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| Boris Johnson holds talks in Belfast as Sinn Féin says Brexit boosts case for united Ireland - live news | Boris Johnson holds talks in Belfast as Sinn Féin says Brexit boosts case for united Ireland - live news |
| (32 minutes later) | |
| In her Today programme interview this morning Mary Lou McDonald, Sinn Fein’s president, said she has been asking the UK government to explain what needs to happen for another referendum to take place in Northern Ireland on joining a united Ireland. (See 9.29am.) The last one was in 1973. | |
| This Institute for Government briefing sets out some possible criteria that might apply. | |
| As part of the Good Friday Agreement, an explicit provision for holding a Northern Ireland border poll was made in UK law. The Northern Ireland Act 1998 states that “if at any time it appears likely to him that a majority of those voting would express a wish that Northern Ireland should cease to be part of the United Kingdom and form part of a united Ireland”, the secretary of state shall make an order in council enabling a border poll. | |
| It is not clear exactly what would satisfy this requirement. The Constitution Unit suggests that a consistent majority in opinion polls, a Catholic majority in a census, a nationalist majority in the Northern Ireland assembly, or a vote by a majority in the assembly could all be considered evidence of majority support for a united Ireland. However, the secretary of state must ultimately decide whether the condition has been met. | |
| The IfG note also includes this chart on polling that undermines McDonald’s claim that support for Irish reunification in the north is rising. | |
| The Scottish Conservatives have said they will not “deal with hypotheticals” after the SNP challenged Ruth Davidson to give “a cast-iron guarantee” that her MPs will vote to block a no-deal Brexit. | |
| The SNP’s Westminster leader Ian Blackford has written to Davidson, pointing to suggestions that her opposition to a no deal Brexit is “little more than meaningless empty rhetoric ...a cynical PR exercise designed to distance you from Boris Johnson, in the knowledge that the Tory party is tanking in the polls in Scotland and came fourth place in the European elections on just 11%”. | |
| The letter comes after Boris Johnson visited Scotland on Monday, meeting both first minister Nicola Sturgeon and Davidson, who warned the prime minister on the eve of his visit that she could not support a no deal Brexit. The read-out from their meeting was resolutely reassured, saying that she backed his Brexit strategy “wholeheartedly”. The meeting was, the Guardian understands, overwhelming positive, and covered a lot of ground in terms of how Westminster can best serve Scotland. | |
| Responding to Blackford’s letter, a Scottish Conservatives spokesman said: | |
| We’re not going to jump ahead 15 stages or deal with hypotheticals – everyone’s focus is getting a deal done with the EU that can get through parliament. | |
| But the fact remains that Davidson has quite a circle to square. Should Johnson call a general election on a platform of no deal, how will she stand, given her own stated opposition and the knowledge that – as Blackford points out – her party in Scotland has lost significant numbers of votes to the Brexit party? Will she call on her own MPs to vote against the prime minister? And how does she sell Johnson and his so-called ‘war cabinet’ to those centre right voters who signed up to her re-framing on the Scottish Tories? | |
| The economic shock of a disorderly Brexit in Ireland would employment shrink by 34,000 jobs, the country’s central bank has said. | The economic shock of a disorderly Brexit in Ireland would employment shrink by 34,000 jobs, the country’s central bank has said. |
| In its quarterly bulletin (pdf) it says GDP growth for 2019 would be reduced from 4.9% to 4.5% if there was a crash out on 31 October, but the country would suffer a massive hit 2020 with growth falling from 4.1 to 0.7 per cent.Household and business spending would fall while exports would fall “due to an immediate and large reduction in demand from the UK and the fall in sterling”.“As a result, by the end of 2020 our estimates suggest that there would be around 34,000 fewer jobs in the economy compared to the level of employment that could be realised in a no-Brexit scenario,” it says. | In its quarterly bulletin (pdf) it says GDP growth for 2019 would be reduced from 4.9% to 4.5% if there was a crash out on 31 October, but the country would suffer a massive hit 2020 with growth falling from 4.1 to 0.7 per cent.Household and business spending would fall while exports would fall “due to an immediate and large reduction in demand from the UK and the fall in sterling”.“As a result, by the end of 2020 our estimates suggest that there would be around 34,000 fewer jobs in the economy compared to the level of employment that could be realised in a no-Brexit scenario,” it says. |
| However it warns that “there is an unavoidably high degree of uncertainty” about the modelling of its forecasts because Brexit is without precedent. | However it warns that “there is an unavoidably high degree of uncertainty” about the modelling of its forecasts because Brexit is without precedent. |
| Boris Johnson is in Northern Ireland this morning where he has just started what will be a series of talks with the five main parties. The last time he was here, for a hustings during the Tory leadership contest, he sounded as if he knew almost nothing about the reasons for the suspension of the power-sharing executive. He should be better informed by lunchtime. We’ll find out, because he is expected to address the media later. | Boris Johnson is in Northern Ireland this morning where he has just started what will be a series of talks with the five main parties. The last time he was here, for a hustings during the Tory leadership contest, he sounded as if he knew almost nothing about the reasons for the suspension of the power-sharing executive. He should be better informed by lunchtime. We’ll find out, because he is expected to address the media later. |
| Johnson himself and others have also been speaking to the media ahead of the talks, at Stormont and on the usual morning programmes. Here are some of the points they have been making. | Johnson himself and others have also been speaking to the media ahead of the talks, at Stormont and on the usual morning programmes. Here are some of the points they have been making. |
| Johnson claimed that the UK government will be bound by “complete impartiality” as it oversees talks designed to get the power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland up and running again. The DUP is propping up the Conservative government at Westminster through the confidence and supply arrangement, and last night Johnson had a private dinner with DUP leaders. But the government is also supposed to be neutral as it mediates between DUP and Sinn Fein on restoring power-sharing. Asked how impartial he would be in the light of the dinner with the DUP last night, Johnson said as he arrived at Stormont this morning: | Johnson claimed that the UK government will be bound by “complete impartiality” as it oversees talks designed to get the power-sharing executive in Northern Ireland up and running again. The DUP is propping up the Conservative government at Westminster through the confidence and supply arrangement, and last night Johnson had a private dinner with DUP leaders. But the government is also supposed to be neutral as it mediates between DUP and Sinn Fein on restoring power-sharing. Asked how impartial he would be in the light of the dinner with the DUP last night, Johnson said as he arrived at Stormont this morning: |
| It’s all there in the Good Friday agreement. We believe in complete impartiality and that’s what we are going to observe. | It’s all there in the Good Friday agreement. We believe in complete impartiality and that’s what we are going to observe. |
| He also said he would be focusing on getting the executive functioning again. | He also said he would be focusing on getting the executive functioning again. |
| Clearly the people in Northern Ireland have been without a government, without Stormont, for two years and six months so my prime focus this morning is to do everything I can to help that get up and running again because I think that’s profoundly in the interests of people here, of all the citizens here in Northern Ireland. | Clearly the people in Northern Ireland have been without a government, without Stormont, for two years and six months so my prime focus this morning is to do everything I can to help that get up and running again because I think that’s profoundly in the interests of people here, of all the citizens here in Northern Ireland. |
| He said he attached “huge importance to the letter, spirit of the Belfast/ Good Friday agreement and will be insisting on that”. He was speaking in the context of Brexit, and addressing claims that a no deal Brexit would undermine the Good Friday agreement. | He said he attached “huge importance to the letter, spirit of the Belfast/ Good Friday agreement and will be insisting on that”. He was speaking in the context of Brexit, and addressing claims that a no deal Brexit would undermine the Good Friday agreement. |
| Mary Lou McDonald, the Sinn Fein president, said that Brexit changes the terms of debate in Northern Ireland, boosting the case for Irish reunification. Speaking on the Today programme, she said: | Mary Lou McDonald, the Sinn Fein president, said that Brexit changes the terms of debate in Northern Ireland, boosting the case for Irish reunification. Speaking on the Today programme, she said: |
| Traditionally the argument and the discourse [in Northern Ireland] has been between green and orange, between Irishness and Britishness. But Brexit changed that and added a new dimension, a critical dimension, which is European or not? Inside the European Union or not? And for the purposes of the north of Ireland, a very direct choice, economically, socially, politically, as to whether or not this part of the island wishes to become a sort of backwater, marooned somewhere between the Tories in Number 10 and the very, very destructive agenda of the DUP. | Traditionally the argument and the discourse [in Northern Ireland] has been between green and orange, between Irishness and Britishness. But Brexit changed that and added a new dimension, a critical dimension, which is European or not? Inside the European Union or not? And for the purposes of the north of Ireland, a very direct choice, economically, socially, politically, as to whether or not this part of the island wishes to become a sort of backwater, marooned somewhere between the Tories in Number 10 and the very, very destructive agenda of the DUP. |
| She said there were now unionists willing to consider the case for reunification following Brexit. She said: | She said there were now unionists willing to consider the case for reunification following Brexit. She said: |
| For everybody across society, Brexit has raised fundamental questions around the wisdom and the sustainability of the partition of our island which we have lived with now since the 1920s ... It’s changed the entire political dynamic, it has changed the parameters of the conversation. In the course of the debate that we will have about constitutional change, lots of people for whom a united Ireland would still not be their first preference, who would still have a strong attachment to union, even they now are willing and eager to have the conversation [about Irish reunification]. | For everybody across society, Brexit has raised fundamental questions around the wisdom and the sustainability of the partition of our island which we have lived with now since the 1920s ... It’s changed the entire political dynamic, it has changed the parameters of the conversation. In the course of the debate that we will have about constitutional change, lots of people for whom a united Ireland would still not be their first preference, who would still have a strong attachment to union, even they now are willing and eager to have the conversation [about Irish reunification]. |
| She said it would be “scandalous” to refuse Northern Ireland a referendum on joining a united Ireland after a no deal Brexit. | She said it would be “scandalous” to refuse Northern Ireland a referendum on joining a united Ireland after a no deal Brexit. |
| In the event of a hard Brexit and a crash Brexit, I don’t know for the life of me how anybody could sustain an argument that things remain the same ... | In the event of a hard Brexit and a crash Brexit, I don’t know for the life of me how anybody could sustain an argument that things remain the same ... |
| I don’t know how Britain could crash this part of Ireland out of the EU with all of the attendant harm and damage economically and politically and, with a straight face, suggest to any of us who live on this island that we should not be given the democratic opportunity as per the Good Friday agreement to decide our future. I think that would be quite scandalous. | I don’t know how Britain could crash this part of Ireland out of the EU with all of the attendant harm and damage economically and politically and, with a straight face, suggest to any of us who live on this island that we should not be given the democratic opportunity as per the Good Friday agreement to decide our future. I think that would be quite scandalous. |
| She said she thought there were already grounds for holding a referendum in the north. Under the terms of the Good Friday agreement, the UK government is obliged to hold a referendum, or “border poll”, if at any time it seems “likely” that a majority in the north would vote to form part of a united Ireland. McDonald said: | She said she thought there were already grounds for holding a referendum in the north. Under the terms of the Good Friday agreement, the UK government is obliged to hold a referendum, or “border poll”, if at any time it seems “likely” that a majority in the north would vote to form part of a united Ireland. McDonald said: |
| This is a matter that I had explored at great length since I became the leader of Sinn Fein with Theresa May and with Karen Bradley [the former Northern Ireland secretary]. And I raised this matter with Julian Smith [the new Northern Ireland secretary] when I met him the other day. I think it’s very important that the British system sets out very clearly for all of us what it and they would understand to be the point of threshold, the trigger point at which a border poll or a referendum would be called ... | This is a matter that I had explored at great length since I became the leader of Sinn Fein with Theresa May and with Karen Bradley [the former Northern Ireland secretary]. And I raised this matter with Julian Smith [the new Northern Ireland secretary] when I met him the other day. I think it’s very important that the British system sets out very clearly for all of us what it and they would understand to be the point of threshold, the trigger point at which a border poll or a referendum would be called ... |
| I think some of the thresholds have been met. I mean, this northern state is built on the assumption of a perpetual unionist majority. That political majority has been lost in three successive elections ... The demographic patterns have been well discussed and well aired and they are moving in on direction. That for me is not the most compelling of arguments but it is a reality. | I think some of the thresholds have been met. I mean, this northern state is built on the assumption of a perpetual unionist majority. That political majority has been lost in three successive elections ... The demographic patterns have been well discussed and well aired and they are moving in on direction. That for me is not the most compelling of arguments but it is a reality. |
| Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, said that her party’s confidence and supply arrangement with the Tories was still in place. On the subject of continuing it, she told Sky News it was not just a matter of money. For example, she said her party particularly welcomed Johnson’s decision to appoint a veterans minister and to set up an office for veterans’ affairs because, she said, Northern Ireland has more people in the armed forces per head of population than anywhere else in the UK. | Arlene Foster, the DUP leader, said that her party’s confidence and supply arrangement with the Tories was still in place. On the subject of continuing it, she told Sky News it was not just a matter of money. For example, she said her party particularly welcomed Johnson’s decision to appoint a veterans minister and to set up an office for veterans’ affairs because, she said, Northern Ireland has more people in the armed forces per head of population than anywhere else in the UK. |
| Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP’s chief whip, told the Today programme he thought the risks of a no deal Brexit were now “significant”. Asked about claims this could lead 40,000 jobs being lost in Northern Ireland, he said that estimate was at the “very high end of the scale”. | Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP’s chief whip, told the Today programme he thought the risks of a no deal Brexit were now “significant”. Asked about claims this could lead 40,000 jobs being lost in Northern Ireland, he said that estimate was at the “very high end of the scale”. |
| As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up. | As usual, I will be covering breaking political news as it happens, as well as bringing you the best reaction, comment and analysis from the web. I plan to publish a summary when I wrap up. |
| You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. | You can read all the latest Guardian politics articles here. Here is the Politico Europe roundup of this morning’s political news. And here is the PoliticsHome list of today’s top 10 must-reads. |
| If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. | If you want to follow me or contact me on Twitter, I’m on @AndrewSparrow. |
| I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. | I try to monitor the comments below the line (BTL) but it is impossible to read them all. If you have a direct question, do include “Andrew” in it somewhere and I’m more likely to find it. I do try to answer questions, and if they are of general interest, I will post the question and reply above the line (ATL), although I can’t promise to do this for everyone. |
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