'Boris Johnson's UK tour: did he show he could save the union?' diff viewer (0/1)

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Boris Johnson's UK tour: did he show he could save the union?	Boris Johnson's UK tour: did he show he could save the union?
2019-08-01 17:38:16 UTC	2019-08-01 18:10:15 UTC (32 minutes later)
Boris Johnson pledged his commitment to the “awesome foursome” of the UK when he was elected Conservative leader, and has since embarked on a whistlestop tour taking in the north of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.	Boris Johnson pledged his commitment to the “awesome foursome” of the UK when he was elected Conservative leader, and has since embarked on a whistlestop tour taking in the north of England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. But how successful were the trips? Visits that involved keeping the prime minister away from booing protesters and, in some cases, journalists? Have they allayed fears that Johnson’s hardline Brexit strategy and the continuation of the union could be mutually exclusive?
But how successful were the visits – which involved keeping the prime minister away from booing protesters and, in some cases, journalists? Have they allayed fears that Johnson’s hardline Brexit strategy and the continuation of the union may be mutually exclusive?
Scotland	Scotland
Johnson’s visit to Scotland began behind the razor wire at Faslane nuclear ~~base.~~ Downing Street may have been hoping that a photo op on a submarine would project strength and solidarity, but that was unlikely to chime with the 50% of Scots ~~who~~ – along with the Scottish ~~government~~ – oppose the renewal of Trident.	Johnson’s visit to Scotland began behind the razor wire at Faslane nuclear base, at Gare Loch, less than 30 miles from Glasgow. Downing Street may have been hoping that a photo op on a submarine would project strength and solidarity, but that was unlikely to chime with the 50% of Scots who, along with the Scottish government, oppose the renewal of Trident.
During the Tory leadership campaign, a Panelbase poll found support for independence would jump to 53% if Johnson became prime minister, prompting senior Scottish Tories to warn his election would be a “catastrophe” for the union.	During the Tory leadership campaign, a Panelbase poll found support for independence would jump to 53% if Johnson became prime minister, prompting senior Scottish Tories to warn his election would be a “catastrophe” for the union.
On the eve of ~~his~~ visit, the Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, issued a defiant challenge to ~~Johnson,~~ pledging to oppose a no-deal Brexit. She was said to be livid that he had ignored her advice in sacking her ally David ~~Mundell~~ as Scottish secretary.	On the eve of Johnson’s visit, the Scottish Conservative leader, Ruth Davidson, issued a defiant challenge to him, pledging to oppose a no-deal Brexit. She was said to be livid that he had ignored her advice in sacking her ally David Mundell, who was the Scottish secretary.
The first task of any new PM involves rewarding some loyal allies and disappointing more. Several Johnson loyalists have had their eye on the post of chancellor, but only one can do it. A complete clearout of May’s remain-minded ministers provided plenty of opportunity to reward the Brexit believers though.	The first task of any new PM involves rewarding some loyal allies and disappointing more. Several Johnson loyalists have had their eye on the post of chancellor, but only one can do it. A complete clearout of May’s remain-minded ministers provided plenty of opportunity to reward the Brexit believers though.
The issue that will define a Johnson premiership. He has promised to rapidly renegotiate almost all of May’s departure deal, ditching the Irish backstop border guarantee policy – something that would seem a huge task over any timescale, let alone little more than 12 weeks, a fair proportion of which is taken up by a summer break. If this fails, he will be set on a no-deal departure for 31 October, and a likely huge clash with MPs.	The issue that will define a Johnson premiership. He has promised to rapidly renegotiate almost all of May’s departure deal, ditching the Irish backstop border guarantee policy – something that would seem a huge task over any timescale, let alone little more than 12 weeks, a fair proportion of which is taken up by a summer break. If this fails, he will be set on a no-deal departure for 31 October, and a likely huge clash with MPs.
If Brexit wasn’t enough, a new Johnson government must immediately take steps to make sure he doesn’t begin his time in No 10 with a slide into war. The situation in the gulf is complex, fast-moving and hugely dangerous. Johnson did not cover himself in glory as foreign secretary, especially over Iran. It will be his task to prove he has learned.	If Brexit wasn’t enough, a new Johnson government must immediately take steps to make sure he doesn’t begin his time in No 10 with a slide into war. The situation in the gulf is complex, fast-moving and hugely dangerous. Johnson did not cover himself in glory as foreign secretary, especially over Iran. It will be his task to prove he has learned.
Johnson will start as PM with a working Commons majority of four, thanks to the DUP, but within weeks it is likely to be down to three if as expected the Liberal Democrats win in the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection. If this wasn’t tricky enough, a small but significant section of Tory MPs openly detest Johnson, and will not want to help him out - and with his cabinet sackings, the ‘Gaukward squad’ of former senior cabinet members set on blocking a no-deal Brexit swelled in ranks.	Johnson will start as PM with a working Commons majority of four, thanks to the DUP, but within weeks it is likely to be down to three if as expected the Liberal Democrats win in the Brecon and Radnorshire byelection. If this wasn’t tricky enough, a small but significant section of Tory MPs openly detest Johnson, and will not want to help him out - and with his cabinet sackings, the ‘Gaukward squad’ of former senior cabinet members set on blocking a no-deal Brexit swelled in ranks.
Such was the fiscal largesse on display from both Johnson and Jeremy Hunt during the hustings process that much as he will seek to kick any decisions towards an autumn budget, voters – especially Tory members – will be expecting both tax cuts and more spending on areas such as education and the police.	Such was the fiscal largesse on display from both Johnson and Jeremy Hunt during the hustings process that much as he will seek to kick any decisions towards an autumn budget, voters – especially Tory members – will be expecting both tax cuts and more spending on areas such as education and the police.
This might sound glib, but there is a lot to consider – during the three-plus years of Brexit introversion May’s government failed to properly grasp any of a series of long-term, pressing national problems: the crisis in social care; the future of the NHS; a climate emergency; the increasingly insecure future of work; a broken housing market; rampant poverty, including among many working people. This is a huge workload for any new administration.	This might sound glib, but there is a lot to consider – during the three-plus years of Brexit introversion May’s government failed to properly grasp any of a series of long-term, pressing national problems: the crisis in social care; the future of the NHS; a climate emergency; the increasingly insecure future of work; a broken housing market; rampant poverty, including among many working people. This is a huge workload for any new administration.
Critics might say this is Johnson’s single biggest challenge. The leadership process has shown that while he endlessly harked back to supposed successes as London mayor – an often ceremonial role with relatively few powers – Johnson was notably quieter about his period as foreign secretary.	Critics might say this is Johnson’s single biggest challenge. The leadership process has shown that while he endlessly harked back to supposed successes as London mayor – an often ceremonial role with relatively few powers – Johnson was notably quieter about his period as foreign secretary.
Being prime minister is like the latter, to a factor of 10 – a never-ending succession of red boxes containing vital documents, of urgent briefings, of a whole system hanging on your decisions. Johnson has a tendency to ignore advice, pluck statistics out of the air and rely on sudden, cheap glibness. Curbing these long habits will be a daily struggle - his adopting the acronym 'Dude' in his victory speech shows just how hard it is for him.	Being prime minister is like the latter, to a factor of 10 – a never-ending succession of red boxes containing vital documents, of urgent briefings, of a whole system hanging on your decisions. Johnson has a tendency to ignore advice, pluck statistics out of the air and rely on sudden, cheap glibness. Curbing these long habits will be a daily struggle - his adopting the acronym 'Dude' in his victory speech shows just how hard it is for him.
Peter Walker Political correspondent	Peter Walker Political correspondent
The more positive noises from Davidson’s ~~camp~~ after their meeting on ~~Monday~~ suggest the pair have struck an uneasy accord. But Davidson has ~~build~~ her Conservative revival in Scotland on her fierce defence of the ~~union,~~ ~~and~~ ~~how~~ does she sell Johnson and his “war cabinet” to those centrist voters who signed up to her more liberal reframing of the Scottish Tories?	The more positive noises from Davidson’s camp, after their meeting on Monday, suggest the pair have struck an uneasy accord. But Davidson has built her Conservative revival in Scotland upon her fierce defence of the union. How does she sell Johnson and his “war cabinet” to those centrist voters who signed up to her more liberal reframing of the Scottish Tories?
Johnson is still causing tensions within the Scottish party, with Davidson’s previous leadership ~~rival~~ Murdo ~~Fraser~~ floating the idea on Wednesday of a breakaway Scottish Conservative party as the only way to beat the nationalists at Holyrood.	Johnson is still causing tensions within the Scottish party, with Davidson’s previous leadership rival, Murdo Fraser, floating the idea on Wednesday of a breakaway Scottish Conservative party as the only way to beat the nationalists at Holyrood.
The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said she had enjoyed a “lively” exchange of views with the prime minister when they met later on Monday at Bute ~~House,~~ ~~but~~ the optics of the visit were far from ideal: Johnson greeted by booing protesters, leaving by the back door, and the much-shared clip of Sturgeon instinctively batting away his hand as he attempted to usher her into her own residence.	The first minister, Nicola Sturgeon, said she had enjoyed a “lively” exchange of views with the prime minister when they met later on Monday at Bute House. But the optics of the visit were far from ideal: Johnson greeted by booing protesters, leaving by the back door, and the much-shared clip of Sturgeon instinctively batting away his hand as he attempted to usher her into her own residence.
In 2016, 62% of Scottish voters chose to remain in the EU, and that percentage has grown since. No polling on support for Scottish independence since Johnson became prime minister has been released yet, but it is fair to assume that Scottish National party strategists are waiting eagerly to discover whether support for independence reveals a Boris bounce. LB	In 2016, 62% of Scottish voters chose to remain in the EU, and that percentage has grown since. No polling on support for Scottish independence since Johnson became prime minister has been released yet, but it is fair to assume that Scottish National party strategists are waiting eagerly to discover whether support for independence reveals a Boris bounce. LB
Wales	Wales
The prime minister’s visit to Wales on Tuesday did not go well. He was accused of keeping a distance from the Welsh media and avoiding the public, leaving more than 100 people waiting vainly in the rain for him in Brecon town centre.	The prime minister’s visit to Wales on Tuesday did not go well. He was accused of keeping a distance from the Welsh media and avoiding the public, leaving more than 100 people waiting vainly in the rain for him in Brecon town centre.
All of which plays into the hands of the Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru. Asked if Johnson might break up the union, the Plaid Cymru MP Liz Saville Roberts said: “He seems to be doing his best.”	All of which plays into the hands of the Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru. Asked if Johnson might break up the union, the Plaid Cymru MP Liz Saville Roberts said: “He seems to be doing his best.”
Saville Roberts said there was a sense of momentum in Wales regarding the idea of leaving the union. “I’ve never known anything like it,” she said.	Saville Roberts said there was a sense of momentum in Wales regarding the idea of leaving the union. “I’ve never known anything like it,” she said.
At the weekend an estimated 8,000 people marched through the north Wales town of Caernarfon as part of a rally for independence. Another march is planned for south Wales in September.	At the weekend an estimated 8,000 people marched through the north Wales town of Caernarfon as part of a rally for independence. Another march is planned for south Wales in September.
“It’s not just politicians speaking about it,” said Saville Roberts. “It’s people on the street. The real question they are asking is why is Westminster so intent on doing harm to our communities – if that’s the best they can do, might we not be better off governing ourselves?”	“It’s not just politicians speaking about it,” said Saville Roberts. “It’s people on the street. The real question they are asking is why is Westminster so intent on doing harm to our communities – if that’s the best they can do, might we not be better off governing ourselves?”
She said Johnson was seen as a public schoolboy with his own narrow set of friends and interests. She accepted the bare statistics suggest support for Welsh independence ~~remains~~ ~~low~~ – 7% according to a poll by ICM Unlimited in March. But Saville Roberts said more and more people were ~~“indy-curious.”~~	She said Johnson was seen as a public schoolboy with his own narrow set of friends and interests. She accepted that the bare statistics suggest support for Welsh independence remained low, at 7% according to a poll by ICM Unlimited in March. But Saville Roberts said more and more people were “indy-curious”.
Even before the PM’s ~~visit,~~ it had been an encouraging week for Welsh nationalism. Plaid was delighted by a YouGov poll for ITV/Cardiff University. Although it suggested a “Boris bounce” in Wales when it came to general election voting intentions, it also suggested Plaid, which has 10 seats in the Welsh assembly, could end up with 15 after the next election in 2021.	Even before the PM’s visit it had been an encouraging week for Welsh nationalism. Plaid was delighted by a YouGov poll for ITV/Cardiff University. Although it suggested a “Boris bounce” in Wales when it came to general election voting intentions, it also suggested Plaid, which has 10 seats in the Welsh assembly, could end up with 15 after the next election in 2021.
No wonder that the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, issued a dire warning that the union was more at risk today than at any time during his political lifetime.	No wonder that the Welsh first minister, Mark Drakeford, issued a dire warning that the union was more at risk today than at any time during his political lifetime.
He said: “The prime minister needs to think about the future of the United Kingdom in a genuinely serious way. Just a few more choruses of Rule Britannia and an extra supply of union jacks is not going to cut it.” SM	He said: “The prime minister needs to think about the future of the United Kingdom in a genuinely serious way. Just a few more choruses of Rule Britannia and an extra supply of union jacks is not going to cut it.” SM
Northern Ireland	Northern Ireland
The trip to Belfast on Wednesday was sold as the fourth leg of Johnson’s tour to strengthen the ties of the union, but in Northern Ireland it was always going to be largely about the Democratic Unionist party.	The trip to Belfast on Wednesday was sold as the fourth leg of Johnson’s tour to strengthen the ties of the union, but in Northern Ireland it was always going to be largely about the Democratic Unionist party.
The DUP had a slavishly good relationship with Theresa May following their confidence and supply deal with the Conservatives in 2017. But they were never on the same page in relation to the solution to the Irish border question and the threat to the union they felt her Brexit plans caused.	The DUP had a slavishly good relationship with Theresa May following their confidence and supply deal with the Conservatives in 2017. But they were never on the same page in relation to the solution to the Irish border question and the threat to the union they felt her Brexit plans caused.
Johnson reversed that at a stroke within hours of succeeding May with his demand for the abolition of the backstop as a pre-condition to new negotiations with the EU.	Johnson reversed that at a stroke within hours of succeeding May with his demand for the abolition of the backstop as a pre-condition to new negotiations with the EU.
In doing so he turbo-charged the relationship with the DUP, with ~~the~~ agreement that delivers the 10 DUP votes the Tory party needs for its wafer-thin majority expected to be officially renewed in the coming weeks.	In doing that he turbo-charged the relationship with the DUP, with an agreement that delivers the 10 DUP votes the Tory party needs for its wafer-thin majority expected to be officially renewed in the coming weeks.
~~The appointment of the former chief whip Julian Smith as the new Northern Ireland secretary, with whom the DUP has had almost a daily relationship, should also help keep the party ~~onside.~~~~	The appointment of the former chief whip Julian Smith as the new Northern Ireland secretary, with whom the DUP has had almost a daily relationship, should also help keep the party on-side.
After Johnson’s private dinner in Belfast with key DUP MPs including Nigel Dodds and Jeffrey Donaldson, the party’s leader, Arlene Foster, made it clear there was a meeting of minds with the new prime minister.	After Johnson’s private dinner in Belfast with key DUP MPs including Nigel Dodds and Jeffrey Donaldson, the party’s leader, Arlene Foster, made it clear there was a meeting of minds with the new prime minister.
Out was May’s hallmark caution and in was a united aim in seeing off the EU. She told how she and Johnson had discussed how a “very belligerent EU” ~~wants~~ to “break up the United Kingdom”.	Out was May’s hallmark caution and in was a united aim in seeing off the EU. She told how she and Johnson had discussed how a “very belligerent EU” wanted to “break up the United Kingdom”.
Foster and the DUP were already smarting over remarks made on Friday by the Irish taoiseach, Leo ~~Varadkar,~~ and were delighted to ~~have~~ a less emollient prime minister in town to fight their ~~corner~~	Foster and the DUP were already smarting over remarks made on Friday by the Irish taoiseach, Leo Varadkar; and they were delighted to have, in Johnson, a less emollient prime minister in town to fight their corner. Foster accused Varadkar of “project fear mark two” after he warned that a crash-out Brexit would “raise very serious questions about the future of Northern Ireland” in the union.