States into a recession. But there is little evidence of that. Manufacturers added 17,000 jobs in June, the most since January. Data from the Institute for Supply Management this week showed that the industry’s struggles continued in June, although the decline wasn’t as severe as some economists had predicted. | Some economists feared that Mr. Trump’s trade war could be the shove that pushed the United States into a recession. But there is little evidence of that. Manufacturers added 17,000 jobs in June, the most since January. Data from the Institute for Supply Management this week showed that the industry’s struggles continued in June, although the decline wasn’t as severe as some economists had predicted. |
| In addition, the much larger service sector regained its footing in June after unexpected weakness in May. Retailers continued to shed jobs, but those cuts were more than offset by increased hiring by warehouses and trucking companies, which are benefiting from the rise of online shopping. Other consumer-driven industries also added jobs, a sign that consumers have not lost confidence in the economy’s strength. | In addition, the much larger service sector regained its footing in June after unexpected weakness in May. Retailers continued to shed jobs, but those cuts were more than offset by increased hiring by warehouses and trucking companies, which are benefiting from the rise of online shopping. Other consumer-driven industries also added jobs, a sign that consumers have not lost confidence in the economy’s strength. |
| “Confidence is high, income growth is strong, layoffs are basically zero,” Mr. Shepherdson said. | “Confidence is high, income growth is strong, layoffs are basically zero,” Mr. Shepherdson said. |
| Still, economists say they don’t expect manufacturing to be the engine of growth that it was early in Mr. Trump’s term. | Still, economists say they don’t expect manufacturing to be the engine of growth that it was early in Mr. Trump’s term. |
| At Taco Metals, a Miami-based manufacturer of equipment for the recreational marine industry, tariffs have meant higher costs for the raw materials and parts it imports from China and other countries. That has added to fears from boat builders and dealers about how long the good times can last in an industry that is highly sensitive to the broader economy. | At Taco Metals, a Miami-based manufacturer of equipment for the recreational marine industry, tariffs have meant higher costs for the raw materials and parts it imports from China and other countries. That has added to fears from boat builders and dealers about how long the good times can last in an industry that is highly sensitive to the broader economy. |
| “The tariffs just kind of forced people to think twice about is this going to continue,” said Bill Kushner, a vice president at the company. “There’s starting to be more hesitation on both the manufacturing side and the dealer side.” | “The tariffs just kind of forced people to think twice about is this going to continue,” said Bill Kushner, a vice president at the company. “There’s starting to be more hesitation on both the manufacturing side and the dealer side.” |
| As customers pull back, Mr. Kushner’s company, which employs about 150 workers in Florida and Tennessee, is doing the same. They are holding off on some equipment purchases and waiting to fill some positions. | As customers pull back, Mr. Kushner’s company, which employs about 150 workers in Florida and Tennessee, is doing the same. They are holding off on some equipment purchases and waiting to fill some positions. |
| “It’s just caused us to take a little step back and reassess some of the direction and make sure we’re not jumping the gun,” Mr. Kushner said. “It’s like, ‘Well, are we sure we’re going to need to do this, or should we try to outsource?’” | “It’s just caused us to take a little step back and reassess some of the direction and make sure we’re not jumping the gun,” Mr. Kushner said. “It’s like, ‘Well, are we sure we’re going to need to do this, or should we try to outsource?’” |
| The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7 percent in June, but don’t read too much into that — the rate often bounces around from one month to the next, and it remains near a five-decade low. And the labor force grew by 335,000 people, a sign that the strong job market is drawing workers off the sidelines. | The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.7 percent in June, but don’t read too much into that — the rate often bounces around from one month to the next, and it remains near a five-decade low. And the labor force grew by 335,000 people, a sign that the strong job market is drawing workers off the sidelines. |
| With workers scarce, companies are finding they must work harder to fill even entry-level jobs, said Jason Guggisberg, vice president for national accounts for Adecco, a staffing firm. He said his clients, which include warehouse and logistics companies, were dropping educational requirements, training workers who lack experience and easing up on drug testing. And they are learning to move quickly to fill jobs. | With workers scarce, companies are finding they must work harder to fill even entry-level jobs, said Jason Guggisberg, vice president for national accounts for Adecco, a staffing firm. He said his clients, which include warehouse and logistics companies, were dropping educational requirements, training workers who lack experience and easing up on drug testing. And they are learning to move quickly to fill jobs. |
| “Right now it is really about speed,” he said. “When you’re ready to hire, you’ve got to hire. Because in 48 hours those people may not be there.” | “Right now it is really about speed,” he said. “When you’re ready to hire, you’ve got to hire. Because in 48 hours those people may not be there.” |
| The best way to attract workers, however, is still to raise pay. And Mr. Guggisberg said companies are reluctant to do so. | The best way to attract workers, however, is still to raise pay. And Mr. Guggisberg said companies are reluctant to do so. |
| “We don’t see any signs of a major wage increases,” he said. | “We don’t see any signs of a major wage increases,” he said. |
| Matt Phillips contributed reporting. | Matt Phillips contributed reporting. |