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'Like Corporal Jones ... running around like idiots' - EU commissioner ridicules UK's Brexit negotiators - live news 'Like Corporal Jones ... running around like idiots' - EU commissioner ridicules UK's Brexit negotiators - live news
(32 minutes later)
Knife crime in England and Wales hit a record high in 2018/19, up 8% on the previous year, the Press Association reports. Police recorded 43,516 offences involving knives or sharp objects in the year to March 2019, the highest since comparable records began in 2011. The figures released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) do not include Greater Manchester Police, which records data differently. There was a rise of 3,301 knife crime offences from 2017/18, with the volume of offences up 42% since the year ending March 2011. The total number of homicides in 2018/19 increased slightly to 701 offences from 693 in the previous 12 months, excluding terror attacks. Mark Bangs, from the ONS Centre for Crime and Justice, said:
The picture of crime is a complex one. Overall levels of crime have remained steady, but this is not the case for all types of crime.
For example, overall levels of violence have remained steady but we have seen increases in violent crimes involving knives and sharp instruments.
We have seen increases in fraud and overall theft, but decreases in burglary following recent rises.
The RAF is heading into space, Penny Mordaunt, the defence secretary, told a conference this morning. As the Press Association reports, the UK is joining Operation Olympic Defender, a US-led international unit aimed at strengthening deterrence against hostile actors in space and at stopping the spread of debris in orbit. Mordaunt told the Air and Space Power Conference in central London that an RAF pilot is set to be seconded to the Virgin Orbit small satellite programme. She noted that Virgin Orbit already has pilots with astronaut training and it is carrying out research into launching small satellites into space from the wing of a Boeing 747. She said:
Science fiction is becoming science fact. One day I want to see RAF pilots earning their space wings and flying beyond the stratosphere.
So, today I can announce we’re making a giant leap in that direction by working towards placing a test pilot into the Virgin Orbit programme.
Here is my colleague Larry Elliott’s story about what the Office for Budget Responsiblity is saying about the impact of a no-deal Brexit.
No-deal Brexit would plunge Britain into a recession, says OBR
As mentioned earlier (see 9.45am), the OBR say itself that it’s no-deal stress test is not based on a worst-case scenario.
And Philip Hammond, the chancellor, has just been making this point too. In a clip broadcast by Sky, Hammond said that a no-deal Brexit of the kind being considered by some prominent Brexiters (he meant Boris Johnson) would hit the economy much harder. He explained:
The report that the OBR have published this morning shows that even in the most benign version of a no-deal exit there would be a very significant hit to the UK economy, a very significant reduction in tax revenues and a big increase in our national debt - a recession caused by a no-deal Brexit.
But that most benign version is not the version that is being talked about by prominent Brexiters. They are talking about a much harder version, which would cause much more disruption to our economy. And the OBR is clear that in that less benign version of no-deal the hit would be much greater, the impact would be much harder, the recession would be bigger.
So I greatly fear the impact on our economy and our public finances of the kind of no deal Brexit that is realistically being discussed now.
In his press conference Robert Chote, the head of the OBR, explained the difference between the more benign no-deal that on which the OBR stress test was based, and a more disruptive no-deal. He said:
We’ve looked at the fiscal implications of the less severe of the two no-deal, no-transition scenarios set out by the International Monetary Fund in its World Economic Outlook. This scenario is not necessarily the most likely outcome, and it is relatively benign compared to some, for example, assuming no major short-term border disruptions. A more disruptive outcome, closer to the Bank of England scenario that we used for our stress test two years ago, would have more severe consequences.
As Stephen Barclay, the Brexit secretary, told MPs yesterday, the government’s no-deal planning does assume delays at the border.
Tonight the BBC is showing a Panorama programme made by Nick Robinson exploring why the Brexit talks failed. Among the people he interviewed was Frans Timmermans, the first vice president of the European commission.Tonight the BBC is showing a Panorama programme made by Nick Robinson exploring why the Brexit talks failed. Among the people he interviewed was Frans Timmermans, the first vice president of the European commission.
As Politico Europe reports, Timmermans said that before the negotiations started the EU assumed that the British team would be “brilliant” because of the professionalism of their civil service. But the EU quickly realised this was not the case, Timmermans said. He went on:As Politico Europe reports, Timmermans said that before the negotiations started the EU assumed that the British team would be “brilliant” because of the professionalism of their civil service. But the EU quickly realised this was not the case, Timmermans said. He went on:
And then the first time I saw public utterances by David Davis and I saw him not coming [to Brussels], not negotiating, grandstanding elsewhere I thought: ‘Oh my God, they haven’t got a plan, they haven’t got a plan’.And then the first time I saw public utterances by David Davis and I saw him not coming [to Brussels], not negotiating, grandstanding elsewhere I thought: ‘Oh my God, they haven’t got a plan, they haven’t got a plan’.
That was really shocking frankly, because the damage if you don’t have a plan — you know, we see it — time’s running out and you don’t have a plan, it’s like Lance Corporal Jones — you know, ‘Don’t panic, don’t panic’, running around like idiots.That was really shocking frankly, because the damage if you don’t have a plan — you know, we see it — time’s running out and you don’t have a plan, it’s like Lance Corporal Jones — you know, ‘Don’t panic, don’t panic’, running around like idiots.
Lord Callanan, a Brexit minister, has responded with his own Dad’s Army quote, my colleague Jennifer Rankin reports.Lord Callanan, a Brexit minister, has responded with his own Dad’s Army quote, my colleague Jennifer Rankin reports.
Brexit war of words via Dad's Army lines.Bx minister Callanan responds to Timmermans "running around like idiots” comments."If he was such a big fan of Dad’s army he would know the riposte from Captain Mainwaring to such comments: ’stupid boy’"Brexit war of words via Dad's Army lines.Bx minister Callanan responds to Timmermans "running around like idiots” comments."If he was such a big fan of Dad’s army he would know the riposte from Captain Mainwaring to such comments: ’stupid boy’"
And here is an extract from what the OBR report says about a no-deal Brexit.And here is an extract from what the OBR report says about a no-deal Brexit.
In Chapter 10 we carry out a fiscal ‘stress test’ that quantifies the impact on the public finances of a particular no-deal, no-transition Brexit scenario, namely the less disruptive of the two presented by the IMF in its April 2019 World Economic Outlook. While it is a scenario, rather than a forecast, it is nevertheless useful for exploring the channels through which the public finances might respond in the case of a no-deal Brexit.In Chapter 10 we carry out a fiscal ‘stress test’ that quantifies the impact on the public finances of a particular no-deal, no-transition Brexit scenario, namely the less disruptive of the two presented by the IMF in its April 2019 World Economic Outlook. While it is a scenario, rather than a forecast, it is nevertheless useful for exploring the channels through which the public finances might respond in the case of a no-deal Brexit.
Heightened uncertainty and declining confidence deter investment, while higher trade barriers with the EU weigh on exports. Together, these push the economy into recession, with asset prices and the pound falling sharply. Real GDP falls by 2% by the end of 2020 and is 4% below our March forecast by that point. Higher trade barriers also slow growth in potential productivity, while lower net inward migration reduces labour force growth, so potential output is lower than the baseline throughout the scenario (and beyond). The imposition of tariffs and the sterling depreciation raise inflation and squeeze real household incomes, but the monetary policy committee is able to cut bank rate to support demand, helping to bring output back towards potential and inflation back towards target.Heightened uncertainty and declining confidence deter investment, while higher trade barriers with the EU weigh on exports. Together, these push the economy into recession, with asset prices and the pound falling sharply. Real GDP falls by 2% by the end of 2020 and is 4% below our March forecast by that point. Higher trade barriers also slow growth in potential productivity, while lower net inward migration reduces labour force growth, so potential output is lower than the baseline throughout the scenario (and beyond). The imposition of tariffs and the sterling depreciation raise inflation and squeeze real household incomes, but the monetary policy committee is able to cut bank rate to support demand, helping to bring output back towards potential and inflation back towards target.
Borrowing is around £30bn a year higher than our March forecast from 2020-21 onwards. Lower receipts – in particular income tax and NICs (due to the recession) and capital taxes (due to weaker asset prices) – explain most of the deterioration. These are partly offset by lower debt interest spending (thanks to lower interest rates and RPI inflation) and the revenue raised customs duties (which are treated as EU rather than UK taxes in the baseline). Higher borrowing and the assumed rollover of Term Funding Scheme loans leave public sector net debt around 12% of GDP higher than our March forecast by 2023-24.Borrowing is around £30bn a year higher than our March forecast from 2020-21 onwards. Lower receipts – in particular income tax and NICs (due to the recession) and capital taxes (due to weaker asset prices) – explain most of the deterioration. These are partly offset by lower debt interest spending (thanks to lower interest rates and RPI inflation) and the revenue raised customs duties (which are treated as EU rather than UK taxes in the baseline). Higher borrowing and the assumed rollover of Term Funding Scheme loans leave public sector net debt around 12% of GDP higher than our March forecast by 2023-24.
The OBR also says this stress test is “by no means a worst-case scenario under a no-deal, no-transition Brexit”.The OBR also says this stress test is “by no means a worst-case scenario under a no-deal, no-transition Brexit”.
The Office for Budget Responsibility’s 300-page Fiscal Risks Report is here (pdf).The Office for Budget Responsibility’s 300-page Fiscal Risks Report is here (pdf).
My colleague Graeme Wearden is covering the publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Fiscal Risks Report on his business live blog here.My colleague Graeme Wearden is covering the publication of the Office for Budget Responsibility’s Fiscal Risks Report on his business live blog here.
No-deal Brexit 'would send UK into recession', forecasters fear - business liveNo-deal Brexit 'would send UK into recession', forecasters fear - business live
The blog also has a link to a live feed from the OBR’s press conference.The blog also has a link to a live feed from the OBR’s press conference.
This is from Sky’s Ed Conway.This is from Sky’s Ed Conway.
Breaking: @OBR_UK warns that a no deal Brexit could cause leave a £30bn hole in the public financesBreaking: @OBR_UK warns that a no deal Brexit could cause leave a £30bn hole in the public finances
MPs trying to use parliamentary votes to stop a no-deal Brexit have not had much luck recently. Last month the government comfortably defeated a Labour attempt to allow backbenchers to take control of the Commons timetable which, if passed, might have allowed a bill opposing no-deal to be passed. Last week the Speaker refused to call a Dominic Grieve amendment that would definitely prevented the next prime minister proroguing parliament in the autumn to facilitate a no-deal Brexit. Grieve also lost votes on two other related amendments. But he did win a vote on a move saying the government would have to publish fortnightly reports in the autumn on progress towards restoring the power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland. He acknowledged that this on its own would not necessarily stop an autumn prorogation, but he said he hoped peers would beef it up in the Lords. But even this relatively anaemic amendment only passed by one vote, and that was just because a government whip, Jo Churchill, forgot to cast her vote.MPs trying to use parliamentary votes to stop a no-deal Brexit have not had much luck recently. Last month the government comfortably defeated a Labour attempt to allow backbenchers to take control of the Commons timetable which, if passed, might have allowed a bill opposing no-deal to be passed. Last week the Speaker refused to call a Dominic Grieve amendment that would definitely prevented the next prime minister proroguing parliament in the autumn to facilitate a no-deal Brexit. Grieve also lost votes on two other related amendments. But he did win a vote on a move saying the government would have to publish fortnightly reports in the autumn on progress towards restoring the power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland. He acknowledged that this on its own would not necessarily stop an autumn prorogation, but he said he hoped peers would beef it up in the Lords. But even this relatively anaemic amendment only passed by one vote, and that was just because a government whip, Jo Churchill, forgot to cast her vote.
Last night the House of Lords did beef up the original Grieve proposal, by passing an amendment saying there would have to be debates on those fortnightly reports mandated by Grieve. Whether this would stop a new PM proroguing parliament is a matter of debate, but at the very least it would provide stronger legal grounds for a court challenge against a decision to prorogue.Last night the House of Lords did beef up the original Grieve proposal, by passing an amendment saying there would have to be debates on those fortnightly reports mandated by Grieve. Whether this would stop a new PM proroguing parliament is a matter of debate, but at the very least it would provide stronger legal grounds for a court challenge against a decision to prorogue.
Today the government will try to reverse that decision in the Commons. At one level it is just a dispute about a narrow procedural amendment, but of course this has become a contest about whether or not parliament should be willing to contemplate a no-deal Brexit.Today the government will try to reverse that decision in the Commons. At one level it is just a dispute about a narrow procedural amendment, but of course this has become a contest about whether or not parliament should be willing to contemplate a no-deal Brexit.
Based on how MPs voted last week, the government should have a decent chance of winning. But last night Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt reported that some pro-European cabinet ministers were considering resigning so that they could vote against the government.Based on how MPs voted last week, the government should have a decent chance of winning. But last night Newsnight’s Nicholas Watt reported that some pro-European cabinet ministers were considering resigning so that they could vote against the government.
Breaking: I have learnt that some cabinet ministers are giving serious consideration to resigning tomorrow to vote in favour of preventing the next prime minister from suspending parliament. No final decisions made yet on resignations. More at 22:30 on Newsnight@BBCNewsnightBreaking: I have learnt that some cabinet ministers are giving serious consideration to resigning tomorrow to vote in favour of preventing the next prime minister from suspending parliament. No final decisions made yet on resignations. More at 22:30 on Newsnight@BBCNewsnight
“It would be to support a possible vote in parliament that would effectively block the next prime minister from suspending parliament” – our political editor Nick Watt on rumours that major ministers may decide to resign tomorrow@nicholaswatt | #newsnight pic.twitter.com/9vnH9MV5ld“It would be to support a possible vote in parliament that would effectively block the next prime minister from suspending parliament” – our political editor Nick Watt on rumours that major ministers may decide to resign tomorrow@nicholaswatt | #newsnight pic.twitter.com/9vnH9MV5ld
And this morning David Gauke, the justice secretary, refused to rule out rebelling over this issue. He did not say he definitely would resign (and on many occasions pro-Europeans ministers have threatened to quit over Brexit only to back down at the last minute). But instead of just saying that he would support the government, he told the Today programme that he had not yet made up his mind. This is what he said when asked how he would vote:And this morning David Gauke, the justice secretary, refused to rule out rebelling over this issue. He did not say he definitely would resign (and on many occasions pro-Europeans ministers have threatened to quit over Brexit only to back down at the last minute). But instead of just saying that he would support the government, he told the Today programme that he had not yet made up his mind. This is what he said when asked how he would vote:
I will have to see what the precise amendments are and we’re hearing what the whipping will be and the arguments for that so I’m not in a position to necessarily say.I will have to see what the precise amendments are and we’re hearing what the whipping will be and the arguments for that so I’m not in a position to necessarily say.
But what I would say is the idea that parliament should be suspended in October - a period where it always sits, parliament has always in recent years sat at that time of year - at a crucial point in this country’s history, if you like, that parliament should not be able to sit, should not be able to express its opinion and its will, I think would be outrageous.But what I would say is the idea that parliament should be suspended in October - a period where it always sits, parliament has always in recent years sat at that time of year - at a crucial point in this country’s history, if you like, that parliament should not be able to sit, should not be able to express its opinion and its will, I think would be outrageous.
I very much doubt that any prime minister would in fact suspend parliament in these circumstances but I can understand the concerns that a lot of my colleagues have.I very much doubt that any prime minister would in fact suspend parliament in these circumstances but I can understand the concerns that a lot of my colleagues have.
Gauke, of course, expects to be sacked by the new prime minister (almost certainly Boris Johnson) next week. So he does not really have much to lose.Gauke, of course, expects to be sacked by the new prime minister (almost certainly Boris Johnson) next week. So he does not really have much to lose.
I will be covering the debate in full.I will be covering the debate in full.
Here is the agenda for the day.Here is the agenda for the day.
9.30am: David Gauke, the justice secretary, gives a speech on sentencing.9.30am: David Gauke, the justice secretary, gives a speech on sentencing.
9.30am: Crime figures for England and Wales are published.9.30am: Crime figures for England and Wales are published.
9.30am: The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes is Fiscal Risks Report.9.30am: The Office for Budget Responsibility publishes is Fiscal Risks Report.
10am: The Alternative Arrangements Commission, an independent body set up to look for alternatives to the Northern Ireland backstop, publishes its final report.10am: The Alternative Arrangements Commission, an independent body set up to look for alternatives to the Northern Ireland backstop, publishes its final report.
Around 12pm: MPs debate the Northern Ireland (executive formation) bill. As Jessica Elgot reports, the government will seek to overturn a vote in the Lords adding an amendment to the bill intended to make it harder for the next PM to prorogue parliament in the autumn to facilitate a no-deal Brexit.Around 12pm: MPs debate the Northern Ireland (executive formation) bill. As Jessica Elgot reports, the government will seek to overturn a vote in the Lords adding an amendment to the bill intended to make it harder for the next PM to prorogue parliament in the autumn to facilitate a no-deal Brexit.
As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up.As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up.
You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads.
If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow.
I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone.
If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.If you want to attract my attention quickly, it is probably better to use Twitter.