Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: Counting continues
Brecon and Radnorshire by-election: Lib Dems beat Conservatives
(32 minutes later)
Counting is under way in the Brecon and Radnorshire parliamentary by-election.
The Liberal Democrats have won a closely-fought Brecon and Radnorshire parliamentary by-election.
It is the first electoral test for new prime minister Boris Johnson.
Jane Dodds overturned an 8,038 majority by Conservative Chris Davies to win by 1,425 votes.
The election was triggered after Tory MP Chris Davies was unseated by a petition that followed his conviction for a false expenses claim.
Mr Davies stood again after being unseated by a petition that followed his conviction for a false expenses claim.
The turnout was 59.7%, down from 74.6% at the general election, but it is the highest for a by-election since Winchester in 1997.
Labour were beaten into the fourth place by The Brexit Party.
One Welsh Conservative source believed the Lib Dems had done enough to win while a senior Labour figure said a lost deposit was a possibility for the party, as voters switched tactically.
Ms Dodds, who is Welsh Lib Dem leader, said: "My very first act as your new MP when I get to Westminster will be to find Mr Boris Johnson, whereever he's hiding, and tell him to stop playing with the future of our community and rule out a no deal Brexit".
Mr Davies was selected to stand again while Plaid Cymru asked supporters to back the Lib Dems to "coalesce" support among Remain parties.
The Green Party also did not put up a candidate to "maximise the chances" of a candidate most likely to beat the Conservatives and the Brexit Party.
In the 2017 general election, Mr Davies, 51, won the seat with a majority of 8,038, with the Lib Dems in second place.
But he lost it after 19% of voters in the constituency petitioned for the by-election.
The government's working majority is two, including the confidence and supply partners. This will fall to one if the Conservatives lose.
The Lib Dem candidate is Jane Dodds, 55, the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrats.
She lives in the neighbouring constituency of Montgomeryshire and is a child-protection social worker.
Des Parkinson, 71, a retired police chief superintendent, is standing for the Brexit Party.
He told BBC Wales: "It looks as if we're running third at the moment. Coming third is what we thought would happen when we arrived here this evening."
Mr Parkinson said he was sure there had been a "Boris bounce over the last week or so" to benefit the Tories.
A Welsh Conservative source told BBC Wales: "I think the Lib Dems have done it - they have consistently more on every table".
A Lib Dem source told BBC Wales it was "about as close as we thought it was always going to be".
Brecon town councillor Tom Davies, a lawyer, is standing for Labour, who finished third at the last general election.
He said speaking to some of his party's voters, they felt it would be "safer to vote for the Lib Dems to make sure that Chris Davies did not get back in" but that this was tactical and they would switch back at a general election.
Caerphilly MP Wayne David said there had been tactical switches "on a significant scale" and a lost deposit was a possibility.
Polls closed at 22:00 BST and the result is expected some time around 03:00 BST on Friday.
Liz Phillips is the UKIP candidate while the Monster Raving Loony Party is also fielding a candidate.
Chris Wilkins, Theresa May's former director of strategy, told BBC Wales earlier: "I think at this stage of the evening it probably looks like a Liberal Democrat gain but maybe with a smaller majority than they would've hoped.
"That would allow the new prime minister to say that he has managed to get the Conservative vote up and squeeze the Brexit Party vote. If that's the result, there's something in there for everyone in that outcome."
Political analyst Prof Roger Awan-Scully, from Cardiff University, said: "Labour need to look very closely at this result. Everything points to not just tactical voting for the Lib Dems but also dissatisfaction with Jeremy Corbyn and [First Minister] Mark Drakeford".
