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You can find the current article at its original source at https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/jul/22/boris-johnson-avoid-irish-backstop-fly-moon
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| Boris Johnson is as likely to avoid an Irish backstop as fly to the moon | Boris Johnson is as likely to avoid an Irish backstop as fly to the moon |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| Build that wall! Build that wall! So Donald Trump’s fans roared their support for his xenophobic rants. So scream fans of Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit. He wants walls against the EU in place by 31 October. But he has no more idea than Trump about how to erect them. This is despite having been foreign secretary and with a former Brexit negotiator, Dominic Raab, at his side. | Build that wall! Build that wall! So Donald Trump’s fans roared their support for his xenophobic rants. So scream fans of Boris Johnson’s no-deal Brexit. He wants walls against the EU in place by 31 October. But he has no more idea than Trump about how to erect them. This is despite having been foreign secretary and with a former Brexit negotiator, Dominic Raab, at his side. |
| You cannot be outside a customs union and not have a border. You cannot have friction and no friction. A bureaucratic mountain of technology may withdraw the border some miles back, but somewhere there must be tariffs, payments, forms, regulation and inspection. A 40% tariff on a shipment of lamb is a barrier, wherever it gets levied. A chlorinated chicken inspection is a wall, wherever it is done. | You cannot be outside a customs union and not have a border. You cannot have friction and no friction. A bureaucratic mountain of technology may withdraw the border some miles back, but somewhere there must be tariffs, payments, forms, regulation and inspection. A 40% tariff on a shipment of lamb is a barrier, wherever it gets levied. A chlorinated chicken inspection is a wall, wherever it is done. |
| There is no majority anywhere, except in Johnson’s scrambled brain, for a no-deal Brexit | There is no majority anywhere, except in Johnson’s scrambled brain, for a no-deal Brexit |
| In the Telegraph today, the only answer Johnson could give to this paradox is casually to refer to the moon. If the Apollo mission, he writes, “could use hand-knitted computer codes to make a frictionless re-entry to the Earth’s atmosphere, we can solve the problem of frictionless trade at the Northern Ireland border”. This trivialises what, for thousands of businesses, is now misery and, in the case of farmers, bankruptcy. | In the Telegraph today, the only answer Johnson could give to this paradox is casually to refer to the moon. If the Apollo mission, he writes, “could use hand-knitted computer codes to make a frictionless re-entry to the Earth’s atmosphere, we can solve the problem of frictionless trade at the Northern Ireland border”. This trivialises what, for thousands of businesses, is now misery and, in the case of farmers, bankruptcy. |
| Variously described as an insurance policy or safety net, the backstop is a device in the Withdrawal Agreement intended to ensure that there will not be a hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland, even if no formal deal can be reached on trade and security arrangements. | |
| It would mean that if there were no workable agreement on such matters, Northern Ireland would stay in the customs union and much of the single market, guaranteeing a friction-free border with the Republic. This would keep the Good Friday agreement intact. | |
| Both the UK and EU signed up to the basic idea in December 2017 as part of the initial Brexit deal, but there have been disagreements since on how it would work. | |
| The DUP have objected to it, as it potentially treats Northern Ireland differently from the rest of the UK, creating a customs divide in the Irish sea, which is anathema to the unionist party. | |
| Hardline Tory Eurosceptics also object to it, as they perceive it to be a trap that could potentially lock the UK into the EU's customs union permanently if the UK & EU cannot seal a free trade agreement. That would prevent the country from doing its own free trade deals with nations outside the bloc. | |
| Joint interpretative instrument | |
| A legal add-on to the withdrawal agreement was given to Theresa May in January 2019 to try and get her deal through the UK parliament. It gives legal force to a letter from Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk, the presidents of the commission and council. This stated the EU’s intention to negotiate an alternative to the backstop so it would not be triggered, or, if it was triggered, to get out of it as quickly as possible. | |
| Unilateral statement from the UK | |
| This set out the British position that, if the backstop was to become permanent and talks on an alternative were going nowhere, the UK believes it would be able to exit the arrangement. | |
| Additional language in political declaration | |
| This emphasises the urgency felt on both sides to negotiate an alternative to the backstop, and flesh out what a technological fix would look like. However, it failed to persuade the attorney general, Geoffrey Cox, who said that while it 'reduces the risk' of the UK being trapped in a backstop indefinitely, it does not remove it. | |
| During their campaigns to become prime minister, both Conservative party leadership contenders Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt appear to have declared the Northern Ireland backstop “dead”, and promised to throw it out of any deal they negotiate with the EU. The EU has repeatedly stated that it will not re-open the Withdrawal Agreement for re-negotiation. | |
| Daniel Boffey, Martin Belam and Peter Walker | |
| While no-deal Brexit may merely cause severe and costly disruption at Dover and other sea- and airports, the open roads of Northern Ireland cannot be so policed. No deal will mean anarchy, or state-sponsored banditry. Johnson continues to claim he can avoid a “hard Irish border”. But he still wants a hard border with the EU, so where is it to be? It can only be down the Irish Sea. Bang goes whatever is left of Johnson’s commons majority. | |
| There is no majority anywhere, except in Johnson’s scrambled brain, for a no-deal Brexit. As Whitehall officials – if not men in white coats – gather round him in the coming weeks, they will tell him a brutal truth, political as much as administrative. He needs a deal badly, and the only route to that deal is through Dublin. | There is no majority anywhere, except in Johnson’s scrambled brain, for a no-deal Brexit. As Whitehall officials – if not men in white coats – gather round him in the coming weeks, they will tell him a brutal truth, political as much as administrative. He needs a deal badly, and the only route to that deal is through Dublin. |
| Liam Fox wants children to learn about global trade. But it’s Brexiters who need the lessons | Jonathan Lis | Liam Fox wants children to learn about global trade. But it’s Brexiters who need the lessons | Jonathan Lis |
| Johnson must go at once to Dublin and promise its prime minister, Leo Varadkar, to safeguard an open Irish border, which means a de facto customs union, for the time being. That is the only hope of Ireland inducing the EU27 to unlock some cosmetic redrafting of the withdrawal agreement – without which they will simply not play ball. Whatever humble pie he must swallow, Johnson must return from Dublin with a deal. So much for “taking back control”. | Johnson must go at once to Dublin and promise its prime minister, Leo Varadkar, to safeguard an open Irish border, which means a de facto customs union, for the time being. That is the only hope of Ireland inducing the EU27 to unlock some cosmetic redrafting of the withdrawal agreement – without which they will simply not play ball. Whatever humble pie he must swallow, Johnson must return from Dublin with a deal. So much for “taking back control”. |
| Trade is not about control but about power. The UK has little power against its bigger neighbour. If it wanted power it should have stayed in the EU, or at the very least in Thatcher’s single market. Johnson sacrificed such power to outflank his rivals for the leadership. He must now pay the price for that chicanery. An awful awakening beckons. If Johnson cannot get a Northern Ireland deal he faces parliamentary armageddon. Perhaps he can fly to the moon. | Trade is not about control but about power. The UK has little power against its bigger neighbour. If it wanted power it should have stayed in the EU, or at the very least in Thatcher’s single market. Johnson sacrificed such power to outflank his rivals for the leadership. He must now pay the price for that chicanery. An awful awakening beckons. If Johnson cannot get a Northern Ireland deal he faces parliamentary armageddon. Perhaps he can fly to the moon. |
| • Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist | • Simon Jenkins is a Guardian columnist |
| Boris Johnson | Boris Johnson |
| First thoughts | First thoughts |
| Brexit | Brexit |
| Ireland | Ireland |
| Northern Ireland | Northern Ireland |
| European Union | European Union |
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